The picture of this year’s leading Kentucky Derby (GI) contenders was murky heading into last weekend and the results of its Derby prep races only added to the confusion.

MIDWEST - KENTUCKY - A heavy rain fell on Turfway Park shortly after Saturday’s running of the $500,000 Lane’s End (GII) and the weather provided as fitting a metaphor as any for the cloudy and murky Kentucky Derby picture left in the aftermath of its surprising result.

In a race that was supposed to be a coronation for Marylou Whitney’s heavily-favored Birdstone, New York-based 16-1 shot Sinister G scored a nearly wire-to-wire over fellow longshot Tricky Taboo in the 1 1/8 mile test. The Nick Zito-trained Birdstone never seriously threatened and finished fifth.

The victory by Sinister G was all in the family as the colt is owned by John Toscano III, Kim Corrado and Yamile Carla; trained by Toscano’s father, John, Jr.; and ridden by his brother, Paul. Sinister G. captured his third race in eight starts but was his first stakes triumph. His previous attempts in stakes company resulted in fifth and seventh place finishes, respectively in Aqueduct’s Count Fleet and Whirlaway.

The son of Matty G. covered the distance in 1:50.71 and paid $34.80 to win. The colt is not yet a Visa Triple Crown nominee, but his trainer said that he would take care of that by this month’s late nomination deadline.

“We will nominate him by the 27th,” John Toscano, Jr. said. “We’re still on Cloud Nine. The great thing about this is that it is a family affair.”

Toscano said Sinister G’s next start would come in either the April 10 Wood Memorial (GI) at Aqueduct or the Coolmore Lexington (GII) at Keeneland a week later.

Birdstone, who was sent off as the 3-5 choice, endured some trouble during the race as he had to be steadied a couple of times by jockey Jerry Bailey, failed to fire in the stretch and struggled home fifth.

Lloyd Madison Farms LLC’s local hero Silver Minister, the second choice in the wagering who carried a four-race winning streak into the Lane’s End, tired after pressing Sinister G in the early going and finished last in the field of 11.

Earlier on the Lane’s End undercard, the $100,000 Rushaway Stakes saw an even bigger upset as the previously winless Brass Hat shocked a field of 10 in the 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds.

The colt, who was winless in two career starts, stalked the leaders, took command midway down the stretch and drew off for a 3 3/4-length victory over the Todd Pletcher-trained Tales of Glory.

Trained by William “Buff” Bradley, Brass Hat covered the distance in 1:44.36 and paid $79.60 to win. The son of Prized is not yet nominated to the Kentucky Derby and Visa Triple Crown. The heavily favored Zito-trained entry of El Prado Rob and Pies Prospect, sent off at odds of 3-5, finished fourth and fifth, respectively.

ARKANSAS - Smarty Jones carried an unbeaten record into Saturday’s $200,000 Rebel at Oaklawn Park, but he had yet to earn widespread respect among observers of the Kentucky Derby scene.

But the son of John Servis-trained son of Elusive Quality undoubtedly earned the respect of some of his doubters as he cruised to a 3 1/4-length victory over trainer Todd Pletcher’s favored Purge to win for the fifth time in as many races. Smarty Jones, sent off as the 7-2 third choice despite his perfect record, covered the 1 1/16 miles over a “fast” track in 1:42.07 under regular jockey Stewart Elliott.

The win makes Smarty Jones is eligible for Oaklawn’s $5 million “Centennial Bonus” if he goes on to sweep the Arkansas Derby (GII) on April 10 and the Kentucky Derby on May 1.

“I have a good horse and he’s getting better,” Servis said. “He hasn't reached his potential. You’ll see a better horse cranked up in the Arkansas Derby.”

The Bob Holthus-trained entry of Pro Prado and Proper Prado finished third and fifth, respectively, while Mr. Jester, the 5-2 second choice, failed to fire under new jockey Kent Desormeaux and settled for sixth.

After the race, Holthus suggested that Smarty Jones might the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby. “I don’t know why anyone can think they can beat this colt,” Holthus said. “He ran the fastest final quarter of any (Triple Crown) prep this year. He came home in :24. Then you look at the Gotham (at Aqueduct) where the winner came home in :27 3/5.”

Smarty Jones and Purge are expected to meet again in the Arkansas Derby.

EAST - NEW YORK - The weekend’s upset theme continued on Saturday afternoon at Aqueduct in the $200,000 Gotham Stakes (GII).

Evelyn Pollard’s Saratoga County put away pacesetter Pomeroy in the final furlong to score a 2 1/4-length victory under jockey Javier Castellano. The George Weaver-trained son of Valid Expectations covered the mile in 1:35.53 over a track rated “good.” The colt, who was coming off a third place effort to multiple-graded stakes winner Limehouse in Gulfstream’s Hutcheson (GII), won for the first time since a debut victory last August at Saratoga.

Weaver is uncertain if he the Derby is a definite target for Saratoga County, but he said the colt would remain on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” as he will run next in Keeneland’s Coolmore Lexington (GII).

“The mile and a quarter is a big question mark,” Weaver said. “I think by what he did (Saturday), he earned a shot to consider the next step.”

Pomeroy, who raced for the first time since he was disqualified from a win in Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile (GIII) last September, set a torrid early pace (:21.88 for the quarter-mile and :43.67 for the half) before he gave way late. Trainer Patrick Biancone was uncertain where Pomeroy would run next, but said all of the remaining Kentucky Derby preps would be considered.

“We’ll see how quick he wants to run back,” Biancone said. “Don’t forget he was making first start off a seven-month layoff and may need more time to recover. We were very proud of his race in the Gotham.”

The highly-regarded and favored Eddington was bumped at the start, but closed late to finish third under jockey Edgar Prado. Trained by Mark Hennig, Eddington will run next in the Wood Memorial (GI) on April 10.

The major disappointment in the Gotham was Paraneck Stables’ Redskin Warrior. The Jennifer Pedersen-trained son of Indian Charlie had won three straight races, but tired down the lane and finished fifth in the eight-horse field.

Paraneck and Pedersen could have another Derby contender in Song of the Sword. The son of Unbridled’s Song is unbeaten in three starts, including a win over Sinister G in his previous outing. Song of the Sword is expected to run next in the April 10 Toyota Blue Grass (GI) at Keeneland.

Kentucky Derby Stat of the Week

The last Kentucky Derby winner to run worse than second in his final Derby prep was Thunder Gulch in 1995. He was fourth in the Blue Grass before going on to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont.

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