Derby Blogs

With all the respect in the World to Barry, he was watching a different horse in the Bluegrass than Daniel Randolph and I saw. I don't know that Dominican didn't win by default or that he has a chance on the 5th, but he got anything but a "dream trip" and he had to close in a paceless race. Granted, that may very well be why he had the muster to get there despite being blocked, holding up while buying an outside lane and then stepping on the gas, but the 2 for 2 gelding in 07 and since the surgery did not have an easy trip, he simply wasn't involved in the bumping and lugging going on two groups in front of him. I think Dominican is worth some money (at the windows) and can't be left out of the exotics but that opinion aside, he had to work for every inch in Lexington on the 14th.

I do however agree 100% with Barry that while an exciting finish, it wasn't the race I had hoped to see and certainly didn't give us much to take to Churchill other than more questions.

Nice work for Street Sense today.

So much is being made of this exciting finish at the Bluegrass. Polytrack or no polytrack it may have turned out the same way if you looked at it. First of all, if you look at the form there was no "true speedster" or even "true speed" in this race what so ever! This race had nothing but true stalkers & off pace horses. So as expected T'berg goes out and tried to take them wire to wire but still was simply over his head. On the turn leading to the top of the lane the stalkers made their run as Dominican was starting to get his engine running. Now many say "Hunter" had a tough race & maybe he did but the winner who by the way runs the same race all the time, didn't have the so called free & clear of trouble kind of race. When making his best stride he was blocked in mid way in the lane by 4 horses in front of him. Then went outside of them and then was very slightly held back as the horse to his inside slightly drifted out then still came on to win. Many are taking away what an effort Dominican made. I don't. As we all know a "true" off pace horse needs a good pace to run at, he didn't and still won. Will he win the Derby, who knows but I won't leave him out of my exotics in anyway what so ever. Good luck to all in the Derby.

Street Sense did'nt lug in, a right-handed whip forced him in on Great Hunter... it was a mugging.

Jacob A. Harris

Good morning Jill,

Keep up the great work. I believe you are the greatest Keeneland handicapper ever! While I can only watch a few races during the week, I did see you pick the Nth Degree at I think 12-1. Keep up the great work.

My question is if you know who may be running in the Derby Trial? I know it is more than a week away but you may have some inside information.

Neil, you are very right. when bill currin said he is changing stormello's style, i became worried ! this year he would be better served to just let him go out there and run his race, speed can be dangerous, ie: war emblem, winning colors etc. but sometimes every trainer's best laid plans of rating their horses go haywire when the gates open, and with the excitement that occurs walking to the paddock, the post parade, the crowd, some of the speed types will get wound up and find themselves unrateable afterall.

wilson,
ss will either take a big move forward off the bg, or he is headed in the wrong direction, i have to hope it is the former, he is too good a horse to dismiss. he ran a race so similar to his breeders futurity effort at keeneland that it almost justifies the performance. i need to watch him train closely to make a fair judgement now, carl nafzger is a good horseman who knows how to have one ready for the right time.

Michael,
it probably has something to do with the horses behind him, not a stellar group, but the same can be said on a lesser degree for Curlin. Hard Spun is a very live horse in the Derby with some of the best credentials; speed and stalking speed, a stride that lets him effortlessly get into a high cruising gear, he could find himself in the "garden spot" throughout if this potential lack of pace developes.

Jim, actually street sense was clear of great hunter, it was t'berg's erratic run that nailed great hunter, who was already beginning to back out of contention. as far as street sense goes, i still have to use the BG only for what i could see physically; ss had lost some weight, did not switch leads, and was taken out of his element. Tampa was harder on him maybe, but an allowance race that he was eligible for at gulf going 1 1/8 would never have filled with enough horses to use it. Tampa is traditionally a good surface to prep on. He will be under my scrutiny more than any other watching him train the next 2 weeks because i still like him.

jill,

maybe i am missing something but didnt street sense lug in on great hunter before tuefelsburg drifted out. that would indicate to me that he had a ton of problems in the stretch, maybe it was the poly track or maybe that track record at tampa did him in. i still am puzzled why carl went to tampa for his first start. earnings were never a problem. he could have gone in an allowance race at 1 1/8th at gp. i think he is wiped out. it will be interesting in the next two weeks to see how he trains.

OK Jill....somebody needs to explain to me why Hard Spun's effort at Turfway is not getting the love. 3 to 4 wide all the way around with fast fractions. He is my pick.

Moon

Thanks Jean.

Barry;

Way to go! Great post! LOL

Jill,
I reply to you because you seem to make the most sense on this site. I agree about that REDICULOUS bluegrass race. Ever since sinister minister won it a couple of years ago, I wont pay attention to that race again.
I am wondering if I could get your opinion on something. The way it looks to me there wont be much pace in the Derby. After watching the Breeder's Cup races and the few thereafter, my pick for the Derby was Circular Quay because of the fast pace in the Juvenile and I figured he would have something to close into. But after looking at who is going to be running in the Derby I dont think there will be much pace. From what I have heard they are talking about rating Stormello, Hard Spun may go but it looks like he will try to stalk, Cowtown Cat could go but he got such soft fractions in the Illinois I question his speed, and T-berg will go and may get soft fractions (not as slow as the Bluegrass). My initial thinking was since there are 20 horses in the field they have to put up 22 or 23 to get to the first turn to get the position they want. But if nobody really wants the lead they could get off another War Emblem race. The last couple of years there have been sprinters such as Keyed Entry, Spanish Chestnut/Going Wild, and Brancusi. With no Adore the Gold or some other sprinter, I dont see horses from way back coming in and winning this years Derby.
Hope to hear what you think and look forward to seeing you in the paddock during the Churchill meet.

