Now what?

If War Pass tanks in New York do you think they will send him??

War Pass never should have ran in Tampa. His connections knew he had a fever and continued to train him. The owner said after the race that the horse was sick during the week. The horse appeared to have lost weight and certainly did not look like himself prior to the race. Knowing that they sold his breeding rights, maybe they are just trying to suck every penny they can out of him while he is still racing. Would it have hurt him to skip this race and point to the Wood as a healthy runner?

He wasnt sick hes full of it, everytime a horse loses trainers make up something...Threw a shoe, displaced palet, bled, didnt like the track, and so on..

I was at the race yesterday and I have seen this horse race 3 times. Trust me, that horse was not right. The other times I have seen him, he was a monster that you knew he was going to win. Yesterday, I was certain he would not win. He did not look well and did not act his normal self. Nobody could have predicted a last place finish against a group that he could have breezed by if healthy. Horses, like people, get sick and need to rest and be treated. They did not do that with this horse.

Beginning War Pass's 2008 campaign against allowance company at Gulfstream was either a mistake or a clue to his 3-year old form. He got nothing out of trouncing that field. He didn't come home in :12 sec.; which is what you need to win the Derby or any of it's major preps. The race wasn't particularly fast even from a Beyer standpoint(not that I'd use them, anyway). True enough Zito doesn't have to push his horse to make the Derby. He's in on earnings. But he does have to prep him usefully. The Breeders Cup race on a sloppy Monmouth Course made for summer racing cannot possibly be used as a formful race. Nothing, so far, shows me this horse has the seasoning as a 3-yr. old to win the Derby.
But, a major effort in the Wood where he will probably meet at least one major contender
could be useful enough. Just wouldn't bet the future on it. As always, just my 2 bucks(to place).

Idastan, you it in on the head. Why in the world would a champion be placed in an allowance race where the jockey did everything to stop him from running? Think about it, it wasn't even a workout because of how he was held back (nearly choked down) and forced to maintain such a slow pace. There is more to this story than what is being told. It would be interesting to see how they positioned this horse if they had not sold the breeding rights. I would say there would not be an allowance race this year and he would have been scratched from his last race to recuperate. I believe they would have put him in important races, upto the Derby and then afterwards, to build up his resume for stud fees.

Actually, I like the distance progression Zito was/is using for War Pass. I think it was meant to slowly stretch him out beyond his sire's sprint/miler pedigree. However, if you will recall Afleet Alex had his 3YO debut in the Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn going 6 panels. So what if it's a little unorthodox, I don't think it was a mistake. Zito is an excellent trainer and has won the Derby in the past - the guy definitely knows what he's doing. If he was a twenty something trainer with no experience, it might be a little different. Strange how people who aren't trainers attempt to question and dissect every move a guy makes.

Mike - Here's somewhat of a rhetorical question for you....How did Afleet Alex finish in the Rebel a couple of years ago (if you will recall he came out of it with a lung infection)? That said, there are certain instances when horses come out of a race with a logical reason for running poorly. Just to reminisce a little on AA's accomplishments...he came back to decimate the AK Derby, run well in KY Derby, then the most memorable Preakness Stakes in History, along with a spectacular performance in the Belmont. I know you just refuse to acknowledge War Pass as a threat to win the Derby, but there's always a possibility.

War Pass fans should just acknowledge that he cannot handle competition for the front. There are excuses being made left and right, let's face it, he didn't get to the front and didn't fire...PERIOD. Any problems getting there in the Derby will ultimately make his Derby chances zero to none.

He is still a threat, and anyone who doesn't acknowledge that is being naive. But, he is not invincible, and that is now factual. The door is open, and the possibilities are now endless....Although a Pyro loss as a 3yo would be a nice addition.

Phil - Same story I heard last year regarding Hard Spun. As a matter of fact, it's almost identical to what the naysayers said about him after the Southwest. Occasionally, a horse just doesn't fire and as may have been the case yesterday. So, to each his own, but I still like War Pass and believe he's much better than yesterday's effort. Don't get me wrong, I am not conceding the Derby to War Pass, I just think he is still the horse to beat - regardless, of his performance yesterday. However, I like Big Brown and Tomcito to boot. So far, Big Brown's performance reminds me of Curlin's last year around this time. Get ready, the excuses will be plentiful when Pyro doesn't win the Bluegrass or Derby.

