Weekend thoughts

I appreciate your thoughts and analysis... well said. I learn something from you every time. Cheers!

Yes. I am the worst Road To The Roses player in history. I always pick phony allowance winners and horses who get hurt. I have no chance.

Well, I think you may be right about Into Mischief. Hopefully he can earn me a few points out west, but, what the heck-I can only activate 5 on Derby Day anyway! Really considered betting Z Fortune yesterday in Pool One, but didn't "pull the trigger" (Smooth Air was too juicy of a price-called an audible)

I agree totally i wanted to bet my $200 in winnings Saturday on Pyro but Sunday about 5:30 he was still sitting at 5-1...Last year i did the same thing with Street Sense but i got him at paying 22.80 which i thought was a steal...So i went and bet the $200 on Country Star instead, ill take the 11.80 because if she wins her next two theres no way she will be above 6-5 Oaks Day....Myself i cant see Indian Blessing getting the distance...I could be wrong maybe 5-1 on Pyro is a steal if he comes back out and Bombs the Louisiana Derby and rolls into Ky the favorite..

Pyro looked awesome and I know the final time wasn't that great... but a 90 Beyer? Seems too low to me.

I like Z Fortune (should be able to run longer) and thought he ran a solid race from his 11 post. Put a moderate sized bet on him in the Futures as I thought he was great value at 37-1.

As far as Into Mischief goes... I don't like his chances if he gets to the Derby. That said, I think he was a short horse going into the SV. Mandella said as much prior to the race as he couldn't get him cranked due to the weather and race track condition for training. Anyways, I think he'll run solid at 1 1/16 and maybe even a 1 1/8.

I have doubts about Georgie Boy as the distances get longer. I know he's looked solid with his come from behind bursts in sprints. But he hasn't even run a 2-turn race yet. Guess we'll find out about him if he runs in the Sham.

At this point in Derby season... like Colonel John, Z Fortune, and Monba best.

Pyro looked awesome and I know the final time wasn't that great... but a 90 Beyer? Seems too low to me.

I like Z Fortune (should be able to run longer) and thought he ran a solid race from his 11 post. Put a moderate sized bet on him in the Futures as I thought he was great value at 37-1.

As far as Into Mischief goes... I don't like his chances if he gets to the Derby. That said, I think he was a short horse going into the SV. Mandella said as much prior to the race as he couldn't get him cranked due to the weather and race track condition for training. Anyways, I think he'll run solid at 1 1/16 and maybe even a 1 1/8.

I have doubts about Georgie Boy as the distances get longer. I know he's looked solid with his come from behind bursts in sprints. But he hasn't even run a 2-turn race yet. Guess we'll find out about him if he runs in the Sham.

At this point in Derby season... like Colonel John, Z Fortune, and Monba best.

Pyro looked awesome and I know the final time wasn't that great... but a 90 Beyer? Seems too low to me.

I like Z Fortune (should be able to run longer) and thought he ran a solid race from his 11 post. Put a moderate sized bet on him in the Futures as I thought he was great value at 37-1.

As far as Into Mischief goes... I don't like his chances if he gets to the Derby. That said, I think he was a short horse going into the SV. Mandella said as much prior to the race as he couldn't get him cranked due to the weather and race track condition for training. Anyways, I think he'll run solid at 1 1/16 and maybe even a 1 1/8.

I have doubts about Georgie Boy as the distances get longer. I know he's looked solid with his come from behind bursts in sprints. But he hasn't even run a 2-turn race yet. Guess we'll find out about him if he runs in the Sham.

At this point in Derby season... like Colonel John, Z Fortune, and Monba best.

Pyro looked awesome and I know the final time wasn't that great... but a 90 Beyer? Seems too low to me.

I like Z Fortune (should be able to run longer) and thought he ran a solid race from his 11 post. Put a moderate sized bet on him in the Futures as I thought he was great value at 37-1.

As far as Into Mischief goes... I don't like his chances if he gets to the Derby. That said, I think he was a short horse going into the SV. Mandella said as much prior to the race as he couldn't get him cranked due to the weather and race track condition for training. Anyways, I think he'll run solid at 1 1/16 and maybe even a 1 1/8.

