Derby Blogs

the keys to the derby. what will the pace be like and tactical positioning. with 20 horses expect traffic especially with a slower pace. the faster they go probably weeds out some of the traffic. stormello will be the pacesetter regardless of what the trainer states. It is the horses natural style. figuring out the tiers in which the runners are at in stages of the race seem to determine who the winners are. if they go 45, 109 change it sure sets up for a CQ or a deep closer...if they go 47, 112, it would seem you would have to like a curlin, nobiz or scat or a stalker type. i like how they setup the race for us on tv giving out positions, pace ect...however, that being said they usually put out that statistic about 2 minutes to post. (lets get justin to 100)

Hi Joe;

Naturally a long shot can win, first one must be able to quantify the meaning of a longshot. In my opinion a longshot is any horse over ten to 10-1. An outsider is up above 20-1 range while a A bomb is over 30-1, and a true Bomb Upset is over 50-1, and an Improbable Super Bomb @ 60-1 to 100-1+...

I sincerely hope for you Zanjero or Sam P pull it off for you, and that despite me perhaps loosing. Both Zanjero and Sam P had their chances to shy in easier company but now they'll be facing the heavy weights this time.

Your win elimination process is good, you can also add the Gelding too!
Best of Luck, and I'm sure we'll chat again.

Dear Dale;

I'm very touched to have taken time to address my question. I hope to be able to repay you this favour soon. At this point SS should go off as the true favorite, and Curlin has yet to confront a field of 10 plus opponents, less the 1882 & 1915 facts too etc . It's an open KD however it appears doubtful that any bomb would upset this 133rd running, and win. Thanks Again, Take Care and Good Luck.

Hi Dale;

There is nothing to dislike about SS, and all your info is accuarte. Just to guide you Curlin's dosage is beyond 4:00.. If it wasn't for CQ's Wood scratch, and training layoff I think he would have been true runner- up co favorite.

What's your take on CQ and Curlin? Can Curlin really win; is a perfect dicey mystery! Should we protect our game and take Curlin and CQ to win too? Please Confirm Thanks. LOL

Jean,

You said it is very wide open and I agree completely. So, why can't a longshot win?

I have Zanjero and Sam P. in future wagers and I believe they both have a shot.

I will also be putting a little on Slew's Tizzy if he goes, although this is simply because I live the horse.

I agree that it is wide-open, I think about 10-12 could win. In fact, there are very few horses that could win and greatly surprise me. The ones I think have no shot at all for the win are Storm in May, Cobalt Blue, Cowtown Cat, Sedgefield, and Teuflesberg. Some of these though, might still get in the money.

I guess I'm going to have to box a 15 horse exacta. haha

Derby fever may be calming down a bit.

Slew's Tizzy now reported to be doubtful, opening up a slot for Teuflesburg.

Let's see if Imawildandcrazyguy's connections come around now. That would open the door for Chelokee/Reporting for Duty.

Jean: yes, one of my top three horses must win, then one of the 7 (which would include the top 3 and 4 others) must come in second. For example, let's use fictional program numbers and say I bet the following $1 tri part wheel: 2 - 4 - 6 WITH 2 -4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 WITH 1 - 2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10. As Joe explained, the reason this costs 3 x 6 x 8 ($144) is that if the 2 horse wins, he cannot also come in 2nd or 3rd. Now to win this bet, the 2 or 4 or 6 must win and the 2,4,5,6,7,8, or 9 must come in 2nd etc., so if the tri comes in 2-8-5, you win, but if the tri comes in 2-3 -5, you do not.........now onto the Derby.....impressive work by Street Sense yesterday and I think a fair price on him (even in a 20 horse field) would be 3 to 1 or 7/2. Pending post position draws, I think you will still get 5 to 1 on him on derby day so I just can't see keying anyone else. Now I know about the juvy 'jinx', but as I have said before, NO OTHER horse ever won the juvenile by 10 lengths either. He has a very good trainer who has won the Derby before and knows how to get a horse primed for a specific race. As soon as the juvenile was over, he mapped out a plan of rest and focus on the derby that has since gone almost exactly as he mapped it out. I keep seeing comparisons to other juvy winners and there derby performances that are just not valid. For example, Arazi was super impressive in the juvy. He had a minor injury in his 3 year old season which caused him to miss some training and he really did NOT have the foundation to win at a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. despite this he was sent off as the heavy favorite and really he did run an impressive race. If you watch the replay, Arazi made an incredible move at the end of the backstretch and well into the 2nd turn. Then his lack of true fitness kicked in and he flattened out. I believe that if he had not had that injury and had not missed the training time, Arazi probably wins that derby. The key point here though is how it relates to this year. Street Sense is FIT and primed by a trainer that knows how to win the derby. With a 20 horse field, ANY derby winner will need a little luck with pace and traffic, but SS is my TOP choice and he will probably make or break my weekend.

