Derby Blogs

John Asher
Mid-West

A Tale Of Two Works

Thursday, April 12, 2007

While Churchill Downs could not be described as being overrun with early-arriving contenders for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I) at this point, the historic track has over the past few days been the scene of two of the more intriguing workouts of the spring.

 One was a seemingly dawdling five-furlong breeze on Tuesday by James Tafel's reigning 2-year-old champion Street Sense on Tuesday, which was followed by a sharp move at the same distance on Thursday by Fox Hill Farm's Hard Spun, who earned a trip to the Kentucky Derby with his strong effort.

 At first glance the work by Street Sense -- five furlongs in 1:04 over a "fast" track under regular jockey Calvin Borel -- and Hard Spun -- the same distance in a "bullet" 1:00.20 over "fast" footing 48 hours later -- seem light years apart in terms of quality.  But both works were very strong in their own way and provide a nice example of why times, while a critical component in our sport, can be tremendously deceiveing.

Let's take a look first at the move by Hard Spun, a move that became one of most important pre-Derby works in recent memory as trainer Larry Jones said its results would determine whether this major contender for the "Run for the Roses" would actually remain on the road to America's greatest race.

 To observers at the track the issue of whether Hard Spun could handle the footing at Churchill Downs was never in doubt.  The son of Danzig, a winner of five of six races, simply skipped over the one-mile track under the Twin Spires and Jones was smiling as he watched Melancon allow the colt to gallop out a strong additional furlong.  The final fractions recorded by Churchill Downs clockers were :12.40, :23.80, :35.40 and :47.30 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.60.

The work was a sparkler and the real thing looked every bit as good as it appeared on paper. 

One had to take a closer look at the move Street Sense, the odds-on favorite for Saturday's Toyota Blue Grass (GI) at Keeneland, to be impressed.  But there was reason to be almost as impressed with that seemingly pedestrian 1:04 clocking as the :58.40 move at same distance over the same course six days earlier.

 But one had to consider the details -- and the closing kick displayed by Street Sense in the move -- to seriously appreciate a work that ranked 38th out of 39 at the distance on the day.

For openers, trainer Carl Nafzger wanted Street Sense to start slowly, answer Borel's command when it came time to run, and then fly down the lane.  And that's just how the move worked out, although Borel took Street Sense out in early fractions -- :14.20, :27.60 and :40.20 -- that were a bit slower than the trainer probably wanted. 

But the finish was right on the money.  Observers on the front side were mightily impressed when Borel asked Street Sense to finish at the 8th pole and the colt immediately quickened, flashed past the finish line and galloped out strongly.  He completed his the final quarter-mile in :23.80 -- with the last furlong in :11-and-change -- and galloped out the additional furlong in :11.60 for a final gallop out clocking of 1:15.60. 

In other words, the work within that work was pretty strong -- and indicated that the son of Street Cry should be ready for a good effort in the Toyota Blue Grass.  Whether that will be a winning effort is a call each racing fan and handicapper will have to make.  The ultimate objective for Street Sense is not the Toyota Blue Grass, but a race at Churchill Downs three weeks from Saturday.  Handicappers with long memories will note that Nafzger failed to win the Blue Grass with the outstanding Unbridled, but had little trouble grabbing the roses three weeks later.

And while Hard Spun was impressive in his work and should clearly relish the local footing when he returns for the Kentucky Derby, he will have plenty of questions as well.  The largest of those will be the six-week gap between his win in the Lane's End Stakes (GII) at Turfway Park and his Derby bid.  Then there's that Polytrack question, and how Hard Spun's form will transfer back to competition over the main track.

It will all seem fairly clear around 6:30 p.m. (EDT) at Churchill Downs on the afternoon of May 5, but right now both works -- each a good effort under widely varied circumstances -- are intriguing pieces of a complex puzzle that will eventually yield the image of the winner of Kentucky Derby 133. 

 The late, Louisville turf writer and sports scribe Mike Barry used to say that one "had to pay attention to workouts because they might be true."  In the moves by Hard Spun and Street Sense, the final clockings were clearly on the money.  But how those times should and could be interpreted demands a deeper inspection -- and more than a little educated guessing.

