Death, taxes and War Pass

Dan-

While I don't rate Cool Coal Man as #3 by any stretch, I do agree with you as far as being the "pick" to win the FOY (with a less than cranked up Court Vision 2nd and Z Humour a confidence building 3rd.) As for "it's certainly no fun if everybody on the site has the same horses on their list" isn't there one of you who sees that War Pass is the number one Derby Contender?

eaoa89,

I do! But they won't give me my own Top 10 list because I stole an ashtray from the Derby after-party last year. So I have to resort to the indignity of posting my Top 10 lest in my blog entries.

Well I do feel a little responsible for the heat brought on Dan. It may of stirred the pot enough to get people to look and respond to what kind of crap is being wrote and put into these so called experts top 10 lists. I also think that War Pass is the #1 horse it does not seem that hard to see at this time. Hey Dan how about next week you put War Pass as #1 and we can jump on your bandwagon for a bit. If not I would like to see a copy of eaoa89, and justindew's top 10 list seeing as they are the only ones that seem to be on the same page as me.

Dan:
I'm curious to hear your opinions on Saratoga Russell. He's one of my favorite horses on the Derby Trail.

bud,

You can see my Top 10 list in my most recent blog entry.

Also, I don't think that Dan or any of the other bloggers here need me to defend them, but keep in mind that the way many Top 10 list-makers approach the formulation of their list is by thinking about who they feel is the most likely to win the Derby at this point, while condsidering how they think the next few months are going to unfold. So, no one is saying that War Pass isn't at the top of the division necessarily. But since a number of smart handicappers have reservations about his ability to go 10 furlongs, listing him as the 3rd or 4th most likely Derby winner is not at all unreasonable.

I posted last month Saratoga Russell was my bomb play for the derby, he came out and won by 12 lengths but it was 6 furlongs again.. I wish they would stretch him out.

Dan i cant wait for your horse Texas Wildcatter to come out again after that awful ride he had last out...Im telling you hes sitting on a big race.

It appears that Saratoga Russell will likely go to the Gotham Stakes for his first try around 2 turns. It looks like he will face Giant Moon, Eaton's Gift, Barrier Reef and others. I'll be watching that one closely.

1.) War Pass-To be the man, you gotta beat the man! (besides horseracing, I'm a pro wrestling fan-never claimed to be normal)

2.) Pyro-Made a believer out of me in Risen Star BUT (see above)

3.) Giant Moon-quietly winning races in NY.

4.) Fierce Wind-lots of room to improve and already very good.

5.) Dennis of Cork-maybe the leader of the Arkansas group.

6.) Ana Nakal-has 2 turn win at Churchill.

7.) Into Mischief- I'm throwing out the sprint last-needs two turns.

8.) Majestic Warrior- Based on pure talent

9.) Court Vision-another with pure talent

10.) Smooth Air-first route was ok and can improve (but more importantly I got 159-1 on him in pool 1)

Eatons Gift wow i hope so he is a speedball and Texas Wildcatter is a nice closer that race would set up perfect for him.

Dano i used your cool coal man in my pick 3 the first leg then used war pass and the 5 in the last race..I played a $10 straight i hope it pays something with him paying $16.60.

Let me tell you all something.
In a handicapping sense, the "professional" is the one who analyzes the situation from top to bottom, trusts his ability and makes an educated judgment on how the situation will unfold. It is not the one who rates the speed figures from highest to lowest and forms a list or an opinion that way.
I hope all the people who gave Dan heat are not only enjoying the chalupas, but also the crow that they're now eating.

Anyone else catch Cornelio Velazquez doing his taxes on his Blackberry?

Mr. Silvercharm68, I thought handicapping was about picking the colors of jockey silks or maybe the by the name of the horses!

What this new "professional stuff" you are talking about ?

Now if you answer this questions, you are on suicide watch. Ha Ha Ha.

Great job handicapping Dan. I just hope you didn't waste all of that "professional skill to early in the hunt for the Kentucky Derby winner.

Mike. great handicapping as well. You hit the pick three. SOLID!

Unto the next show my friends.