If Pyro loses, Country Star may find the Derby field looking easier than trying to beat Eight Belles in the Oaks. But in all seriousness, Larry Jones has the top 2 Oaks horses, why not send one for the roses? Eight Belles is some kind of freak and appears to be getting away from the mystery losses. Anyone thinking about tossing War Pass should watch Eight Belles struggle home 7th in a FG allowance before remembering how to run in a huge way.

Maybe now the West-Coast horses will get a little more respect. Sierra Sunset had been handled easily out here by Colonel John and El Gato Malo. Georgie Boy ran awfully well in the San Felipe. I'm beginning to think the Santa Anita Derby just may have a good field when a couple of weeks ago prospects looked dismal. You'll have the top 3 from the Sham and San Felipe likely with the addition of Yankee Bravo, maybe Sierra Sunset and some others. The Derby looks wide open at this point to me... even with Pyro... until a couple of them step up big-time in their next starts and start to sort things out a bit more.

The more I look at this demolition derby.....the more i like Denis Of Cork. You are crucified when you lose a prep , so why race in them ? Afleet Alex couldn't win the derby due to distance, Barbaro was off too long, Funny Cide had no chance for he was a gelding. The path is important but not one size fits all. Denis has a burst and a trainer that seems to make the right moves (sans Blackb*rry R*ad) Hope to see you at Aqueduct for that last prep before imortality.

How did War Pass not fall down in the stretch? After watching the race live and on replay, everytime I think he is going to fall over because he was laboring so bad. Question is, if he breaks well and gets an easy lead, does he still run the same kind of race and finish last. Dont like him but still think something was wrong.

It looked like right before the gates opened he tried to break through a la Barbaro in the preakness, only he failed to force the gate open. That is a lot of force and energy to exert, and it likely took a lot out of him. Maybe he should wait til one of the April 12th races to get a little more time off to recover from his setback.

or not, War Pass got a bad break and is looking more and more like Stormello who peaked at 2 and was better at 1 and a sixteenth

If War Pass keeps running he might win tomorrows first race LOL....I have lost to much $$ over the years betting front runners, and this horse is unrateable as you can see...Just like Visionaire in the Risen Star...If he drops back thats his running style and that race would be alot closer than people think...I believe they learned there lesson when he came back to win the Gotham with his right running style...Im not sure how Visionaire or Pyro will handle Keenelands track, but no matter what happens Churchill will be a different story....I think Pyro is great especially being consistent but im leaning toward Visionaire right now...Wish i could a seen more of the Gotham...Did you know that not 1 horse closed from last on the entire card that day at Aqueduct, thats what makes this horse for real...

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44120

Camchloe - What are you talking about with Afleet Alex? It was definitely a poor ride by Rose, as he used the horse way too early and left nothing for the stretch - yet he was barely beaten by Giacomo and Closing Argument. Not to mention, he crushed the Preakness and Belmont that year. He won from races from 6-12 furlongs throughout his career. Bottom line, distance was not the problem. What's the Barbaro statement? I am pretty sure he crushed the Derby field. Unfortunately, the tragic accident in the Preakness took him away from us entirely too early. I also seem to remember Funny Cide peaked at the right time his 3YO season and looked great going into the Belmont. Besides, what does the fact he's a gelding have to do with anything? By the way, if Curlin couldn't do it last year, DOC won't do it this year. I was not a huge Curlin fan last year, but am able to admit he's a phenomenal talent and didn't duck anyone. Also, David Carroll has already comitted to running in the Illinois Derby. So, I don't think you will see him at the Big A.

Mike - I agree Visionaire is for real, but figured you would be against him because of the pedigree. I've always been a Matz supporter and think he's an astute horsemen. Would love to see him do well in the Derby again. By the way, did you see Tomcito's workout today (bullet work - 5 panels in 58.80 @ Gulfstream)? For all those who are skeptical, just wait....the Florida Derby will be his for the taking. Barring Big Brown runs as well, I like a $50 exacta box with Big Brown/Tomcito or heck how about a $100 exacta Tomcito over Big Brown? Thoughts?

