Derby Blogs

As far as the weather goes, the rain has stopped for a few hours and with no more moisture, I am confident that the track would be fast for the Kentucky Derby. 

However, there is a real chance of more rain today here in Louisville and as both someone who wants to see a dry track for the big race as well as a fan that doesn't to get wet at Churchill Downs am hoping that it holds off.

Well, about six months ago Street Sense showed that he was at the head of this class when winning the B.C. Juvenile at Churchill Downs.  Saturday, he will attempt to finally be the first horse to win both the B.C. Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby
while striving to be the first horse since Spectacular Bid in 1979 to be both the two-year-old champ and the Derby winner.

Remarkably, the top five finishers and six in total raced in last fall's B.C. Juvenile. 

I was fortunate to have Street Sense selected on-top in the B.C. Juvenile at 15-1
so we did attend the proverbial wedding while having a cold exacta with Circular
Quay in 2nd.  To me, Carl Nafzger has had wonderful preparation with Street Sense
as his plan of getting to the Derby has gone perfectly.

So after drawing a good post in stall 7, all systems appear to be in-place for Street
Sense.  He certainly will be the key for my betting on Kentucky Derby Day.  Here
is how I am planning on wagering:

In the Pick 6 which has a $1 Million Guarantee and has a nice carryover of about $288,000 into the day, I will single Street Sense on some of my tickets while using Curlin and Nobiz Like Shobiz on back-ups.  Pretty much, the same strategy will be employed if having to resort to the Pick 4 or the Pick 3 if knocked out of the Pick 6.

As far as betting the Derby individually, I will key Street Sense 1st and 2nd in
trifectas and superfectas over Curlin, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Circular Quay, Sam P.,
and Tiago.  If I play exactas, I will use Nobiz Like Shobiz and Sam P. with Street
Sense.

#7 Street Sense - Was best of these last year, champ until proven otherwise.  Ideal
preparation by trainer who won this race before.

#12 Nobiz Like Shobiz - Always highly thought of, Saturday is Judgement Day.  Ditto
above comment about ideal preparation by trainer who has won this race before.

#2 Curlin - The X Factor.  Could just be a freak and will despite inexperience.
Could run well and hit board.  Could fall apart and be nowhere.  All three possible
scenarios aren't out of question.

#13 Sam P. - Grinder may be well-suited by 1 1/4 miles trip.  Attended quick fractions in last.

#16 Circular Quay- Late-runner is a hard-hitting sort.  Will likely have a wide
trip.

Good luck and enjoy Kentucky Derby 133 !!!!