So You Bet On Big Brown In The Kentucky Derby Future Wager

You left out Visionaire at 20-1 but its ok i got you covered....

John, I hope you're right, I'm right with you, although I laid off of Yankee Bravo and Adriano. I think having both Z Fortune and Blackberry Road covered is a great idea because at least one and were possibly both with be in the Kentucky Derby field, and if so, then either one or both should have much lower odds come Derby day. I had to bet more on Z Fortune to raise my basis in odds because I have been loading up the whole way on #22 and #23 tickets. Z Fortune could get a great trip Derby day, 2nd 3rd or 4th flight, he runs just slow enough to avoid the pace meltdown himself, while not too far out of it to get a run on the front runners. I agree also about Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.

I think Big Brown is a Fusaichi Pegasus type talent, and I would find it acceptable to take the same drop in odds that Fusaichi Pegasus did between pool 3 and derby day, just for the certainty that the weather is nice, the post draw isn't a disaster, and the horse isn't sweating like crazy on Derby day, and of course the foot questions. But if he goes into the race looking strong I won't hesitate to pull the trigger at low odds. One thing he has going for him with that light foundation is that he might not be completely exhausted after the Derby, and if he wins it he will be in great position to go for the Triple Crown.

Pyro, I like too much not to respect. I bet him this time at 5-1 and I think he'll be 7-2 or lower on Derby Day, so I think he has great odds. Colonel John put on a great show Saturday, and he looks legitimate and I like the breeding and connections, but I'm not feeling it for the Derby at all for some reason, and I think I'm going to play against with conviction.

John I agree with you too on Z Fortune, and Blackberry Road. I was at the Rebel last month, and will be at Oaklawn this weekend to watch the $1 million win and your in race. I think Blackberry Road has had nothing but bad luck in last 2 starts this year, and the 2 starts you mentioned last year. Hypothetically speaking, if he wins the Arkansas Derby, what do you think his odds will be on Derby day in May? I wish I would have put my 2 dollars this past weekend at 46-1. And Z Fortune just had a flat race in the Rebel. However, he seems more of a longshot than BB. If he didn't like the surface last time, I hope he'll like it after training there for a month. It's too bad Sierra Sunset got hurt. I think Gayego, Indian Sun, and the California shippers won't like the Oaklawn dirt, so I look for Blackberry Road to come rushing at the end to beat Z Fortune at the end, with Liberty Bull closing for third. Nobody is talking about him either. Ran a huge Winstar Derby. I think King's Silver Son will be 4th. Just don't see him beating these guys again.

I love Gayego and had to play him in the future at that price. If he makes the derby field, you won't get him at that. Also played Salute the Sarge. I like the polytrack to dirt angle and also if he runs at Churchill after winning the Lexington Stakes, he will probably be about half that price.

In Pool One had Giant Moon (didn't pan out) Smooth Air (at 159/1-like that one) Ana Nakal (a disappointment) and Z Humour (who I think has a crazy shot at winning) so my pool 3 pick is #24-all others- Got 14/1 and for that I get an added payoff if Z Humour should win, either Monba or Cowboy Cal or both for Pletcher, I'm thinking Jones will send a Filly, and Recapture the Gold who'll be trying to "pull a War Emblem" If nothing else I'll have quite a few horses covered since who'll actually make the field is still extremely wide open.

I got a nice sized wager on Colonel John at 19-1 in pool 1 and I am absolutely in love with that bet right now. It looks like he will be no worse than 8-1 on derby day now.

Remember guys, we may be getting better odds now then on derby day...

but the horse doesn't only have to make it to Churchill healthy on May 3rd...

but also must win the race!

So Mike Barker if the race was tomorrow who would your 2 pesos be on?

I may as well bet on a carriage horse in central park

Pyro and Visionaire and dont base it on saturdays race because churchill will be a whole different story as i said last year with Street Sense,,, Some horses just dont like Keeneland....

I do like Pyro and his connections, they don't like to lose but keep hearing he is too slow number wise. I think he just may have not shown us everything he has yet.

Well since hes a closer it all depends on how fast they go upfront so dont put to much into it, trust me when they go 46 and 1:10 in the derby he will be there at the end they wont....1 1/4 is a long haul...

John,

I played Adriano, Blackberry Road, My Pal Charlie, Tomcito and Z Fortune.

The time to play Big Brown was POOL 2!! His fantastic off the turf win occurred Wed March 5th, the week Pool 2 opened. The lid was off him then. "all others" closed at 13:2, or $15.00 even for $2. My $500 on him also includes adriano, recapturetheglory, z humor, the first and second place finishers of the ark derby, and all the others that were not a named entry of Pool 2. I estimate right now that 13 of the 20 in the gate will be part of Pool #2 "all others". Hoping that Jones gets brave with Eight Belles becasue she is very game and since she missed the break in the Fantasy they now know that she can rate.