Derby..

I hope you cash that ticket...

sripa - I hope so too. If Tomcito runs like I think and wins the Fl Derby, will you come to the US for the KY Derby?

Mike you little pit bull!!!!, Man you don't let up when you get the opportunity to BITE!

Love you man! lol

Here is what remarkable to me. Has any horse broke 100 speed beyers in a graded stakes race this year thus far?

No one has emerge as a clear cut choice. If a filly was to races the boy's again, this is the year to do it.

Those who comment on Afleet Alex, the reason he lost the Derby, He never saw the outside closer. Maybe the move was early by Rose, but the distance between the rail and the outside colts was from the 1-2 slot to the 10-11 positions. It happens!

I was there, front and center at the jockey's room. Rose walked by and said to the owner, he will win the Preakness. History speaks for itself.

Right now graded earning is becoming a problem for many. Time is running short and the need for cash is high. Time to put up and dance the dance.

Tactically, many of the speed horse which will challenge War Pass, do not have enough graded earnings. All who currently do! are closers. This is a problem for the field selected. No pure front runners have the cash to dance.

War Pass may just end up with a Lone "F" trip at this pace of qualifiers. To date the only speedster is the colt which finished second to PYRO. But need more cash.

Zito objected to the widely reported characterization of War Pass running days after having a fever, which is what co-owner Robert LaPenta was reported to have told some media members immediately following the race

"He did not have a fever," Zito said. "Fever means you're sick. On my mother's life, he never missed an oat. His temperature was a little high, just slightly, last Sunday, but he was fine the rest of the week. Just to make sure, we took a blood on him on Thursday, and it was perfect. He did not have a fever. That's not why he got beat. Why did he get beat? That's what we've got to find out."

derby fan..

i am in the US right now...in Aventura as we speak...the rest of teh family is arriving starting this friday and anext week...

we will all be here...

Sripa and why are you here? I just want to be clear on the facts.

Is the horse running or what? What happen to the invite in Dubai?

If the horse loses, will he continue to the K-Derby or deport home.

If the family is coming, what is the long term plans win or lose?

Mike, I agree, if he doesn't win the Wood, Nick will not send to the Derby.
Did the owner speak without consulting Nick. Is there a sense of pressure building up.

I don't remember, but has Nick ever been released from training a quality horse.
No that would make press clippings.

If Nick says War Pass is special, than I guest he is? right. Well he also said the same thing about S-King who never won a Grade 1 stakes race.

I CAN'T WAIT to see TOMCITO! THe horse worked 5 in 58.80 yesterday at gulfstream for the fastest of 24 works at the distance! He is a DEEP CLOSER. The last deep closer to be working with those times was Street Sense. I sure hope he wins but it's tough for deep closers at that track so maybe advantage Big Brown. Add Elysium Fields to the mix and that's your trifecta folks. It'll be Tomcito in the big dance to give Street Cry his second consecutive Derby winner!

http://www.drf.com/workouts/17/wGP17.html

It will be awfully tough to close at gulfstream.

DerbyFan - I think you missed the boat. I'm pretty sure Camchloe's point was that there are knocks against every horse in some fashion. Going into the '06 race, people didn't think a horse could win off a 'layoff' of over 4 weeks. Barbaro did. Going into the 2003 race, people pointed out that no gelding had won in over half a century. Then Funny Cide did. There's no set formula for this whole thing. Have to trust the trainer to get the horse ready. Certainly explains, in part, why this is historically such a trainer's race.

Barry, Giacomo was a better horse that day, its that simple. Afleet Alex had nothing for him and his powerful stretch run. Afleet Alex has a much better trip and encountered far less traffic than Giacomo and Giacomo is forever a Kentucky Derby Champion. Afleet Alex is a lot of things, but his is not a Kentucky Derby Champ!

SO LISTEN UP! WOW great news they have just taken off the strangler Robby Albarado on Denis Of Cork and Julien Leparoux gets the mount, and also he wont be on Black Berry Rd either.....But robby managed to pick up the mount on Country Star oh lord help me :) I prey everday that rafael gets healthy and gets that mount back for the OAKS..........Nakatani, who last year was the regular rider on Colonel John, regained the mount for the Santa Anita Derby because Gomez, who won the Sham Stakes on Colonel John, has opted to ride Court Vision in the Wood that day.

