Eight Belles: Why not?

Dan ... I'm not sure how big a shot Eight Belles has to beat the boys in a couple of weeks ... but I agree that the connections might as well give it a shot because this is one lousy crop of colts ... Eight Belles displayed some push-button type speed coming around the final turn in a couple of her preps that was visually breathtaking ... was hoping you could answer a couple of questions ... what will she go off if she runs? ... where will she be positioned? (ideally) ... and describe the race scenario you have invisioned that puts her in front at the wire ... thanks

I like the fact that you are taking a stance with this filly Dan. Your argument is based on how well the filly has run up to this point and how you think she will handle the distance. I can dig it.

I just don't think that this crop of three year olds is as bad as people think it is. You list question marks for several colts...but don't they all have questions coming into this race? The filly is certainly no exception, but she'd have to reward her backers generously at the window to make it worth your while. If she enters, her odds won't be short...but they'll be shorter than she's worth. Too many people will bet on her just because she's a filly in the Derby and the Rags to Riches victory in the Belmont is a fresh memory. Course, if you think she's gonna win the race, you bet on her and take whatever odds you get, right?

I'm not sold on her yet. I think Colonel John looks as impressive as any colt has looked coming into this race in recent years. He's beaten several horses that have left CA and had good showings. I'm not concerned about the synthetic to dirt transition. If he works poorly at CD, I'll be concerned.

I think you are off your rocker. First of all, graded earnings should be given to those that run in "open" competition. Horses like Denis of Cork and others may be bumped out of the Derby by a filly who has raced against lower competition (fillies).

To race against the best she should have already faced the boys and earned a shot. Beating "other" fillies does not mean you have beat the best in the nation - it means you beat other fillies. She looks like a fantastic filly but seemed to struggle to get by in her last race. I have no problems with a filly in the race, just earn it by beating the colts once - or even run evenly with them. I can't stand the fact that she may enter both and then scratch if she gets a bad post. They already admit she wouldn't win. If she is good enough to be in the race then she should be good enough to win from an outside post. If not, don't enter the race!

Scratching from the Derby for an injury is one thing - but to scratch because of a bad post is just plain wrong. You are in it to win it or don't enter.

But that is fine - She will take some of the dead money, which will leave me better odds on my horse come Derby Day.

Like my man says - It's the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance.

--JJJimmyJam

Dan-

I decided to put a few dollars on "all others" in pool 3 at 14/1 and one of the main reasons was the fact that Eight Belles was among those who were potentially in that group. (Of course, Monba and a few of the others are nice back-ups to what could be a very nice "saver" ticket.)

JJJimmyJam- The system has to be changed to weight 2 turn races against horses of any sex as 3 year olds on the dirt (or poly I guess, they aren't gonna change that) more heavily than fillie races, sprints, grass races, 2yo races etc. but I'm not holding my breath. While I think that Eight Belles has a BIG chance to win, I agree she should have had to take on the boys in a prep or two in order to have the chance to do so.

I'm not sure on Eight Belles, Dan. Here's my take:

She hasn't faced any large fields. Or been roughed up a bit to withstand first time against 19 colts.

She hasn't faced colts yet.

As recently as late January she was still racing at the allowance level.

The pace in all of her distance races has been run in the 1.12.2-1.14.1 furlong range. Can she keep up behind a fast pace and still be within range to give the same closing kick?

She got her best Byr. and Bris numbers in her last 2 races. Yes, competitive with the colts. But against fields of 4 and 6.

She hasn't raced at a 1 1/8.

So those are the points and questions I have. I don't have a problem with her being in the race IF they plan to run her no matter what. But I sure don't believe she deserves a number 1 ranking and have serious doubts that she can win.

I've been all about this filly, all year. However, the Unbridled's Song always worried me. He seems to get mostly sprinters, but good ones. She seemed to take a step back in her last race, though she still ran a big number. I wonder if it had to do with the fact that she's reaching her distance limit, or if her last few races were such workouts she was losing fitness. Anyway, a hard race like the Fantasy is what she needed to get her fitness up to where it has to be. 10f still seems awful far...

We're digging deep these days aren't we Shapiro? C'mon now. Lets get our feet back on earth and bring some handicapping insight to the table.

