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Fountain of Youth field is on course to reveal contenders and pretenders

posted by Jill Byrne on February 19, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Anak Nakal (photo by: Reed Palmer/CDI)Anak Nakal (photo by: Reed Palmer/CDI)

So far this year the Derby preps have been fairly formful.  Pyro was supposed to win the Risen Star, Crown of Thorns was supposed to win the Robert Lewis stakes, Denis of Cork made absolute sense in the Southwest.  Fierce Wind was logical in the Sam Davis, and Georgie Boy, already the Grade One winner of the Del Mar Futurity, wasn't a big shock in the San Vicente.

So now we are getting into the real meat and potatos of the Derby prep races with the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park this weekend. Court Vision is set to make his 2008 debut for trainer Bill Mott, who has seen two of his prospects, Z Humor and Riley Tucker, fall to defeat already. But seriously, did anyone out there truly think these were two top Derby horses?  Not so much. Court Vision has his knockers out there due to a slow Remsen win and a low speed figure to go with it.  Fair enough.  He has to step up and show he is a true contender and not a pretender with a big effort on Sunday.

Anak Nakal didn't exactly earn a huge number in his close victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club over Blackberry Road, who hasn't broken through this year. Monba has to show he is not just going to plod along and pick up the pieces late either.  These three were very nice colts as juveniles, and I hope they can come back stronger at three.

Some of the other probables are interesting as they enter the FOY field off big wins with subsequent big numbers in allowance races i.e.: Elysium Fields, Make The Point, Kentucky Bear, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes(2nd) and maybe Face The Cat and Adriano.  We see the quick rise and then the fall of so many of the flashy maiden and allowance winners time and time again.  So will it be one of these newcomers with some eye popping figures to break through with a big performance this weekend?  Or will the proven juvenile stakes performers with the not so fancy figures step it up a notch?

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patbateman

02/19/2008 7:09 pm

Jill,

Did you see the video of Adriano's last race? I have not seen it but everything I read sounds similar to the Crown of Thorns maiden breaker. Maybe he could be the big new face on the scene with most of the big names coming off a long layoff and perhaps not set for their best run...

jill

02/19/2008 10:16 pm

he is a talented colt with a wonderful pedigree and the connections to be handled well. I am really looking forward to seeing this group in the FOY , I think there are some real stars in the making in there.

mike barker

02/19/2008 10:49 pm

Jill try and keep me posted on Tomcito, i would love to know where hes going...he worked today at Palm Meadows in 46...Cant wait for the Fountain of Youth seems like theres some big guns going in there..

DerbyFan78

02/19/2008 11:26 pm

Mike - I agree and think he's going to be something special, if they keep him in the US. Also, I read that he could go in the FOY as well. Although, I am not sure he's nominated. Let's hope he is, does, and runs them off their feet!

DerbyFan78

02/19/2008 11:32 pm

Okay, I just checked the nominations for the FOY and he is nominated. So, I am crossing my fingers on this one and hope he runs. I am calling it right now, if he runs - he wins going away.

mike barker

02/20/2008 10:26 am

I love his running style check out some of his races on youtube.

mike barker

02/20/2008 10:27 am

I heard Countess Diana is headed to the Oaks and Jills getting the mount :)

jill

02/20/2008 11:27 am

Well Mike, if they run the Oaks in heaven Countess Diana gets my vote, rest her soul, what a fabulous filly she was.
As for Tomcito , I am anxiously awaiting his return to the races as well. I have not heard mention of the FOY for him, perhaps he will enter in the same race that War Pass is pointing for.

Cdpotato4

02/20/2008 1:14 pm

Anak Nakal wins this one. He will only get better as he stretches out. He is the only option for Derby day thus far.

beebs4201

02/20/2008 2:27 pm

I haven't really decided who I am going to take yet in the FOY. I am going to have to see the draw before I come to any conclusions. This is going to be by far the most competitvie derby prep race we have had so far this year. I like a couple of up-and-comers (Make the Point, Face the Cat) but this may be too difficult a spot for them to get their first stakes victories.

jill

02/20/2008 2:48 pm

I like both the pedigrees of Anak Nakal and Court Vision to do well at three too.

DerbyFan78

02/20/2008 9:15 pm

Mike - Agreed. His wins last year as a 2YO going 10 and 12 furlongs against 3YO's were very impressive. Not to mention, Prado has the mount when he runs. He could, indeed, be the monster this year.

romccann

02/20/2008 11:05 pm

Out of the three likely favored to hit the board (Anak Nakal, Court Vision and Monba), I'm thinking Court Vision. Maybe his numbers haven't impressed, but he looked fine to me after rewatching the Remsen. He didn't get flustered, took control at the end and had a nice burst to finish off Atoned. Garret Gomez helps.

Elysium Fields has improved steadily, bulleted his last work at GP and has Tagg. Plus Eibar Coa had the mount on Cool Coal Man and wants EF instead. Good enough for me. Kentucky Bear was going to be my longshot but I think it might be asking too much with only one race under him. Also, he may not even run.

Court Vision and Elyium Fields 1-2. And yes, upon writing that last sentence, I almost immediately regret writing off Pletcher.

sripa1212

02/21/2008 10:44 pm

Hello crowd...