Court Vision had been under consideration for both the April 5 Wood and the Florida Derby on March 29 at Gulfstream Park, but trainer Bill Mott on Tuesday said the Wood was definite. Mott said he might now run Majestic Warrior in the Florida Derby, or await the Arkansas Derby on April 12.

Aventura? We lived there for 30 years until death and taxes sent us to the west coast. We could see the finish line from our terrace(if we weren't there already). Seriously, horses ONLY win the Kentucky Derby if they consistently come home in :12s. Giacamo(prepped wide his 3 yr-old campaign which hid his form) and Funnycide were the two odds-breakers that were standout consistent closers. Don't worry about Zito,though; he still has Cool Coal Man.

Great news Mike, yeah I thought the Florida Derby was looking a lot like the Kentucky Derby for a minute there, they are smart to split some of the top horses up, whether or not they need the money to qualify. I couldn't believe Court Vision would possibly race in the same race as Big Brown with Big Brown needing all the money he can earn to qualify. So no one is ducking War Pass now. I hope Asmussen doesn't put Albarado on Z Fortune now, but I'm afraid he might, since Garrett Gomez may have given up on the horse.

Rene Douglas got the mount on Z FORTUNE

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44141

Barry - Tomcito is scheduled to make his next start in the Florida Derby. So far, Smooth Air, Big Brown, Elysium Fields, Hey Byrn, and Tomcito are projected starters. However, it was also announced today that Visionaire could go as well. Majestic Warrior could run here or the AK Derby. Of course, the list will probably grow even more over the next week. Also, Court Vision is going to the Wood along with Giant Moon and War Pass. I am anxious to see how War Pass comes back and think he will be somewhat of a fair price off his dismal effort in the TB Derby. Not to mention, the starting gate will likely fill after his effort last weekend.

Anyone else see Leparoux has the mount on DOC in the Illinois Derby? Not quite sure what to make of that move. Thoughts?

sure Mike, I'd rather have Deshawn Parker

lol THE Mountaineer Man

My guess is Andy is having a very difficult time reporting figures from Santa Anita. The surface seems to change at least mildly on a weekly basis.

On another note, I was more impressed with Georgie Boy than with Colonel John or El Gato Malo.

And where is Salute the Sarge??

Georgie is the best in the west for sure

CD, I hear you. Salute at Del Mar was a better two year old than Georgie Boy, In losing the Del Mar Futurity, Salute had so much trouble and still almost won.

Dixie Chatter is also a extremely dangerous horse. Was consider the best from the west before Breeders Cup at Oak Tree meet.

Slot, I am really high on Colonel John. I think he improves 5 lengths off the win.
The Santa Anita Derby is shaping up to be a three horse race. It will be supported by tremendous speed up front and a cast of closer. So I see a fair race without the snail pace to content with.

Georgie Boy, is sharp, and may be the better horse, can't wait. El Gato Malo will get the necessary trip to win. I think it comes down to the jockey tactical riding and a photo finish.

Hopefully Georgie Boy wins and Colonel John gets derby day odds similar to Charismatic. What ever happened to Leonides? He wasn't far from the Sarge last year, maybe a centimeter as I recall.

Cdpotato,

Salute the Sarge is a precocious miler at best. Gutsy, but no way he stretches, even on synth. Love Georgie Boy, but still get the feeling his home is on the turf. My cal his El Gato Malo. Pressing style sets up well for dirt, distance no problem, most likely to improve on loam. Colonel John may move up on dirt, but I've seen a lot of Tiznows already that love the synth, and not so much the dirt. Yankee Bravo may have the most upside of anyone out there.

So Medjool drew post 9. Will have to show a bit more in the way of tactical speed, but I expect him to run well.

Just saw where Sierra Sunset is injured and off the trail. Looks like the AK Derby is wide open at this point.