10 Responses

John,

To not have Great Hunter in the top ten is a crime, take a good look at the stretch run of the Blue Grass. A couple more right handed whips from Cory and Berg not coming out you may have been able to see GH's tail in the 4 horse photo for 2nd. By all means keep talking about SS and Curlin, every time you spew nonsense my exacta, tri., and super ticket gets bigger.

CQ is a quality, quality horse. He's got to navigate a lot of traffic if he sticks to his running style. Tough in a 20 horse field. What bothers me most about him is the 8 week layoff before the Derby. Makes me think something was amiss with him.

I thought Great Hunter was moving just fine down the lane in the Bluegrass. Saw a lot of quotes that he looked like he was giving up and not moving well. Disagree. he looked to be moving pretty well and definitely was impeded by Teuflesburg drifting out. Anyways, don't like GH for the win but do think he may hit the board in the Derby.

Hi Stan;

Yesterday I bet Zanjero wth SS, in the super. Tuefsburg killed my $52,00 investment. I would have equally played Office R.

To repay you, Curlins was 3,5 milion buy out of a maiden win. He now has 2 stakes wins.

Despite his 8 week layoff and never raced 9 furlongs, I still like CQ. His last 2 races were hard, especially his 5th place finish.

I'm speculating that CQ came out of that one sore, and GH looks to have suffered the same whip lash horse syndrome. Do you, agree and do you like CQ?

Jean,

As good as Curlin looked today, and he did look like a Monster, my gut reaction is to lay off and not bet him in the Derby. Still can't get past the 3 lifetime starts. That said, I have a few weeks to think it over still.

DIdn't bet today and I'm glad I didn't. I probably would've gone for Officer Rocket across the board and in exactas... and he was a real disappointment. I'm thinking about betting the Futures tomorrow but will be watching the odds closely. Look at what happened with Notional today... sad for the horse and his backers.

Stan;

Thanks you a swell friend! Yes as yourself I'm aware about the "Dual Qualifiers" and Apollo too with no 2YRO experience. I was inquiring because Curlin is the least raced, and shall likely be 2 second or third choice.

I think a dual qualifier shall wear the roses this year. Either SS or CQ. How about yourself?

May I ask you whether you think Curlin is ready to beat those stats? I hope you did well today with both preps, the national pick4, enjoying your family and friends etc.

Sincerely

Jean,

Well this is rough, but 1 winner with 4 or less starts in the last 90 years or so. I think 2 winners with only 2 prep races at 3 in the last 60 years or so. Sunny's Halo was the last horse to win off of only 2 prep races at 3 in 1983... so almost 25 years ago. The point is that horses "without" a solid 2 and 3 year old race foundation... are truly fighting history and look to have a tougher time to Win. WIll the trend be broken again sometime... sure it will but have no idea when. The odds are with the horses that have proper foundation for the Derby race... to win.

Hi Stan;

I reposponed to your thread which I enjoyed reading about stats regarding KD contenders with four or less life times career starts.

Can you share with our audience, the rough stat numbers that refer to? How many KD winners have their been with 4, -3, or fewer career starts?

Thanks & LOL

Pete,

Why do you even post here? Totally uncalled for riff. And by the way... nobody wants to read about your SUPPOSED big win and whine either.

SS appears better off synthetic surface. When he lost to GH; Borel may have made his move prematurely. SS's TBG objective is but a work out. There are several colts that can also upset this field. LOL

Of course we have sound reasons for backing our Derby choices but it quickly becomes an emotional affair. What a beautiful sport. Although the Nafzger-Genter moment is priceless and immortalized I'll forever remember it as the Derby that my favorite horse (maybe of all time) Summer Squall lost. He avenged his loss in the Preakness and skipped the Belmont due to medication rules at the time. His record against Unbridled was 2-1 since he also beat him to the wire in the Blue Grass. Luckily the emotion stayed with me and I played his son to win the derby in 1999. Redemption! But then we think of the career ending Belmont injury and the tragic death of Chris Antley. An emotional sport indeed!