Dan-
Cool Coal Man came thru, and now has the all important graded earnings to get there. Along with Dennis of Cork, it tells me a couple of things: First, trainers/owners with horses who don't have lots of 2yo foundation aren't hesitant about "throwing their hat into the ring" and secondly, trainer intent is going to be a big factor in handicapping these preps. (I'm sure Mott is very happy with the way his 2 horses ran despite being 3rd and 4th, where the top 2 finishes needed the earnings) Looks like the Sham will be such a small field that this may not come into play, but it's certainly something to remember on March 8th, especially in the Gotham (and it could lead to a big price as well in the Louisiana Derby-Pyro and Majestic Vision, just to name a couple, don't need the earnings) And the El Camino is a nice spot for a horse that's sitting at 50 or 60 to try to go down and "steal" (about 90k for first) Other than War Pass, things sure look wide open, and if he can't get the distance (I happen to think he can) then it could be "bombs away"

Horse name Pyro
Notes flying late last out
Activity type Workout
Activity date 02-25-2008
Track Fair Grounds
Surface Dirt
Distance 6 Furlongs
Workout type Breezing
Workout time 1:14.00
Track condition Fast

Solid 102 in hand! Nothing more than a workout!

War Pass remains at the top of the list. Mike are you going to share the money or what! Ching! Ching!

War Pass needs to learn how to rate if he expects to win the derby.

If J Be K gets in the derby, he will eat him alive on the front end.

He broke the Saratoga track record for 5f as a two-year old.

I am extremely excited to see how he does in the Loisianna Derby stretching out. I hope he can get the distance. If he wins, he will put a major dent in War Pass's chances on the first Saturday in May.

Cdpotato4,

It's very possible that this crop is so weak that War Pass doesn't need to learn to do anything.

Barry i sank $20 into the race it was actually chalky CCM $16 WAR PASS $2 and Parading $6 the pic 3 paid $52 i was really suprised it paid that much...and as for J Be K i think hes a sprinter and hes against the almighty PYRO!!! I would love to see him win the Louisiana Derby then rest until Kentucky that would be his 3rd time back off the layoff, and as a handicapper you would have to love that angle...

War Pass got a Beyer Speed Figure of 97, while Cool Coal Man got a 98.

Mike read my commentary on Justin blog.

In Summary, no way Cool Coal Man ran a faster race then War Pass.

Simply no way. If the clock was in error, it was in error all day!

Maybe we should put a stopwatch to the race on this site and time the video.

I posted those ratings from a drf article.

I just got on brisnet and it shows CCM 46'4 1:10'4 1:49'2 with him getting a 102 and War Pass 46'3 1:11'4 1:36'1 with a 99 ....If i was Court Vision i would leave Gulfstream its just not a places for deep closers..

FOY: I just don't understand how it could possibly be clocked at two different times, and the times aren't even close. What the hell is going on.

Now look at this...
Equibase just changed it. :24 :47^3 1:11^3 1:36^2 1:50
Those look the most logical times to me.

Does anyone know how and why this could happen? It is absurd.

Nice call Dan!

Dan

I was very impressed by all of Denis of Corks races to date but a wise friend of mine doesn't care for Harlan Holiday offspring. Does Denis have a chance on the first Saturday in May?

Barry,

Every now and then when I study thoroughbred pedigrees I get a “Wow” moment and I recently had a “Wow” moment that I think you’ll appreciate.

Fifth generation –
Polynesian: won the 1945 Preakness; 1947 champion sprinter; sired the great Native Dancer.
Nasrullah: champion 2-year-old colt in England; imported to U.S. in 1950; important source of stamina; sire of Bold Ruler.
Count Fleet: won the Champagne stakes and was the 1943 Triple Crown winner; Horse of The Year; Champion 3-year-old colt; 1961 Hall of Fame Inductee; rated by Blood-Horse magazine as the 5th best racehorse of the 20th Century.
Ribot: champion of champions; undefeated in 16 starts; two-time winner of the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe; 1954 Italian Champion 2-year-old colt; 1955 Italian Champion 3-year-old colt; 1956 Champion Older Horse in the United Kingdom, France and Italy; rated by Timeform as the 3rd best runner of the 20th Century; another important source of stamina.
War Admiral: sired by the great Man o’ War; 1937 Triple Crown winner; Horse of The Year; Champion 3-year-old; 1958 Hall of Fame Inductee; rated by Blood-Horse magazine as the 13th best racehorse of the 20th Century.
Hill Prince: 1949 Champion 2-year-old colt; 1950 Champion 3-year-old colt; Horse of The Year; won the Preakness; finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby; sired by Princequillo (another important source of stamina); 1991 Hall of Fame Inductee.

