March Madness to Derby Fever and who goes to the big dance

Elysium Fields still isn't in, and if he draws wide again in the FL Derby, he could be in trouble. Yankee Bravo will have 1 more start and probably needs to hit the board in the Santa Anita which might mean beating one of Georgie Boy/Shediak, El Gato Malo, or Colonel John. Medjool, maybe this year's Giacamo needs $ and more ground.

Todd Pletcher is on the bubble to get a single starter.

I believe Majestic Warrior may need a few bucks. But as you pointed out, the Florida Derby and its' all or nothing proposition seems to be the most entriguing with a whole lot of "buzz" horses with no earnings pointing there and needing a top 2 finish. Remember when Rock Hard Ten got DQ'd out of the Derby? Back before the Oaklaw races were graded, Smarty Jones had to win the Arkansas Derby, imagine if he wouldn't have gotten in. Probably would have been HOY over St. Liam the next year I imagine... Anyway, let's hope Elysium Fields proves he's good enough, and that Face the Cat, Fierce Wind, Hey Byrn, and Big Brown don't all hit the wire noses apart with 2 getting in and 2 staying home.

Jill,
When I hear of Monba's injury, as mild as it may be and I'm sure there is a lot of variation with that sort of thing, but it instantly reminds me of The Green Monkey, and it is clearly a crutch that Pletcher can lean on as his Derby hand is a little bit light for him this time around. I am completely tossing Monba from consideration and I can't believe he got so much support in the 2nd future wager, but hey its a free country, right?

I like to think that some of the horses with the earnings but not the talent to compete would choose not to run in Louisville, and that dead heat in Delta pretty much pops the bubble on some good horse, potentially. Here's hoping Z Fortune can overcome the post and the extra weight and match his stablemate or better in the Beyer department tomorrow. I like Sierra Sunset too, and I would like to see that horse in the Derby. I feel bad for Texas Wildcatter and I like Monarchos, but that was a very weak finish. After watching front running Stormello wear himself out on the derby trail last year, I like Zito's approach to War Pass, as it may take longer to recover from a frontrunning route race than if the horse had another style. He may have to peak on Derby day to win, but I am looking forward to seeing if he truly is a freak. I still think Reflect Times might grab a spot in the race with a good performance in the SA Derby, he could still improve with more distance.

Tomcito???

Picking up on patbateman's comment (Huey Lewis fan, right?), I agree that Sierra Sunset is a nice horse for the Derby. Would like to see him win but I think Z Fortune will throw too much at him late. His second in the Risen Star, two lengths of Pyro, looks real solid now that we've seen Pyro and Visionaire again. I'm thinking Sacred Journey will deliver on his promise under Borel. He'll need to not come out as hot as he did last time out. Even if he does he may still have enough over the rest of this field to show.

As for Anak Nakal, maybe he needs one more race...or maybe he delivers, we'll see. That last race did not impress and he no longer has a layoff excuse. I'm not drinking any of the King Silver kool-aid and Golden Yank's coming off a loooong layoff without much to impress in his works.

Z Fortune what a bummer, I had horse #4 in the final leg of the Sanat Anita pick four today and lost by a neck, what a bad day. I guess this year's derby should be a great betting race.

Jill...

I am so disappointed you did not even throw Tomcito's name in your articles when talking about the FL derby....especially since I know you wanted to see him stay in the US...Maybe you should add an ammendment....Tomcito has been nominated to the FL Derby and we will run him there barring any setback in health (we are not like the war pass camp hiding info from the fan about a "fever")...However, I will tell you the horse will get there 80-90 % tops...We need a top 4 finish to have enough earnings...if we manage that after a 4 month layoff and at 80%, we will be 100% 5 weeks later at the Derby...

Wish us luck...or if you want any home story on the horse or the family...feel free to contact me....sripa1212@hotmail.com

best to you and to all...

Sripa,

I've been wondering whether Tomcito's graded earnings from Peru count toward quallifying. By my estimation, he should have somewhere in the range of $55-66K which would place you somewhere around 31-38 (just behind Elysium Fields) on the earnings list according to thedowneyprofile.com . Some of the contenders are not really pointing for the derby (Country Star for one).

Here's the payment breakdown of the $1 million Florida Derby purse: "The owner of the winner to receive $600,000, $200,000 to second, $100,000 to third, $50,000 to fourth, $30,000 to fifth and $20,000 to sixth."

As of now, if a horse with $0 in graded earnings finished 2nd, he would be ranked 15th ahead of Big Truck, and behind Massive Drama. A third would tie them with Atoned at 27 which leads into the next issue, many of the horses will run again, where the Florida Derby runners are putting all their eggs in one basket (maybe Lexington). $100K will not get you in the starting gate this year, especially now that War Pass has a chink in the armor.

