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Blue Grass not about the best horse

posted by Dan Shapiro on April 11, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Cool Coal Man (Photo by: Coglianese Photos)Cool Coal Man (Photo by: Coglianese Photos)

There's a Grade 1, $750,000 Kentucky Derby prep on Saturday at Keeneland and, as far as the Derby picture goes, it doesn't really matter who wins.

Check out a few quotes from Jay Privman's Blue Grass preview story in Daily Racing Form:

Steve Asmussen, trainer of even-money morning-line favorite Pyro: "I'd like him to win it, but, more importantly, I'd like him to get enough out of it to go on and win the Derby."

Nick Zito, trainer of second choice Cool Coal Man: "I want him to get a nice race out of it. That's why I chose the Blue Grass. Look at Street Sense last year. That's a good criteria. The Blue Grass is a Grade 1. It's a great race to win. But if he has a good race, I'll be very happy."

Doesn't inspire too much confidence if you are planning on betting either of these horses, huh?

As we saw in last year's Blue Grass, run for the first time on Polytrack, almost anything can happen over the new surface. It's a surface that generally favors turf horses and deep closers. It seems to prevent large margins of victory and breakout performances.

Last year, the top four Blue Grass finishers -- Dominican (8-1), Street Sense (1-1), Zanjero (7-1) and Teuflesberg (10-1) -- were separated by a nose and two heads. The result didn't fool many people, as their final odds in the Kentucky Derby were 24-1, 4-1, 36-1 and 51-1, respectively. Of course, Street Sense dusted them all under the Twin Spires.

This year, Pyro and Cool Coal Man have the graded earnings and experience to get into the Derby field. They just need to maintain their form and get around the track safely. I won't downgrade them on my Derby Top 20 list as long as they run respectably on Saturday. But, as a horseplayer, I get excited for situations like this.

So who's really trying to win this year's Blue Grass?

I know for sure Todd Pletcher is. He's got Cowboy Cal and Monba.

Cowboy Cal is a turf specialist and this is a rare and perfect spot for the Giant's Causeway colt to earn a Grade 1 victory and enhance his future value as a stallion. I doubt Pletcher would even be thinking about the Blue Grass if this were on traditional dirt. The colt's lone dirt try, his debut last year at Saratoga, was a disaster. Monba is light in the graded earnings department and has already shown an affinity for synthetic surfaces.

Anther interesting and somewhat overlooked contender is Medjool. Breaking from the 11 post, he ran a monster race in the Lane's End over at Turfway Park (also run over Polytrack). He was caught extremely wide both turns and ran deceptively well when finishing third behind Adriano. The son of 2001 Derby winner Monarchos looks primed to run another good one at Keeneland.

Blue Grass Stakes picks: Cowboy Cal, Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Medjool.

Join the Discussion

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Cdpotato4

04/11/2008 3:57 pm

Shakis in the Maker's Mark! To be run in 10 minutes! Run to the window!

beebs4201

04/11/2008 4:37 pm

I am looking at including Miner's Claim in all of my tickets for the Bluegrass. He came back and ran a pretty good race in the Rushaway off of a layoff. He should be more fit to run on Saturday and I think he was a little out of his element on the lead in the Rushaway.

jazzybrick

04/11/2008 9:02 pm

With Pyro's late finishes, and especially Cool Cold Man running out of the one hole, I don't think you can discount these guys for the Blue Grass. On the other hand, Medjool, Z Fortune, and last but not least, Visionaire, should show up with their party hats on for this one. Maybe Asmussen and Zito are looking at the bonus money if they win the Blue Grass and Derby?

After having to eat my hat after watching Big Brown take the lead and not look back during the Florida Derby, when everyone said no horse had won from the 12 hole since the track was reconfigured, excuse me, anything is possible. Although, I might be eating another hat after this race too!

mike barker

04/11/2008 11:35 pm

There wont be any fog this time so you will see Visionaire coming like a rocket at them if he gets the right set up, cmon 6 panels in 1:10

mike barker

04/11/2008 11:35 pm

There wont be any fog this time so you will see Visionaire coming like a rocket at them if he gets the right set up, cmon 6 panels in 1:10

Cdpotato4

04/12/2008 10:14 am

jwbryxjtvw'eriqubrgwvkywfe'aaar'jwa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ryanmoseley

04/12/2008 4:43 pm

The Bluegrass was a laugh. None of the first 4 have a prayer in the Derby. This reminder that synthetics are not dirt has me doubting the merits of Colonel John!

ryanmoseley

04/12/2008 7:58 pm

Scrap that. Well done Gayego. Scrap all Keenland poly results.

DrMax944

04/12/2008 9:54 pm

After watching this year's running of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, I now fully understand what Bob Baffert meant when he said, "Synthetic surfaces make super horses look average and average horses look super!" They also are very boring to watch! I feel like I am watch horses on a merry-go-round bouncing-up-and-down until they come to the stretch run and often the stretch runs are not very entertaining either. They are often a parade! And I always found parades boring, how about you?

Cdpotato4

04/12/2008 10:15 pm

gayego looked great! But u betta play someone out of the bg because one of those horses will win the derby!

jazzybrick

04/13/2008 8:38 am

I'm running out of hats, just ate another one. Once again, my best laid plans were spoiled. I agree with the statement about Poly-turf, these guys will never win it on May 3rd. Although, Z Fortune has just improved himself in my book.

longshot22

04/13/2008 12:18 pm

If Z Fortune wasn't wide the whole race he wins by 2 to 3 lengths i think. Gayego got a lot better trip!

Cdpotato4

04/13/2008 1:12 pm

Gayego stalked the fastest fractions we have seen this year and still won! Z Fortune would not have caught him had they went 1 1/4m.

It was almost as if every time Z made a bid for the lead, Gayego dug in and said "Uh uh, I'm taking this one." Z wouldn't have caught him.

DerbyFan78

04/13/2008 2:02 pm

Cdpotato - agree about Gayego. If CJ would have come East and won prior to the Derby he would be in the top 5 for me. However, he didn't and Gayego did. So, Gayego is there. For all of those who will say CJ proved more out West, you are correct. However, he didn't come East beforehand and serves no more indication of a Derby winner than Monba, Cowboy Cal, or Adriano.

patbateman

04/13/2008 8:03 pm

Cdpotato, you are right about yesterday's race, Gayego was primed and at 100 percent off his prior start, and ran a great race, a very similar race to what Sierra Sunset ran as far as track position at least. Z Fortune was not at 100% coming off his last race, and challenged as well as he did based on class, not fitness. He should be much closer to the top next time out, and the preliminary Beyer I understand was 103 for the race so Z Fortune isn't too far off of that...If you saw the gallop out though it looked like Z Fortune could handle more distance and what else is Mike Smith going to say after winning the race? That Gayego can't get the distance?