War Pass in a no-win situation

I am not a Big Brown backer at all, but "highly unlikely" is pushing it a little. You have to give him consideration off of that performance no matter how many times he has raced.

Wow, I am not a Big Brown fan either but I can certainly see he is a colt that not only can devistate a Florida field but looks like he can improve some and if he decides to mature on the 1st Saturday in May, look out..!

Texas Wildcatter?? Hmmm, I think this colt has to get through a whole lot of obsticles just to hit the board in this race but if ou think you can get him all the way to 1st place then, more power to you. As far as I am concerned he has to gett hrough War pass, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati and Giant Moon. Well good luck to you, in the mean time I am sticking with Dennis in the Illinois Derby....

SoCalAl

Dan,

Do you have that Anak Nakal ticket in a safe place?

haha

I got mine too justin, 50 at 50-1

try to beat Street Sense followed by try to beat Big Brown...a refusal to acknowledge greatness until it has passed you by.

I think it is absolutely hilarious that Bob Baffert is listed as the trainer for "All other 3 year olds" in the Derby Future Pools Current Odds on this site.

Cdpotato, I have found that to be funny too, and it has been that way for all 3 pools I think. Maybe D Wayne Lukas should get some credit too, the Derby isn't the same without those sunglasses and Rick Pitino suits. Any reason Z Fortune is 23-1 right now? I know don't look at the odds until late Sunday afternoon but it sort of jumped out at me a little. I will have to bet a little on Blackberry Road and Gayego just in case Z Fortune doesn't qualify for the Derby because I'm already loaded up on him in the first 2 pools and need some insurance out of the Arkansas Derby. Those 2 could both offer odds over 50-1 in pool 3, which is acceptable.

This way I will have Z Fortune, Gayego, Blackberry Road and the pool 2 field covered, and this time I'm going to throw down on Pyro if he is around 5 to one. That will leave me with nothing to do on Derby day but bet Big Brown to win, on top of exactas, trifectas, superfectas, etc. And if Big Brown for any reason doesn't race, I've got Pyro at 5-1.

Big Brown ran a big race, but let's not forget that he went markedly slower each quarter, particularly his third. Smooth Air is a nice trier, but he's still Smooth Air. Keep in mind, too, that Electrify is a nice Grade 2 1/2 horse, but certainly no monster, and he ran faster that day. Ultimately, the pace set-up of the Derby will get Big Brown. Horses just don't win it running slower and slower throughout; you've got to have a few gears. Plus, depending on how your War Pass does tomorrow, Dan, it won't just be Nistle's Crunch (NJ-bred!) chasing him early. Pyro still the most likely winner with Colonel John the logical threat and two you also like, Cool Coal Man and Visionaire, that stand to get ideal set-ups in Derby. Will be good to have Big Brown to bet against.

I agree slewyou, its good to have people who don't like your horse in the Derby. Big Brown should improve further, everyone else should have done most of the improving by now. I'll take my chances, and you money.

I know a good tooth fairy. She know exactly what to do with all under the pillow tricks.

I going to slip her a dollar. See ya in the morning.

Then again, maybe not?

Okay, War Pass is a Pass!

This year Derby is wide open, I can't imagine the favorite going off less than 3-1

I believe the First thru Seven spread of horses odds are 3-1 to 12-1

What action we shall receive.............

War Pass and Denis of Cork make you think twice about playing the future wager at all...neither one should be on the track May 3rd, unless they're on the undercard at a mile maybe. So will Garrett Gomez stick with Court Vision or will he ride Z Fortune in Louisville. That run by Ekati gives me hope that Z Fortune can turn it around next weekend. Tiago by a booger was awesome, it paid for all of my pool 3 future wager tickets.

Court Vision doesn't have that explosive kick that you need when running that far off the pace. I was a huge fan, now having major doubts. Seems better suited for the Belmont.... wonder if he would be better running mid-pack instead.

Dennis of Cork = overrated (probably not anymore)

Colonel John was very impressive. You could literally see the overdrive kick in. He has the explosive punch I wish Court Vision would have displayed today. Long strides, probably will transfer well to dirt. I can definitely see CJ and Pyro running stride for stride down the stretch trying to catch Big Brown. How beautiful of a Derby would that be?