Maybe I've missed some comments... what does everyone think of Big Brown? Is he this year's Curlin? I checked out his breeding and its outstanding. I'm not touting him for the win in the Derby as I think any horse with 3 lifetime starts is extremely suspect. And I guess he'd have to pretty much win the FLA Derby to get to Kentucky. Anyways, seems like an exciting prospect. The FLA Derby is shaping up to be a good race. I'm excited to see Tomcito run. But if Tomcito somehow wins that race I don't see how it could do anything but add to a confusing Derby picture. Anyone out there willing to wager on a 1 prep racehorse for the Derby? I'm sure there will be. Tomcito has a strong 2 year old foundation... that's for sure.

I think Big Brown looks awesome as well and he could very well be something special. However, he will have to run no worse than second to get into the KY Derby. I also agree he won't have the foundation to do it. Not that this won't be broken at some point in the future, but I just don't see it happening any time soon. I love Tomcito to win the Fl Derby and would love to see it happen. It would be something to have him going to the Derby off that victory and seeing strong performances elsewhere can only enhance the odds on May 3rd.

Mr. Derby, No way will Tomcito win, No Way! I don't see him finishing in the top 5 of the race. Whether he needs the race or not. He has never faced anything like he will face in the Florida Derby. Running late is not the ticket for this years derby contenders. If you can't make the 4-5 bracket down the back stretch. It's to tough to make up the distance. Tomcito is not Pyro. Even Pyro trainer Steve admitted to having Pyro running closer to the pace.

Don't trade your paper.

Barry - I bet you doubted Cannonero II as well, didn't you? He didn't beat much before the Derby, but came to US and beat the best we had in 1971. Most of the general public didn't give him a look going in the race and look what he went on to do. Botom line, doesn't matter where a horse comes from or has been, but it's heart and ability to win. Feel free to run with the idea he won't win, but I have a sneaking suspicion he will run a huge race. Since Prado knows the track, trainer, and horse well, he will either have him closer to pace or will move much earlier than he would at Churchill/Belmont. Luckily, there is a ton of speed in this race and there will be several targets. I look for Prado to keep tabs on Big Brown and start moving when he does. Then, it will make for an interesting race down the stretch. Still sticking with my guns.....Tomcito takes this one and for the second time in three years Prado is on the buzz horse going into the Derby. By the way, just because Pyro can lay closer in a 1 1/16 race doesn't mean he will @ 10 furlongs. I like the horse, but don't think he can get it done at 10+ furlongs. Honestly, I don't like Steve at all, as he is dirty as they come and I refuse to cheer for cheaters that manipulate the game. Same goes for TP!

at 80-90% I will be looking elsewhere.

Smooth Air?? Hey Byrn??

Mr. Derby, I am sure Mike will have alot to say about the Pyro comment. Look-out my friend. Mike a tiger this year about Pyro. Thus far he been dead on.

Good Luck though, that why we have multiple windows to stand before at the race track.
Don't look left (Big Brown fan), don't look right (E-Fields fan).

Just keep your eyes fixed straight ahead and don't get shut-out. That's the worst feeling of all, unless you lose the race, then you don't know what to feel.

I am hoping you get shut out. I want you to save your money for the claiming races.

Better odds and a better results.

We shall see...

Okay, just read where Prado will be riding in Dubai next Saturday and not on Tomcito. Now, I am somewhat baffled. Hopefully, a good rider will pick up the mount. I haven't seen or heard of any other big jocks coming to town. However, I would be willing to bet Calvin Borel would be willing if asked.....Not to mention, he doesn't currently have a Derby mount. At least there's no worry of Albarado riding, as he will be in Dubai as well. Let's just hope R. Dominguez isn't going to be in town and considered for the mount. Sorry, to any fans that like him, he just seems get horses in trouble every time he rides in big races. Two instances that come to mind - Chelokee in last year's Fl. Derby and Scrappy T in the Preakness a few years back. Thank goodness AA was a phenomenal horse and was able to overcome the incident and no one was injured.

DerbyFan78,

I believe that Jorge Chavez who rode Monarchos to victory in the 2001 Kentucky Derby will have the mount on Tomcito.

Okay, thanks. That's a better choice than Dominguez. So, I am not so upset. Chop Chop is a good rider, but prefers the front and has done quite well in that position. Although, that's not quite Tomcito's style. Oh well. Definitely a better choice than Dominguez and as Dutrow would say "I am all in!"

They'll all have to Face and beat the Cat/