Derby Blogs  //

Zzzzzzzzzzz....Sham Stakes reveals little

posted by Dan Shapiro on March 04, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Yes, this New York kid drove from Las Vegas out to Santa Anita last weekend.

I went as a fan and didn’t plan on writing much about the racing. After all, my gig is the East Coast Blog.

But I can't keep quiet anymore. I need to chime in about the snooze-fest also known as the Sham Stakes.

Seriously folks, did this race tell us anything?

It was five-horse field run over a strange synthetic surface. Colonel John sat a perfect trip off crawling pace, set by an overmatched longshot named Victory Pete. Colonel John took over at the top the stretch and was fully extended to hold off the onrushing El Gato Malo. The winning Beyer Speed Figure came back a measly 86. Distance-challenged Victory Pete, whose lone win came on turf, was beaten just three lengths for the win.

Yes, I understand the Santa Anita synthetic surface is slow and quirky and Colonel John sprinted the last furlong under 12 seconds. But if he didn't charge home that quickly after six furlongs in 1:14 1/5, there’d be been some major talent questions about him.

The reality is that it's March already and real Derby hopefuls should be running faster by now. The California 3-year-olds are simply slow. Other than Georgie Boy’s San Vicente, I haven’t found any performance by a 3-year-old in California to be that exciting. The allowance win by Hey Byrn at Gulfstream last Sunday was far more interesting to me.

It's about time we see an breakout performance in a Derby prep and it's more likely to happen on a traditional dirt surface on the East Coast.

I have a feeling we'll see something big this weekend in the Louisiana Derby, the Gotham Stakes or both. The Louisiana Derby has already drawn a great field, led by Pyro and featuring the 3-year-old debuts of Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati. Pyro's last-to-first win in the Risen Star, though visually impressive, wasn't very fast against the clock. He'll need a bigger performance to justify his place at the top of my Derby Top 10 list, ahead of War Pass. The Gotham will feature the exciting, undefeated Giant Moon taking on a solid field of local runners and South Florida shippers.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are not bad horses. Of the two, Colonel John seems far more likely to develop further and excel going 10 furlongs. But it's hard to get excited about any of the West Coast Derby prospects until we see a breakout performance and a Beyer Figure in at least the upper 90s. Maybe we'll see more in the Santa Anita Derby, but for now it seems like the 2008 Derby winner is far more likely to be prepping East of the Mississippi on traditional dirt.

Join the Discussion

| 15 comments so far | Login to comment

Cdpotato4

03/04/2008 9:43 am

Dan,

I could not agree with you more! The only west coast performer worth mentioning is Georgie Boy. It still remains to be seen whether he can get the distance. And unfortunately we will have to wait until his final prep before we know for sure. The San Felipe is at 1 1/16m. I would like to see him go 1 1/8m before making any desicive conclusions.

beebs4201

03/04/2008 9:59 am

It is a shame that Santa Anita can't get full fields for some of their derby prep races. The San Vincente and the Sham were both a joke with the tiny fields entered. It looks like the San Felipe will come up short as well. I love Colonel John's breeding but I just will not feel very confident about him going into the derby no matter how well he performs in the Santa Anita derby. Chances are all that he will see in that race is El Gato Malo and a couple of other donkeys. I doubt anyone running in the San Felipe will wheel back into the Santa Anita with just 3 weeks rest. I could be wrong though.

silvercharm68

03/04/2008 10:44 am

an east coaster going out west and ripping on the product, huh? Just remember what happened to Biggie when he did that.

Do you have any angles you like using when handicapping horses going from synthetic to traditional dirt from a beyer perspective? I know beyers are supposed to take the surface into account, but it seems tough to run big speed numbers on the synthetic stuff in general.

jjjimmyjam9

03/04/2008 11:17 am

Speaking of Pyro, don't let the Beyer worry you. He does what he does. He flies home late. If you watch the race he tried to make a move in the middle of the last turn. He tried three different holes to get through and couldn't. Finally, he found a hole in the stretch and released his closing kick. If he would have gotten out sooner, the race would have been a little faster.

But with the slow 6 furlongs and the fact that he was wrapped up 100 yds from the wire, you really can't go by the Beyer number. Just go by what you saw - a nice race. Lastly, he over came trouble in a 14 horse field - and still won the race going away against a good group. That is what you want to see.

I can't wait for Col. John and The Bad Cat to come East. Once they catch a large field and get bumped a couple of times.... they may just fold like a cheap tent. They are learning nothing out in CA. Easy and short fields with no troubled trips. Derby prep - I doubt it!

CAMCHLOE

03/04/2008 11:47 am

What are your thoughts on Stevil at 15/1 in the Louisiana Derby? A wise man told me that the first Saturday in May could be the date he peaks. Is Nick trying to secure some garded stakes money or is this his last shot?

Cdpotato4

03/04/2008 12:22 pm

Camchole,

Can't say I'm a big fan. The only thing he has is the rail. Post 1 is winning at 22% at the FG. I wouldn't bet him with monopoly money.