Here's the link for graded earnings: http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings

I've crossed off 3 of the top 20 as not likely pointed for the derby, but you can cross out who you don't think will run. I put the cutoff between Blackberry Road and My Pal Charlie, who will both have 1 more race. This leaves a lot of well regarded horses with a lot of work to do. If a horse has $0, besides the top 20, he has to leap frog Monba, Etched, Elysium Fields, Texas Wildcatter, King's Silver Son, and Gayego among other well regarded horses with a headstart.

If I had a contender at Gulfstream, I'd scratch out of the race if I drew wider than post 5, and scratch if the race contained more than 3 or more of the following: Big Brown, Tomcito, Elysium Fields, or Court Vision. I would instead point to A) Arkansas Derby and take my chances with Isabull, B) Try the Illinois Derby against Cal-invaders trying dirt for the first time, C) Wook Memorial hoping War Pass can't rebound, D) Blue Grass against Visionaire, CCM, Cowboy Cal, and oh yeah, Pyro. I like choice A). If I had Elysium Fields, I'd cross enter in the mile NW1 allowance in race 1 the same day, or the Palm Beach on grass at 9f.

Derbyme...

Thanks for the post. We have reviewed with my family the historical cut offs for derby earnings...150K makes it 90% plus of the time, 120K makes it 75 to 80% of the time...100K is the bubble...we have 64K (from graded wins in peru...i dont know how they will adjust for US dollar deflation), so we gather that a 4th palce finish will put us around 114K...wich should be enough, of course a third or better will definitely do it...

Like I said, teh horse will be 80% or so derby day...we hope taht will be enough to secure a spot, if it is then derby day he will be 100%...

we will know in 13 days...

sripa - Just wanted to drop a note of thanks for the updates on Tomcito! I have to say that I am pretty excited to read that Tomcito is headed for the Florida Derby; I have been hoping to see this horse run in the U.S. ever since I came across his name last fall, along with Casino Drive, who unfortunately got too late a start to make it for the Derby, as I was really hoping for an international exacta this year! In any case, good luck with him!

As for other bubbles that I hope make the gate, I'm hoping for Elysium Fields and (though I have no idea if he has enough graded earnings to count as being on the bubble or even if the connections are pointing him this way) Autism Awareness, who may have run the best race of his life in the El Camino Real, never to show up again. . . but I sure liked the way he did it.

Hi Jill...

Both Edgar and Chavez have worked him...and we think Chavez fits him better as he is more energic when riding...(both my cousins, myself and his trainer thought best of keeping the Peru connection)...

Ill be at palm meadows tomorrow 6.30am for his work, he will breeze 5f...in case you are around...barn 39.

best to all..

Good luck with Tomcito, sripa. It would be something to see Street Cry go back to back, eh?

Why don't some of the Florida Derby hopefuls run in the Arkansas Derby instead and that way they could all get into the big Derby? I think some invaders could do some damage in Hot Springs. Sierra Sunset looked good, but I'm not buying the Golden Gate to Arkansas to Lousville route for a Kentucky Derby winner this year. Court Vision and Big Brown are both IEAH horses, right? Shouldn't they be split up?

Horse name Tomcito
Notes derby trail
Activity type Workout
Activity date 03-17-2008
Track Gulfstream Park
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 Furlongs
Workout type Handily
Workout time 0:58.80
Track condition Fast

Jill,

Thank you. Been saying that for weeks. Your Round scared everyone away. In all seriousness, he made a heck of a move in the Battaglia. At this point, my pick would be Adriano to rebound a giant price, but Turfway is a little crazy. I don't bet the track that much and don't know if turf form holds there like it does at other synth tracks. Wide open for lots of dough, and any of 7 Fl. Derby candidates would be legit faves in this race.

Jill...

the redirection you speak of in your last post would only apply if you think that teh FL derby is coming up strong...is it really? Elysium fields, court vision, fierce wind (?) Really how strong is it...Oh wait ..Tomcito...then yes, the rest should point to turfway...

Just as a note, we worked Tomcito at Guflstream this am...he came back cold from the work, barely breathing heavy...he is rounding up beautifully. We schooled in the 5th race paddock area...he was wound up ready to go...

Things are looking up on the Tomcito bandwagon...

The guy who hit the record 3 million dollar pick six at Santa Anita singled Medjool, the son of Monarchos who won that day and who may be looking for something easier than the Santa Anita Derby. He looks good, and you have to think that eventually a good looking Monarchos horse is going to do someting special.

