Derby Blogs

Responding to whomever it was that was inquiring about Hard Spun, I think Hard Spun has a pretty good shot at winning the Derby, and comes at very nice odds as well. His past performance is impressive and his latest workout was great. I think he's definately worth taking a shot on, I'm also pretty sold on Street Sense and Curlin (of course). winningponies.com picked the same horses to finish in the top, and theyve been doing very well lately on stakes races and churchill races, so i'm hoping to hit it big tomorrow. good luck to everyone!

There's Nobiz Like Shobiz because Imawildandcraztguy!

On Any Given Saturday one can find Sam P a Dominican and he's a Zanjero moving Liquidty in Circular Quay with Street Sense watching closely a Storm In May, Curilin like a rose. Stormello a Hard Spun Great Hunter heading from Sedgefield to a Teuflesburg outside of Tiago where a Cowtown Cat ran with Scat Daddy and Bwana Bull.

18 hole has won once since 1900 good luck to whoever uses AGS

I checked the site but only last weeks derby trial is the freebie.

Dan,

Are TG sheets free for derby? who does jerry like

I apologize. Didn't mean to slight Fusaichi Pegasus who also started in the teens and stands under 16.2 hands (surprisingly).

Jean,
Ok. So, I will take it merely as your personal preference as to the type of body you prefer in this race. 16.2 to 17 hands and not starting way out there.
Guess that means you didn't cash in either 2001 or 2004 when the winner was BOTH smaller than 16.2 hands AND started from a post in the teens.
I'm still missing the correlation, so as I said, I'll take it as opinion. I'm sure I have some (many?) that others disagree with, so I'll leave it at that.

Jean,
Ok. So, I will take it merely as your personal preference as to the type of body you prefer in this race. 16.2 to 17 hands and not starting way out there.
Guess that means you didn't cash in either 2001 or 2004 when the winner was BOTH smaller than 16.2 hands AND started from a post in the teens.
I'm still missing the correlation, so as I said, I'll take it as opinion. I'm sure I have some (many?) that others disagree with, so I'll leave it at that.

Hi Dan,
This is just for fun...
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Your readers can go to www.phonezoo.com and search for "horse race post time" ringtone, or search for fresnoflash... the ringtone is on my 3rd page.
There is nothing in this for me... I make no money... just providing a free service for Kentucky Horse Race Fans who do not already know about this free ringtone.

c/o Erich & All;

My question was 2 prong. Firstly I like tall colts, measuring 16,2- 17 hands! I bet Barbaro & Brother Derek last year, who had the 18 slot which is not a winning offer, or may it be this time, and why? LOL

Jean, I'm not being sarcastic, but what was your comment about Any Given Saturday and his physical makeup implying?
Menifee was gigantic and not the most athletic horse because of his size. He started from the 18 and came within a head of winning. Fusaichi Pegasus did win. Charismatic was much more ratty looking and he also won from the auxiliary gate. I'm not sure what you're getting at in terms of the relationship between physical appearance, post position and winning the race.

Jean,
Thorograph sheets certainly are not junk. You can learn more on their website: www.thorograph.com. Steve Haskin wrote about his Derby handicapping using Thorograph today: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38760

I watched AGS work Sunday at Keeneland and he looked great. Physically, he's the best looking of Pletcher's five, at least in my opinion.

Dan & All;

Who actually believes that AGS can win from slot #18, has anyone seen this colt physically? How big is he? Thanks & LOL

To DAN & All;

Where can we sample or purchase Thorograph Sheets? Are they reliable, or just junk marketing rip off mail?

Erich - I agree with your assessment of Any Given Saturday's chances from the 18 post and likely strategy.

By the way - Louisville is too good for you.

Could it be an Omen? ---

Robert,
I'm not a fan of Hard Spun anymore. I do think he'll be on the early lead, but I question how far he'll go. Stormello for me is a toss out. Simply not fast enough.

Dan,
What are your thoughts on Hard Spun? And as a long shot Stormello? Great blog you guys have going. Two years ago we had Closing Argument....wish we had Giacomo to go with him. That was a nice 20K+ exacta

Rock Hard Ten and Nobiz Like Shobiz are absolutely nothing alike. Rock Hard Ten had no foundation to his career at this point. The simple time frame of his career dictated he would get better as the year went on (I could be wrong but didn't he make his 2nd career start in the Santa Anita Derby?) I'm skeptical a horse like Nobiz Like Shobiz who's virtually been in training since last fall and hasn't shown a whole lot of improvement simply won't show all that much in the near future either. I'm even taking into account that this race has been the goal all along.
Anthony, as far as the 18 hole for AGS....I leave you with this. In the last 15 Derbys, horses starting from the auxiliary gate are 5 for 57 (8.77%). Horses from the main gate are 10 for 209 (4.78%). I'm not going to insult anyone in saying the 18th post is ideal, but its also not a death blow either. If he was a horse who was going to be laying 3rd, 4th or 5th on the first turn, I'd be worried. But the quarter-mile+ run to that turn should be enough time for him to slide down and get a decent spot. It's been suggested they should even take him back a little farther and make one run for him, which is something I agree with. The 18 hole might even necessitate that strategy. It moves AGS down a little but by no means renders him a toss.

Emily,
I totally agree with you. I'm a big user and believer in the Thorograph sheets. Nobiz has yet to run faster than his best figure as a 2-year-old. As a bigger, stronger and more mature 3-year-old that's not a good sign. He will improve eventually, but I can't see it happening in the Derby.

The thing that worried me the most about Nobiz is that he doesn't seem to be improving. Whether this means he's due for a huge improvement, or whether this means he just won't ever live up to his hype is yet to be determined. Perhaps he will be a better horse later on in the year or next year (if they keep him in training). Reminds me a little bit of Rock Hard Ten, who really took until late in his 3yo year to live up to his promise.

Dan,

I take the opposite view; I'm standing with Nobiz. I see him getting a dream trip having the ability to drop in behind several horses to his inside going for the lead. All Nobiz has done is win four of six and his FOY loss was sans blinkers and earplugs. His erratic behavior is a cause for concern, but I'm going to put my faith in Barclay Tagg's ability to straighten him out. Tagg is conserative and he thinks he's got a Derby winner. Good enough for me. Still going with Any Given Saturday out of the 18 post?

Nobiz Like Shobiz has the class, the distance pedigree, the seasoning and the talent to win. Monarchos was 10-1 when Point Given was favored and hopefully the public will continue to trash an obviously great horse because he isn't perfect. I don't dislike Curlin. I like most of the horses in the race but Nobiz Like Shobiz's best races are still ahead of him.