Hi Dale;

Joe's been caoching me with Tri & Super calculations. For example your 3 x 6 x 8 @ $144,00. Does this imply you have three horses in a firm first spot that must win, and 6 in a firm spot that must place, and 8 that must fimly show ? I think I finally have the hang of it, Thanks to Joe Bloggs! Please confirm, thanks, and best of luck!

Joe Bloggs;

Permit me to say that you are an "ACE" when it comes down to tri and super calculations. Many of us often miss out because we have trouble calculating / managing our betting strategy.

I do not have the super expertise, but lucratively intrigued to begin learning by getting my betting figures right. I admit to be more of a pick 6, P4- and Rolling P3's artist.

Thanks again for your explicative help. I'm writing your figures down, and shall certainly implement them starting DD. I hope, and promise to repay your favour soon!

Best Of Luck, Catching that one in a life time 401Super K Joe!

Jim, I feel for you in having to pick the night before. Since I work at the Downs on Oaks and Derby day, I have to do all my 'capping on the night before and end up not getting much sleep. Joe, you explained the part wheels pretty well and I think this is the best way to have a chance to hit the tri (or super) in such a big field as the Derby. I am trying to get a pool together at work to bet a decent size tri (maybe 3 x 7 x 10 (cost 3 x 6 x 8 = $144) and maybe (if i can get enough stake reversing them because if the longer prices come in 1st, the payout really gets big. It sounds to me as if many bloggers are planning to be at CD on derby day. Does anybody think it might be a good idea to meet somewhere that morning to discuss the race(s) in person?
Maybe at the infield tunnel entrance or somewhere at the paddock???? Just a thought. Maybe I'll see some of you there.

Thanks guys-gotta do this now..i will be on the road all day tomorrow. thats the only drawback for me with these contests. i have to pick the night before but i am still hanging tough.

I agree with Joe, I am game for seeing who wants to share picks on the undercard. A horse I like in the 4th is Twilight Tap. Good luck and good night every one. I will for sure be on the night before the Derby with some picks and would love to get everyone else's ideas as well. Ant

Jim,

Play Julien all day and you'll be fine. He owns that track.

Ant,

we should post on this board some picks or thoughts on the undercard. everybody here is pretty sharp maybe we can make a consensus of some of the races. Speaking of which anyone got a horse for me tomorrow for keenland. i am somewhere in the top 100 and about $100 behind the leaders. anyone..anyone..

Jean and anyone else,

The math is simple. You just multiply the number of horses that can win in each position. If you boxed the field in an exacta it would be: 20 X 19 because since one horse has to win he can't come in second too. Boxed field for tri: 20 X 19 X 18 and so on.

Obviously you wouldn't make these bets but I am simply trying to explain it.

If you keyed 2 in first over ALL over ALL over ALL in super: 2 X 19 X 18 X 17

If you think you have the exacta and you only want to play 2 horses in first and second (Wheel) for the super: 2 X 1 X 18 X 17

One last example...I think only 2 horses can win it, I think only 5 have a shot to place, and I think only 10 can show... Here is how you calculate the tri (assuming the horses you are using in first, you are also using in second and third...and the horses you are using in second, you are also using in third):

2 X 4 X 8
Only 2 could win
Only 4 could come in second, because one of your five will finish 1st
Only 8 could come in third, because 2 of the 10 must finish first and second

It really isn't that difficult once you get the hang of it

Well said Tim, I am with you. I love the exoctics. I love the tri and supers. and the best 2 minutes.

