Derby picks and wagering strategy

Call me crazy, but I'm picking a filly to win the Kentucky Derby.

I've been looking for reasons to toss Eight Belles all week, but I truly believe she has the talent to become the fourth filly in history to win the Derby. Sure, Eight Belles has many question marks, including how she'll handle the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance in a 20-horse field and the fact she's never faced the boys before. But after reviewing all her races this year and looking at the speed figures, I think she's has a legitimate shot to win and a great shot to land in the superfecta. At 15- or 20-1, I'm taking a shot that she can become first winning filly since Winning Colors in 1988.

Big Brown may prove to be a superstar and every report I've heard from Churchill tells me he looks awesome. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win by five lengths, but in the Derby you're supposed to play against the favorite, especially when he breaks from the 20 post in just his fourth career start.

Here are my top four and a suggested play for $50 keying Eight Belles. Good luck to all!

1 - Eight Belles (#5) – Super fast and talented filly fits right in with the best of the boys. She comes off four straight wins and has the size, speed figures and class to pull off the upset.

2 - Big Brown (#20) – Strictly the horse to beat. Dominated his competition in three career starts with long, fluid strides and has been training like a tiger for ultra-confident connections. Could be simply better than these, but from the 20 post he’s no sure thing.

3 - Colonel John (#10) – The Santa Anita Derby winner has a powerful finishing kick, but his final times have been average and he’s raced exclusively over synthetic surfaces.

4 - Court Vision (#4) – Has been underachieving in recent starts, but won a big one last year at Churchill. Retains the services of Garret Gomez and should be flying from off the pace.

Live longshot: Cool Coal Man (#1) – Toss out his last race on the quirky Polytrack at Keeneland and he’s a legitimate contender who loves Churchill.

The bets:

$10 win & place 5 = $20

$8 exacta 20 / 5 = $8

$4 exacta 4-10 / 5 = $8

$2 exacta 1 with 5 = $2

$1 trifecta 1-4-10-20 / 1-4-10-20 / 5 = $12

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ChrisBryanofDallas

05/05/2008 10:07 pm

Dear Dan, I was thinking on betting that Eight Belles might either win first or in the money, but I didn't know how to get into the online betting nor did i think I had enough to place minimal bet, but with the results of this horse's tragic death, I think that any winnings wouldn't of been worth it. But, I was wondering if someone could examine the tapes of the filly's run in the race and see if the jockey put the breaks on too suddenly after the race was through and if that might be one of the causes of the breakage. That instead of letting the filly slow down to a stop gradually, he might have pulled up on the reins rather suddenly as if trying to rein in a quarter horse in a barrel race and maybe too much of the horse's weight went onto those front legs a little too soon with the sudden stop after all of that speed. Physics and at that age, a horse's legs aren't able to handle something an eight-year-old might be able to take. I want to tell the trainer and owner and so forth how sorry I am for their loss. It is sad to see the granddaughter of Unbridled have her life cut short in this manner. But, I don't know if you'll see this or not, but from the little bit I've been able to see through clips on the news and all, it just makes me wonder if there might be a jockey mistake in there of trying to pull up on the reins suddenly to stop the horse after the race was over. I may be new to being at this online website, but I've been in love with horses ever since I can remember and I've watched the Kentucky Derby either every year or almost every year ever since Secretariat or before then and I was just a child then. They're chalking this up to 'trashy breeding' and I'm having a hard time believing that a filly with Unbridled and Northern Dancer in her bloodlines is a result of 'trashy breeding'. But, I do know that they almost never stop a horse suddenly after a race like this one. I've watched enough horse races on T.V. to know what is normal to see and not normal to see as far as how the jockeys handle the horses during and after a race. Thsi is just a thought of something for someone to have checked out. I don't think that the jockey needs to blacklisted. Perhaps he's too new to the sport to know better, but can learn from his mistakes, if he indeed made a mistake. Such is possible you know.

CodyPomeray

05/09/2008 4:35 pm

Dan, tell me you are blogging for the preakness. If anyone other than me took dan's betting advice it returned big. thanks again ( i posted on one of the other strings earlier.) What is your website? What are you preakness picks???