Jimmyjam sounds like he is 21st on the Graded earnings list. Since he reference Denis the Dork, I would say this is all sour grapes. I think Indian Sun has a better chance than both. But oh well...

I do however agree that it is crazy for a horse to enter and take a spot in the Derby field and then scratch. There needs to be a penalty for that, and it needs to cut deep and hurt these deep pockets that can throw their money around.

The really bad thing the last two years is that Derby Day, a day for great racing and great pools having some of the races on the card with 5 or 6 horse after 2,3 or 4 have been scratched??????

Let's see a blog about seeing if Churchill Downs can do something about more full fields on Oaks and Derby Day. Don't let these owners enter these horses to get tickets or entry or what ever they get and then see a 5 horse field come Derby day. I can't beleive lately that all these scratches on Derby Day are hurting horses? This isn't Auq or Calder, this is practically the best Two days in racing. Who ever is writing races this year needs to get these two days right with full 10-12 horse fields.

How is she gonna run in the Derby if Dominguez is on Monba????????? Shes not and ill be using her in the Oaks with Country Star, lets just hope she can win that race...

yea shes a great filly but she cant run in the derby because of what every one said she cant handle the big field and traffic. id expect her to be lower than 20-1 if she does go. and yea with ramon is a nogo. im hearing rumors that proud spell might head to the derby because of her win in the fair grounds oaks had a better ragozine number or something like that, they said her next work out would tell larry jones.

Rags to riches had the pedigree and beyond to win the Belmont. Half brother Jazil doing it the year before should have made Pletcher decide to point all arrows to derby first then NY. Since he didn't elect to run the derby (Todd i literally lost sleep over why you didn't give her a chance to run for the roses), I can't see where this filly should. She should not be compared to rags to riches either. Rags was far more superior of a filly at this point in time last year then Eight Belles. Way more raw talent. No GI's under Eight Belle's belt at all either. Larry Jones, I believe has a better filly in Proud spell. Originally was confusing this Eight Belles, when listed as a top derby prospect, as the winner of the Ashland (Little Belle). At least Little Belle knocked off three of the top 3 yr old fillies (Proud Spell, Country Star, and Bsharpsonata) all in the same race, giving her credibility to possibly contend with the boys on derby day. To sum it up, Eight Belles is just another Rockport Harbor for the Porter racing group.

-Cut

Eight Belles is 85 to 1 at the Wynn here in Vegas. Hilton doesnt even have a number on her and neither does any place else in vegas. Though Wynn and Hilton are the only ones I know who derby futures. So Dan if she wins you got a gift coming from me cuz I will win $50,000 if she wins the derby.

Go 8 Belles!

Dan,

I'm trying to understand your logic. Eight Belles is #1 on your Derby List, but only #2 on your Oaks list, behind Little Belle. Therefore you must believe that Little Belle is the best 3 year old in country?

In the words of Jim Valvano, Dan, "don't give up, don't ever give up."

Don't capitulate and just say, "I can't figure it out. Lets punt."

Its time to get serious about the Derby. This only happens once a year. Treat it like its the last Kentucky Derby ever and don't let Curlin's 2007 result influence your opinion at all. You know that Street Sense got the dream trip...there is a lot of luck involved...Winning Colors was on the lead the whole way, without traffic, and Eight Belles could only win if ten other horses bounced. There are 8 contenders to choose from for the win: Big Brown, Colonel John, Adriano, Pyro, War Pass, Z Fortune, Gayego, and...make it 7. Take your pick. Surely one of these looks good enough to win the Derby.

Eight Belles doesn't belong in the Derby, she should stick to the Oaks. She barely she got up to win her last race and she'll face much tougher horses if her connections insist on running her in the Derby.

If she does end up running in the Derby look down the track for her, somewhere between 8th and 15th. Hopefully she comes back in one piece.

The graded stakes earning criteria for the Derby desparately needs an overhaul. Those two year old earnings need to be looked at and adjusted according to the Grade in which they were earned. Delta Jackpot!!!