Jim you should do what Justin does and box all your futures, I love that idea. It rewarded him very well with Giacomo-Closing Agruement. To bad some of us wouldn't be at the same track, we could do a lot of pooling our bets and ideas. Derby news seems slow the last couple of days, I heard chelokee reins broke on Saturday or Sunday, I also agree with your thoughts on the 2 weeks and 1 1/8 and 1 1/4. Can't wait for next week so Derby news is every where.

Ant,

not sure if my last post came out. got nowbiz right on top. my futures (first time for me) are sam p., chelokee and teufelsburg. Dont think xchanger and slews tizzzy will run. I looked at their race schedules and they race about once a month. I think it is a huge difference carrying 115 for a mile and an 1/8th as opposed to 126 for 1/4. shuman is pretty sharp and i dont think he is going to run. i think he will go in the preakness. another 2 weeks...slightly longer than last race. i dont think 2 weeks is enough time to expect the horse to recover and run his best race at this distance. however if they both run i am boxing them for a buck just to cover myself :)

I feel you guys but i am just sick of having the right horse and not getting a peice of the exotics because you wont find bigger pools anywhere, anytime good luck to everyone playing . its the best 2 minutes in life next to sex LOL

Jim I can give you one horse that will not win due to the amount of money I will win if he wins that is NOBIZ. Street Sense put in a master piece of a work if you believe what you read. I am wishing I had more than 40 on him in the futures. It sounds like he is ready to rock and roll. I don't know nothing about Carl N. But he seems a bit confident. Not cocky just confident. Bluegrass was a wierd race and I watched the replay and I ain't to sure Street Sense switched leads in that race and he still ran that fast late. Did anyone else notice that? He got out a couple of times and still just a nose out. If some part of history is to be broken I think the BC 2 yo not winning the Derby lately would be the easiest to break. Any opinions from anyone? Ant

Jim. I'm with you. Tough enough to isolate the winner and second for the exacta. I've gotten carried away in past years and money management has cost me $$$. I'll stick with heavy win/place on my top 2 picks and maybe 6 deep or so to catch the exacta. Way tough to hit the tri and super but more power to any of those that try.

Okay, now that I've written that... any 10 cent to 50 cent supers being offered? Think Justin said likely no. But maybe a smalll super for this big spender. Hah!

Justin;

May I please learn how you arrive at $540,00? Thanks & Best of Luck!

Justin;

May I please learn how you arrive at $540,00? Thanks & Best of Luck!

Barker;

Come On, get real! LOL

How much would it cost me to single Street Sense with every other horse in the pick six LOL

man you guys are discussing supers and tris and i am trying to find the winner and maybe an exacta.....getting too deep for me. my hunch is we are going to see a few scratches. Plus there is always the chance for an injury. Chelokee almost had a mishap. 11 days is a long time in horseland.

Hi Joe Bloggs;

I admit to be tad confused, but is our friend Anthoney right, that your formula applies for Tri's, and not Supers? Thanks for replying & Best of Luck!

Larry,

$540 for each tri, if you play it for $1.

Joe
Say I want to bet a tri how much will it cost like this ?
123456 / 123456 / ALL
123456 / ALL /123456

Joe numbers are for a tri and mine are for a superfecta, they are the totals for keying in one spot, top, 2nd or 3rd. Ant

Dear Anthoney & Joe Bloggs;

Thank you both for your help here.

Joe;

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but does mean one must defray $612,00 time six or $3,672,00 to protect, reverse or and close ones box, 2 horse key or 2 horse part wheel?

This bet is way too expensive alone. I may consider Teaming Up, while definitely down sizing and limiting my playing field to about half the field. Please Confirm. Thanks LOL

To play 1,2 / 1,2 / ALL / ALL,

it would cost $612 in a 20-horse field... That's 2 X 1 X 18 X 17

I think it would be the field which is 20 minus 1 and multiply the next 3 numbers in decending order. 19x18x17 = 5,814 or a 2 horse key would cost 11,628. That would be a monster bet. Don't forget to add 25% taxes to the government also. It is worth it if it is a monster like usual.

