The hype! The hype!

I agree, Big Brown races is not much above any other three year old thus far?

He may be special or not. If Big Brown beats this field by 5-7 lengths ,okay dial me in. He qualifies as a top tier horse, but still is not rated the best unless you compete against the best and win. Therefore, War Pass and Pyro remains the best until they are soundly beaten without excuses.

Okay, I'll become a Big Brown fan for the moment. I believe in late bloomer and the greatness of thoroughbred racing. Okay that was the moment!

This race will produce a close finish on the line three or four horses at least within 1 length or less. Since everyone is on the statistical post position question, can someone tell me which horses nose is the largest? and has the longest stride?

At least talk about something significant which cross the finish line and determines first place?

Dan, Elysium Fields, Fierce Wind, Majestic Warrior and finally Big Brown

Danny boy!

Very suprised that you are not all over this horse. You loved the hype on Curlin last year and you ate it up. You were close on Derby Day, but your expertise in the long run has been displayed with the Horse of the Year Award.

I agree with you though.

Like your top three and will be using others.

Why has the other blogs so far this year all mention Tomcito, but now nobody is picking him? I'll take a shot at 12-1 and FTL.

Do you guys want a sleeper in here??? Majestic Warrior has the breeding, the connections & the style to make one run at them at the top of the strerch. The fact that Gomez went to UAE leaves Dougles in a nice pick up mount. Hmmm lets see the pace will be torid when everyone and there mom and dad gun for the front, (Majestic will settle). Then the Big Purple, I mean Big Brown and Face the Cat will have to try not to clip heals and in doing so will go wide, hmmm. In the mean time Elysium Fields, Hey Byrn & Nistles Crunch will sit right of the front runners, Fierce Wind, Smooth Air, Da'Tara and anyone else foolish enough to come to the front. By the 1/4 pole Firce Wind puts away a couple, maybe Da'Tara and Tomcito.. Then Smooth Air will try to run them down and as they are looking in each others eyes, Elysium Fieldss will be passing them by and riding his draft will be Nistle's Crunch. Somehow Face the Cat will be at the rail making it interesting when suddently out of no where as the imaginery red carper is rolled out down the last 100 yards, Majestic Warrior will be telling them, (remember me??), I was the one favored against Pyro and War Pass just to races ago.....

Majestic Warrior Wins it...
Elisium Fields 2nd
Nistle's Crunch 3rd
Big Brown picks up a check for 4th...

But since I have the worst luck in the world, just box the 4 and regardless of the combo, it will pay nicely...

SoCalAl

Fierce Wind has alot going for him, I am going to try a new custom point system based on several factors including posts, pp's, growth, track experience, distance experience, running style, etc.... so with that I came up with
W-Fierce Wind
P-Big Brown
S-Hey Byrn

Although Big Brown sounds like a nice fella, I think he's going to finish out of the money. In my humble opinion, Elysium Fields and Fierce Wind will etch their names on racing fans memory as they head to the big dance on May 3rd.

Dan, Big Brown, War Pass and Pyro are the only ones to eclipse the 100 beyer mark, or maybe I missed someone...Big Brown has done it both times out, and it looks like 100 might be his starting point right now, while the rest of the derby hopefuls can not reach that high. Just a thought.

patbateman - you must not follow the west coast. Bob Black Jack, Georgie Boy, and Gayego all have over 100 beyers. Not that I like any of those. Go with Tomcito tomorrow. Wait a second, I mean everyone jump to Big Brown. Bet him down to 7-5 and let Tomcito crawl up to 20-1.

I'm looking to pay some bills.

If I could bet on Tomcito finishing out of the money, I would be on that. The finishing times of his past races are not really impressive, and he is running on a speed bias track this time...nevertheless I am sure he will get a huge amount of action at the windows because of the impressive videos of him passing tired horses...not that I am complaining. If I am wrong I will be looking forward to seeing him again on May 3.

Barry,

The Florida Derby has shaped up to be one of the toughest Triple Crown preps and could be a great betting race with lots of value.

In my opinion, from a pedigree standpoint, the class of the field in alphabetical order is Big Brown, Elysium Fields, Majestic Warrior and Tomcito. Pedigree is no guarantee of success but it is very important in the classic prep races.

At 12-1 and 15-1 morning line I’ll use Tomcito (4), Majestic Warrior (10) and I’ll also use 20-1 morning line Da’ Tara (3) over Elysium Fields (8) and Big Brown (12).

Tomcito may be the most accomplished of all the colts on the Triple Crown trail. The track where he raced in Peru, Hippodromo de Monte, was as deep as a bog. With a 4-1-0 record in 5 starts; 2 G1 wins at 1¼ and 1½ miles and a 2nd in a G2, Tomcito would probably be the Florida Derby favorite if his victories had been posted in the United States. Tomcito has shown that he’s versatile scoring wins at both sprint and route distances. He gets first-time lasix and he’s been working up a storm at Palm Meadows. Another thing that impressed me is that his trainer shipped Tomcito to Gulfstream Park on March 17th to see how he would take to the Gulfstream track and Tomcito responded with a bullet :58 4/5. (sripa1212, I hope Tomcito is more 90% than 80%. Good Luck!).

Majestic Warrior has been one of my favorites for quite some time and I can’t give up on him just yet. He has the pedigree to wear the Roses in May but he has yet to live up to his breeding. He should do better in his second start off of the layoff.

