Next Destination Louisville Or Heartbreak Hotel?
April 8, 2002
By, William F. Reed

As always, this Saturday's three major Kentucky Derby prep races -- the Blue Grass Stakes (GI), the Wood Memorial (GI), and the Arkansas Derby (GII) -- will determine who stays on the road to Churchill Downs and gets off the expressway at the Heartbreak Hotel exit.

But as you watch the three 1 1/8-mile races unfold, don't focus all your attention on the winners as, on many occasions, the eventual Derby winner is a horse who finishes second, third, or fourth in the final major prep races. So look for an improving horse who seems to be getting better with each race, and check the TV replays for charging horses who didn't have good racing luck.

Of the 22 Derby winners to come out of the Blue Grass since 1903, half didn't win in Lexington. In fact, Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch ('95) were unplaced in the Blue Grass. It's pretty much the same for the Wood. Of the 18 Derby winners to come out of the New York prep since 1930, seven didn't win the Wood, including Secretariat, who was third in the 1973 renewal.

While the Blue Grass and Wood always draw many top Derby contenders, the Arkansas Derby often draws lesser-known horses. In fact, no Arkansas Derby winner also won the Kentucky Derby until Sunny's Halo in 1983. Grindstone became the second to accomplish that feat in 1996.

In analyzing the Apr. 13 races, don't pay any attention to the "Dosage Index" or any other byzantine formula. Also, don't put too much stock in pedigree and conformation. Seattle Slew, the 1977 Triple Crown winner, sold for only $17,500 at auction, and Spectacular Bid, the '79 Derby winner, sold for $37,500. Slew had his final Derby prep in the Wood, Bid in the Blue Grass.

Instead, look for a good horsemen who finally might have his dream horse. Somebody like Jack Price with Carry Back in 1961, Billy Turner with Seattle Slew in 1977, Carl Nafzer with Unbridled in 1990, and Lynn Whiting with Lil E. Tee in 1992.

This year such a trainer might be Kenny McPeek, who's best known for training Tejano Run to a second-place finish in the 1995 Derby. Now he has a potent 1-2 punch in Repent, winner of the Louisiana Derby (GII), and Harlan's Holiday, the likely favorite in the Blue Grass.

"With Unbridled," says Nafzger, laughing, "it was amazing how I went from 'Carl who?' to 'Yessir, Mr. Nafzger, we've got the best table in the house saved for you.' Once you've won the Kentucky Derby, you're somebody for the rest of your life."

Among the best current trainers still looking for their first Derby victory are Shug McGaughey, who will saddle the promising Saarland in the Wood; Bill Mott, whose best hope appears to be Florida Derby (GI) runner-up Blue Burner; Paco Gonzalez, who's bringing Came Home from the Santa Anita Derby (GI); Steve Asmussen, who has three Arkansas-based candidates in Easyfromthegitgo, Private Emblem and Windward Passge; Bobby Frankel, who will send Medaglia d'Oro postward in the Wood; and Elliott Walden, who may send Mr. Mellon to the Blue Grass.

Many factors go into a trainer's decision about where to give a Derby contender his final prep race.

Some trainers prefer to stay home and some prefer to hit the road. Some seek out the best competition available and others duck it. Some feel their horse needs a strong, aggressive jock such as Jorge "Chop Chop" Chavez and others prefer a more patient rider such as Pat "Baby Hands" Day. Some demand that a jock commit early to a horse, and others sweat it out as the best riders play their annual game of musical saddles.

Everyone tries to pick the race where the track configuration and surface will best suit the horse and jockey. Last year, for example, some eyebrows were raised when trainer John Ward, Jr., who lives just across the road from Keeneland, decided to give Monarchos his final prep in the Wood Memorial at New York's Aqueduct instead of the Blue Grass Stakes.

Ward's reasoning was that Aqueduct was jockey Chavez's home base, and that the track's long stretch would best suit Monarchos' come-from-behind style. Although Monarchos finished second to Congaree, in last year's Wood, Ward felt the colt had gotten a lot out of the race and refused to second-guess himself.

He was vindicated when Monarchos ran the second fastest winning time in Derby history. Like most trainers who win the Derby, Ward knew his horse better than anyone. When he was second-guessed for not giving Monarchos any serious works between the Wood and the Derby, Ward would only smile and shrug.

One trainer who didn't always know his horse was LeRoy Jolley, who won his first Kentucky Derby with Foolish Pleasure in 1975.

The next year, Jolley brought the ballyhooed Honest Pleasure to Keeneland for the Blue Grass. Sent off as one of the heaviest favorites in Blue Grass history, Honest Pleasure won the race, but his margin over Certain Roman was only 1 1/2-lengths. Afterward, Jolley obviously was so upset with jockey Braulio Baeza that he barely spoke to the media.

Despite Honest Pleasure's less-than-sensational showing in the Blue Grass, Jolley kept Baeza for the Derby, where the colt was sent off at 2-5, the most prohibitive favorite since Citation in 1948. But Angel Cordero Jr., riding Bold Forbes, outrode Baeza, going wire-to-wire for a length win over Honest Pleasure.

After two more losing rides, Baeza was replaced by Craig Perret.

In 1980, after the filly Genuine Risk finished third in the Wood Memorial, Jolley said she would skip the Derby and go back to filly races. But he was overruled by owner Bertram Firestone. After Risk became the second female ever to win the Derby (the first was Regret in 1915), Jolley had mixed feelings in the winner's circle, but he tried to make the best of an awkward situation.

Down deep, however, you can bet that LeRoy wasn't exactly jolly.

Native Kentuckian William F. "Billy" Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 42 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report, contrbiutes features to the Keeneland program and will be, among varied other assignments, filing Kentucky Derby installments on www.kentuckyderby.com.

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