Derby Blogs

Yes your right those horses did work like that a week out from the derby and they also did it on there own in a breeze....Pino was giving this horse right crosses with the stick which i cant believe. Good luck if you use him but he wont be on my tickets.

Old Trieste? C'mon...that's a good start but lets don't be selective. How about Smarty Jones with that 58 sec. bullet 5 furlong that he ran for his last prep on Derby Week? Or Barbaro who Mike Matz admitted he "blew out" last year with a bullet 46 sec. four furlong for his last workout Derby week. Or Funny Cide, he ran a bullet 5 furlong for his last workout on Derby week. In fact, a majority of Derby winners worked a bullet drill for their last workout on Derby week. Look it up, for the past 11-12 years.
Now, that being said, 57 and change is awfully fast for a last workout, and is pretty much the bullet for five furlongs for the past 20 years at CD. But, look at the colt's pedigree, how he handled the work, how he is doing after. He appears A okay...
Do we really know how good this horse is, or did Jones and Pino cook him? In any event, we will find out soon, but please stop saying that the work was too fast for the horse when the jockey said it did not feel like it was and the owner and trainer are all smiles...maybe they are fools, or maybe they are sitting on something very big that will either explode or implode on Derby Day.
Besides, wasn't Old Trieste proven to be best at 1 mile?

Hard Spun ran his race monday, kinda reminds me of Old Trieste when he did the same when he went 58 i believe a few days out . Horse led through out and then folded like a tent.

John,

I'll take $500 @ 1000-1.

Thanks,

Mike

Stan,
I respect you sticking with Hard Spun. In the end, I just cannot get over that blazing 57 and change work (which I think was a mistake 5 days prior to the Derby), the 6 week layoff, and first time trainer/jock in Derby. There have been 4 first time Derby trainers in row now that have won the Derby, and I see that string ended this year. I am not confident in Larry Jones and his indecisiveness regarding his horse. I am of the belief that if you think you have an outstanding 3 year old worthy of running in the Derby, you should not have to see how he works over the track that he is to run the biggest race of his life on to confirm. To me, that should not be an issue. Run him. I also am not buying into the whole 'he didnt like the OP surface" as an excuse for that poor race. He had 2 bullets at OP with the 2 weeks leading up to that race. I dont know why, but since the beginning of this 3 year old season, I have been looking for a horse to beat Street Sense. I think Any Given has the best chance, but I am not throwing out Street Sense at this point either. These are just my opinions, and everyone has them. Good luck to you, and respect for sticking by your guns with Hard Spun.

Jerry,

Call me crazy (and many will) but depending on th post position draw, I'm still betting Hard Spun for the win. Already have futures $$ on HS, Scat Daddy, Nobiz, and Cowtown... and will be adding $$ for win/place on HS and SD. Only thing that may take me off are posts 1-2 and 19-20 and any reports prior to Drby that the horses aren't doing well. I see you've gotten onto AGS and so good luck with him.

Dont discount Any Given Saturday. He gave Street Sense all he wanted in the TB Derby. He earned a 92 Beyer in the Wood with an even effort 3rd, and the winner of the Blue Grass earned a 93. Not to mention Any Given ran back in the Wood off 3 weeks rest, so regression was a strong possibilty for him in that one. That race (Wood) served its purpose which was to get him some needed graded earnings to secure his Derby spot. He has two 100+ Beyer figs to his credit. He can go with any horse in this field if he is on top of his game. With 4 weeks rest, and a non taxing last race, I believe Pletcher will have him just that for Saturday - on top of his game...

I had this dream at about 4:25am this morning, so my dream wins!!!!!!

Justin,

Please let John Asher know that not having Great Hunter in his top ten shows a lack of respect for horse racing in general. I'll give 1000-1 odds and take all bets that GH finishes in the top ten on Saturday.

You dreams are almost right, it was Great Hunter passing Scat Daddy in the final strides to win the KD.

Ok Tony, all i have to say is how can you drop a horse like Circular Quay, yes he has never been more than 1 mile and a sixteenth but he has the breeding to go the derby distance.

As tough as it might be to do, I think that the best thing to do might be to toss out Asmussen and Pletcher completely from the exacta. One of the smaller, more focused outfits is going to win it with a standout individual horse. Of the 8, Curlin is the only Asmussen/Pletcher entrant that should scare anyone. The rest are good horses with good connections, but a cut below the star quality that wins the derby.

I think the contenders for the trifecta are as follows: Street Sense, Dominican, Nobiz like Shobiz, Hard Spun, Stormello, Great Hunter, and Tiago. Then again, maybe Curlin is a wonder horse, but who knows? As for Pletcher, I think he'll finish between 4th and 12th with most of his horses.

All this focus on Street Sense is warranted I believe. But I still think Any Given Saturday can move forward off of his Wood. I dont think 1 1/4 mi is going to be a problem. He has shown strong determination in the stretch of all of his other races - which were at 1 1/16 mi. He also owns (2) 100+ beyers - which, in this group, bodes big in my capping book. He was a game 2nd to Street Sense in the TB Derby, and lost by a whisker. He is going to be 2-3 times the price of Street Sense. A great value underlay out of the Pletcher barn. Pletcher's best chance is with this one in my opinion.

Same connections. Same silks. Interesting.

Your dream was almost right, it was Great Hunter that Scat Daddy was passing in the final strides to win The Kentucky Derby........

Mike,

Since every other human being on the grounds had their eyes glued to Street Sense, and since I have already decided not to bet him, I didn't pay very close attention to him.

Thomas,

That sounds like a horrible dream. More like a nightmare.

Justin,

It must be something going around because strangely enough I had my
Derby Dream last night as well. It must be a mutant strain of 'Derbytoid Pyrexia'. This form of Derby Fever only afflicts handicappers and fans, and we suffer from endless visions and hallucinations.

Surely my dream had to be a hallucination, because 'BWANA BULL' won the Derby!

How about Scat Daddy and Bwana Bull for the exacta. Dreams can come true!

Enjoy The Derby!

In my opinion, there's lots to like about Scat Daddy. He's battled tested against the best and shown he can pass horses in the lane and win. He has a very solid foundation for this race. He's come home the last quarter at a 1 1/8 in less than 25.40. He meets the all the pace parameters req's for the typical Derby winner in a 1 1/8 race. His Pedigree is chock full of Triple Crown race winners. He has excellent tactical speed and is a stalker which should benefit him this year. He's training extremely well at CD and looks to be coming up to the race right. His odds will likely be in the 8-1 to 10-1 range.

All this as opposed to others whose Beyers are extremely sub-par when compared to the typical Derby winner. Who have never won a graded stakes. Who don't meet the pace parameters for the typical Derby winner with their race at 1 1/8. Who seem to be touted purely on "potential" as opposed to actual performance. The only way I see any of these for the win is if the race falls apart late ala Giacomo's win. And I still think that their chances are remote.

HOW DID THE DERBY WINNER STREET SENSE LOOK TODAY?