Derby Blogs

Dan Shapiro
East Coast

Curlin. Plain and Simple.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

It’s finally time. I’ve analyzed all the preps, crunched the numbers and watched the horses in the flesh all week. It’s time to cut through the B.S. and tell you who’s going to win Kentucky Derby 133. It’s very simple. It's Curlin.

Curlin’s win odds are 6-1 as of 10 a.m. on Derby Morning. If he stays at that price, I’ll be making a major withdrawal at the nearest ATM here at Churchill Downs and putting down a large wager.

With the intense media coverage on the Derby, I believe there’s way too much focus on history and who’s bucking the trends. All of the supposed “rules” of winning the Derby are based on small sample sizes, but the game of horse racing is rapidly evolving. I’ve been trying to block out all the background noise and treat this as just another race in my handicapping.

Yes, Curlin has a lot of history against him. He’s raced just three times and he didn’t run as a 2-year-old. But this is a horse racing and this is just a race. Curlin is relatively inexperienced, but lightly raced horses beat more experienced runners at tracks around the nation every day. It’s part of the game.

Curlin is clearly the most talented and brilliant horse in the Derby field. It’s that simple. He has a unique mix of tactical early speed, a wicked closing kick, good looks and the demeanor of a lazy cat.

In the Derby, it’s become fashionable to bash the favorite for no particular reason other than “just because.” I have been sensing that all week around Louisville in regards to Curlin. It’s similar to the way Fusaichi Pegasus was knocked in 2000 despite being clearly the most gifted animal in the race.

The media experts, wise guys and the local public have definitely adopted Street Sense as their favorite. I like him. Street Sense is a great horse, expertly prepared by Carl Nafzger. He should run big today. But Curlin is better.

Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand, and I fear him even more after the brilliant Oaks win by Rags to Riches. Any Given Saturday looks awesome and the speed figures are there, but the 18 post isn’t ideal. Circular Quay is the darling of the barn and loves Churchill. Despite the eight-week layoff into the Derby, I think he’ll run big.

My plays in the Derby will be very simple. At 5-1 or above, I’m betting Curlin to win. I’m playing big exactas with Any Given Saturday, Street Sense and Circular Quay. I will probably also box Curlin with some longshots like Liquidity, Great Hunter and Zanjero in case something freaky happens.

Also, I have a $50 future wager ticket at 20-1 on Any Given Saturday.

Oh, and I do have one other wager. Fellow blogger Justin Dew, who’s been doing a great job this week, has given me a gift. A $1 exacta box of Nobiz Like Shobiz and Zanjero. Perfect. I was looking for somewhere to spit my gum.

Let’s hope the rain holds off today. Good luck to all!

Dan Shapiro Derby Picks:

1-Curlin
2-Any Given Saturday
3-Street Sense
4-Circular Quay

6 Responses

Well Dan, I appreciate and respect your efforts and for putting your pick out there in all its glory. I had hoped you would Jump On The Street Sense Bandwagon as you thought about earlier this past week, but you just couldn't get there. I understand, as I am sure others do that Curlin had some huge Beyers, the "In Trainer", the "Hot" Jockey and an unbeaten record. He was so hard to pass by, especially at those odds that I had to put him in my Trifrecta (which I somehow hit).

I really only have one problem with your logic in going with Curlin as the top nod over SS (and again, to your credit you never dismissed the Sense and you put him in your Exactas) and that is that you paid attention to the very "rules" you claimed to not give much merit. The two year old champion not winning the Derby, the two or less prep races not winning the Derby, The BCJuvenille not being able to ever capture the Derby, and whatever additionally dreamed up reasons to not pick a very easy winner. And yes, it is very easy and plenty satisfying to sit after the race and tell the World, "I Told You So", and that is not the purpose of my posting.

You have been a pleasure to read over the past few weeks. I wasn't terribly familiar with your work but found your blogs and insights to be thought provoking, insightful or funny (and sometimes both) but most important to the reader, you were rarely biased, and when you were, you were dead on (see Nobiz Like Shobiz Blog) correct. I will continue to look for your insights and fine work as I have greatly enjoyed reading your material. You put in some great hours and did more than your fair share of research.

You didn't hit the Exacta and you didn't have the winner, but you gained at least one faithful follower. And while that singler readership won't pay the $108.00 Exacta numbers you were looking for, you can take the victory for performing your work above and beyond. Thanks again for your efforts.

Well Dan, I appreciate and respect your efforts and for putting your pick out there in all its glory. I had hoped you would Jump On The Street Sense Bandwagon as you thought about earlier this past week, but you just couldn't get there. I understand, as I am sure others do that Curlin had some huge Beyers, the "In Trainer", the "Hot" Jockey and an unbeaten record. He was so hard to pass by, especially at those odds that I had to put him in my Trifrecta (which I somehow hit).

I really only have one problem with your logic in going with Curlin as the top nod over SS (and again, to your credit you never dismissed the Sense and you put him in your Exactas) and that is that you paid attention to the very "rules" you claimed to not give much merit. The two year old champion not winning the Derby, the two or less prep races not winning the Derby, The BCJuvenille not being able to ever capture the Derby, and whatever additionally dreamed up reasons to not pick a very easy winner. And yes, it is very easy and plenty satisfying to sit after the race and tell the World, "I Told You So", and that is not the purpose of my posting.

You have been a pleasure to read over the past few weeks. I wasn't terribly familiar with your work but found your blogs and insights to be thought provoking and insightful or funny, (and sometimes both) but most important to the reader, you were rarely biased, and when you were, you were dead on (see Nobiz Like Shobiz Blog) correct. I will continue to look for your insights and fine work as I have greatly enjoyed reading your material. You put in some great hours and did more than your fair share of research.

You didn't hit the Exacta and you didn't have the winner, but you gained at least one faithful follower. And while that single readership won't pay the $108.00 Exacta numbers you were looking for, you can take the victory for performing your work above and beyond. Thanks for your efforts.

If Curlin wins, it will put to rest, once and for all, the Kentucky Derby preparation mystique-race at 2, etc. If CQ wins, there goes the recent race rule. Times change, and with it methods. However, some rules do remain, I think. Curlin has looked like a world beater against weak foes. Not to say that he isn't the second coming of Secretariat, but I've seen this before. Remember Bellamy Road? Looked unstoppable, but faded. This will be the real battle Curlin has not faced before--20 good horses, 1 /4, at a pace and on a surface that he hasn't seen before. Personally, I'm taking a stand against him because he will be an underlay. Someone, hopefully, is going to have to emerge from this crowd of 98 Beyers and become the champion. And yes, I think it is Street Sense. Good luck to all and your picks.

GOOD LUCK, DAN - MAY THEY ALL CROSS THE FINISH LINE ON ALL FOURS. MY PICK IS CQ. I FEEL THAT HE WILL BE RIGHT THERE EVEN WITH A LESS THAN IDEAL TRIP.

Have to agree, Curlin will have his way. I like Zanjero with him. Normaly I do not bet the same stablemates. Whats not to like about Zanjero in the money? Toss in the todays rain, add Tomlinson ratings.Presto.
Going with CQ and AGS for a trifecta box with the aformentioned Curlin and Zanjero. My win bets,100.00 for Curlin with 20.00 on Zanjero currently at 34 to 1. Could not pass on that price.

Oops posted it in the wrong blog...

Well for all you Curlin fans - Cockney Rebel's win in the G1 2000 Gunieas at Newmarket has franked [pedigree-wise] your form somewhat. Unfortunately he went off at long odds...Curlin will not.

www.pedigreeperfomance.com