Beware Of Horses Who Look Like "Sure Things" In March
By: William F. Reed

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Mar. 17, 2003) - The weekly Kentucky Derby ratings fluctuate as wildly as the stock market. Today's hot stock is tomorrow's loser. The horse du jour is Empire Maker, who was awesome in winning Saturday's Florida Derby. But one thing the Derby history book teaches us is beware of horses who look like sure things at the Ides of March. So, I like Region of Merit.

When the Triple Crown nominees are published, I always scan the list in search of Calumet Farm horses. Nothing would be better for racing, for Kentucky, and for the Derby than to have that legendary Central Kentucky tourist attraction extend its record for victories to nine.

So this year I noticed that Region of Merit was the only Calumet nominee. I decided to keep an eye on him. And darned if he didn't gallop squarely into the Derby picture on Sunday by winning the Tampa Bay Derby.

Since Alydar's valiant, but unsuccessful, attempt to beat Affirmed in 1978, Calumet has only started two horses in the Derby, both longshots, who finished back in the pack. But so far, at least, Region of Merit has earned the right to be on the serious contenders' list.

His next start apparently will be in the Blue Grass Stakes on Apr. 12 at Keeneland. Assuming the race will attract its usual quality field, Region of Merit may not be the favorite. But it's a lock the crowd will bet him heavily, some if only for sentimental reasons.

When Kentuckians thinks of Calumet, some of racing's greatest stars gallop through the imagination: Whirlaway, Citation, Hill Gail, and Tim Tam. Calumet, not Federal Hill in Bardstown, is truly everybody's old Kentucky home.

When Henryk deKwiatkowski bought the farm at auction more than a decade ago, saving it from greedy developers, he vowed to return Calumet to its glory days. Alas, however, that hasn't been the case, at least until now.

A son of Touch Gold, Region of Merit is trained by Christophe Clement and ridden by Eibar Coa. So far, he's stayed on the Derby path by going through backdoor. But in the Blue Grass, he'll face his moment of truth.

So that's my story and I'm sticking with it. For heaven's sake, ANYBODY can pick Empire Maker. What's not to like about a regally-bred colt that's owned by Juddmonte Farm, trained by Bobby Frankel, and ridden by Jerry Bailey? That team is racing's equivalent to Bill Gates and Microsoft.

But what's the fun in going with the horse du jour? While my friend, Madame Wizard, seems determined to go that route -- her latest selections will be available later today (Mar. 17) -- I'm determined to be more imaginative. Or, perhaps, more irresponsible.

So here are the Reed ratings:

1. Region of Merit: Why not dream big?
2. Indy Dancer: His move in the Florida Derby, from last to third, indicates that his best races are ahead of him.
3. Empire Maker: Duh.
4. Peace Rules: Frankel shouldn't get so high on Empire Maker that he doesn't give this colt a shot. Think about the many times when a trainer's so-called No. 2 contender wins the roses.
5. Atswhatimntalkinbout: A nice horse, but how did that name ever get past the Jockey Club? That alone will keep him from winning the Derby.
6. Kafwain: A loss in Louisiana isn't the ultimate test.
7. Badge of Silver: Wonder which colt will show up in the Derby? The one who looked so impressive in winning the Risen Star or the one who was no factor in the Louisiana Derby?
8. Champali: A win in the Lane's End Spiral Jim Beam Mattress Mac -- that is what they're calling it, right? -- would stamp him as a legitimate contender.
9. Composure: Maybe the colts are so average that a filly could join the ranks of Regret, Genuine Risk, and Winning Colors.
10. Ozzie Cat: His last two races have indicated he doesn't belong, but he has the talent and pedigree to make you wonder what might happen if he ever gets hooked up with the right jockey.

Native Kentuckian William F. Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 43 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report and covered Kentucky Derby 128 for kentuckyderby.com. He will be filing frequent installments for CDSN's (Churchill Downs Simulcasting Network) websites throughout 2003.

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