Hazy Derby Picture Lacks Clear-Cut Favorite
By: William F. Reed

MARCO ISLAND, Fla. (Mar. 12, 2003) - Where's Arazi when you really need him?

After delivering a stunning performance to win the 1991 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the unbeaten Arazi was considered the sport's next superstar. When trainer Francois Boutin took him back to France for the winter, several American writers and TV crews crossed the pond to report on his health and welfare.

Even when Arazi lost one of his two easy prep races in France, the hype machine kept churning. When he made his triumphant return to Louisville for the Derby, he received the full rock-star treatment.

Many of his fans, including some in the media, ignored the fact that Arazi didn't particularly look good on the track. He was so skinny than his ribs stuck out. But the memory of his Juvenile tour de force was so vivid that he still was sent off at the 4-5 Derby favorite.

After looming into contention in the turn for home, Arazi's lack of conditioning caught up with him. He simply ran out of gas. At the end, he struggled home eighth to the victorious Lil E. Tee, a longshot who received only a fraction of the pre-race publicity that was heaped on Arazi.

Since then, the most hyped colts to run in the Derby were Unbridled's Song in 1996 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 1990. The former more or less repeated Arazi's performance, but the latter delivered the goods for trainer Neil Drysdale.

This year Vindication, an unbeaten son of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, had superstar possibilities. Unfortunately, however, he was knocked off the Derby trail even before he could make his first start as a 3-year-old.

That was the first step on the road to chaos. As of today, there's no solid Derby favorite. Once again, it's anybody's race. And the trainers are as confused as the writers and the public.

For example, Bobby Frankel thought so little of Peace Rule's chances in the Louisiana Derby that he told the owner he shouldn't even bother to make the trip. But the colt galloped from obscurity to somewhere near the front of the Derby pack by upsetting Badge of Silver and Kafwain, who went into the race regarded as the Derby's leading contenders.

In 1999, the Derby and Preakness winner, Charismatic, didn't possess any Derby credentials until two weeks before the race, when he won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. And last year War Emblem had gone largely unnoticed until he routed his field in the Illinois Derby in early April.

It looks as if it's going to be same scenario this year. Whether that's good or bad depends on whether you prefer having one "big horse" coming into the Derby or a muddled situation where you can make a case for 12 to 15 ho rses.

We now turn the floor over to Madame Wizard, our peerless prognosticator.

1. Trust N Luck: He'll be a dangerous gate-to-wire threat unless Formal Attire goes with him in Saturday's Florida Derby, but would really like to see if he can rate going a distance of ground.

2. Man Among Men: Versatile son of Gentlemen cuts back in distance for Sunday's 1 1/16 mile San Felipe Stakes.

3. Domestic Dispute: Zipped six furlongs handily in 1:11.40 over the Santa Anita surface on March 10 and appears ready to take on a tough field in the San Felipe.

4. Peace Rules: Louisiana Derby champ earned a 105 Beyer when disposing of nine rivals in the toughest prep race to date.

5. Kafwain: Finished a gutsy second in the Louisiana Derby despite lousy ride and incredibly excessive use of the whip by jockey Victor Espinoza.

6. Hold That Tiger: An appearance in a U.S. prep is critical to his success in Louisville if trainer Aidan O’Brien points him in that direction.

7. Lion Tamer: Breezed four furlong in :49.60 at Palm Meadows on March 9 in preparation for his two-turn debut in Turfway Park's 1 1/8 mile Lane's End Stakes.

8. Senor Swinger: Gorgeous gray son of El Prado steps up to stakes company for his third career start in the Florida Derby.

9. Badge Of Silver: After trainer Ronnie Werner claimed that a displaced palate caused the Louisiana Derby favorite to stop badly in the stretch, can't help but wonder if owner Ken Ramsey will send this colt to join Ten Cents A Shine in D. Wayne Lukas' barn.

10. Region Of Merit: Slated to meet Strength Within and Aristocat in Sunday's competitive $250k Tampa Bay Derby.

Native Kentuckian William F. Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 43 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report and covered Kentucky Derby 128 for kentuckyderby.com. He will be filing frequent installments for CDSN's (Churchill Downs Simulcasting Network) websites throughout 2003.

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