Can Anybody Win This Thing?

John,

I agree it is a strange year, but it is strange when a horse runs a 120 Beyer in a prep race too, like Bellamy Road did a few years back, and this year you've had fog, polytrack, dirt, cushion track, etc. and the loss of potential superstar Georgie Boy and Drill Down, as well as Crown of Thorns and Sierra Sunset from the potential field, so there are a lot of voids to fill with War Pass and Pyro both throwing in a clunker of a race late in the process. I need to look more closely at Gayego's pedigree but he is a 3 syllable horse starting with G, ending with O, ridden by Mike Smith...just kidding, but he ran a huge race yesterday, maybe a good enough race to win a Derby. But that's 2 top effort races in a row for him losing last time to Georgie Boy in a thriller as well. So even if Gayego is the real deal, will he bounce? If Big Brown can run a 106 in career start #3 why can't he run a 112 in the Derby? It looks like a 106 would win this year anyway. I guess 3-1 on the future wager was a good price after all, as he'll be down at 2-1 or so Derby day I think. Big Brown's positives are good, ignore the negatives.

This will no doubt be the dumbest comment on this blog...but has anyone noticed how much Eight Belles and Monba look alike? I'm not saying Monba can't win, and I have been asking Jill Byrne several weeks back to include Eight Belles in her top 10. My fear about this year is that the Derby gods love a story, no they LOVE a story. So Big Brown goes off as the favorite. Not only is that a jinx, but no 2 year old foundation. The first horse to win without a two year old foundation in x amount of years and to break the myth of "no feet, no horse".

How about Smooth Air? He is the only one breezing a mile as his works the past two months. Slightly unconventional, though makes since with his pedigree. His trainer is 70 with his first Derby entry. He has been one of the more consistent ITM.

Col. John can try and make everyone not hate the synthetics...or hate them more. If he had faster Beyers he'd be dominating as the favorite after this last sat. What about Nakatani being 0-13 in the Derby, breaking a collarbone and haveng Gomez (who is pretty great :)) take the mount for the Sham only to get the mount "back". Harty a Baffert prodigy, when Baffert currently has nothing and has had nothing for the Derby this year. I see the mountains behind Santa Anita in the early morning light and My Old Kentucky Home playing in a pre-race story there.

Eight Belles. The simple fact that a filly closed out the Triple Crown last year and could start it this year....??????

Pyro..the Winchell family has been aiming for this for how long? He's been their best shot.???

I keep going over the charts, speed figs, Beyers, etc. but part of me wants to bet on who has the best story as we are due for history to get "bucked off".

Wished I hadn't read the first blog.:) Now I think I have to try some a,b/a,b,c/b,c,d trifecta with Gayego and Smith aboard.

Gayego wins does it for me. Lets me know the track at Santa Anita is genuine.

Colonel John is your likely winner. Forget the beyers, they have nothing to do with the consistent winner behavior in the horse. If Colonel John had won the Cash Call (and should have?). He would be the Derby favorite and likely winners. Undefeated around two turns and toppled the west in only two starts at three.

It would be a show down between War Pass and Colonel John, the speedster versus the Closer. This has been the real Derby in my mind all along.

War Pass is elevated back up to the Champ status. Pyro race is a wash as War Pass race is a wash. Pyro and War Pass will run huge on Derby Day with Colonel John.

War Pass repeals everything from the time the gates open. Colonel John and Pyro picks him up late.

By the way! has any horse ever won the K-Derby from all prep races ran on one track only?

