Billy's Feeling Nervous, He's Not On The Same Page As Madame Wizard
By: William F. Reed

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Mar. 24, 2003) - I'm bummed out because I'm not on the same page with Madame Wizard, our fearless female forecaster for the 129th Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs. She's a far better handicapper than yours truly, so it makes me nervous when we disagree.

Here's her latest Top 10, with my comments in parentheses:

1. Atswhatimtalknbout: Fast-closing San Felipe runner-up is slated to go to post as the likely favorite in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby. (There's no way in hell that the Derby gods will let such a horribly named horse win the roses.)

2. Empire Maker: Can't imagine how good he'll be when he learns to change leads on cue. (At this point, he looks almost too good to be true.)

3. Peace Rules: Unlike his stable mate, Empire Maker, this Frankel-trained dirt and turf stakes winner changes leads easily, though he may not be as effective at a mile and a quarter. (I hope he wins because of his name.)

4. Indy Dancer: Trainer Todd Pletcher may add blinkers for his final prep in an effort to keep him closer to the field early. (I think this colt has a huge chance to win the roses.)

5. Kafwain: Baffert's top contender will likely get the services of Santa Anita's leading rider, Patrick Valenzuela, for the his final prep over that track. (Sadly, Baffert already has lost Vindication and the brilliant filly Composure. He needs a major karma change before he gets to Churchill.)

6. Buddy Gil: Modestly bred gelding's only two poor efforts in eight career starts have come over off tracks. (No gelding has won the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. Anybody who likes this one to win the Derby has to be trapped on a mental off track.)

7. Badge Of Silver: Resumed training last week following minor throat surgery to correct the breathing problem that apparently hampered him in the Louisiana Derby. (He might get the silver in the Derby, but it's difficult to envision him getting the gold.)

8. Region Of Merit: Needs to dramatically improve his speed ratings next out to be considered a true contender in Louisville. (This Calumet Farm colt's next out apparently will be in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The homecourt advantage could propel him into the Derby.)

9.Ocean Terrace: This Kentucky-bred son of Saint Ballado held off highly regarded Ministers Wild Cat to win the El Camino Real Derby and is being pointed to a rematch in the Santa Anita Derby. (The swallows will come back to Capistrano before this beach boy wins the Kentucky Derby.)

10. Offlee Wild: Returned to the Gulfstream oval on Mar. 21 for a five-panel work in 1:01, his first since being sidelined with a bacterial infection. (I'm not sure what his name means, but it might be close to what I felt as I watched Catherine Zeta-Jones at the Academy Award ceremonies.)

You want wild? I've got wild. Here are my latest picks.

1. Region of Merit: What's wrong with dreaming large?

2. Indy Dancer: Something tells me this colt is going to be tough to beat in the Derby.

3. Ten Cents A Shine: I'll bet more than a dime that he'll shine on Derby Day.

4. New York Hero: He'll beat Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial. Write it down.

5.Peace Rules: Trainer Frankel shouldn't automatically ssume that this gritty colt isn't as good as Empire Maker.

6. Empire Maker: He blew away a tough field in the Florida Derby, but so what? Frankel is no D. Wayne Lukas when it comes to winning Triple Crown races. He's still looking for his first.

7. Kafwain: Baffert keeps playing musical saddles with jockeys, which could mean he's uncertain about his Derby prospects.

8. Senor Swinger: Recently moved into Baffert's stable, he could be this year's answer to War Emblem.

9. Badge of Silver: You can't discount his rousing 10-length victory in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds.

10. Domestic Dispute: Your favorite divorce attorney's sentimental pick. Divorce attornies do have sentiments, don't they? How about an exacta with this colt and Halo Homewrecker?

If you're now scoffing at my picks, I must say that I think this Derby will be won by a Proud Clarion, a Dust Commander, or a Canonero II. In other words, a horse that comes out of nowhere. At this point, I can't make a solid case for anybody.

You can forget the European-based horses. They won't merit serious consideration until their stubborn trainers decide to give them at least one prep race in this country.

But don't listen to me. Madame Wizard is smarter and better informed. In other words, Atswhatimtalknbout, if you get my drift.

Native Kentuckian William F. Reed has been a sports writer in various capacities for 43 years and has missed covering the Kentucky Derby a mere two times since 1966. He has been a high-profile sports writer in Kentucky for the Commonwealth's two largest daily newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader and was a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, covering among other sports, Thoroughbred horse racing and college basketball. Reed currently pens a column for the Louisville Sports Report and covered Kentucky Derby 128 for kentuckyderby.com. He will be filing frequent installments for CDSN's (Churchill Downs Simulcasting Network) websites throughout 2003.

« Back To Billy Reed's Derby News
« Back To Derby News