Tomcito isn't the only newcomer on the scene in the Fla. Derby sripa. I know you are partial, but what about Big Brown, and Hey Byrn. And Elysium, Cool Coal, and Court Vision are not to be taken lightly. On paper this race is the best thus far by a long shot. Although the Santa Anita and the Wood are looking to be building strong fields.

phil...

I think cool coal man is going somewhere alse, at least thats what Zito said last week...Hey Vyrn still has class issue to proove, Big brown beat 5 wanna be runners that actually are better turfers...so really aside form elysium fields and court vision...nobody has really shown much else...

I am not saying they will not but at tleat the field does not have grade I winners or proven graded winners in it...

Loads of potential....but thats what is has potential contenders not proven graded winners...

Nice marketing publish work Sripe, Now I am more sure about Tomcito as a loser, so until Tomcito beats anything with caliber numbers. He's not in my top 20 colts.

Hopefully you can respect my opinion, that why we are here to blog. Is the horse 80% ready for what distance. Why are you talking 4th place graded earnings?

What instructions do you give the jockey, if the horse is only 80% ready, don't push him to hard first time back? You sound like a preparation for defeat which is inevitable.

March and April is not the time to play around with race tactic and conditioning when your wallet is not fat!. Then you bash the U.S horses who has put in the time for conditioning.

Big Brown is under the same gun, I don't read his owner stating 80%, looking for 3rd or 4th place money.

I don't read confidence in your statements. Will Tomcito win or not is the question?

Big Brown video is more impressive then Tomcito videos.

58 gate moves is not un common this time of the year. Whether the horse came back cooled. Has the horse published a mile work thus far. How are you 80% ready without a quality distance work. Let's say 1:37 and change, now you may have my interest.
1:11 and change, 1:24 and change. What do you have to offer as a solid serious of work tab.

Waiting! Please post something significant.

Derbyme, THANK YOU FOR THE GRADING EARNING LIST.

Keep up the good work.

I am thinking Elysium Fields reverses the order of finish. When a horse is passed and comes back again, more times than less, the horse was immature and is learning.

May put it all together on F-Derby day.

Court Vision may need one more start for his best. He will finish much closer.
Nick horse will run well, I just don't think he is the best talent of the field. Hard to believe the same cast will run the same race.

Even though i like Tomcito, Gulfstream is not the place for closers..

sripa,

Grade III Palm Beach Stakes nominations close tomorrow. Any chance Tomcito will cross enter in case he draws wide in the Fl. Derby? It is $150K at 9f, winners share would be more than enough, 2nd money might have you sweating, but it should come up far easier than the Fl. Derby, and if you draw outside post 5, your odds of winning aren't slashed in half.

I don't know if Tomcito can run on turf or not, but many trainers (like Doug O'Neil) prefer to come back on turf because they're usually not as hard on a horse. If your colt is truly 80%, it might be a good tightener to let him gallop and fly home the last 3/8ths. Nice prep, then 2 weeks to the Blue Grass or Holy Bull.

Court Vision is now headed to the Wood. I am very happy to hear that. A much more friendly track for his style, and should be a more predictable field.

Barry, I hope you are right about CV needing 1 more start for his best. That would, of course, mean a peak on May 3rd. I wouldn't mind a strong 2nd in the Wood, better odds for me.

Sripa, I was on the Tomcito bandwagon until your aggressive campaigning. You seem overly confident one post and modest the next... like barry, that makes me wonder. I just hope he can finish in the top 3 for your sake, to ensure a ticket to the Derby.

Barry...

I respect the fact that we can all have opinions. I can tell you that the horse will definitely win and convince you to bet the house...but I am not here to do that...plus I have yet to hear a true horsemen guarantee a victory...horse racing is done when the gates open...anything can happen...see War pass last week. I can only tell you truthfully where we stand...if you want a guarantee, there's the IRS and the cementery...take your pick.

My posts do show excitment as I have a personal interest on the horse with my family's ownership, however, i am not the kind or person that will publish hype for no reason or omit information like the war pass camp did with the fever...I tell you the truth and if that is news to the business than I stand alone...If I can tell you he will win and you bet the house and loose, then I guess a bigger loser than Tomcito would be you.

Our goal right now is KY and Belmont (hopefully it will be both)...if that means a 3rd in FL, then so be it, if he wins it that would be great too...The reality is that the horse is gonna get there 80-90%, not 100%...if you want me to say 100% for sure then I will just be exagerating the facts to you...can he win at 80-90%? I dont know, its his first race in 4 months, plus with new improved company...if he does, beware KY...