I have doubts about Georgie Boy as the distances get longer. I know he's looked solid with his come from behind bursts in sprints. But he hasn't even run a 2-turn race yet. Guess we'll find out about him if he runs in the Sham.

At this point in Derby season... like Colonel John, Z Fortune, and Monba best.

SORRY about the 3 posts! Didn't realize they were up as I was hitting the Preview button but seeing nothing.

The Risen Star was absolutely a breathtaking performance by Pyro. To close like that off of such slow fractions was amazing.

I ended up taking Colonel John with my future wager bet. He looks like one of the best horses out on the west coast right now. He will probably only get two preps this year with the Sham and Santa Anita derby the two targets. I see him probably losing the Sham off of a long layoff and then coming back and taking the Santa Anita Derby. That should put him at about 10-1 on derby day. I would have liked to get him at 30-1 or so but I am pleased with 19-1.

I guess you guys all took Z Fortune down to 37 from what Saturday night I hoped would hold steady at 50-1...Man those beyer numbers are to be taken with salt...I put a little on Cowboy Cal and 3 times as much on Crown of Thorns and ten times as much on Z Fortune, I was afraid he wouldn't be an individual betting interest next time and that I'd better get some representaion now. I believe now though that Pyro is for real, but I couldn't bet a horse at 5-1 on race day.

I just dont understand???? OK big bad PYRO beats all the other horses....... Except War Pass. Have we seen this before????? Oh yeah the previous 3 races before this one. All of the so called proffessionals are saying PYRO is 'The one to beat'?? He has never even touched WAR PASS. If war pass was in the Risen star do you think it would have been 144 and change?? No it would have been 142 and Pyro would have been second by 3-4 lenghts. Someone explain the HYPE. please

War Pass is a true speed front runner and is unrateable there is no way he gets 1 1/4

war pass honour and glory

So the great War Pass cant even come off the shelf in a stakes race he has to go to an allowance race the weekend of the 24th at Gulfstream, maybe Zito thinks hes gonna spit the bit like he will in the Derby :)

Pyro has to beat WAR PASS. Until then he can not be favored over him. I think the derby will be his but not the triple.

Why not put him in an allowance race? He hasnt raced since breeders cup. Get him a win so he gets rolling again. I think its a good move

I agree. He has plenty of graded earnings so there is no need to put him in a tough spot. All you need to do is get him in good shape for the derby and maybe keep his confidence level high by getting a victory.

ETCHED runs in Dubai and cant hit the ticket lol

Dan,
What do you make of the California horses? On the Thorograph sheets they seem very slow as a group. I dont know if its the joke of a track out there or that they're really that bad. any thoughts?

Good luck in the Road to the Roses contest! Did you intentionally choose a photo from your bar mitzvah as part of your bio? you look like you're 12!

So Mike, this is where you are hiding!.. I have got to get around the barn area here.
California three year old are a good crop of horses Mr. SilverCharm68. The style of racing is something to desire, But the speed and style of running is pretty good for three year old.

I think it will pan out over the next couple of weeks.

The fillies are extremely good (Indian Blessing and Country Star's), so the colts are surely a more competitive bunch. That puts them right in the thick of things.
Al least up to one mile races this far. Well see if they can continue to mature and stretch out.

It is my belief all the three year olds have distance issues. I have seen anything remotely to get a mile and 1/4 except Blackberry out of the Risen Star. All the distance so far is well below his potential to run long.

Right now he is my top closer at 1 1/4. Sure, they will beat him going 1, 1 1/16, maybe even 1 1/8. But beyond LOOK OUT.

I saw etched getting a hard time for running 135 and change. The winning time was excellent and I think any of the Derby trail horses would have been in tough. Etched was just in over his head a bit. But he will bounce back. he can run

Great effort by Pyro but although he did have to tip out wide he had a very clear run thereafter. A tiny bit reminiscent of the Red Sea opening for Rock Of Gibraltar after a breakdown in the BC Mile at Arlington. He never had to clip his stride one inch. Still a super effort, especially off the shelf.