Fourth generation –
Native Dancer: one of the most influential sires of the 20th Century; another important source of stamina; won the Preakness and Belmont; probably would have won the Kentucky Derby but was seriously roughed going into the first turn and finished 2nd – beaten by a head; 1963 Hall of Fame Inductee; rated by Blood-Horse magazine as the 6th best racehorse of the 20th Century.
Nashua: won the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial; finished second in the 1955 Kentucky Derby; set new track record of 1:54.60 in winning the Preakness; won the Belmont; set a new North American record for 16 furlongs of 3:20.2 in the 1956 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont; 1954 Champion 2-year-old colt; 1955 Champion 3-year-old colt and Horse of The Year; 1965 Hall of Fame Inductee; rated by Blood-Horse magazine as the 24th best racehorse of the 20th Century.
Tom Rolfe: 1965 Champion 3-year-old colt; won the 1965 Preakness; finished 2nd in the Belmont; finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby; set new track record for 10 furlongs in 2:00.3 in the 1965 American Derby at Arlington; equaled the 7 furlong record of 1:21.0 at Arlington in 1966.
Bold Ruler: won the 1957 Preakness; finished 3rd in the Belmont; won with a high-weight of 134 pounds the Monmouth Handicap and Suburban Handicap both at 10 furlongs; won the Trenton Handicap at 10 furlongs; 1957 Champion 3-year-old colt and Horse of The Year; 1958 Champion Sprinter; sire of 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat; a very important source of stamina the Bold Ruler line produced 7 Kentucky Derby winners, including the Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew, during the decade of the 1970’s; 1973 Hall of Fame Inductee; rated by Blood-Horse magazine as the 19th best racehorse of the 20th Century.

Third generation –
Raise A Native: 1963 Champion 2-year-old; set new track record for 5.5 furlongs of 1:02.3 at Aqueduct and equaled track record for 5 furlongs of 57.4; undefeated in four starts; retired with a bowed tendon; sired the 1969 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince; a very important source of stamina the Raise A Native line produced the 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed and the Kentucky Derby winners Genuine Risk (1980), Alysheba (1987) and Strike The Gold (1991).
Hoist The Flag: 5-0-0 in 6 starts; 1970 Champion 2-year-old Colt; sired two-time Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe winner Alleged.

Second generation –
Mr. Prospector: set new track record for 6 furlongs of 1:07 4/5 at Gulfstream and set new track record for 6 furlongs of 1:08 3/5 at Garden State; a sire of sires; a very important source of stamina, as well as speed, the Mr. Prospector line has carried on the influence of Native Dancer. The sire line of Mr. Prospector has produced 8 of the past 13 Kentucky Derby winners; 8 of the past 10 Preakness winners and 10 of the past 12 Belmont winners.

Wow!

All of the above thoroughbreds are ancestors of Vue who is the dam of War Pass. As you can see, there is tons of stamina in the pedigree of War Pass – and that’s just on the side of the dam. He also has stamina on the sire line.

One item to note, Mr. Prospector as a broodmare sire has never produced a winner of any of the Triple Crown races, however his line did produce the 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro via La Ville Rouge by Carson City and the 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini via Cara Rafaela by Quiet American. The broodmare sire line of Native Dancer has produced the 1993 Preakness winner Prairie Bayou and 2001 Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given.

Another thing that intrigued me about the pedigree of War Pass was that like Cherokee Run who is best known as a sprinter, there were several other ancestors who were champion sprinters that sired important horses. 1947 Champion Sprinter Polynesian sired Native Dancer who almost swept the Triple Crown and 1958 Champion Sprinter Bold Ruler sired Triple Crown winner Secretariat.