To answer Barry....I think Sunday Silence and maybe Winning colors did it that way.............The Blue Grass put a whammy on my thoughts about the top 5 BUT...Monba and Cowboy Cal were never in my top 5 and still aren't...Col. John and Big Brown have done nothing wrong...others without hiccups are harder to find...War Pass and everyone else from the Wood has made at least one bad attempt...Gayego lost to Georgie Boy and Bob Black Jack and...he just barely beat Z Fortune who lost to Pyro and denis of Cork...The latter ran badly in the Ill.Derby( although his record shows a fondness for Churchill)...and Pyro is considered too slow by sheets players...and his Blue Grass was ugly..if thats the result they were after...just a competitive workout...well seems like they could have picked a more useful spot...at least on dirt.................Adriano won the lanes end on poly against who?..Medjool and Halo Najib..both way up the track in the Blue Grass.........his only dirt race (FOY) was ugly with a capital UG............Smooth air has lost to Fierce Wind....there isnt much left...most other contenders have folded their tent and headed home....the rest probably have no chance....so I guess either Big Brown repeats his Fla. Derby and romps....or Colonel John catches him at the wire....thats my guess

John,
I see that you've dropped Z Fortune off of your Top 10? No horse in any of the preps is more battle tested than he. Heck, He's probably run the Derby distance in at least (2) of his preps. I'm not a Beyer figures person, especially in the Derby. I see this race going in 1:09 for the 1st 6f. Anyone horse within (6) lengths of this pace is done. I see him saving ground(something that's been impossible given his last (3) position draws) and having 1st run at the leaders. It is him they'll have to catch with an 1/8th of mile to finish. I hope Albarado stays and gets his 1st Derby win this year. This promises to be a great finish this year. This is the wagon everyone should be jumping on.
SDI1958

Appreciate your position on Z Fortune but watch the stretch run of the Ark. Derby...he never gained an inch on Gayego the last 1/8th and probably wouldnt have passed him if they went around again........I like Z Fortune a little but really think he is slightly less than a top 3 in this race

The Derby preps this year have been so confusing that at this point that a case could be made for at least 12 horses and nobody could criticise the selection of any as foolish. That aside I think that COlonel JOhn and Big Brown are deserving of joint favouritism. Big Brown has shown to be the fastest of the lot on dirt at a mile and 1/8 and Colonel JOhn has been the best at Santa Anita where horses such as Gayego and Sierra Sunset to mention a couple have translated their form well to dirt. I'll still also like Pyro if he trains well at Churchill as I know he's better than that on dirt. War Pass will be burnt on the front end. I like Gayego, Smooth Air, Tomcito and Denis of Cork to possibly fill the minors. Eight Belles will flop just like her sire did.

So people say Pyro isnt fast enough well could someone tell me who is then...Besides BB a run away winner last out on a souped up speed favoring track no one is knocking out 100 plus figures...Have people just lost there common sense when it comes to handicapping...IF Pyro is a closer he cannot help that upfront there going slow which is why his numbers are a little off from last year...If you look at the races in which War Pass was flying on the front end like he will be on Derby Day those numbers turned out to be very high...Him running a dud is a blessing in disquise now i will be able to make alot more $$ on him because people think that if you dont win every race your just a terrible horse....Ask yourself this why would Pyro want to win the Bluegrass and go all out and have nothing left in the tank For the first saturday in MAY?????? I already have Visionaire covered in the pools so ill be rooting for either of them....

tracmonster, it is indeed a tough year especially to play the superfecta, but this is the year to hit one out of the park like 2005 if possible. Z Fortune never raced against Denis of Cork( Denis of Cork took that race off) and yes, he did lose to Pyro in Pyro's best career race, the one that stamped him a derby contender, while carrying 6 more pounds that Pyro at a mile and a sixteenth. Z Fortune is not a lock but should not be overlooked.

Mike, what an incredible Blue Grass...I can't totally give up on Pyro, in fact I've already got him covered significantly for the win, but I do think Gayego and Z Fortune both ran a 103, so that goes well with Big Brown's 106, and is in the ballpark of what you need to win the Derby. If Big Brown can rate he will get the perfect setup. The faster the pace the better for Z Fortune. If the pace were faster in the Arkansas, Gayego wouldn't have held up I think, and Fortune would have won it. And I think there is near unanimous agreement that the Kentucky Derby pace will be ridiculous.

Tracmonster,

Gayego actually beat Bob Black Jack, he didn't lose and he beat him by more than Colonel John.