I am now convinced Georgie Boy would have ran away with the derby. Too bad about the injury, but I am very excited for his return this summer.

As good as Georgie Boy looked in his last... I don't think he would have won the SA Derby let alone the KD. I'm a West Coaster and have liked Colonel John for awhile. Have a good chunk on him at 18-1 between pools 1 and 2 and happy about it. Just praying for a healthy horse come Derby day and a decent start. Can't ask for more than that. CJ will likely go off as 3rd choice or higher in the Derby. If he's 8-1 or higher by the end of Pool 3... think its a bargain. His final 3/8's and quarter in the SA Derby were phenomenal... what you like to see in a Derby horse.

I think Pyro is legit and want to see his Bluegrass. I'm hoping Big Brown and Pyro fans will pound their horses in Pool 3 and on Derby day. Believe CJ is the real deal and will relish 1 1/4. Don't buy the synthetic surface as a problem issue either with CJ being out of Tiznow and Turkoman on the dam side.

From a betting standpoint, I'd hope War Pass would run in the Derby as it might compromise BB. But when purely looking out for the horse... I don't think they should run him despite his 2nd in the Wood. He staggered home in slow time and sure doesn't appear to be a 1 1/4 horse. I'd pass and look for better spots for him at shorter distances.

Recapturetheglory looked good. At this point he's not nominated is he? His come home times were quite fast also. Not sure he can reproduce those in the Derby if he wants to run near the lead though.

War Pass and J Be K should point for the Met Mile against older. That would be quite a race.

Colonel John is a synth machine. He looks so much more grown up from last season. Might win the Derby beauty pagent. I'd be concerned about 2 things. 1) Horses that win on the "new" SA course don't seem to run as well on dirt, although Heatseeker ran a big one yesterday. 2) It's possible he's peaking a bit early. I said earlier his last work, a bullet, was Smarty Jones like. Power, speed, and no urging whatsoever from the jockey. It would be a good piece of training to keep that form for the next month with the ship and the new surface. He looked terrific though.

Based on the fact that dirt horses don't win at the new SA, I guess I shouldn't toss my pick, Yankee Bravo, but he sure looked like a horse that wants shorter. Bob Black Jack is a sneaky longshot who's getting right (and getting tactical) at the right time. I think he warrants another step forward on dirt which would put him right there at like 80-1. 10f is a question mark, but the price might be right.

We all know War Pass wont hit the ticket in th Derby as i have been saying everyone agree now??

yeah Mike, War Pass mmmmmm. Colonel John very nice......

Derbyme, I mentioned Bob Black Jack a couple weeks ago and you all ignored me... he paid me....

Big Brown "highly unlikely"? Tale of Ekati "slow and overrated"? Well, that slow and overrated horse did very well for me yesterday, very well indeed...as did War Pass. I enjoyed my return on the TOE\WP exacta!

For one, War Pass SHOULD run the Derby. I've seen him finish in person. He can give Big Brown and Pyro a good race. By the way, don't discount TOE just yet. Prado is just getting his feet wet with that horse and boy does that horse LOVE to run! Pyro is a great horse, yes, but remember, War Pass beat the SADDLE off him in several races. How soon the crowd forgets when there is a slight setback.

I say, bring on the rematch of War Pass, Pyro and Tale of Ekati AND throw Big Brown and Colonel John in the mix! Don't forget Court Vision, Visionaire and, of course, Big Truck! This is gonna make for an AWESOME derby this year!

Lastly, I think Dan should just forget about blogging his opinion this year. Jill Byrne has a handle on what's going on. I think Dan should sit it out til next year. Egg on your face again, Dan...it's not looking too good for you.

If the Derby were run at 1 1/16th miles then War Pass would desrve to be a top 3 favorite...The extra distance makes the War Pass owns Pyro argument invalid.

While some people seem to be getting a clearer picture for May 3rd, I certainly am not. Which is cool, because it means that I'll probably be surprised this year, no matter what happens. But not so great as we're closing in on the Big Day and I still can't make up my mind who to bet.

