Plenty Of Usual Suspects Amid 2003's 446 Triple Crown Nominees
By: William F. Reed

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Feb. 2, 2003) - At the end of Casablanca, the immortal World War II movie, actor Claude Rains, in his role as the corrupt police chief, orders his men to "round up the usual suspects." Which, of course, is what the Triple Crown folks do every year when it's time to solicit entries for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes.

To nobody's great surprise, this year's list of 446 nominees is topped by the owners and trainers who have dominated the three classics in the last decade - Bob Baffert, Michael Tablor, D. Wayne Lukas, Bob and Beverly Lewis, Godolphin Racing, etc.

Unlike most professional sports, which hold their most prestigious events at the end of a season, the Triple Crown leads off with the Derby, the prize that almost everyone in the sport wants most to win. If the Derby winner repeats in the Preakness, as War Emblem did last year, the prospect of a Triple Crown winner guarantees widespread national interest in the Belmont Stakes.

Beginning with Sir Barton in 1919, only 11 Thoroughbreds have swept all the Triple Crown races, and only Omaha in 1936 was the son of a Triple Crown winner (Gallant Fox, 1930).

So, naturally, the early hot story line is whether Vindication, an unbeaten son of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, can sustain the brilliance that won him last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and championship of the 2-year-old colt or gelding division.

He's trained by Baffert, who has won the Derby three times in the six years since 1997, and he'll be ridden in his first start of the year by Jerry Bailey, a two-time Derby winner. Bailey will replace Mike Smith, not because Smith did anything wrong, but because Bailey is the Barry Bonds of his sport.

Until proven otherwise, Vindication is the straw that will stir this Triple Crown cocktail. Owned by Satish Sanan of Padua Stable, a relative newcomer who dumped Lukas for Baffert because Lukas couldn't win enough of the big races for him, the colt is training well in California with no current plans for his 3-year-old debut.

"With my experience in the Derby," said Baffert, "I know what to do with him."

The so-called "jinxes" don't bother him. No 2-year-old champion has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979, and none of the previous 18 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners have come back to win the Derby.

As trainers in his position always have done, Baffert is acting as if the "jinxes" are no big deal, just a matter of things going in cycles. However, until the cycles are broken, they must be given healthy respect.

As far as the usual suspects go, the following previous Derby-winning owners each have at least one nominee: Calumet Farm, Tabor, Bob and Beverly Lewis, Overbrook Farm, John C. Oxley, Mike Pegram, and Bertram R. Firestone.

But missing are such Triple Crown regulars as Claiborne Farm, Stone Farm, and the Bill Condren and Joe Cornacchia partnership.

The past Derby-winning trainers with nominees are Baffert, Lukas, Zito, Carl Nafzger, Neil Drysdale, John T. Ward, Jr., Billy Turner, and Leroy Jolley.

Besides Seattle Slew, the only sires represented on the list of nominees that have won the Derby are Unbridled, Pleasant Colony, and Grindstone.

If you define sentimental favorites as veteran horsemen who deserve to win the Derby but never have, the following would qualify:

Owners - Ogden Mills and Cynthia Phipps; Dogwood Stable; James B. Tafel; Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Russell L. Reineman; Golden Eagle Farm; Will Farish, Godolphin Racing; and Robert Clay.

Trainers - Shug McGaughey, Bill Mott, Ron McAnally, Stanley Hough, Harvey Vanier, Bobby Frankel, Richard Mandella, and Bob Holthus.

Jockeys - Smith, Russell Baze, Patti Cooksey, Julie Krone, Shane Sellers, Corey Nakatani, and Alex Solis.

The first significant prep race figures to be the Grade I Fountain of Youth on Saturday, Feb. 15, at Gulfstream Park. The field possibly will include Indy Dancer, Offlee Wild, Ozzie Cat, Scrimshaw, Ten Cents A Shine, Trust N Luck, and Whywhywhy.

In other words, Gulfstream is expected to round up the usual suspects, or at least the ones that aren't in New York, Louisiana, Kentucky, or California.

Madame Wizard Rankings - Our mystery handicapper was so mortified by Most Feared's clunker in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La. that she has booted the poor colt right out of her Top 10.

The new list with fresh comments:

1. Vindication - Newly-crowned juvenile champion attracts Eclipse Award-winning pilot Bailey for his assault on the Triple Crown.

2. Hold That Tiger - Enormously talented son of Storm Cats needs a better prep schedule than Johannesburg (last year's European flop in the Derby) to stay in this spot.

3. Sky Mesa - Hopeful winner is impeccably bred and should have no trouble at the Derby distance.

4. Indy Dancer - Training at Palm Meadows, ready to step into stakes company in either Risen Star or Fountain of Youth.

5. Kafwain - BC Juvenile runner-up easily won his seasonal debut in the Santa Vicente.

6. Offlee Wild - In his stakes debut, he overcame a two-month layoff, a difficult outside post and a wide trip to get the victory.

7. Ten Cents A Shine - This Ohio-bred has a big closing kick and an affinity for the Churchill Downs track.

8. Trust N Luck -- Ralph Ziadie-trainer is working well at Calder for his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth.

9. Empire Maker -- This son of Unbridled may finally give Eclipse Award-winning trainer Frankel a sniff of Derby roses.

10. Toccet -- Hard to believe his ankles improved with only a couple of days' rest, but this tough colt must be respected as long as he's on the Derby trail.

Native Kentuckian William F. Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 43 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report and covered Kentucky Derby 128 for kentuckyderby.com. He will be filing frequent installments for CDSN's (Churchill Downs Simulcasting Network) websites throughout 2003.

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