1. Pyro
I will forgive him for his BG effort over poly.

2. Gayego
Looked great digging in while pressing fast fractions at Oaklawn.

3. Recapturetheglory
He looks to be as logical as anyone else.

4. Z Fortune
Good effort vs. #2

5. Salute the Sarge
Given what has happened recently, they may run him after he draws away on Saturday.

I was wrong about Z Fortune, his Siphon breeding can carry him 10f, though I'm still not convinced he wouldn't be better going shorter. He ran a great race though (wide first turn).

Bob Black Jack is fast enough to win if he gets in. I know Colonel John and Georgie Boy ran by him, but that track favors closers in a ridiculous way. He'll move up on dirt just like Gayego did.

Pyro's effort is a toss, but I'm still thinking he's a toss. General rule of handicapping is that a horse peaks in his 3rd start off the layoff, however, a horse has to have 3 preps BEFORE for the derby. One would imagine this means a horse would peak before the Derby. But in order to be fit enough to get 10f against the best of the best, I think you have to have had a tough 9f race (a peak effort). Horses that peak in the race before the Derby tend to have a fitness edge on those who haven't peaked or ran a hard 9f race.

Barbaro, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Charismatic, Real Quiet, etc. etc. ALL topped 100 Beyer figs in their last prep. In fact, since 1992, only 3 winners (Street Sense, Sea Hero, and Giacomo) have won the Derby without earning a 100+ Beyer in the prep IMEDIATELY before the derby. Of the 13 who did that, 9 of them had run a 107 or better in their last prep - faster than any of this year's 3 year olds have run with the exception of Bob Black Jack's 109 BSF world record at 6f, and 8 of them had run 100+ in their last 2 starts. Of the last 16 winners, 14 have posted at least 1 100+ Beyer in their career, and 12 did it more than once! Of those 12, only Street Sense didn't top 100 in his final prep. ALL 14 topped 100+ as a 3-y-old.

Contenders that have topped 100+ Beyer in their last 2 races:
1. Big Brown (106, 104)

Additional Contenders who ran 100+ in their last prep:
1. Gayego (103)
2. Z Fortune (102)
3. Recapturetheglory (102)

Contenders with multiple 100+, NO ONE has more than 2:
1. Big Brown (106, 104)
2. Gayego (103, 102)
3. War Pass* (92, 53, 97, 113, 103)
4. Pyro* (?, 95, 90, 105, 100)
* topped 100 twice at 2, none at 3

Additional Contenders with 1 100+ figure NOT in their last prep.
1. Bob Black Jack (109 at 6f)
2. Eight Belles (100 in allowance win, 99 in final prep (fantasy at 8.5f)

There you have it. Not an impressive bunch. 2 of the horses (pyro and war pass) fast enough to win it, haven't run as fast at 3 in 6 starts as they ran at 2. All of the contenders with the exception of Pyro have mostly sprinter/miler oriented pedigrees.

Big Brown seems to fit the profile of past derby winners best, but there's those other stats...

Colonel John will win this thing like Street Sense last year, only he won't be as far back early. I am a beyer speed figure guy myself, and him not running a 100+ figure doesn't even bother me in the least. Those figues out there on synthetic surfaces in California are GARBAGE. I bet his daddy tiznow in BOTH 1 1/4 m dirt classics and have ZERO doubt he will handle the surface, infact, I think he will be a lot better (atleast figure wise). If you are able to not look at any figures, beyer or otherwise, and watch all the prep replays from last year to this year, and even look at final times, 1/8ths, whatever, just not speed figures, Colonel John looks as good a standout as I can remember.