So, it will definitely be interesting to see if War Pass can live up to the greatness of some of his ancestors.

So far, he’s off to a great start.

Horse Racing has now become a media circus. Years ago when all the Triple Crown winners were around they did the same race circuits and people got to see who actually had talent. Now because of the industry they purposely have horses not compete against each other until the Derby. They have found through time that by having supposed great horses all coming together for one race, without ever racing against each other, sells tickets. The Derby just keeps on selling tickets. It is a time honored tradition, that is true, but marketing of horses keeps it going.
This Derby is shaping up to be another one like 2002 when another War horse, War Emblem was the Great Speed Horse. We never seem to get a year when there is two big speed horses to run. As with War Emblem, War Pass might never have a serious challenger because no-one wants to move too early. Last year Hard Spun was a mediocre speed horse. Yes he was fast, but he was not that talented. Or could it have been the jockey's fault for not slowing down the pace of the race.
Let's face it, War Pass's 2008 debut was a media circus. Why would any owner not want to run his horse in something of at least some notoriety? Give me a break. I work on the backside at a top track and anybody with any experience could smell the stink of marketing a mile away. There is such a thing as credentials. A great horse like War Pass should have had an easy time in any Grade 3 race that he picked to debut in. Not like Court Vision, that actually debuted in a real race. Even after Bill Mott said flat out that he just wanted a good performance, and not necessarily a win did people say that Court Vision ran a bad race. That race was slow and pathetic and most of those horses will not figure in the Derby. Just wait and see what Court Vision does next time back. Big deal.
Here is the scenario. I will be interested to see if it goes this way.
War Pass will go to the Derby undefeated because he is going to run in the pathetic Tampa Bay Derby and then Gotham. This has always been the route trainers take to avoid the confrontation. Pyro will go the tough route and maybe come up against someone that he cant run down in the final yards.
The Derby hype will be War Pass the undefeated champion that hasn't faced anybody against Pyro, a nice horse that can close but has not shown that he can stalk. Unfortunately, with 20 horses the closer is at a disadvantage. If War Pass can run to the uncontested lead like War Emblem....boom Derby winner and then Preakness winner since the Preakness is shorter and is easier for front runner to win. But then the all important 3rd leg Belmont when Pyro will run War Pass down because of the distance and lack of many horses.
You can say I dont know what I am talking about, but when War Pass is undefeated on Derby day and you are left saying, "I dont know whether to bet him because he hasnt beaten anybody yet"....just remember that this all done by marketing by NTRA with the help of owners and trainers.....Dont believe the Hype! War Pass has shown no ability more than being a front runner that has never been challenged. Dont compare him to great horses that can run up front and stalk the pace too. Until he proves otherwise he is just another "War" horse. Good luck on Derby Day....

Dan,

I am super impressed by the blog, as well as by the comments (most of them at least) of your readers. You're terrific Cool Coal Man pick was the result of diligent legwork (following developing 2 yos), understanding who would get the perfect trip, and solid nuts and bolts handicapping. It showed complete game.

I loved CCM's handy athleticism and QB-like closing speed when he angled out to attack in the stretch. However, he does need to learn to put his head down, focus, and dig in after making his initial run. Loafing only gets you caught in CD's long stretch.

Elysium Fields is a physical monster. He just was harder used and lacks the lightning acceleration to go with the winner while also negotiating the turn into the stretch. He has huge upside.

Alaazo has been the purest, true distance horse of this crop since his debut at Monmouth. The Derby could come too early for him, but watch out if he makes the
Belmont. Key to his Derby chances will be how he handles a quicker pace scenario, as he's likely to get today at Gulfstream Park.

Keep up the great work!

Dan,
I totally agree with you top picks for the Derby. Not in the specific order but hey, I am very pro Pyro but from watching him race and how WarPass races, you really have to say to yourself does Pyro have it? Catching WarPass is his biggest obsticle and with that being said unless we see them race again in a prep. Im still going with WarPass to win the Derby. I would love to see Pyro take it from him. We will see. Love your blogs...