Derby Blogs

Hard Spun ran by far the best race. All of the others that were close to the pace finished in the rear of the field. Street Sense somehow received a perfect trip again. If you watch the overhead replay you can see he gets a clear run from 19th to 3rd while on the rail the entire time. Had Imawildandcrazyguy stayed on the rail Street Sense would have been stopped cold with nowhere to go. Also if the wall of horses in the middle of the track would have stayed closer to the inside Street Sense would have been trapped behind Sedgefield. It was a replay of the BC Juvenile all over again.

I have to wonder why Mark Guidry moved Imawildandcrazyguy off the rail when he did. He could have held his position for another 1/16th of a mile then angled out. Is there a chance he knew he could not win and that Borel yelled for him to move over so that he could get through? Jockeys sometimes allow others to go through especially when they know they can not win. These two have been riding together forever and if it were any other rider on Imawildandcrazyguy there is a distinct possibility that he would have held his position on the rail.

Did Street Sense run a great race? Absolutely, but Hard Spun was more impressive. I for one can not ordain Street Sense a Triple Crown winner yet. Pimlico does not favor deep closers and if he has to loop around the field instead of getting another dream run up the rail he may not be good enough. If he dominates the Preakness then I do not see anyone else knocking him off in the Belmont.

Do not be suprised if Hard Spun redeems himself in Baltimore. Pino will have home field advantage and will have a track that tends to favor his mounts running style more so then the favorites.

Lenny

Justin,

Thank you for all the great blog entries! I've enjoyed them all.

Congratulations to Street Sense and his connections on the Kentucky Derby win. I'll be rooting for him for the Triple Crown score. However, I believe that Calvin will need to make his move earlier if he hopes to keep Hard Spun from wiring the Preakness field.

In adddition to Street Sense, I was especially impressed with Curlin, Imawildandcrazyguy and Tiago.

For a horse with no foundation, Curlin showed and extra dimension today coming from 13th to get up for 3rd. Crazy was in 11th at the stretch and rounded out the Superfecta for 4th. Tiago was in 12th at the stretch and came home in 7th place.

Even though they were scoreless, Crazy and Tiago posted impressive stretch moves and they've been added to my watch list.

And Curlin, without a doubt, is the real deal and it will be exciting to watch him as he matures. It's a shame. though, that a fine trainer like Helen Pitts will not be able to share in his glory.

Wow!

That is the best trip of any horse in Kentucky derby history! Amazing! Rode the rail the entire way and passed everyone hugging the rail! Incredible!

But...This horse is still a stud! Triple Crown?!?! In my opinion, he has the best chance since Pegasus!

Don't forget Slew's Tizzy in the Preakness! $50 exacta Street Sense over Slew's Tizzy...COLD!!!!!!

Hard Spun looked like a Triple crown winner today. Running the half in 46 + and still burying the field. The top half of the field collapsed and still Borel skillfully and luckily gets the rail trip of the year from 19th place. Hard spun was easily the best horse starting the race.

Like Justin, I'm a value player. After minimal time 'capping, I decided this was
a pretty mediocre crop, that SS and Curlin would not have to be much to give
the "history-in-the-trash" gang the ammunition they'd need for a year, and that
of the horses I liked some, none was gonna be a really tempting price ( I had
Hard Spun at 10-1 as my "hard" cutoff -' cause after posts drawn, thought it
more likely he'd be first flight, and his best chances would have him in the second)
so no bets. Nada. Zip. Zero. And I would preserve my very modest positive ROI
for Derby Day.
The notion there was ever a "juvie-jinx" was mostly media-sap. The notion that a
single, distinctive event dismisses what was never there is more of the same.
"Three races at three" is too narrow a description of a common-sense approach. Young horses, even those freakishly talented, are better served coming to this race with sufficient bottom. What combination of races at two and three at
what tracks against which competitors along with works and gallops (remember
how Tim Ritchey was "overworking" Alex a coupla years ago?) have all to be
decided within a complex and unique landscape by trainer/owner. There is no magic formula for getting to and winning the big race - but, if you ever want to
cash another ticket, you'd better believe there is a "path" most horses must
traverse to have a legit shot (along with appropriate breeding for the distance).
The very real possibility is that right now, the three top finishers are simply
more talented by leagues enough that no lack or presence of particular tests
would have prevented them finishing one-two-three. So be careful before
hauling that "historical trash" to the dump. Maybe it just needs a little bit more
disciplined definition to return to its customary usefulness. (As a side note,
please recall that these so-called "rules" or "guidelines" have never pretended
to reveal second and third horses; so Curlin's good race, even under the rubrics
of the sophomore media, "prove" absolute donkey-dust..)
I think the Preakness could be a decent race. I'm not convinced "Sense" takes
as much track with him as he enjoys at Louisville. I hope they plan to and can
get Hard Spun to press the pace, not set it (brilliant race by him under the circumstances - and I finally decided, after listening to Larry Jones and Steve
Haskin and others, that the Superwork hadn't taken anything much from him).
I wish the media would get off the still-young Todd Pletcher's back with additional
hollow "jinx' talk. Get back to me when he's had a favorite or two or three several
years running, as so many other great trainers have, and failed to claim the roses.
Thanks to all for fun contris. I've always said the chatter is usually better than the race (it's certainly not as damaging to the frail bodies of young threes as Derby
fever!). Special thanks to you, Justin. Think y'did a bang-up job...

