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Time doesn't mean anything unless you're in jail

posted by Jill Byrne on January 14, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Indian Blessing Speedy at Santa Anita (photo by: Benoit)Indian Blessing Speedy at Santa Anita (photo by: Benoit)

With two Kentucky Derby preps completed and in the history books it will show a very large difference in final times. The 1 mile Lecomte at the Fairgrounds was won by Z Fortune with a final time of 1.37.3 . The 1 mile San Rafael at Santa Anita was won by El Gato Malo in a final time of a then track record 1.33.1. The Fairgrounds races on traditional dirt while Santa Anita has the recently installed and reinstalled cushion track, which it appears as though they forgot to put the rest of the cushion back on the track but that's another issue.

So much is made of final times when push comes to shove in analyzing and handicapping races . Remember how much was made of the slow fractions and final time of the Blue Grass Stakes won by Dominican last year ? Street Sense would of course finish second there and then go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Traditionally the Wood Memorial is usually run over a very quick surface leading to a huge final number.

So I find myself now almost disregarding fractions and final times when it comes to these important preps and focusing more on the actual visual running of the race. Especially with so many different surfaces coming into play now , there is no consistency in tracks throughout the country much less each individual track which changes from day to day as well. Would you still be comfortable handicapping for the Kentucky Derby if you had no fractions or final times to go by from all the prep races ?

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eaoa89

01/22/2008 5:46 pm

Jill-

Am I going crazy? When I was looking at Brisnet's Past Performances, I'd picked out a couple of horses as contenders (I thought) Allaazo (trainer Bill Mott) and Bordeaux Bandit (Zito) but when I went back today they were gone.

Also, when I went into DRF to set up a horse watch for Etched, there were 2 Etched listed, one a colt, and one a gelding born 2 or 3 days apart. Is this possible?

Last but not least, does the fact that Pyro, despite running well each race, has only won once? (When looking at futures, that seems to make him a "throw-out"

Thanks for all your help

Steve T

sripa1212

01/28/2008 1:37 pm

Jill -
I think you have a keen eye for horses. Although racing is not a beauty contest (Xtra Heat, Real QUiet, Skip Away...), take a look at a 3 yr old son of Street Cry, Tomcito, currently stabled at Palm meadows if you go around there....

He is majestic, though not the best bone conformation, he loks beautiful, plus he has won 2 Grade I in South America as a 2 year old racing against southern hemisphere 3 year olds....one at 1 mile and a quarter and the other at a mile and a half...

If you gotta a chance check it out and let me know...currently the owners are considering the FL derby or the UAE derby in Dubai..or mabe a quick turn around with the holly bull stakes and then teh derby...any thoughts?

S.

jill

01/28/2008 5:23 pm

I love Street Cry as a sire and have seen overall that he makes a very nice looking individual. If I get down to Palm Meadows I will certainly do mu best to check him out. I know there are exceptions to the rule, but to me in general good horses always have that special look about them.

jill

01/28/2008 5:26 pm

Steve,
You may be finding that Etched is the name of a horse maybe bred in another country and has the same name........check the breeding line and the Etched that you want for this year is by Forestry out of Unbridled Elaine. As far as Pyro goes, I agree seconditis is not always a good sign but I am hoping that he matures and catches up to his pedigree and can make a big move forward as a three year old . But he needs to do it fairly soon and with style to stay at the top of my list for sure.

Calvin Carter

01/30/2008 11:17 am

sripa1212,

I heard about Tomcito last fall but did not know he was back in the U.S. until last week. Do you know who his owners are and who is the trainer?

Is there any word yet on whether Tomcito will run in the Florida Derby and will that be his only prep for the Kentucky Derby?

oppros

03/15/2008 11:42 pm

Jill,

I notice you weren't impressed by El Gato Malo's track record time in the San Rafael. That's OK, the track was superfast for awhile (several track records and at least one world record in Jan/Feb). But I wonder how you moved Sierra Sunset up so far (7th) after his win at Oaklawn after finishing a distant fourth to El Gato Malo in the San Rafael? EGM's only mis-step so far is a half length second to Colonel John in the Sham when boxed-in and you've got EGM 11th and Colonel John 9th. If, as you said, it's the way the horse looked during the race I think you need glasses.

Glen