Nick Zito must think that Da’ Tara has as good a chance as Fierce Wind to either win or hit the board. They both get the advantage of the inside posts but at 20-1, I’ll use Da’ Tara.

Elysium Fields has a first-class pedigree but at 1 1/8 miles I believe that Elysium Fields will come up a bit short. I believe that Elysium Fields is just getting started running at 1 1/8 and he’ll do better as the distance gets further.

Big Brown is very talented and has a first-class pedigree. However, I believe that he’ll also come up a bit short.

W/P: 3-4-10
Exacta: 3-4-10; 3-4-8-10-12. Depending on the Exacta pool odds, may play an exacta box on 3-4-10.
Trifecta: 3-4-10; 3-4-8-10-12; 3-8-12.

Tampa 2 / Nistle's Crunch, Hey Byrn, and Elysium Fields

Include Da'Tara in $0.50 P4

I believe Georgie Boy, Bob Black Jack and Gayego all earned 100 Beyers at sprint distances. GB received a 92 BSF for his San Felipe, and G and BBJ lower than that.
Big Brown's 100 plus BSF is for a mile, and he also had a high speed number going 1-1/16 on turf. The highest 3 year old BSF at 2 turns in Calif. is 99 for El Gato Malo in the San Rafael (boy's BSF). So P Bateman has a point IMO...

As for BB, that is why they run the races...

I can remember everyone dissing Hard Spun at this site last year pre-Derby after his super fast 5 furlong breeze. Said he left his race on the track that day! Justin, Joel, almost everyone was dissing the Cowboy Larry Jones.

Looks like Jones knew what he was doing, and all the speculation and diatribe was worth nothing. Good luck to all betting on the FL Derby, its why they run the race, right?

If the post affects BB, I still think he will hit the board. If he runs like he did in the Allowance race, watch out. And BTW, Tomcito is a value and if he stays there I will play also. And BB was not pressed last race because BB was the one pressing the pace, along with Crimson Comic. I also think Fierce Wind may run well and be gunning it from the 1 hole, with Smooth Air right there as well. But what will happen if they run 6 panels in 1:10? The form says it all.

ihatepolytrack,

I guess you're right, I don't remember the west coasters running big figures, I guess it was those 7f or 6f races that I don't even consider relevant in the first place....ok I will bet a litle on Big Brown today because he looks to be the class of the race and is in top form apparently, and who knows when he might have another quarter crack so lets bet him while he's feeling good.

Im throwing out all the stats, records are made to be broken just ask Tiger Woods...After handicapping this race for a few days i have decided to play BIG BROWN.. I dont believe there is a whole lot speed so Kent can Gun to the front and stalk...Trainer Rick Dutrow opted to stay here and saddle this horse instead of going to Dubai...Handicappers know that 2nd and 3rd time back off the layoff is great, and if this horse runs better than he did last time out well lets just say the rest better lace up there running shoes.....I just seen Honour Devil win the UAE DERBY he looked very good..

Well Dutrow didnt need to be there BENNY THE BULL wins the Dubai Sprint... Like i said before Americans own that race!!

Tomcito, Elysium Fields, Fierce Wind, Smooth Air exacta box. I like Tomcito on top. Hey, taking a shot.

Did we all get our answer??????? Thanks to all who didn't like Big Brown and the "hype", you helped contribute to nice tri and super payouts for me. Get used to the hype because it is hear to stay. If this horse stays healthy look for fireworks at Churchill. Lets hear what all the doubters have to say now.

Awfully quiet here after the Big Brown win.

Looked awfully dominant, Dan. Fast fractions, yet freakish stamina. Like a combo of Hard Spun and Curlin. Of course, he needs to do that at 10f, and I also thought Smooth Air and Tomcito (last to third) showed they belong. But BB is looking very good.

Dutrow hits the hat trick. And Big Brown does sound like a nice fella...

Curlin looked great today as well in Dubai.

But everyone seems stunned that BB won with such ease from the 12 hole.

Big Brown deserved the criticism before the race but now, there is not much to say. He looked like an absolute freak on the track. There is no looking at it any other way. This was the most impressive derby prep race I have seen in a few years.

Simply put; Big Brown is a MACHINE. Hope he holds up physically.

Solid contender.

ihatepolytrack, you baited me into betting on Big Brown. Thank you.

What an impressive run, he could be one of the greats if he holds up physically. He should improve and it will take a 110 beyer to beat him in Louisville, I feel.

Dan Dan Dan,
Did you not watch the Florida Derby??????? Big Brown only #10 on your updated Top 10 list. Are you telling me that he is not better than the two horses he just beat (Fierce Wind, Elysium Fields) and a horse who ran the same distance/track two seconds slower (Cool Coal Man). I mean I would understand if this was a sprinter that might have stretching out questions, but this is a horse who has never raced under a mile. I think the most impressive thing about him is the fact that he ran his last 5/16's of a mile in his maiden win in under 29 seconds, with his last 1/16th in less than 6. I dont care who you are and what kind of horse it is, that is IMPRESSIVE!!!!! Keep doubting him, but I have a feeling you are going to come around com Derby or maybe Preakness time.

Oh yeah, He's definately not better than Texas Wildcatter. COME ON!!

IT WAS ONE RACE ON A CONVEYOR BELT FOR SPEED TRACK

Denis of Cork's last race was at a mile

Thanks Dan thats more like it.