Dan-

Don't think you're crazy using Eight Belles but you did have a VERY MISLEADING comment regarding Monba on your "top 20 page"-Unproven on Dirt- This horse won his first start at Keeneland and then went to Churchill and won at a mile on the dirt right back- Let's see the pattern... won at keeneland and then went to Churchill and won-poly to dirt,keeneland to churchill? (and in my opinion winning right back off a maiden race is one of the toughest things for a horse to do) Does anyone besides me see a pattern here? And wouldn't it be something if the year lots of people counted Pletcher out was the year he finally "got off the snide"?

can we please get some dialogue going on war pass being out and what effect it will have on the flow of the race (if any at all) ... does this help big brown's chances or hurt them? (surely it hurts the price you are going to get) ... what about those on the cj/pyro bandwagon or anyone else coming from the back? ... obviously there is still a lot of speed in the race (and throw in the fact that bbj is now more likely to be in) ... but i do believe war pass would have been the one wanting the front the most and thereby running his heart out to not let anyone by at any early juncture ... any opinion on this is appreciated ...

Dan, you know I'm just joking around, right? Anyway, it looks like its down to 6 win contenders now, subject to post draw, in my book. I think the War Pass defection is good for the horse whether or not he was injured because I think the race would have possibly jeopardized his remaining career because he tries so hard and would run himself into the ground at a mile and a quarter. At least the horse is healthy and can make a comeback in the fall.

For the impact on the race I think it should benefit Big Brown and Gayego the most. Any other speed that goes out in front of them they can disregard if they want, and still go after it later, but with War Pass, you always had to wonder if he might just run off with the race if unchallenged. The pace should be a little slower and may be more like 2006 than 2005, in my mind.

I absolutely agree! Eight Belles has a good shot against this field. Until the Blue Grass, Pyro was the only superstar this year, but Eight Belles finished both of her 8.5 furlong races FASTER than Pyro finished his 3 year old 8.5 furlong races! And Eight Belles was under a hand ride for the one! She's better than all the fillies this year, so she deserves to have her shot at the colts.

Dan,
I have been waiting for this blog to come out for some time now. How could you possibly see this filly winning the Derby???????? First of all she isnt even the best filly. She has only beaten one Oaks contender on the website and that was Pure Clan who herself isnt even that good. Her stablemate is better than she is and they arent talking Derby with her or at least they shouldn't be. I might be able to see it if she was undefeated in her 2 year old starts but it took her three races at DELAWARE to break her maiden. I think the only reason she is getting so much hype is because she wins an allowance and an ungraded stake by double digits, she wins those by 5 or 6 we arent talking about this. I live around the area where Larry Jones is from and respected so I will tell you the money will come in on her because it always does for a Jones horse, so I am actually hoping she goes in the Derby so I get better odds on others. Actually, I hope she goes in the Oaks so I can get better odds on others there as well. I am sick of the hype with this filly, it's almost as bad as the hype with Tomcito, enough already!!!!!!!!!! I agree with mikehaircut, she is just way over hyped. Please, no more.

Can we stop being "sexist" here?

In Australia and South Africa fillies and mares beat colts all the time in Group One competition. A South African filly trained by Mike de Kock scored in a $5 million turf race over a tough filed of colts and geldings in Dubai a few weeks ago. It is not really the big deal people over here think it is.

It could be argued that Eight Belles is among the fastest of her generation, is in great form, and has very competent connections. Not many of her Derby competitors can say that. IF she was a colt, a lot of you sexists would be salivating about her Kentucky Derby chances. If you think losing Dominguez is a big deal, get back to me after Ramon D. wins a Triple Crown race. Saez can definitely do the job. I think the main issue is Eight Belles is bred to be a miler - Unbridled Song out of a Dixieland Band mare does not scream 10 furlongs.

I don't have her on top for the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but a rational discussion of her abilities has to put her into the top 5 or 6 horses. 10-1 would probably be fair odds, maybe 8-1 if the track is wet.

Since when is "lower" competition considered fillies? She is no different than any of the others. Undefeated in four starts this year, Eight Belles should be given as much, if not more attention, than the other horses.
Pyro's bad performance, though arguably inexcusable, is nonetheless ONE off day in a very consistent record. Before then he had yet to finish out of the money. Give him a break!
Honestly, many people agree with the fact that this year’s crop is mediocre at best. I disagree greatly. Nearly everyone said the same thing about 2006's crop of three-year-olds and look what came out of them! I think that they are all good but they are all on similar levels in terms of experience which makes it difficult to distinguish the talented members of the group. Honestly, the lack of starts that seems to be the trend in modern racing and the use of synthetic surfaces which improve the performance of otherwise bad horses seem to be the issues in finding a champ.