I am not certain why there is so much emphasis put on "Tradition", "preps", and things like this, when I handicap a race I look at the horse, what it has done, not what is "against" the horse, (preps, racing at 2, etc.), I look at what advantages the horse "DOES" have, when I handicapped this derby, I spent many hours going over the form, ppf's of each horse, recent workouts, I attend the races at Remington Park in Oklahoma, I have a certain "system" for betting on the Derby, just because of the length, first time for all of these horse to race this distance, I go over the form and select the horses I think have a shot, then when post time is nearing I examine the odds, find what must be bet on the horses I select, I also ALWAYS put in a $2 win ticket on each horse in the field, just in case a large longshot wins on this day, today I met a friend at the track, he is NOT a handicapper, if you were to put an elephant and a horse in front of him he could not pick the horse, (just kidding, I don't think that he is actually this stupid), he asked me what I liked in the Derby, I went through the form selecting the horses I liked in order of finish, my first 3 horses that I wrote were, 7,2, 8, I had the winner selected and the 2nd and third place horses selected, although just in the wrong order, I said that I did wager $2 on each horse, that is $40, I wagered $20 on the 7, $10 on the 2 and 8, so at this time I had bet $80, I then wheeled the 7 in the exacta on top of the field for $1, that brings me to $99, I then keyed the 7 in the trifecta over 5 horses, which was another $20, so I had spent $119 on my bets, when race had completed I had 11 win tickets on the winner, had hit the exacta, and also had hit the trifecta, it was a decent day for me I think, I have not missed having a winning ticket, that is not just a $2 ticket, but a minimum of $10 on winner of Derby since 1989 when Sunday Silence won, that was a great race for me, being that I live in Oklahoma everyone here was betting on Clever Trevor on this day, so I made very, very good money on this Derby Day in 1989, I only made 3 bets that day, I put $50 to win on both Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, I then put a $50 exacta box on these two horses, it was a very good day, I just do not understand why handicappers only look at things against a horse, they do not look at some of the advantages that can come from the same things they are counting as only disadvantages, and I have forgotten the exact name of the horse, but it has been a few years, this horse paid over $60 to win, and that day I had a $20 win ticket on this horse, believe it or not.........

Gotta love the Derby. Scat Daddy, Hard Spun, Street Sense and Nobiz were the top 4 on my list. I liked HS best and bet him win/place, lesser on Scat Daddy. Also boxed my top four for $5 amongst other exacta bets. All said and done... including futures wagers... I won $100. Small victory to the plus side. Didn't think Street Sense would win... mainly because of the 2 prep at 3 rule. Well, we all continue to learn. SS looked awesome motoring around the turn and gobbling up real estate. Great race.

I only made 3 bets today (6 bucks)...2 to place on Street Sense, 2 to show on Circular Quay and 2 to show on Curlin. I love watching the Derby but betting just seems impossible for me. I was happy to walk away up 6 bucks, and glad to see the horse I like all along Street Sense came through. I think Calvin Borel needs to be considered one of the top jockeys in the nation. Every year, shoot everyday, he brings in long shots to win, and when he gets the favorite, he knows how to ride them. What a great race, and hats off to Hard Spun for a hell of a run under fast fractions. I'm sure we'll see the top 3 from this race in the Preakness for sure. I'm routing for Street Sense all the way!

Justin, I agree with you. Curlin was a bad bet both in terms of handicapping and value. I also had Sense and Hard Spun but did not have Curlin in 3rd slot of my tri..I guess it's "Curlin's Revenge"! for my bad-mouthing him all week...should be a great Preakness....good luck to you!

In a year that every horse was bucking some trend, I don't think you have to throw history books out. I don't think many are shocked by the end results of the race; I am shocked at Pletcher's performance. Cicular Quay ran huge having been off for 8 weeks, the rest stunk it up. AGS had every chance at the top of the stretch but as feared from earlier defeats, didn't show the heart down the lane. Figured Cowtown Cat would be cooked; especially with how he looked in the post parade; but what happened to Scatt Daddy?

Kevin,

The only way to make money consistently as a horseplayer is to find value. The Kentucky Derby is NOT just a horserace from a handicapping perspective, but it IS just a horse race from a betting perspective. Like in every other horserace of the year, you have to demand value. I liked Barbaro last year, but did not bet him to win because he was only 5-1 or so. Like everyone else who saw him train, I was not the slightest bit surprised that Barbaro won. I also saw Street Sense train, and what I saw was not enough to make me forget the fact that he had only raced twice this year.

I tried and tried and tried to post this on your blog re: Street Sense. But for whatever reason this site wouldn't post it????

Justin may have neglected a sensational pedigree in Rags To Riches, but certainly hasn't in Nobiz Like Shobiz.

However, might I suggest it's not too late to take a look at the pedigree of Street Sense to see where all the hype is - a well worn G1 pedigree...dare I say superstar pedigree and just has to place for mine!

Mentioned on Jill's blog that Street Sense had a proven big race pedigree and if Street Sense performed in KD133...then a certain class horse in Europe would be worth watching this coming European season (see below)

Placed : 06/04/2007 12:11:39 Bet Type : Doubles Stake : *****
1 bet @ ***** per bet Status

Kentucky Derby STREET SENSE @ 7.00 Won
Stan James 1000 Guineas MISS BEATRIX @ 17.00 Open

It was my first bet in KD133. Street Sense may you give Miss Beatrix all the strength I need...just as Street Cry and SHAMARDAL did you.

However, I did allow Forensic's win in the Golden Slipper sway me the way of Nobiz Like Shobiz and his performance [agree completely] was with NO EXCUSE!!

It's been fun and hope to see you all back here next year.

www.pedigreeperformance.com

Justin,
I think maybe handicappers try too hard to find value. The 2 horses in the exacta were the most impressive in works, and Curlin was the most impressive in races this year. There were plenty of angles to like so many of the value horses, but value doesn't mean anything if we don't cash a ticket. I committed the ultimate sin; bet SS, HS, Curlin exacta box. Same price, but won $200 less.
I would have bet "over all" to ever get the super.