As for recent works, his late work tab reads; 46 flat, 1:42., 50 4/5, 1.00 4/5, 1:39 4/5 and 58 4/5....all at palm meadows expect the last...which is a bit heavier than gulfstream...the works were purposedly done faster or slower for a reason...

he will work monday again, probably 4f or 5f...we have not yet decided...bet him or not it does not matter to me and if many think that way, then we will all get better odds..

and thanks barry for worrying about my wallet...i appreciate your concern...

Phyl,

How did you get into the Tomcito bandwagon? based on what? on the posts I made? on the interviews Dante answers? the things we comment to the media, the you tube video posted by our friends at Peru Jockey Club...? We built it, if you jumped in, we welcome you...if you jump off is your choice....the bandwagon is still there if you want to retun on march 30th, you and everyone will always be welcome...we latins are very friendly people...

Jill,

What you say is true about the FL field vs the lands End...We needed the extra week for Tomcito no question...yet I think the FL is evenly matched without a proven superstar until now and hopefully one or maybe even 2 or 3 may emerge from there as a true contender for the KY Derby...

best to you and to all...

Barry,

100% agree.

Scripa,

You say, "i am not the kind or person that will publish hype." Then you say to Phil, "We built it (bandwagon), if you jumped in, we welcome you." Well it sure looks to me like you are hyping up your horse. There is nothing at all wrong with this, as you have investment in him.

I, as a handicapper, am a little concerned though because now excuses are coming out pre-race. You can use the excuse of not 100% if Tomcito loses so you do not seem very confident in him.

Anyway, good luck on MARCH 29TH (NOT 30TH). You may or may not need it. It will be a talented field indeed.

Possible Lane's End Entries:
Turf War, Cannonball, Chitoz, Racecar Rhapsody <--Extremely excited about his return, maybe too late though.

Sripa,

I for one, love the Tomcito updates. I wish I could get such great info on the other contenders. You have a right to be excited. I do not think you are hyping. Saying that your horse may not win is not hyping. Saying that you think he fits, but that he has to try them to find out is not hyping. Saying that you need a 4th or better to make the gate is not hyping. You have a right to be excited. I'd be excited if I had such an entriguing young colt. Maybe he fits, maybe not, you should be excited to find out. Keep the updates coming.

Barry CD and Phil, you seem like knowledgeable enough 'cappers to know that you can never listen to owners and almost never listen to trainers. Certain trainers like Bobby Frankle and Barclay Tagg are very conservative with words and when they tout one, you can bet it. Lukas, Biancone, and Dutrow, Ward tend to be more excitable. Stop hating. If B. Wayne Hughes or Maggi Moss or Michael Tabor chatted about their stars we'd all be fixated. I'll never own a derby horse, and it's fun to follow along with someone who might. Making $$ is NOT what it's all about. I think the sport has enough people in it who think so.

Cd, how about the improving Medjool? This year's Giacamo? I'll prolly give Adriano one more try also, and play with Your Round, Halo Najib, and RCR underneath. But, have to look for value. Wide open.

Derbyme,

Agree. Very wide open.

Barry, Mike and gang,

CaliBob,

Here’s the recent works of Big Brown, Elysium Fields and Tomcito.

Big Brown
03/19/2008 PMM
5F 1:00.40 Dirt Fast H
03/01/2008 PMM
5F 1:00.50 Dirt Fast H
02/24/2008 PMM
4F :48.00 Dirt Fast H
12/28/2007 PMM
6F 1:14.00 Turf Firm B
12/22/2007 PMM
6F 1:13.60 Dirt Fast H

Elysium Fields
03/18/2008 GP
6F 1:12.00 Dirt Fast H
03/12/2008 GP
5F :59.00 Dirt Fast H
03/06/2008 GP
4F :49.00 Dirt Fast B
02/18/2008 GP
5F :58.80 Dirt Fast H
02/12/2008 GP
6F 1:13.00 Dirt Fast H
02/05/2008 GP
5F :59.80 Dirt Fast H
01/30/2008 GP
4F :46.60 Dirt Fast H
01/15/2008 GP
4F :49.20 Dirt Fast B
01/08/2008 GP
4F :47.60 Dirt Fast H
12/24/2007 GP
5F 1:02.20 Dirt Fast B

Tomcito
03/17/2008 GP
5F :58.80 Dirt Fast H
03/10/2008 PMM
8F 1:39.80 Dirt Fast B
03/03/2008 PMM
5F 1:00.40 Dirt Fast H
02/26/2008 PMM
8F 1:42.60 Dirt Fast B
02/19/2008 PMM
4F :46.00 Dirt Fast H
02/10/2008 PMM
5F 1:00.80 Dirt Fast H
02/04/2008 PMM
4F :50.60 Dirt Fast B
01/27/2008 PMM
3F :36.40 Dirt Fast H

sripa1212,

Good Luck with Tomcito. I've been his fan since early January.