Eight Belles will not be at a disadvantage size-wise. She is 16.1 hands tall. She towers over her filly competition. He stride in the stretch is incredibly long and she had a good turn of foot. She has ok tactical speed early on. If she breaks ok she could factor. Her BSFs and times was as good, if not better, than Pyro's at the Fairgrounds.

She would not be in my top 5, but she is in the top 10. Her main issue with me would be never running at 9 furlongs and her pedigree. Unbridled Song is so so for distance breeding, but Dixieland Band (her Broodmare sire) was also Street Sense's broodmare sire, so I guess the pedigree issue is far from open and shut as a miler.

If EB gets a nice post and breaks well, she could factor. If she is to the inside of Big Brown and Gayego, she may be in big trouble.

tonykelso,
There is nothing sexist about it. You reference Australia and South Africa as places where fillies win Group 1's over males all the time and this indeed is very true. The only difference is these fillies have raced almost their entire careers against males. I have lived in Australia and know it all to well. The best horse there over the last decade was a mare, but she had raced against males her entire life. Day in and Day out, the maiden races there include colts, geldings, and fillies, which does NOT happen in the US. My arguement is that people shouldn't be so high on her if she hasn't proven herself against males. Her owners could have even put her in an allowance race to see if she was up to it, but to beat up on fillies that aren't even the cream of the crop of her own sex, COME ON. To put her on top of the list of ALL 3 year olds like Dan did is ludacris. That is just as ludacris as Jeff Siegel of HRTV putting Big Brown on top of his Derby list BEFORE the Florida Derby when he hadnt proved anything against anyone. Now that he has it is understandable. Last year Rags to Riches had a proven ability to dominate her sex before the Oaks so I could have seen a Derby try, but to beat up on suspect fillies, no chance. Like I said before, ENOUGH ALREADY!!!! This site should be about serious KY Derby contenders, not suspect fillies.

Dan,

I agree. Based upon a review of past derby winners, there are 3 characteristics that most derby winners possess: (1) Beyer figures of 100 or above, (2) improving form, and (3) ran within 3-4 lengths of the lead in prep races. The deep closers rarely win, unless the race falls apart (grindstone, giacomo) or they are lucky/really good (street sense). The horses that best meet these requirements are Big Brown, Gayego, and Eight Belles (& maybe Recapture the Glory, though I'll probably toss b/c of the easy lead). Another statistic we know to be true is that the derby winner is usually in front or near the front at the 1/8 pole. The horse that might best meet all of the above is Eight Belles. Many will knock her never facing boys or running in small fields, but she's learned valuable lessons that others (big brown) have not. In her allowance race 4 back, she passed in a tight spot between horses. In numerous races, she's taken dirt in her face. She's been in a fight (last race), and she has an explosive turn of foot not found in most of this year's colts. These are the type of traits which might allow her to find the front at the 1/8 pole, if big brown stops. I hope she runs & I hope we get 20/1, though I bet she'd go off closer to 12/1 on derby day.

Come on man...there are unemployed writers out here that this hurts to read. Nothing wrong with taking a shot, but the biggest knock is that she's only beat a three horse field in a GII, and a five horse field in a GIII. And you might note Tiznow was a decent dirt runner.

Proud Spell is the best 3-year old Filly without a question!

You guys can't be serious here with Eight Belles, Proud Spell would crush this horse in the Oaks!

Fox Hills and Larry Jones are following the established rules for entering the Derby with Eight Belles. She has the earnings, the demonstrated speed and an unbeaten record for '08. Rags to Riches did not run against males prior to her entering the Belmont. She had only run 1-1/8 miles, stretching to 1-1/2 miles for the Belmont. Pretty much like Eight Belles stretching from only 1-1/16 to 1-1/4 miles. Larry Jones is a great judge of horse flesh, and I think he strongly believes that she can run the 1-1/4 miles. She's proven she has enough tactical speed to get out of trouble at the start, can then rate/relax and kick it in at the top of the stretch. And, most importantly, she has really demonstrated a will to win. I hate to see another horse knocked out of the Derby if she draws a bad post and doesn't run, but there are a lot of others who would do the same thing under similar conditions. She deserves a chance and I think lady luck is sitting on her shoulder. She will draw a good post and run.

