Let the chaos begin! The first Derby pool opens on February 10 and that means a mad scramble to the windows for those looking to lock in a solid price on their Derby pick. Since many of the Derby potentials haven't even surfaced for their three-year-old debuts, Pool #1 players are making their selections based on other criteria.

Based on our research of the previous 19 Kentucky Derby winners as published in The Triple Crown Handicapper 2005, there are several interesting historic patterns that may lead you in the right direction. First, is the number of races run at age two. In the old days, trainers used to plan on a 4-to-7 race campaign with their juveniles. Trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas rattled off five consecutive Derby wins from '95 to '99 including two that had enjoyed long campaigns at age two, Real Quiet (9 races) and Charismatic (7).

But that was then and this is now. And the NOW way of doing things is to be conservative. In the last five years, we've seen Fusaichi Pegasus win the Derby with just a one-race juvenile foundation. Monarchos and Smarty Jones had two races, while War Emblem and Funny Cide raced just 3 times. So, the key here is to NOT discard a personal favorite just because it was conservatively managed as a two-year-old.

Winning a juvenile stakes is no longer an important factor either. Only 42% of our Derby winner sample had accomplished that feat. A few others didn't win a stakes but did hit the board in one. How fast your Derby pick ran at age two can give you a clue to its potential at age three. Research has shown that juveniles often improve 10 to 15 Beyer points in races run early in their three-year-old campaign. Since the average Derby winner usually posts an average 110 Beyer, we'd like to see a two-year-old Beyer top in the mid 90s with extra credit for those runners able to post that sort of fig in a route race of 8 furlongs or longer.

But even the "Beyer Progession" angle has its exceptions. Monarchos could only manage a 69 Beyer during two MSW tries at age two. However, as the race distances increased, so did his Beyers. Others like Smarty Jones (97 Beyer on January 3) and Real Quiet (102 in the Hollywood Futurity) flashed their talent early on.

Finally, if you want to play Pool #1 but have no clue, then why not take a shot on a "dual qualifier?" A DQ is a Derby contender that (1) has a dosage rating of 4.00 or lower (a formula used to determine a horse's in-bred stamina); and (2) was weighted within 10 pounds of the two-year-old champion, Declan's Moon on the Experimental Scale of Weights. The 2005 DQ list includes filly Sweet Catomine, as well as Afleet Alex, Rockport Harbor and Galloping Grocer.

Jim Mazur is the author of The Triple Crown Handicapper 2005 and meet-specific handicapping books like The Gulfstream Handicapper. He is a frequent contributor to Horseplayer Magazine and has appeared on ESPN2 and various racing telecasts. Mazur is member of the South Florida Turf Writers. A graduate of Duke University, Mazur is President of Progressive Handicapping, Inc. and resides in Cooper City, Florida with wife Davia, sons Andrew and Brian. For further information on his Triple Crown publications log on to www.proghandicap.com or call 800-272-8039.

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