Hi Dale;

Can you please assist me to calcuate the super as shown in my two threads below. Thanks & LOL

Dear Anthoney, or & Friends;

Can you please help me calcuate the super as shown in my thread below? Thanks & LOL

Hi Justin;

Perhaps you, or one of our members maybe kind enough to helf, by sharing with all our viewers and myself how to calucate exactly how much it will cost to key two horses for a one dollar super trifecta bet, on a FULL FIELD LINE BET of 20 horses?
Thanks for responding. LOL

Xchangers Trainer Shuman, puts the word out if anyone is looking for a Kentucky Derby horse we got one right here. With that said I do not believe he believe's his own horse has a chance. How many trianers want to sell a horse that could go to the Derby and win it.. None, however his is part owner I guess if someone was stupid and offered 3.5 million for it, I would sell it to. But that comment goes a long way for me. He has no chance. If you like Exchanger you probably in love with Curlin. Everyone said he beat a bunch of nobodys, which I agree with. Where did Exchanger run in that race? Why did no one come and race Curlin, If they were scared of Curlin we will see, because no one came over to run for the million. Because of a non graded race I don't know, but I assume all Curlin lovers and Exchanger lovers will be doing the same come Derby day. Drinking a beer and asking what happened? As I probably will to with NoBiz, but that is why we love the game, we all have different opinions.

Here is an easy way for tri wheel prices what ever size the field is minus 1 and multiply the next to numbers example 20 head equals 19x18 =342 or 10 head equals 9x8 =72.

I think the Xchanger connections are actually willing to part with him for someone with "Derby Fever". Nice colt but they are ready and willing to cash in now. Wonder if the Teuf connections are having second thoughts as they sit on the bubble now.

Chad,

I'm glad you were inspired enough to respond. You are not the only one who disagrees with me. So far, it looks like between 50%-60% of responders disagree with at least some part of my "rant".

Xchanger has faced top competition in a route race four times in his career. In those races, he has finished 6th of 10, 3rd of 8, 5th of 10, and 7th of 9. He has faced moderate to lesser competition in a route race twice, and finished 3rd of 10 and 1st of 6. My point is that he seems to be less-than-competitive against top horses going more than 1 mile. Does this make him a bad horse? Not at all. In fact, he probably has a decent career ahead of him. But in my opinion, the most accurate gauge of his ability to face top competition at 10 furlongs would be his races in the Grade 1 Champagne, The Southwest, and the Grade 3 Rebel, where he finished 6th, 5th, and 7th. I would also point out that he has lost ground in the stretch in four of his five route losses. Based on the projected field at this time for the Derby, I would rate Xchanger as about the 17th most likely winner. So, perhaps I should not have said he has NO shot, but I feel that he has little chance of winning.

Sedgefield has not finished in the money on dirt because he has never raced on dirt. His 4th in the Transylvania can be forgiven as far as I'm concerned. He ran a hard race chasing Hard Spun in the Lane's End. Before that, he was very competitive against tough turf horses in Florida. Now, I'm not saying that Sedgefield is a "likely winner", but I give him more of a chance than Xchanger, and Sedgefield has run better races against better horses.

I would also argue that the allowance horses that Chelokee was facing at Gulfstream were better than the field that Xchanger just beat.

In the end, I think Teuflesberg, Chelokee, and Sedgefield have been more competitive against top competition than Xchanger, and I think all three belong in the Derby more than Xchanger.

If i was dominguez i wouldnt ride Sam P, he was beating that horse going into the turn in the Santa Anita Derby and got beat by a sprinter named King Of The Roxy and a one hit wonder Tiago....Sorry John Sherriffs lightning doesnt strike twice......How about that work by Street Sense today ......All aboard his band wagon and hold on tight because im driving.

Justin,

I disagreed with your latest blog so much, that I had to register and get a username to respond to your latest rant. You say that Xchanger has no shot in the Derby and I ask why?

