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Missing Louisville

posted by Dan Shapiro on April 28, 2008 Tags: , , , , , ,
Cool Coal Man (Photo by: Coglianese Photos)Cool Coal Man (Photo by: Coglianese Photos)

So it's the Monday of Derby Week and I'm out here in desert, some 1,800 miles away from the action and energy of the Churchill Downs backstretch. Although I'm not complaining, Las Vegas doesn't quite have the appeal of Louisville this week.

A year ago, I was staying at the luxurious Red Roof Inn, enjoying fine dining at the Waffle House and waking up at 4:30 a.m. to watch workouts. Last night, I stuffed myself silly at the Wynn Las Vegas buffet (I recommend the shrimp cocktail) and caught beers at the Palms. This morning, I was imagining myself on backstretch, coffee in hand, breathing the fresh Kentucky air and mingling with trainers and owners in front of the Twin Spires.

This year, I will be relying heavily on the insights of the bloggers and reporters who are on track this week to see the Derby horses in flesh. Although I do most of my handicapping based on speed figures and pedigree, I can't overstate the importance seeing how the 3-year-olds look and how they handle the Churchill track and the whole Derby madness.

Last year, Street Sense was a standout. Anyone who saw him train at Churchill before the Derby knew he was about the run the race of his life. Anyone who spent any time around trainer Carl Nafzger could feel the confidence oozing. Hard Spun and Curlin also looked spectacular and ran to their looks.

Even though I have put the filly, Eight Belles, on the top of my list right now (Yes, I know. I must have several screws loose), I reserve the right to change my mind based the reports coming out of Louisville and any sort of mental epiphany this week. The more I think about it and the more quotes I read from Rick Dutrow Jr., I think Big Brown will be super tough to beat. Z Fortune and Gayego are both interesting.

Even though I've lost confidence in his chances, I will be rooting hard for Cool Coal Man. I hold Vegas future book tickets on him at 35-1 and 75-1. His final post time odds will likely be somewhere in the middle of that range. Also, I guess I will have to root for Anak Nakal. In my dresser drawer is Justin Dew's future ticket, which I believe is worth a cool $10,200 bucks if somehow that animal decides to wake up and run for real on Saturday. Justin - we agreed on a 25% commission if he wins, right?

Also, to anyone who will be in the Reno, Nevada area this weekend, I will be part of a Derby handicapping seminar at the Grand Sierra Resort on Friday night. The show starts at 6 p.m. in the Showroom. It ain't quite Louisville, but it should be lots of fun.

Happy Derby Week!

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Cdpotato4

04/28/2008 1:35 pm

Dan,

I hear you. I will also be rooting for Anak Nakal as I played him at the Wynn in late January at $50 at 50-1 to win $2,550. I wish I could sell that bet for half the price and throw it right back on him on Saturday. I wouldn't be suprised if he went off at over 100-1.

janejumbomargarita

04/28/2008 2:04 pm

Anak Nakal's daddy put in the most exciting run at Belmont ever. I had watched him nearly win the Derby and then the Preakness, but in New York he put it all together to make Bob Baffert have a really disappointing day. When my son was three and a half years old I took him to visit Victory Gallop in Lexington, and I told my son that someday one of Victory Gallop's babies would win the Derby! Is this the year? We will see. But at least one of Victory Gallop's own will be in the thick of the action the first Saturday in May just like his daddy before him.

patbateman

04/28/2008 4:09 pm

Dan, yeah I'm not going to be at the Derby or the seminar, I'm going to have to watch it on TV, but it will be great. I like your top ten, put Eight Belles on the bottom and I'm in complete agreement with your top 6. She did look good today and I'll have to give her a closer look this week. But I don't know about her for the win, her longest prep is a mile and a 16th, right? If it were a colt that would bother me and it bothers me for her as well. Does anyone else worry that despite what everyone says Court Vision won't get the distance? Dutrow knows a good horse when he sees one, by now. Asmussen doesn't sound too confident, but he is not really a braggart, so its hard to read his feelings prior to the race. I'd really almost rather have the frankness of Dutrow even though it can be abrasive. Does anyone play something like a 50 dollar straight super on their final prediction? I think I will this year, but it still might not pay that well if it hits because its going to be even chalkier than last year I think.

TheCapper

04/28/2008 8:29 pm

I'm loving all the horses you mentioned... this is going to be a great derby.

I wish I was in Louisville this year for the derby, so much fun!

For this year's picks I'm using:

http://www.winningponies.com/results/picks/tips/Kentucky-Derby-2007.html

Cdpotato4

04/28/2008 10:14 pm

At Churchill tomorrow, I think there is an interesting long shot in the 7th, MC50k.

I think the 5, Righteous Tiger, is worth a play at 15-1 ML. John Fahey is winning at 19% clip in 3rd off the layoff. As most of you know, I absolutely love the polytrack to Churchill angle. Street Sense? Hard Spun? On top of that he is going down in distance and carrying 7 lbs less than some others. I think if the 5 gets out to an uncontested lead he could wire this field and I think I'll take the chance that the lead is uncontested and play him.

silvercharm68

04/30/2008 12:07 pm

Dan -
Better breakfast platter: The All-Star Special at Waffle House or the Grand Slam at Denny's?

Personally, my favorite Waffle House meal is a sweet cream double waffle with side of smothered hash browns.