Gotham Stakes preview and picks

Finally, we have a Kentucky Derby prep in the Northeast to get excited about. While the Louisiana Derby is getting all the hype this week, the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct drew a solid field of 3-year-olds and several are legitimate Derby contenders. Another win by Giant Moon would elevate him into the top tier of prospects. There are several others -- including a threesome from trainer Todd Pletcher -- with the talent to step into the Derby picture with a big effort on Saturday. As in many two-turn races on Aqueduct's Inner Track, post position will be a major factor with the outside horses at a major disadvantage. With heavy rain in the forecast for New York City, a wet racetrack is also a likely variable.

All this makes the Gotham a terrific betting race. Here's a quick analysis of the field and my picks:

1. Giant Moon - Really has no visible flaws in this spot. The undefeated colt shows an excellent pattern of improvement and comes into this well rested. He has an excellent inside post and a top rider in Ramon Dominguez. Strictly the horse to beat.

2. Laysh Laysh Laysh - Claimed for $50,000 by his current connections, he's been racing exclusively at sprint distances this year and needs a big bump in speed figures to be competitive. Unlikely in this tough spot.

3. Roman Emperor - Son of Empire Maker battled Barrier Reef gamely to the wire in the Whirlaway while racing on the wrong lead. He has a cozy inside draw and an nice speed figure pattern for good connections. Top contender.

4. Saratoga Russell - Drew away to a visually impressive win in the slop at Gulfstream for his second straight win. His speed figures are solid; the added distance is the biggest question mark. Contender.

5. Southern Terminus - Was no match for subsequent Sam F. Davis winner Fierce Wind at Gulfstream. Needs to show big improvement for the Pletcher barn to have any shot. Prefer others.

6. Holidaze - Broke through to win a first-level Aqueduct allowance for Pletcher despite traffic on the first turn. Improving sort could get a piece at a price, but others are more likely to win.

7. Texas Wildcatter - Was in perfect striking position on the turn, but let the leaders get too far away in the Whirlaway, and he subsequently close well to finish third. Pletcher adds blinkers to this talented colt, who has an upset shot. Top pick.

8. Larry's Revenge - Ran OK in his first start for Zito in a Gulfstream allowance. Makes his two-turn debut and needs big improvement to compete with these. Unlikely longshot.

9. Ling Ling Qi - Overcame the rail post and fought out a victory in a tough allowance going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Shows a strong speed figure pattern and is likely to move forward in his second start at a 3-year-old for sharp connections. The post is the biggest issue. Contender.

10. Visionaire - Got a perfect inside trip and should have had more left in the tank when he raced up near that slow pace in the Risen Star. Now he faces the extreme outside post. I'm taking a stand against as the 3-1 ML favorite.

Picks: 1-Texas Wildcatter 2-Giant Moon, 3-Roman Emperor

Good luck to all!

-Dan