Derby Blogs

For what it is or isn't worth, here's my Top Ten list of contenders for Kentucky
Derby 133, or my guess is as good as yours -

1 - Street Sense - Deserves the top spot because of his consistency, versatility, the fact he seems to coming up to the race in great shape.

2 - Curlin - Who knows how good he is? If the Arkansas Derby was a true bill, he could win like Barbaro.

3 - Circular Quay - Eight weeks between races, but Todd Pletcher didn't earn three Eclipse Awards because he doesn't know what he is doing.

4 - Nobiz Like Shobiz - Traditionalists have to love the approach - won the Remsen as a two-year-old, won the Wood in his final Derby prep.

5 - Scat Daddy - Another Pletcher bullet, won the Florida Deby, working dynamite, so I hear.

6 - Cowtown Cat - Underrated, in my opinion. Versatile enough to win off pace or on lead. Shouldn't be blamed for winning the Illinois Derby by setting a slow pace. Seems like that is what real race horses are supposed to do.

7 - Great Hunter - Amazing how quickly his bandwagon emptied after the Blue Grass. What have you done for me lately?

8 - Dominican - Two-for-two this year, including a memorably mysterious Blue Grass. Improving at the right time.

9 - Tiago - A chance to make history after his half-brother, Giacomo, won two years ago. Worked well at Hollywood Park recently, getting good at the right time. Seasoning, experience are the questions.

10 - Any Given Saturday - Hard to forget he ran Street Sense to a nose in the Tampa Bay Derby and then seemed to bounce in the Wood. On his best day, he is a contender.

 With all of the above being stated, I haven't jumped off the Great Hunter bandwagon. I think he has a huge shot at a big price. If the pace scenario is the same this year as it has been since 2003, that is opening quarter in sub 23 seconds and half in 46 and change or less (as it was in '05, 45 1/5), he will be one of the entrants who should profit. In fact, the only Derby since 2000 that hasn't had a blazing early pace was War Emblem's year, 2002, and he led from start to finish.

A 20-horse field with jocks scrambling for position into the clubhouse turn has a way of producing fast fractions which help the stretch-runners provided they have a good trip and avoid trouble while moving.

So that's it. I'm on record. Last year, Sweetnorthernsaint was the favorite at 5.50-1 and Barbaro was second choice at 6.10-1. Should be a similar odds situation this year. Best of luck to all. We'll need it.