Very excited to see the race though.

mike barker

03/04/2008 12:41 pm

Remember Pyro was on the shelf for 4 months also and Shaun never went to the stick, he kind of reminds me of Street Sense both were just ok until they tried 2 turns then they started putting up big numbers..I read a blog by Randy Moss he said no horse of any 1/16-mile race at Fair Grounds in the last decade has finished in 22.3 seconds for the last quarter-mile – then consider that Pyro had to be angled out sharply for racing room in midstretch.........WOWWWWWWWWWWW

Cdpotato4

03/04/2008 12:52 pm

I was just reviewing the PPs for the Louisianna Derby. I noticed that Unbridled Vicar (20-1) lost to Denis of Cork by a head in a January Allowance. I then reviewed the video and saw that the two battled the entire way down the strecth in the 1m 40yds race.

Don't you think it is a little odd that Denis of Cork is listed in the Top 5 of three lists on this site. On those same three lists, Unbridled Vicar is not mentioned.

In my opinion, if you like one you have to like the other somewhat. Unbridled Vicar did not have a great trip in the Risen Star, but then again neither did Pyro and he still won with ease.

I guess what I am trying to get at is that I believe either Denis of Cork is way overrated or Unbridled Vicar is underrated. I am not sure which it is but we will know soon enough. My educated guess is going to go with the former.

FASTLANE

03/05/2008 12:35 am

Col. John...what a great horse to include in the superfecta....in the D spot. With a low Beyer but decent finish he could prove to be a run up. We'll start biting on serious contenders after the two races sat.. Still playing Elysium Fields, Blackberry Road, and Cool Coal Man if a fair price is out there in Pool 2. If anything, it makes it easier to accept War Pass and Pyro as my A/B wheel horses if Tale of Ekati doesn't get a clean trip.

Lane

slot33

03/05/2008 2:13 pm

If Pyro runs a strong race this weekend he'll go to #1 on my list. I don't care if he was beaten 3 times previously by War Pass. Go back and watch the races... Pyro acquitted himself nicley and looked to me to be the one that will like more distance. I can't believe in a 20 horse field that War Pass won't get some pressure on the front end. I still have nagging doubts about War Pass' ability to get the 1 1/4.

I'm a West Coaster and have been high on Colonel John. The Sham was a disappointment with field size, the fractions, and the Beyer. Steve Romans of Chef-de-Race said the track at SA was playing at least five lengths slower than par meaning Colonel John ran the equivalent of a 1:49. Even with that, the Beyer doesn't go to a level that equals Derby Contender. I'm not off of Colonel John yet, I'm waiting until the SA Derby. But if he doesn't significantly improve his Beyer that will be it. I don't at all buy the argument that Colonel John isn't battle-tested though. He's ran in some big fields and done fine. He got slammed around at the beginning of the Cash Call and ran on well. So the SA Derby is my barometer for the West-Coasters who have been bashed here pretty hard. And probably rightly so. But I still believe that Colonel John is the only West-Coast Derby Contender for the win right now. Have big Pool 1 ticket on Colonel John, moderate ticket on Z-Fortune, and small ticket on Monba (whoops). I have some interest in Elysium Fields for Pool 2... But I'll wait until this weekend's races are over, look at the odds, and then determine if any horse looks like they are worth betting. I hope that Dan and Justin will weigh in over the weekend if any horses look worthy of a wager in Pool 2.

Cdpotato4

03/05/2008 2:51 pm

"I can't believe in a 20 horse field that War Pass won't get some pressure on the front end."

Slot,

I can't believe in a 20 horse field that Pyro won't have traffic problems on the back end. Neither of these horses have ideal running styles for the Derby. I will look elsewhere. And Colonel John isn't it either. He is no Brother Derek.

I will have to wait until someone else catches my eye. I am not sold on any thus far.

slot33

03/05/2008 8:17 pm

CD,

Fair enough. I'm not locked into anyone yet. I'll let the upcoming Derby preps sort things out some... at least I hope so. I haven't seen any performance(s) by any horse yet that scream Derby winner. So at least for now, I'll come back to Beyers and Late pace ratings as the most heavily weighted factors although I know there are many others to consider. But off of those 2 factors... it's War Pass and Pyro right now with nobody else even close. I suspect that by the time all the preps are run at least 1 or 2 more will step up to that level... I hope so.

barryrmitchell

03/06/2008 3:36 am

BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD

My typewriter is stuck!

BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
PY??

Sorry Mike, hit the wrong key

BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD
BLACKBERRY ROAD

Calvin Carter

03/06/2008 1:47 pm

Barry,

At 10-1 or higher, I believe that Blackberry Road is definitely a live longshot. Blackberry Road reminds me a lot of Charismatic who ran in a qazillion races and never quite got there until the latter preps of the Triple Crown Trail.

With the change in jockeys to Robbie Albarado and the juicy odds of 10-1 or higher, Blackberry Road will be a must play with a small Win/Place wager.

barryrmitchell

03/07/2008 1:58 am

Hi Calvin, thanks for the confidence. I just hope the colt don't break Mike heart.

I know he feels strongly about PYRO.

But that horse racing, I have kids to feed.

Sorry Mike, take it like a man. No vacation this year for ya!

Have a great weekend guy's and enjoy the races.