By the way, Yankee Bravo was 4th, not 3rd (Coast Guard was 3rd) in the SA Derby and has no chance of making the Derby.

Pyro is a fraud as War Pass has proven to be. As of now, no one who ran a step in any of the FG preps, other than Pyro, has made the Derby. None. He has faced no one of consequence and runs weak times, passing tired horses, but there's always an excuse for him. Let's not forget that Pyro is 0-3 against the suspect War Pass. Distance will prove to be Pyro's enemy too.

PYRO A fraud? Yea ok hes a deep closer and now he cant get 1 1/4 ...What you made was a suckers bet on Big Brown or should i say Big Bounce because thats exactly what hes gonna do along with your $500 ...You should of went out and bought yourself some groceries with that money...Oh and you have Adriano who bounces every other race, i look for him to not hit the ticket his next out...Oh and you have Recapturetheglory who is absolutely gonna get burnt by War Pass on the lead and you have Z Humor who has only won one race besides his maiden at Delta Downs?? Im sorry to say but the fraud is you and when you signed up on this site you did the right thing by picking your name FOOL.......

Thanks for all of your concern Mikey. What 'all others' offered P2 was VALUE. I'll have 13 horses covered, and you'll have...well, I guess we don't know since you haven't clearly stated. Or are we presuming you like Pyro and Visonaire, which you were making an excuse for already in the BG!? Visionaire better like Keeneland, or he won't make the Derby - he sits approx #20 so good luck sucker with that. As for Street Sense beaten less than 1 in last year's BG, and "not liking keeneland" what are you talking about. Looked like he loved it, or else he wouldn't have been in the photo.

War Pass will be declared fromn the Derby next week. No need to further damage the reputation. Should be pointed to the Met Mile, rather than be beated badly at 15-1 in Derby.

Bounce, what is a bounce? No such thing - another poorman's angle. If you were looking for a bounce from Brown, it would have been in the FL Derby off only 24 days. 37 to the Derby is perfect - not that I care if Brown wins. I'll have 13 animals covered...see you 5/4.

$750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland April 12, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds, Polytrack

1.Cool Coal Man, Kent Desormeaux, 4-1
2.Kentucky Bear, Jamie Theriot, 50-1
3.Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez, 15-1
4.Stevil, no rider, 30-1
5.Monba, Edgar Prado, 15-1
6.Big Truck, Eibar Coa, 6-1
7.Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan, even money
8.Stone Bird, Corey Lanerie, 50-1
9.Medjool, Michael Baze, 30-1
10.Miner’s Claim, Patrick Husbands, 20-1
11.Halo Najib, Garrett Gomez, 15-1
12.Visionaire, Jose Lezcano, 6-1

Mikey,

You're exactly right that that race pace sets up for a closer - but you're going to need that big time bounce from BB, cuz there's no way Pyro catches him if they go 1:10 for 6F. In his last couple, Pyro has started out in the 1:14 range - and that's not going to cut it against BB's speed kind of speed. And that's not even considering the kind of traffic Pyro will have to negotiate from that far back. Maybe Pyro should pick up Borel!

Still, a very intriguing race.

WP, BB, and RTG (and BBJ?) away on the lead. Cool Coal Man, Smooth Air and Big Truck in striking range. Colonel John, Pyro, and Tomcito as deep closers. Very, very interesting.

Why is Tomcito still being mentioned on this site? Honestly the horse has zero chance to win the derby and he probably won't even make the field.

If he goes in the Lexington Stakes he will not finish in the top 2. Those spots will be held down by Salute the Sarge and Sporting Art.

Sorry for all you Tomcito lovers. That horse sucks!

Cdpotato4 - With 150K+ earnings he will be guaranteed a spot in the starting gate. As always, opinions vary and you are entitled to your own. However, so too, is everyone else. I will guarantee you this much, he will finish in the top 5 in the Derby - just wait and see. He belongs and deserves a shot to run as much as any other horse in the field. No need to worry about the Lexington, it's not going to happen. Count on it - he will be running in the Derby and there at the end.

Wow! $500 on BB. Can't tell which horse you will be backing on Derby day. Although, I will admit to not being a fan of Pyro, he is THE horse to beat. Regardless, of his performance on Saturday he is still at the top. I do have a hunch he will not be fully cranked for the BG and barring he takes to the track will run well. However, he will not be full out to win and probably finish ITM. I like Big Truck and Visionaire to be there at the wire with Pyro coming on for third. Again, this is barring he takes to the track. Of course, he could run lights out and blow them away, but I doubt it.