I have all the updates you need on Tomcito, as my first cousin owns the horse, stud Jet set from Peru. I am actually writing to you all from Peru. He worked beautifully in 46, next week he will work a mile...he will go easy first anc close the last 2 furlongs...he is tight now and the mile work will build on his bottom and stamina...

The FOY came too close...we will decide in the next 10-14 days his future...two difinite options:
1. UAE Derby in Dubai, march 29. If he does well and we still have him (some arab sheik may make an offer we cant refuse) then the Belmont will be next..
2. ONE race prior to the KY Derby, either the FL derby or the Holly Bull on April 12 as it is 1 3/16 which is longer an better for him...

He is doing super nice, stable 39 at palm meadows...Prado has worked him and he is high on him...

In the next week or so we will see if we get the invite to Dubai, and then the decision will be made...I will post as soon as it is made...in the mean time feel free to blog any questions...and jill I look forward to your keen eye when you see him..
best to all
Sergio Ripamonti

DrMax944

02/22/2008 12:26 am

The sneaky good horse who will jump-up and win the FOY is ADRIANO. Last year Graham Motion confidently stated that ADRIANO is the best horse in his stable this year. If this is so, then I am sure he has given this colt his time, focus, and best effort. And if Mr. Motion believes ADRIANO is good and fit to run in the FOY, then that's good enough for me. Excuse me, I am off to place my WPS on ADRIANO...Anybody care to join me? No? Good,,,that will make his odds even better! - Dr. Max

jill

02/22/2008 10:09 am

Sergio,
Thanks for the update on Tomcito and best of luck to all involved. I personally hope he stays here and does not go to Dubai, but it is big bucks in more ways then one. I look forward to getting a chance to see him in the flesh.

mike barker

02/22/2008 2:42 pm

Hope he doesnt go to Dubai if he does hes doomed..

merasmag

02/24/2008 12:15 am

wow...people who kinda sorta know what they may be talking about...i invite you all to check out horseracingtalk.net and get in on the 24/7 action (well...more like 6-10est) over there...we could use u all....especially the tomcito guy and, ms. byrne, if u would bring matt carrothers that would be great!!!

GO COURT VISION!!!!!!!!

jill

02/24/2008 6:51 pm

Court Vision ran a heck of a race considering he was way behind slow fractions then forced to go wide and close on a track that rarely favors closers no matter what the pace. Love the winner Cool Coal Man though, pedigree plus running style ,and runner up Elysium Fields. All three of these proved they are contenders not pretenders. And of course War Pass put on a public display and looked good doing it.

barryrmitchell

02/26/2008 2:54 am

Jill, I believe if you race the same three horse again and again, you will get a different result each race.

I still like Court Vision for all the money next time. I hoping 6-1 to 8-1 odds.

I AM HOPING.

FASTLANE

02/26/2008 9:54 pm

Jill, why El Gato Malo before Denis of Cork? I think Denis of Cork has proved his "fight" better and is bred better for the derby. I think El Gato Malo may face some challenges with a not so speed friendly track. I'll be at the Sham on sat. so we'll see who looks good there. Santa Anita doesn't seem to be as speed favorite now as his previous two races.

Also, can you get John Asher to update his top 10? :) Crown of thorns has been out for a week. He was my cali horse so I was disappointed about his injury. By the way, thank you for your commentary on TVG. It is getting rare to find helpful info. on there anymore and if you and Christina Olivares left it would be tough to watch.

OK, let's see Tale of Ekati. He has to be top five if he runs well next out??? We're running out of horses to throw at the two(Pyro and War Pass). Also, I'd love to hear your thoughts on Tomcito. Thanks.

Lane

jill

02/27/2008 11:31 am

Hi Lane,
Basically I am having a very hard time finding any 3 year olds worthy of the spots past the first 10 period at this time. I think Denis Of Cork has the pedigree , now he has to prove that he doesn't need blistering fractions to be the only one who plods along home. As for El Gato Malo, not crazy about his derby pedigree either and fully believe that he will struggle when he faces some real competition and things don't set up just perfectly. As you know in most of these California races they never seem more than 5 -6 other horses in a race. I'm kind of hoping Colonel John can show something this weekend. I also look forward to how Yankee bravo does in his next start. I am sad to see that Into Mischief is now having issues, I still like that horse, but if he loses any more time...he is in big trouble. Tale Of Ekati is a nice colt and I am looking forward to his 3 year old debut, tough spot however in the Louisiana Derby.

FASTLANE

02/27/2008 1:55 pm

I hadn't heard about Into Mischief. That is a disappointment for trainer and owner to lose two legit contenders. I think Colonel John has a good chance of handing El Gato Malo his first defeat in the Sham if he runs well fresh. You make a great ponit about the small fields in the California prep races. I didn't feel we had much of a chance this year at seeing a California horse winning the Derby. I think the Lousiana Derby will be an awesome race to see and help shed some light on the true contenders. The Rebel and Florida Derby will keep the whole month full of good racing. Thank you for your response.

barbeach

03/03/2008 2:28 pm

Jill,
Wondering what your opinions are about J Be K and Yankee Bravo? I like them both a lot especially J Be K, you think he can wire the LA Derby? I am concerned about his speed lasting 1 1/16 but it seems like everyone starts with sprints then stretches, he just get his chance a little later than usual. Hope to hear what you have to say.

(When's the next blog entry???)