Derby Blogs

Dan Shapiro
East Coast

Digging for Value in Future Pool 2

Friday, March 09, 2007

Well, it’s eight weeks until the Derby and the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is already open for its second pool. Ravel, I think, is most likely to win Derby 133, but I’m always digging for value. I don‘t like the taste of chalk. There’s just no sense in betting Ravel at single-digit odds. There’s too much that can go awry with these delicate animals in the next two months.

So, below are some horses that I’ll be betting this week. I think they’ll provide some value in this pool. In order of preference:

Summer Doldrums - His price will drop with another strong effort in Saturday’s Gotham Stakes, but his current 28-1 odds are juicy. This guy doesn’t get much respect because his best efforts were on Aqueduct’s Inner Track and he hasn‘t beaten much, but he does have many positives: an excellent trainer, a distance pedigree and nice tactical speed. His speed figures are top-notch, and I love his recent pattern. I’m going to be punching lots of tickets if he runs well Saturday and his odds stay above his 15-1 morning line.

Sam P. - It’s pretty scary when you see Todd Pletcher listed as the trainer of six of the 23 individual betting interested in Pool 2, plus plenty others in the “All Other 3-Year-olds " category, including Deadly Dealer, who dazzled in an allowance in last Saturday. Sam P. surprised me with a big effort to finish second in the Robert Lewis Stakes last Saturday and, at a whopping 81-1, continues to sneak under the radar. He’s the horse to bet if you’re on the Pletcher bandwagon.

Sam P. developed nicely at 2 and defeated Chelokee in a tough Churchill allowance on Nov. 25. I lost interest after a dismal effort in the Holy Bull, but I liked the way he chased home Great Hunter last week. Plus, he’s by Cat Thief, a horse I could never figure out during his racing career. He always ran big and beat me when I hated him, including in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In my days as a Suffolk Downs intern, the press box clan referred to him as “Rat Thief.“ But I’ve since forgiven Cat Thief and will plunk down a few bucks on his son this weekend in Pool 2.

Adore the Gold - That was a nice effort in the Fountain of Youth from the far-outside post to finish just a length behind Scat Daddy. Adore the Gold lost ground around both turns and fought bravely to the wire, showing the guts of daddy, Formal Gold. Yes, he’s a smallish colt, and me may be built more like a sprinter, but I think he’ll get a 1 ¼ miles under the right circumstances. His speed figures are on par with the big names. At around 40-1, largely because of low-profile human connections, he’s worth some of my money.

Good luck to all!

4 Responses

DAN
I am putting SUMMERDOLDRUMS Futuer wager #2 Because his speed fig/time .HE will WIN the GOTHAM in a track record time 140.4/5

Nice post Dan. I am a fan of Sam P right now and he does represent good value. When digging for value its interesting to look at the fut #1 vs fut #2 odds. Notice how very few of them have changed much. Of course they will change a lot before Sunday comes. I bet the field, Scat Daddy and Liquidity in future #1. I can't give you my secret sauce but so far I'm happy. Now I have all but eleven horses covered. Given that I only got 2.6-1 on the field in future #1, I need 18-1 in field #2. So I think right now that Adore the Gold, Notional, Stormello, Zanjero and maybe Hard Spun represent good value worth betting in future #2.

Horse Fut #1 Fut #2
Adore the Gold 33.0 32.0
Any Given Saturday 14.8 11.0
Circular Quay 12.8 16.0
Great Hunter 24.3 10.0
Hard Spun 10.9 18.0
Liquidity 33.4 28.0
Nobiz Like Shobiz 8.4 6.0
Notional 27.3 35.0
Ravel 11.6 13.0
Scat Daddy 44.4 14.0
Stormello 40.5 27.0
Street Sense 10.4 6.0
Zanjero 56.1 31.0

Mike,
It's definitely not all about the boys! I really like Cash Included in the Oaks at 38-1 current odds -- that's great value! She raced very wide in the Las Virgenes (GI) and probably needed the race. She's a grade I winner and she should continue to improve at 3. Baroness Thatcher, trained by Patrick Biancone, is also worth a few bucks. She's currently 25-1. We'll know more after the Santa Anita Oaks (GI) on Sunday.
-DS

Hey Dan,

I too think that Adore the Gold is a great value. I would like to know if you have an opinion on the Oaks Future Wager or is it just about the boys?