CDpotato,...........your right...gayego finished ahead of BBJ in the Georgie Boy race but you miss my point...Im not really trying to discount gayego's two good runs...Z Fortune hasnt beat anybody and it wasnt denis of Cork,sorry it was Sierra Sunset...is that better or worse?...Someone mentioned Salute the sarge...he only lost to Georgie Boy by 1/2 a length and then took some time...won his first back and he could be dangerous...he was highly regarded in Ca. earlier...Talking more about speed...If war Pass wants the lead enough to committ suicide..he can probably get it....Bob Black Jack is very fast and Flores knows theres going to be a charge for the front...Im sure post position will matter as well....Cowboy Cal and My Pal Charlie have shown speed as well...but not the kind that War Pass and BBJ have....so it might not be as crowded up there as one would think......anyway....May 3rd should be one very interesting race....and if we all agreed...one horse would be 1 to 9..and everybody else real long......thats why they run the race....so good luck and you can say you told me so after the race.............maybe

Why all this hype over Eight Belles? So she won a couple of races by huge magins over nothing truly notable - hardly the first horse to do that sort of thing.
She was hard pressed for the Fanasty win a couple of weeks ago and that hardly inspires mile and a quarter (against top colts) type confidence.

If her connections have their way and she does go to the Derby I think she'll find at least ten others in the field who are a bit tougher than Pure Clan. She should stick to the Oaks because on Derby Day you'll find out she is more like Althea than Winning Colors.

I agree Tomtou, I dont even think Eight Belles is the best filly. Bsharpsonata, Country Star, and her stablemate Proud Spell are all better in my opinion. What has she faced? Not a seasoned top class filly from what I have seen so far. I just hope she goes in the Oaks and is the favorite so I can beat her. But we'll save the OAKS talk for the oaks blog, It's almost Derby time.

It appears this might just be a Giacomo kind of year. A lot of early speed in here, especially with the fact that Recapturetheglory is "going to lead." I think it might be 22 and change, 45/change maybe 46 flat, 1:10/change, 1:35, and 201/change. Front runners will falter and whoever can have that closing kick and stay clear of traffic should win. I think the winner comes from the second pack gets first run and has enough to hold on late. Personally I hope there is no Giacomo out there becuase I think Big Brown will be the one but I also like colonel john. He has already proved he can go fast and might be able to carry it that extra furlong. Dont really like anyone from Arkansas and Wood looks suspect. My prediction is that Zito announces Derby week that War Pass is out with some BS injury because he doesnt stand a chance. He will be going to fast early to get the lead since obviously he has to have it, and will falter to maybe finish 12th. I think one to watch may just be Court Vision. Can he win probably not, but definate chance for a minor. Gomez on top, Two decent 3rd place finishes on what were speed favoring tracks "on the day," and proof he can fly home at CD in earlier races. Yes he doesn't have good Beyers and probably isn't fast enough but can he come home in less than 26 seconds, YEP. They will be crawling back to the field May 3 and he will be gobbling up the ground. Closers that have shot home to get at least 4th, Atswhatimtalkinabout, Giacomo, Imawildandcrazyguy, and Jazil. He could be one in the bunch, just dont leave him out of the exotics because he will be a price. Also, watch out for Cowboy Cal. This horse has done nothing wrong except for his first race. Reminds me of Bluegrass Cat from a couple of years ago.

Pyro proved that he too is a fraud. But, fear not Mikey and friends! He simply didn't like Poly - no way that slow horse couldn't just stink? Enjoy your 6-1 in the Derby. Load up with both hands.

Remember, Street Sense ran 2nd. Pyro saved ground and was hit no fewer than 5 times left handed through the stretch. I say no fewer because the camera panned forward towards the leaders as Shaun hit him again and Pyro left the screen. Gotta love the way Shaun continue to ask for run, and got none! No one is saying the jock wrapped him up because he was being ridden aggressively.

Pyro didn't need to win, but he needed to show he belongs, and clearly he doesn't. War Pass owns 3 wins over him. What does that tell you? And then ask, WHO HAS PYRO BEATEN? Z Fortune? Wow. Z Fortune lives in my closet with all the other hangers. Hung in Illinois, and hung in Ark. Pyro passed him and Blackberry Road with a running line that should have said "passed tiring horses" because that's all Pyro has ever done.

BB should win the derby with ease and pay $6.20. But, don't sell Eight Belles short. She is VERY game, runs hard and runs fast. Stumbled at the break of the Fantasy so she had to rate for the first time, and looked beat at the 1/8th and wore down the leader - NOT big margin Tomto. Watch the races on Youtube. Might not have the heart to run with BB inside the 1/16th but she can get a big piece.

