In The End, The Derby Tale Will Be Written For Us
By: Jenny Kellner

(May 2, 2003) - At about 6:07 p.m. on May 3, it will all be so clear. Everything will make sense. Even as the blanket of roses is being draped over the flanks of the winner of the 129th Kentucky Derby, the pieces of the puzzle will snap into place, the numbers will jump, screaming, up off the page, and people everywhere will be smacking themselves upside the head with their programs, asking themselves: "Why didn't I see it? It was so obvious!"

That's the way it can be with the Derby. The art of picking the winner has long flummoxed everyone from horsemen to handicappers to the betting public. That's because it's not really about past performances, or the dosage, or the Juvenile Jinx, or post positions, or track conditions.

It's because the Kentucky Derby is more than a 1 ¼-mile race for 3-year-olds. Each and every one has been unique, and Saturday's race will be no different. It's a work in progress that started in earnest years ago when these 17 Thoroughbreds first stood up on their wobbly newborn legs, a work that won't coalesce until the instant one of them crosses the finish line a nose, or a neck, or lengths ahead of his rivals.

Think back to 1990. Mister Frisky was the slight favorite in this 116th edition of the Derby, but the hot horse was Summer Squall, the nimble Dogwood Stable runner who many thought would give Pat Day his first Kentucky Derby winner. Turning for home, Summer Squall made a winning move to take the lead, but suddenly, charging up from the outside, Unbridled swept by and ran off to a 3 ½-length victory.

Day didn't know it at the time, but millions of viewers worldwide were watching as trainer Carl Nazfger called the end of the race for Unbridled's owner, the near-blind, 92-year-old Frances Genter. "He's taking the lead. He's gonna win. He's gonna win. He's gonna win," Nafzger said, his voice rising in pitch. "He's a winner! He's a winner! He's a winner, Mrs. Genter! You've won the Kentucky Derby, Mrs. Genter! I love you!"

Afterward, Day said, "I didn't know why I lost, until I saw why Unbridled won."

There's always a reason horses win the Kentucky Derby, and a story line we often don't see beforehand. It's rarely the obvious one -- otherwise 22 of the last 23 favorites would not have lost. But even the more visible threads can get passed over, sometimes because they stretch back in time, sometime because they stretch ahead.

Two years after Unbridled's victory, when nearly everyone was swept up in Arazi-mania, Day would finally get his first victory when he piloted the Cal Partee-trained Lil E. Tee to a stunning upset. The following year belonged to the Old Men - Paul Mellon and MacK Miller -- and the Sea Hero. In 1996, trainer D. Wayne Lukas went to his bench and won with Grindstone, nosing out Cavonnier in a race that would foreshadow trainer Bob Baffert's impact on the Derby over the next half-dozen years.

So which horse, which story line of the 17 will make the headlines this Sunday?

Will it be the tale of 61-year-old trainer Bobby Frankel, who in Empire Maker and Peace Rules seems to have the best 1-2 punch since Calumet sent out Citation and Coaltown in 1948?

Will it be the Hollywood connections - Steven Spielberg and company -- who step forward with Atswhatimtalkinabout?

Is it time for history to be made with Rosemary Homeister, Jr. aboard Supah Blitz?

Will Pat Day overcome his back problems and pilot the week's hot horse, Ten Most Wanted, in repeating his effort in the Illinois Derby?

Will it be a newcomer to the race, perhaps trainer Barclay Tagg and the New York-bred Funny Cide? Or perhaps Michael Tomlinson and the Arkansas Derby winner, Sir Cherokee?

There is always a logical winner, but the logic doesn't hold form from year to year. That's because the Derby is not a static thing, just as Thoroughbred racing is not a static entity. They are both ongoing processes which continue to draw from the past and shape the future.

There is a pattern to this 129th Derby, but it's one we can't fully grasp just yet. That's what makes it so intriguing. It's not just about picking a winner, it's trying to predict the end of a long and fascinating story. The past performances can give us clues, and the trainers and jockeys can give us insights, and the experts can give us their choices, but in the end, the tale will be written for us.

Jenny Kellner is one of the most respected, multi-faceted journalists in New York. She served as the New York Islanders beat writer for the New York Times and has covered Thoroughbred horse racing and professional football for several major publications in the Big Apple and beyond. She is a frequent contributor to a myriad of Thoroughbred racing trade publications and has covered numerous Kentucky Derbys and Breeders' Cups.

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