Not only was he a graded stakes winner at 2, he ran third in a $1 million race over a track that is difficult to handle, than got a bad trip with Joe Bravo that cost him 2nd place money in his first start at 3. Staying at Oaklawn to train for the Rebel, no horse on the grounds looked or trained better than he did. In that race, a personal vendetta with one jockey and a different trainer cost X any chance at a top finish. The Tesio was nothing more than a public workout but he did everything he had to do. And by the way, jockey Ramon Dominguez was not asking him for all he had after the opening half-mile of the race like he did a few weeks ago with Sam P.

You than go on to say that horses like Sedgefield and Chelokee should be in the field and I ask you why? Sedgefield a brother to English Channel has never hit the board in any kind of a dirt race, why does he merit inclusion? Off a wonderful fourth place finish in the grass Transylvania Stakes...and as far as Chelokee is concerned (first of all nice name, could they have been any worse from stealing Stonerside Stables Chilukki?) he has run in 1 stakes race, 1....he finished third....he knew the earnings he had, and elected not to run again. Yes, I understand that Michael Matz is his trainer, and he won the Derby last year, but this is not the Masters and you don't have an automatic excemption into the Derby, you have to EARN YOUR WAY IN. And his easy 1/2 mile breezes since the stakes make you wonder if he would be fit enough in the Kentucky Derby.

With JoJo you are right...Teufelsberg deserves to go to the Derby, he has danced every dance, and fought every fight...For the Southwest not to be a graded Stakes with horses such as Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Lawyer Ron coming out of is a joke. And if his nose was any longer he runs third in the Blue Grass and locks up a spot in the Derby.

But don't hate on Xchanger, unless you have ever seen him train. For the $40,000 he was bought for, and the more than $300,000 he has earned, trainer Mark Shuman and the rest of the Circle Z stable have every reason to run in the Derby.

Thanks for the help . I kicked myself in the ass a few years back when i wanted to play afllet alex that way and the tri payed 800 grand which i would have got half of. last year i wanted to play it that way with barbaro and would have won 5500. I am not sure who i am going to go with as I like to see the post positions but i am leaning towards tiago or zanjero. Well have a good one and once again thanks to justin and dale

Tim, a 1 / ALL / ALL tri part wheel would cost you 1 x 19 x 18 or $342 (assuming a 20 horse field). Putting 1 horse in all 3 slots with the ALL / ALL would cost 3 times that much ($1026). These figures are all based on a $1 bet.

Daniel,

I will look into that stat and get back to you.

Tim,

If you key one horse 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in a 20-horse field, your total cost will be $1026. Here's how it works.....You would play your horse 1st, the other 19 horses 2nd, and the remaining 18 horses 3rd. That's 1x19x18=342 total combinations. Repeat the process for 2nd and 3rd, and you have 342x3=1026.

hey justin, please help me out i want to play a 1 dollar trifecta and put my horse in first, secon, and third with the feild. How much will this cost me? thanks

tim

Justin, an off-topic question...

Do you (or anyone else reading) have the statistics on how Derby runners without a 1 1/8 prep have fared historically? I've not seen this discussed anywhere yet.

Off the long layoff I really don't like CQs chances for the win and am considering not using him underneath as well.

Right now if I had to pick 5 horses for all my gimmicks it would be SS NOBIZ AGS Chelokee and Liquidity. Although I will be watching the works and news so nothing in stone yet. I am rooting for NOBIZ all the way for $$$ reasons and roadtotheroses. As I got the trainer Jock and horse so go NoBIZ Ant

YES!!!

Chances are Slew's Tizzy will be at Churchill Downs on May 5th!!! Post positions and eye-openning workouts could change my picks, but as of now I will probably play a 5 horse exacta with some live longshots that I love.

How about:
NoBiZ, AGS, Slew's Tizzy, Zanjero, and Sam P.

Prado & Espinoza should not be taken lightly, nor JRV. lol

Jim,

With the Derby Trial now ungraded, Bold Start has little chance of making the field.

here we go. you were right justin..both xchanger and slews tizzy are eyeing the derby. i find it highly unlikely that either can fire their best shot off such a short rest which could compromise their chances from the get go. now if bold start wins the derby trial...