Hey at least Visionaire wasn't totally embarassed. A solid miler Mikey.

After seeing everything I have seen, I have my own views. I understand the hype with Big Brown, but he is a speed horse who is still lightly raced and I feel there will be enough spped in the Derby to compromise his chances. That leaves me with the two best closer, in my opinion.

1.) Colonel John - his last race was fantastic and he looked like a horse who wanted to go 1 1/4 miles. I like him.

2.) Adriano - I have been on this horse since early in the year. He ran a turf race the same day as Einstein and was only a few ticks off of him. To me it was a solid race. The Fountain of Youth track was a mess and i wouldn't hold that against him. He showed his true colors in the Lane's End.

Both these horses have what I think might be a move that worked last year year - POLY to DIRT. If anyone remembers, Street Sense ran an acceptable race over the POLY and then ruled in the Debry. Colonel John and Adriano have a chance to do the same. Adriano also has the Barbaro TURF to DIRT angle - and his main competition in earlier turf wars, Cowboy Cal, shows the strength of this years turfers.

I think Big Brown can be compromised and these two will show up down the stretch at Churchhill.

If I saw the video right, it looked like Pyro was foolin' with the horse next to him rather than paying attention to the race. I wouldn't hold the Bluegrass against him.
I think Asmussen needs to work on his strategy for Churchill rather than worrying about his horse. Shaun needs to bring out the best in his horse, that's all. I'm still a believer. The race was clumpy and bumpy. The field will be stretched out at
134 because of War Pass and Big Brown. I think that will work to Pyro's advantage.

Mr. Asher:

I can appreciate that the preps this year have generally been a disappointment. But it baffles me as to why you say this:

"Fountain of Youth (GII) at Gulfstream Park, a race that has hardly been a key race for Derby contenders this spring."

By my count, the FOY produced 7 (out of 12) stakes-placed runners in derby preps (Adriano, Halo Najib, Kentucky Bear, Monba, Court Vision, Golden Spikes, Z Humor). A list which includes two winners. In addition, six of the runners (including the not mentioned Cool Coal Man and Anak Nakal), will start in the derby.

None of these horses are great, but you'd be hard pressed to find another prep that sends half of it's 12 horse field to the derby.

Fool there just might be 19 tired horses next month eh?? I am using the Colonel for sure with his running style even though his #'s arent real high, because if theres a melt down on the lead it wont matter anyway...

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44598

Doing a little searching for answers to why the outcome of the Blue Grass seemed upside down and I came up with a couple of ideas.............Pyro could have stayed on dirt and had a legit pace to close at in the Arkansas derby and Asmussen was there with Z Fortune..he probably didnt want them to butt heads and Pyro has a tiny commute to Churchill for May 3rd...ALSO Asmussen is very crafty and knows that the Breeders cup is at santa Anita in 2008 (and 09 for that matter) and it would give him an idea of how Pyro would handle polytrack...Look at the way he has orchestrated Curlin's '08 racing season in Dubai...makes me think he has a bigger long range plan than just winning a given prep race...so Pyro had a mile and one eigth work in about 1:52....what's so bad?...not so sure about Cool Coal Man's race. Maybe looking at the demise of Elysium Fields, Anak Nakal,etc....CCM isnt really that good after all...KD is riding Big Brown so he thinks that one is much better...the pace of the Blue Grass was a little slow like the Sham when El Gato Malo couldnt get by Colonel John so it took away the kick of some of the closers like Visionaire...not sure how good he really is either...he ran down Texas Wildcatter but that one isnt going anywhere...Todd Pletcher was in desperate straights to get somebody in the Derby and the slower pace helped his two sustain a winning run and allow them both enough earnings to make it in...they wont get that kind of pace at Churchill....so where are we?...Of the Closers I still like Pyro and Colonel John...and of the speed stalker types..Big Brown and maybe tale of Ekati...have to think thats where Prado will end up...anyway...I am not making much of the Blue grass one way or the other...just trying to be objective and not jump on any bandwagon...or off for no good reason...would love to get into a good discussion about it.....good racing luck to you all.......