Regarding the Pyro vs. War Pass debate-by Derby Day we should know whether or not War Pass is the real deal-Here's my "hoped for" scenario: War Pass is going to the Allowance where Zito will ask CV to rate him and see how he handles coming from a few lengths off the pace. War Pass will do o.k, but either just get up to win, or better or yet (for my scenario) finish 2nd or 3rd to an allowance horse who isn't highly regarded. War Pass drops to 12-15/1 for Pool Two. I save my milk money and bet as much as i can afford on him- He goes back to his regular style in the Woods, wins for fun, and then wins the Derby at a juicy Pool 2 price.

hahahaha ok .. Have you seen any video of war pass?? He will finish 2nd or 3rd vs some second rate horses??? I seiously doubt that.

"chopped"

I doubt it too (I called it my "hoped for scenario" because it would have looked wierd calling it a fantasy!) I really think that War Pass is the "real deal" but I doubt I'm gonna get much value. (Hindsight is 20/20 but I probably should have taken the 6/1-I doubt I'm going to get any more than that in future pools or on Derby Day, and if he's as good as I think, He's 2/1 tops on Derby Day (probably lots less) and I have trouble playing a 2/1 horse in a 20 horse field.

I wouldnt bet War pass at 100-1 to win the Derby he cannot get the distance...Go back and watch 100 derbys only a handfull have won on the lead and that was help due to mud..If you also watch the 1 1/16 race in New York last year War Pass was saved by the wire when Pyro was all over him....Pyro reminds me of Street Sense he did ok in racing until he had the chance to run 2 turns then just dominated....Pyro is only going to get that much better at distances....War Pass in the Belmont hahahah are you kidding me.

Mike-
Speaking of wire to wire derby winners, the winner of the only Derby I ever attended, the magnificent fillie Winning Colors, passed away yesterday. She was certainly a courageous and magnificent animal. Now, as to a "wire to wire" derby winner, this year will be the second Derby I attend (got seats this time instead of the infield) and so maybe it's time for another "wire to wire" winner. I've got 4 decent prices in the future pool, so it wouldn't break my heart if War Pass doesn't win (as long as Giant Moon, Smooth Air, Z Humour, or Ana Nakal do) but wouldn't it be great if Churchill could add a head to head wager (Pyro vs. War Pass) With all the Pyro hype, it might be a chance to take a few dollars and double them with my wager on War Pass!

Pyro vs War Pass in the head to head wager would be awesome good idea, its not that i dont think hes good but his running style just doesnt win Derbys. I honestly want him to come out in his allowance race and win by 20 that way my future prices sky rocket...Im still sitting back and waiting on Monba and Tomcito to run those two and Pyro is my 3 Derby horses thus far.

Wait, you graduated from college at age 20?

Mike,

Don’t discount War Pass from winning the Kentucky Derby just yet. As you noted, his running style is not conducive to winning the Derby and it remains to be seen how well Nick Zito can get him to rate, but War Pass’s pedigree is loaded with more stamina than speed and several of his ancestors excelled at 1 ¼ miles or farther.

The biggest question on a lot of people’s minds about War Pass is his sire Cherokee Run who was known as a sprint specialist at the age of four. But Cherokee Run also won several route races at the age of three and he finished 2nd in the Preakness. His grandsire, Runaway Groom, and great-grandsire, Blushing Groom, were route specialists.

Cherokee Run has had good runners in all 9 of his crops and 2007 was without a doubt his best year yet. Earlier in the year, Chelokee and Zanjero made a big splash on the Triple Crown Trail and War Pass wrapped up the year with a Christmas bow as Cherokee Run’s best runner yet in 9 crops with $1,397,400 in career earnings and a Class Performance Index rating of 91.55. Compare that to Zanjero’s 27.71 rating and Chelokee’s rating of 13.71 and you get a glimpse of the great things yet to come from War Pass if he remains healthy.

If War Pass was out of the Bold Ruler line, with what he has already accomplished, he’d be my number one pick for the Derby. However, War Pass is out of the line of Bold Ruler’s daddy, Nasrullah, which, in itself, is also a very important line that produced the Kentucky Derby winners’ Winning Colors (1988) via Caro/Fortino/Grey Sovereign and Forward Pass (1968) via On-and-On.