Earlier in the year, I felt that War Pass had a chance to wire the field on Derby Day, so long as there was nobody to press him on the front end (at the time, there didn't seem to be anyone who could). Well, haha, I should have known to wait until the 'other' three year olds started cropping up. I didn't expect him to win the Wood, but I was actually surprised to see him hang on for second. Of course, he'll probably still be in the gate on May 3rd (he's earned it), and I'm sure he'll get a mile and a quarter - behind about sixteen or so other horses. Maybe I'm wrong.

Big Brown. I kept expecting him to fold in FL, and he didn't, but. . . Like others, I really like this guy's raw talent, and he sure looked great in the FL Derby, but I don't like that he has foot issues or that he doesn't really have very much (if any) foundation. I do give him more of a chance than War Pass though, and a legitimate chance if he can rate as he did in his allowance race before the FL Derby.

I liked Pyro at 2, love him at 3, but I would like to see him close into some fast fractions and win because, yes, he did get his boody whooped by WP last year (was it three times?), in races with faster fractions than his two preps so far this year - though I agree that the extra distance probably does make this argument invalid, and he's probably still my top pick (or close to it).

I'm probably one of the few people that has liked Blackberry Road, and I'm giving him one last chance in the AK Derby, but I'm pretty doubtful at this point.

I do like Colonel John though. Think he'll transfer fine to dirt; can't wait to see his workout over the Churchill surface. I also like Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, and Tomcito, for various reasons. Does anyone have any opinions/thoughts about a colt named Miner's Claim, who may be appearing in the Blue Grass?

On a completely different note, I finally saw Casino Drive's maiden race and a note that he's currently in quarantine in Japan to hopefully arrive here early in May for a Belmont Prep in the Peter Pan. Yes, the time was very (very) slow for 8.5 furlongs, and while I don't know how to compare a track surface here with Kyoto Racecourse, it was the fact that he did it so very easily, without even trying. Has anyone else seen this race, and if so, what did you think of it?

1:52^2! Every horse that ran in the Wood is a toss derby day.

cdpotato,

It was still Ekati's second run of the season, so he may still improve, but I wouldn't think of betting him at 18-1. Maybe Court Vision is going to improve, Gomez is going to stay on him over Colonel John and Z Fortune. Woops! I don't like Court Vision at 20-1 either. I didn't like the slow times either and it may have taken a lot out of War Pass in particular...its hard to tell. So Albarado is on Z Fortune, no comment.

It was the slowest the Wood was run since 1952!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_Memorial_Stakes

'52 was the first time the race was run at 1 1/8m.

1:52^2!!!

This is embarrassing and none of these horses should be at Churchill on the 1st Saturday in May! This may have been the most disappointing derby prep that I have ever witnessed! They were walking home!

1:52^2!!!

The winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby has not had his final prep yet! I will take someone from Keeneland as my top pick. Who..., it is yet to be determined.

But I know one thing is for sure...THOSE HORSES FROM THE BIG A WON'T BE WITHIN 15 LENGTHS OF THE WINNER AT CHURCHILL!

Uck! Ew! Disgusting to watch and it made me want to puke! 1:52^2!! Uh! Someone stop me now!

1:52^2!!! EEYORE could have beaten them home! Nobody in the right mind can honestly think any of these horses have a chance at Churchill!

They came home the final 8th in :13.93!! Yuck!! Blahhh!!

1:52^2!!!!

I have to agree he was begging for the wire, looked like he was running in slow motion...Anyone using him in exotics im sorry but you have to be either rich or just dumb... I agree with pat if the derby were 1 1/16 hes usable but at 1 1/4 theres just absolutely no way,,,

Agree the Wood was especially slow and War Pass winning the Derby is not likely. However, stranger things have happened. Now, I probably won't be placing any wagers on the top three finishers in the Wood, but will pay close attention to them Derby week. It was nice to see WP giving everything down the stretch instead of tucking his tail and backing up. Honestly, there haven't been too many prep races with impressive times this year. Albeit, there were a few, but not many. I admit Pyro was impressive in the way he finished his races, but definitely not the times. Unless something extraordinary happens in the AK Derby next week, this Derby is shaping up to be a strange race. Additionally, several riders have yet to be named. I haven't seen anything regarding Prado on TOE or any other horse. Same goes for Albarado, John V., Borel, and many others. It will be interesting to see where Prado lands.