Gotta Good Three-Year-Old? It's Time To Test The Waters
By, William F. Reed

Trainers of serious contenders for the 128th Kentucky Derby on May 4 got a bit of encouraging news last Sunday, when Repent, the current Derby favorite, barely held off Easyfromthegitgo to win the Louisiana Derby (GII) in New Orleans. The winning margin was a nose, or, if you prefer, the length of a Bayou crawfish.

Had Repent blown away his field, he would have caused a lot of rival horsemen to gulp and get nervous. Instead, he revealed that he still has much to learn. New jockey Jerry Bailey, named to replace journeyman Tony D'Amico, almost lost the race by trying to teach Repent to switch his lead foreleg from right to left in the stretch.

"He would've won by two lengths if I'd just kept him on his right lead and not tried to teach him something," Bailey said. "But this is going to come into play somewhere down the line. Hopefully, after this, he'll figure it out."

Repent's trainer, Kenny McPeek, said the Louisiana Derby proved that the come-from-behind Repent "needs a healthy pace in front of him, that's a fact of life with closers." But it's also a fact of life in the Kentucky Derby that versatility is an essential quality. If the pace is too slow, the winner must be good enough to force it, or even take the lead.

Rarely does the winner get the trip of his dreams.

Now McPeek must turn his attention to the Mar. 16 Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream, where Harlan's Holiday, supposedly his No. 2 Derby horse, will try to finally beat Booklet, who has barely beaten him in two consecutive races. McPeek hopes that new jockey Edgar Prado, who also replaced D'Amico, will make a difference.

After the Florida Derby, most contenders will only get one more prep before their owners and trainers decide to bring them to Churchill Downs.

It's a far cry from the old days, when a horse like Calumet Farm's Citation, the 1948 Triple Crown winner, came into the Derby with seven 3-year-old races to his credit, including the Derby Trial the Tuesday before the Derby.

Since then, trainers have become increasingly cautious, running their Derby contenders fewer times and looking for more spacing between races.

That's why Keeneland eventually was forced to move its premier Derby prep, the Blue Grass Stakes (GI), from nine days to three weeks before the Derby.

One reason for this change in philosophy may be all the leading contenders who were sidelined by injury before the Derby in the 1980s and '90s. The list includes Protagonist, Lord Avie, Deputy Minister, Roving Boy, Devil's Bag, Tasso, Gilded Time, Dehere, Boston Harbor, and Anees.

But this year the connections of Johannesburg, unbeaten winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI), are carrying caution -- or maybe confidence -- to a new level. They've announced that the colt's only Derby prep race will be the seven-furlong Gladness Stakes (Gr. III) in Ireland.

In the American preps, the trainer's task is to put his Derby horse in the environment that gives him the best chance to win, and avoiding spots where the colt, or filly, might not be ready for the distance or the competition. Trainers such as D. Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito like to get their horses to Kentucky as soon as possible, all the better to get accustomed to the weather and the conditions at Churchill Downs.

But, of course, there are many different ways to win the Derby.

For example, the Derby was the first race outside California for 1986 winner Ferdinand and 1989 winner Sunday Silence. And last year, trainer John Ward, who lives next door to Keeneland, decided to run Monarchos in New York's Wood Memorial (GI) instead of the Blue Grass Stakes on the same day.

Ward's reasoning -- that jockey Jorge "Chop Chop" Chavez had the home-track advantage at Aqueduct and that Monarchos needed more experience traveling -- was second-guessed after Monarchos finished second to Congaree.

But the Wood, along with a non-traditional program of no workouts between the Wood and Derby, set up Monarchos perfectly to win the roses.

After Saturday's Florida Derby, the most important remaining Derby preps will be the Lane's End Spiral Stakes (GII) at Turfway Park on March 23; the Santa Anita Derby (GI) and Illinois Derby (GII) on April 6; the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Wood Memorial (GI) and Arkansas Derby (GII) on March 13; and the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (GII) on April 20 at Keeneland.

Except the Illinois Derby, which is being run before the Kentucky Derby for the first time, each has produced at least one Kentucky Derby winner in the last 10 years. As the calendar becomes every trainer's worst enemy, they'll finally have to decide which prep best suits the horse's style and the trainer's game plan.

After the Louisiana Derby, McPeek said he would keep his options open with Repent. His final Derby prep race could come in the Illinois Derby, the Blue Grass or the Wood. A mitigating factor may be that the Illinois Derby will pay a $1 million bonus to any horse that wins it and any Triple Crown race.

The Spiral gives contenders an early acclimation to Kentucky. Lil E. Tee won it in 1992, then went to Louisville to claim the roses.

The Santa Anita Derby separates the contenders from the pretenders in California. This year the races probably will be the final Derby test for Siphonic, Sunday Break, Came Home, Danthebluegrassman, and the other top Califoria-based horses.

The Blue Grass and Wood are proven Derby preps that almost always draw the best of the Eastern-based horses. This year they figure to compete for contenders such as Saarland, D'Coach, Saratoga Blues, Booklet, and High Star.

The Arkansas Derby was considered a "jinx" race until Sunny's Halo used it as the springboard to his 1983. This year it could get some horses looking for an easier spot than the Blue Grass and Wood.

And, finally, the Lexington is considered the last call for late-blooming horses to prove themselves. In 1999, Lukas was baffled by Charismatic's poor showing in the Santa Anita Derby. So he shipped the colt to Keeneland for the Lexington. Who knows what happened? Maybe Charismatic was invigorated by the crisp Kentucky air. Or maybe he liked the water better. Whichever factor it was, he was a different horse and a win in the Lexington set him up perfectly to shock the world at Churchill Downs.

Although Churchill Downs still runs the Derby Trial (GIII), now a full week before the Derby, nobody has pulled the Trial-Derby double since Calumet's Tim Tam in 1958. Now the Derby Trial is more of a prep for the Preakness (GI) or the Belmont (GI).

So the days before the Derby have dwindled to a previous few. However, there's still plenty of time for jockey and trainer changes, shifts in the game plan, and new shooters coming from nowhere. Heck, there's even time for Johannesburg to get in a prep race in the U.S., if for no other reason than to test the waters.

Native Kentuckian William F. "Billy" Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 42 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report, contrbiutes features to the Keeneland program and will be, among varied other assignments, filing Kentucky Derby installments on www.kentuckyderby.com.

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