So far, War Pass has done everything right. It’s too early to tell but he could be something special. As long as he remains healthy, War Pass is sure to make a lot more noise and only time will tell how well he fares on the Triple Crown Trail

Calvin, the man with a plan as usual. Pedigree is your expertise.

I have to agree with Mike on a significant point. Speed does not stick at Churchill Down on Kentucky Derby day for all the money. Some longshot from the field will play spoiler for the pace as usual. Therefore, War Pass MUST change his pace, at least for the first 4 furlongs (47 and change) of the running, if to have any chance of winning.

Thus far, the racing times for all have not been anything to write about. Even Pyro speed time 90 is not good. Of course Pyro won in hand, he ran 100 twice in losing to War Pass.

If I had to place a bet right now, it would on the weather at 10-1 odds IT'S GOING TO RAIN on Derby day. War Pass is definitely a mud horse with pure speed. He can get a 1 1/4 easily splashing all over the place.

But for now, I have War Pass out for the same reason, I don't believe his speed can hold up with significant pressure on the front end. This year has produced alot of middle tier horses. So it will more crowded than most years into the first turn and down the back stretch.

THIS CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE A LONG SHOOT YEAR!. Looking for outsider from the rear as a closer in the lane. Someone has to come and get the money.

I believe Steve A (Pyro) understands this thinking. Pyro had no business dead last in the field. If you analyze the jockey, it look like he was interested around the turn at all concerning positions down along the rail. The race look by designed whether Pyro won or not. They needed to know, if the horse could pick up something in front of him and how quickly.

Back to War Pass, lets see if the horse can run 47 and change, and come home in 23 or 22 and change. If War Pass does, I don't care what any other horse does. He is the best! by far.

Every race that War Pass has been in he went 45 at the half, Pyro almost had him at Belmont he was 2nd by a few jumps and that race was only a mile...The Breeders cup he won by a couple but u cant even count that race the track was soupy. Like i said i want him to win his allowance race by 20 because he wont hit the ticket in the Derby :)

Dan who is counting, you have the Degree RIGHT, That all that matter. Congrats to the graduate (Dan). You remain me of Dustin Hoffman in the movie the graduate. Clean cut kid from a well to do family.

Mike, yep! and more yep!. Your right 45 and change will not make it to the wire.
So, do you think if War Pass runs 47 and change, your opinion would change.

Let's say the all his race was 47 and change and still won the Champagne and the Breeders Cup. Would you still think War Pass would not make to the wire ahead of the pack.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you, because history says we like a leader on the front end SMOKING the field. But for the Kentucky Derby, we all like the closer to nail the leader and then some. Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Bold Forbes, and the late great Winning Colors were all great champions for one reason only. NATURAL SPEED! The greatness of CHAMPION has this quality.

They all had to learn to rate thru the first turn on K-Day. But from there, it was all speed to the wire. War Pass will have to take the same trail. If he can rate the first turn 4-5 off a 46 and change pace. IT's ALL OVER.

Honestly, I really believe the horse can, because of Nick Zito.

But my Daddy, always taught me to have a backup plan. Until I see something better, thus far its Blackberry as the closer.

Dan-
Glad to see you have Giant Moon in your Top 10- (I got some of that 51/1 action in pool one, and of the horses I played, he seems to have the best shot)

As for War Pass, I gotta believe he's the real deal-For those asking why he is running in an allowance, I don't think Zito wants to ship him yet and he's got 2 other horses, Ana Nakal, and Cool Coal Man for the FOY (and CCM needs the graded earnihngs so by running WP there he could be costing CCM a spot in the Derby) I'm interested though in "Plan B" if they can't fill the allowance-after last year, what about, even though they'd have to ship, the Battaglia the following week at Turfway. Horses who prepped on Poly last year did very well in the Derby and since he doesn't need the graded earnings, the "kentucky path" might work-especially if Nick just leaves him in Kentucky from the Battaglia until Derby Day. (With the Lanes End and the Grade One at Keeneland, there are a couple of nice spots for his final prep)