Mike - What are your thoughts on this one?

My $500 in on BB as part of the Pool 2 field (aka all others). We was not a separate named entry at that time because he ran the big allowance at GP on wednesday of the week P2 came out and the pool names were selected on Monday. So, all others (post #24) went off at exactly 13/2, paying $15.00 for $2. AS part of the all others, I have Tomcito, which I do beleive has an excellent chance of beating at least half of the field and could get his named called inside the 1/16th.

I am just glad that I had the sense to take "all others" in Pool 2. Denis of Dork is the funniest. Bet down to like 13-1 in P2, yet he hadn't anywhere near enough $$ to get in. He was just mismanaged. They can say they were making plans according to the "sheets" trends, but I think they were just looking for a sodt spot to pick up a check and it back fired.

As for Pyro on Saturday. Kee will be playing fair (or better) to closers as it has for the past week, and he'll have no excuses. If he gets traffic problems, fails to make up ground against a real pace, etc the reason is already known "he doesn't like poly" and if it rains, as it is forecasted "he was already known not to as shown in the BC". When he runs a 3rd stright beyer <98 he'll somwehow explain it away. His reputation is made by running 2nd 3 straight races to War Pass, yet has beaten dogs this year at FG. I repeat, no one who ran in a FG race this year (of any type!) is in the top 20 $.

I'll take Stervil, Zito's 30:1 shot for LaPenta. Maybe then they'll cut war pass a break becasue they can run this guy in the derby. Zito is sadly but surely, acting a lot more like Lukas in his old age, trotting is horses with no credentials in hope of a miracle.

Considering the horses that will not run in the Derby and are currently in the top 20 (fillies/sprinters/injured), Visionaire will most certainly be in the top 20. Not to mention, normal earnings cut off is typically 100k (he has 180k before Saturday). So, I wouldn't exactly call a GSW a "dog." Save your money as Stevil will be used as a rabbit for Cool Coal Man and has no shot at winning.

I love Visionaire and Pyro cant split them :) If i do the other will beat me...

Derbyfan,

I believe Stevil is a one run closer and Cool Coal Man stalks or presses... Not to mention the other two top choices would benefit from a fast pace. Rethink the strategy. Agree that Visionaire is no dog despite Matz calling him an "overacheiver".

Foolsdance,
As much as I hope Pyro gets beat in the derby for my own sake, I think it's a bit early to call him a "fraud". Say you want to see more if you'd like, but he's made some special moves. As you know, fast pace favors closers, and the faster they go early, typically the faster the final time, one reason Beyers are less reliable on turf and some synths. Pyro has shown he can run fast posting 100+ Beyer at 2. That said, I hope you cash your ticket and that it's Big Brown that wins it for you.

Cd,
Tomcito's run in the Florida Derby was mildly impressive off the break, at least as impressive as Court Visions grinding runs. Those types often pick up a piece, and occassionally win if the race falls apart. It's easy to see how he won at 12f. He has yet to prove he belongs at the top, but I don't think a 3rd in a GR 1 off the shelf while making up ground late on a speed favoring course disquallifies him, nor do I think such a finish means the horse "sucks".

Mike,

Agree that Keeneland is quirky for horses with solid dirt form (CCM, Pyro, and Visionaire). Just in this first week, Kodiak Kowboy who should have been a lock and Proud Spell who has gone the Pyro path both badly disappointed. I'll probably try Medjool again, although his recent slow work may mean he's over the top. I'll check out his work pattern when the pps come out.

Looking for any suggestions on picks for the derby. I'm thinking about using Winning Ponies, cuz their picks last year were good... any suggestions?

http://www.winningponies.com/results/picks/tips/Kentucky-Derby-2007.html

TheCapper,

How about using your brain?!?!

The biggest mistake a handicapper can make is getting his bets from someone else. Then you watch your horse draw off by 6 lengths and pay $16.00 to win!

Yeah if you can't figure it out just go with the second favorite, or if your really like him, go with the favorite.

well just to wrap this chat up, Big Brown proves he is much the best, as Pyro is finally revealed once and for all as a fraud unlikely to be heard from again except in places like the Super derby and Indiana Derbies. I am NOT a chalk player, but the "all others" in the 2nd pool was closed on the Sunday following his allowance win at GP on wednesday. had that performance occurred the wednesday before Battaglia picked the 1-23 named horses BB would have been included, and bet hard.

Have fun, and we'l be doing it again!