Actually Jill, don't ever draw a line through a race. The Bluegrass actually exposes more than we all would like to know.

See the Bluegrass show all of us how we all have no control over the results of any race. Whether we are the Horse bettors, trainers, the Jockeys. Not to mention the owners who yell from the stands as if the Horse can make them out amongst the crowd. I wonder if this is why a horse drifts out to the stands. Trying to find his owner. Ha!

Tip to the horse owner, if you want your horse to win. “Stop calling him from the stands” We are all paying the price, LITERALLY”

The Bluegrass solidifies the saying "Pace makes the Race” We all witness the problem in Horse Racing together. We dislike the results, because it is contrary to all we believe it should have turn out to be. But, let's really look at the race for what it has shown us all.

Closer win or lose is directly proportion to when they decide to run for the wire. How many times does a closer lose by that narrow nose at the wire. They simply don't get there for the money consistently. Well let’s apply this rule for analysis of the Bluegrass.

Great Hunter made the first move in the race and it cost him position. He got pin between horses. Street Since had to go wide and paid the price, because Street Sense jockey never thought about another closer to the outside. That why he lug in as all closer do when running for the wire. They don't run out they run in. Horse are trained to do just that by the trainer. Carl N. was so quick to say, I don’t know why he lug-in. Trying to escape the comments from the public.

Well the winner, He just found his way into the race.

Naturally, no one saw this coming, whether on the track or in the stands.

Except his owner and trainer. They punch their ticket to Kentucky. It's a one way trip though.

Dominican was not the best horse but the luck horse. Free and clear of trouble to run to the wire. The best horses were and still Street Sense and Great Hunter in the Bluegrass. The horses simply was out position in the race.

Hi Jill;

Thanks for your kind words and feed-back. T Pletcher quoted the exact same words about CQ. My chief concern is why in heaven sake would Pletcher scratch CQ from having a logical and normal final 9 furlong prep, and do you feel CQ maybe better suited for the Belmont? His sire had won both. Wishing you a perfect productive day. Thanks for replying and please send our best regards to your husband Patrick.

Jill, did Street Sense remind you of Deep Impact at all when he finally showed that he could take a trip other than cutting the corner on the rail in the bluegrass? I thought Street Sense got a lot of seasoning with the traffic trouble and he kept finishing strong which was really encouraging even though he started goofing off a little he seems to want to win at least.

Jean, I think SS did not switch leads possibly because he was unfocused or uncomfortable on the surface, there are many reasons why horses don't change leads sometimes it is a soundness issue as well. If he had switched maybe he would have had that extra punch. As far as CQ goes, I have no problem with 8 weeks as he is a horse with a solid 2 year olda nd 3 year old foundation, can overcome adversity etc. He also is not a big , heavy colt so he does not need the hard pounding of racing, he can be plenty prepared by working in company with stable mates. The distance does not pose a problem with his pedigree and running style. If he gets beat it will not be because of 8 weeks, distance or training, it will be because either he is not good enough on the day, or he has some nightmare trip.
Thank you for all the kind words !

Joseph, no I do not have the answer to that but I will e-mail those in charge and see when it might.

Hi Jill;

Excellent obseration on SS in the BG. Why may you suppose that Borel failed to switch leads, and may switching leads mean switching gears, and that he could have gone fast in the final furlong? Jill, please educate us about this mood point.

On April 8th I enthusiastically responded in depth; but late to your April 2. To this effect may I please ask you your appraisal about CQ which is number #3 on your pick list, and that despite to his very good last 2 works, J.R V up, in contrast to his eight weeks layoff and that he has never raced beyond 8,5 furlongs?

We all love you and enjoy your assessments. In advance we all thank-you for your reply!

Jill, do you know when Dominican will be put into the contenders section of the website? I would really like to get a look at some of his previous races. Thanks

Yes, Joe, Silent Name is a very good horse. Now we have to see if he can transfer that performance to a traditional dirt track. It's always something !

I wouldn't ignore the race itself but rather just use it as one piece in a huge puzzle to come up with my choices. I like to see how all of these horses look and train leading up to the big day. I guess it's what makes the whole process so challenging yet exciting at the same time.

I went to Keeneland for Blue Grass day and I was stunned at how different this polytrack surface is. Wow. It definitely does favor a closing running style. Not a single front runner won the entire day despite half miles being run in 49, 50, 51, and 52^4!!!! Nobody wanted the lead and I could somewhat understand why.

But, some of these horses had real speed and should have been out on the front. Wait a While and Laity, just to name a very few (I don't have the program in front of me right now) pretty much blew their chances of winning from running off the pace.

The only exception of the day was a horse by the name of "Silent Name." He ran tight on the lead in fractions of 23^3 and 46^3. He still ran away to win by an easy 4 lengths in the 7f race.

So maybe trainers and jockeys are too cautious about taking the lead at Keeneland, or it is also possible that Silent Name is just a Beast.

It seems to be conventional wisdom that the race be ignored but I never been one to follow the back. I felt Great Hunter was done when the incident occurred, that Street Sense proved he needs a rail trip to win and that if Zanjero or Tburg were actually going to win with this company, they missed their chance. Dominican is the only horse that looks like he is building toward a big effort. The analysts that say ignore the race have had Street Sense glued to the top of their sheet. I don't care if I had the winner in Pool 1. I just want to take home some cash May 5.

You are right Jill. Handicapping the Derby is a monumental feat in itself. What it really boils down to, is come Derby day, whatever horse feels the best and has the best trip will win-period. You can crunch all the numbers in the world, but if a horse don't want to run that day, he isn't going to. So, I agree, go with your gut feeling and just hope.