Santa Anita and Keeneland have completely different tracks. That had absolutely nothing to do with it.

so thats what Im trying to find out....what did it have to do with it? and also most of the discussion about synthetics doesnt differentiate between types of poly....most are just trying to figure if poly form and dirt form will translate....I personally think its easier for a good horse to go from poly to dirt than the opposite...they dont seem to skip over it or handle it like dirt....but if they begin there and have no dirt form...seems more often than not they take to dirt okay....really,all poly tracks are different and so are some dirt tracks,so what really matters is if the horse likes the surface that day....dont you agree at least a bit?

I agree Pyro will run back to form on DIRT

Mike yeah if Pyro only had 2 starts this year and the Blue Grass was one of them, I'd be a lot more worried about him. Maybe Asmussen wanted 2 and a half starts! But seriously he has enough fitness and foundation and it would likely be better for him to run the way he did than to overdo it. Big Truck and Cool Coal Man both also running poorly makes it a lot easier to accept Pyro's performance Saturday. If you look at Pyro in the derby, you know he can maneuver in tight quarters to get his run on in the stretch, but Colonel John apparently likes to be wide open in the clear before he will really kick it in gear, and there is no guarantee that Colonel John will get such a smooth trip in the Derby. I think, of the two, that Pyro has shown he can handle traffic a lot better.

...Cool...Im sure this years derby will be a good and very competitive race....since it seems like so many horses are what I call in and outers....good one time...no so good the next....an affinity for dirt...Churchill...longer distances...a good kick....great early speed.......sets it up to be very interesting....and I doubt if anyone will be as low as 2 to 1....with all of the varying opinions the fav could end up 4 to 1 and result in good prices across the board.....thats what Im hoping....and the 10 cent super looks like a great play

Oh yeah....just remembered one more thing..................can anyone tell me why Big Brown got a 106 beyer and Col. John a 95 and they ran exactly the same time in the same grade of race....doesnt make sense to me but beyers never really have...if someone understands..please tell me

tracmonster, I think the different speed figure even with the same time for the race means the one doing the calculations determined that one track was playing faster or was more difficult to run that time over for the same distance. It is human judgment, its not all scientific too...I am pretty sure. I'm sure someone could provide a better answer than I can, but the whole idea of the beyer scale is to let you know who ran fast when track condition is taken into account.

BSF's also take into account margin of victory.....hence, the difference in numbers between the two horses...

Okay.thanks Pat...that makes as much sense as anything else...but margin of victory shouldnt matter...if you broke the track record and you beat somebody by a nose...it meant you were up against a good horse....

tracmonster,

The numbers also take into account track variance, or how fast the track is playing that particular day compared to how it normally runs. The real answer to your question, though, is that Santa Anita just plain runs faster than other tracks. Horses skip over that synth which is why the track plays to horses with a big turn of foot. Whoever can come home quickest usually wins. Gulfstream as been an incredibly tiring track this year. Every quarter is usually slower than the previous, at least in routes, and the deepness tends to make it hard to quicken giving an advantage to those already in front. Big Brown ran the fastest 9f race of any 3-y-o at Gulfstream this year, and probably in the last few years. I don't even think Barbaro could break 1:49 there.

Finally, the track variance mentioned, seems to take into consideration the times ran over the rock hard "cushion" track that produced ridiculous times. The new track plays MUCH slower, and if the old fast times are considered, the more recent races should earn higher numbers than they have. At the same time, I've never been completely sold on Colonel John being more than a high class grinder.

Derbyme - Kudos on the CJ comment. I think he's the best of the synthetic horses, but refuse to endorse him on the big day. Also, am doubtful he can reproduce his synthetic races his first trip on conventional dirt. Not to mention, this first trip is in the KD! I don't care his about his sire or sire's performance at Churchill, etc., none of that is relevant, as he is yet to set foot at the Downs. Honestly think his first trip on dirt will be much like Pyro's first trip on synthetic - AWFUL! Definitely looking elsewhere......