Jones is an idiot if he doesn't realize that his most talented filly is not Eight Belles!

cdpot: Don't completely disagree re: proud spell; she might very well be better than eight belles. If she were to run, I'd strongly consider her. But that just reiterates my point. Up to date, few 3yo's have run fast. The ones that have all have obvious knocks: BB - foundation, feet issues; Pyro - terrible final prep, needs good trip. Which leads me to think that this would be a perfect year for an upset by a filly. In the breeders cup, proud spell ran faster than all but 2 colts. In Louisiana, proud spell ran faster than pyro, 1 of those 2 colts. Granted, race pace was a factor. But I just don't think the colts are that strong (yet). If Country Star, Proud Spell, and Eight Belles were all running in the derby, I'd be surprised if one of them didn't hit at least the super. The reason I'm talking about EB and not PS is that it appears EB is more likely to run.
As for Jones, he has never stated, to my knowledge, that EB is the better filly. And the final decision on running in the derby belongs to the owners, not jones.

If you use Rag numbers or BRISnet speed figs, the Fantasy Stakes was in the top four fastest preps run. Goooooo Eight Belles! On BRIS prime Power she's competitive with everyone besides Big Brown.

Oh, I'll gladly take a "pride" position of Eight Belles against any horse not named Big Brown or Colonel John. Anybody want to suggest a horse vs. horse?

BTW - I worked up a pace analysis of this field, and if you are contemplating taking 3/1 on Big Brown or 5/1 on Colonel John, take Big Brown. His numbers are very close to Hard Spun's 2007 numbers, but faster, and his competition is weaker than HS's competition. Colonel John numbers are slow, but most likely part of that is related to adaptig to polytrack.

Why not? I tell yopu why not....... COL John thats why!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have seen this time and time again. Horses pushed beyond when they should be. They can be forced to run to their death as I have seen many times before. If it is not a heart issue that would have been caught in the numerous routine physicals, I would imagine her ankles were bruised or week from the races prior or practice. May God Bless Eight Belles as I saw this happen to my own mare but I pulled her from the old owners after she collapsed by running her heart out. She lived and is with us today if only I could of done this for Eight Belles. There are a few mares/horse very few who will not fight back no matter how much they are hurting. She was one that would die for her owner and she did. She was on in a million to have been like this to not fight back and a very special mare. This is a long race and now to continue the abuse in the name of greed even knowing full well Big Browns feet are bad the owners press on to the Preakness in just two weeks. Barbaro was not ready to run again. He was injured going into the derby. We took that hard because Dr. G_ _ _ _ _ make prosthetics for horses and could of amputated. He operated on and saved Seattle slew and my mare filly runner. This sport is mean and cruel and for those hundreds of horses who are bread to run and never even make it pass Los Alamitos or those who run even in the derby are never heard from again. I do not need to tell anyone where these horses end up. Especially now the warmbloods are the choice of the hunter jumpers. I hope the owners have a chance to read this as do Eight Belles trainer. You know it and I know it. Training for over 20 years would how could you of missed this? ENJOY YOUR SECOND PLACE EARNINGS . Besides these horses are all insured for their deaths. There is still money to collect from the insurance even when dead. We love your heart Eight Belles we love your spirit and I am so sorry this world is cruel.

Prosthetics for Horse Limbs
by: Kimberly S. Brown, Editor
July 01 2006, Article # 7129
Two veterinarians experienced in equine amputation and prosthetics are Ric Redden, DVM, from Versailles, Ky., and Barrie Grant, DVM, MS, Dipl. ACVS, a surgeon at the San Luis Rey Equine Hospital in California. They participated in a question and answer interview that can be found on the web at www.TheHorse.com/emag.aspx?id=6994. Included in the article is the following: Q. If Barbaro loses circulation to his lower leg, is amputation an option?Redden: Yes, amputation is a viable option

Dr. Grant is a Miracle Performer as he performed one on my mare.He does this from the heart and is a gift from God. Please do our horses justice and use your networking media abilities to get the word out about Dr. Grant. It is vital and I think people just don't know or do owners or trainers.