Good work guy's.. Sripa, you never answer the main questions, What happen concerning the discussion about Dubai. Is there an offer to buy the colts win or lose from the Sheik. Or is it gag time.

on to the F-Derby
The work tab of E-Fields looks like a horse on the improvement.
Very dangerous colt right now! The odds are exactly what I would like in a horse race.

But my money is on Big Brown. Remain undefeated and maybe unto the Bluegrass Stakes.

Hey Guy's is there a chance the K-Derby will have less than 20 in the gate this year, I see only 16 horse, but as injuries to come, "this happen every year" the reduction in starters could reduce the legitimate starters to 13-14. I don't see 6 or more to enter from the Derby List.

Also, what has happen to Etched! He was rate extremely high and with the recent lost, has fallen completely off the Derby Watch List.

Barry...

I have answered all questions and been as explicit as possible with all of them...

About your recent comments, I think your thought of Big Brown going in FL derby and then the Bluegrass is tottally wrong...two weeks rest only? and then there would only be 3 weeks to the derby...no way unless he tanks so bad that he needs the earnings, but then he probably wont do much there anyway...If he runs well he will be derby bound...if he runs bad he will stay of the trail...So your comment of FL derby then Bluegras...sound quiet ameteurish..

And actually that is pretty much for almost all FL derby entrants at this stage as only a couple already have the necessary earnings to get in the KY derby field.

Have you seen the PP's, Big brown has run twice, MSW on the turf...won. Allowane Nx1 a turf race taken off with 5 horses...and he won...has he really done anything impressive? NO...can he turn out to be a monster...YES...but he needs to prove a lot..too much for my taste to regard him so highly yet.

Th edubai issue was a consideration, but we dropped it 10 days ago when the horse was telling us he still needed more time, and although the races are run the same day, Dubai required a very long trip, new location and more acclimatization...it would have been too much...so we decided to saty in FL.

sripa,

I'm glad you stayed. Anyway, running in Dubai would tell you nothing about the horse. Better to run here and see where you fit, unless you draw post 10. People like Big Brown for the same reason they like Tomcito, visually impressive victories. Big Brown looks like a wing it on the front end type who absolutely demoralizes any horse who goes with him. Tomcito is a physical speciman that can take a hit and keep going. (How bad did he run up on heels in the Derby Nacional? Looked like jockey almost came out of strirups, but video changes angles). One might be Randy Moss, one might be Adrian Peterson. FL. Derby field seems to be coming up with a conspicuous lack of pace. Golden Spikes to Ill. Derby. Fierce Wind tractable now. Big Brown will probably be alone on the lead, and we still won't see how he handles dirt in the face or being behind a horse.

barry, Etched is working toward UAE Derby versus Numaany, Honour Devil, and Royal Vintage. I don't think anyone beats Royal Vintage, but there would be no shame in a good second or third. I expect Etched to run well and move on to Louisville where he could be a pace factor, and would be a wise guy horse. Don't like that he missed his prep though. Agree with you on EF. Got him at 80-1 a month back.

May have to use the field in the Florida Derby for Gulfstream's late pick 4.

I hope Big Brown and E Fields trashes Tomcito. By the way! it was a typo in the sentence structure.

"But my money is on Big Brown as to compare with E Fields. Remain undefeated and (OR) maybe unto the Bluegrass if does not make the Florida Derby line up!"

Transpose the word and for or, you will get it!

I was not sure if Big Brown would race in the Florida Derby, or the Bluegrass.

You're amazing.

I don't think we will hear from you after the Florida Derby. Pack your bags!

That's just my opinion.

Derby Man. I know you can see real talent especially when it staring you in the face.

derbyme
03/20/2008

1:21 pmReport Violation
Mark,

There's a buzz horse out East that could give War Pass all he wants on the front end named Big Brown, if he gets in...

Place your bet my man. Don't hesitate, Big Brown trashes Tomcito.

In fact, I don't think Tomcito will ever know he was in the same race.

He will never see Big Brown start to finish. Lol

Only his hoof prints in the sand.

"Cd, how about the improving Medjool? This year's Giacamo? I'll prolly give Adriano one more try also, and play with Your Round, Halo Najib, and RCR underneath. But, have to look for value. Wide open."

Now I'm just bragging... ha, that was somewhat lucky. Even I had the sense not to bet my own stone cold super in what looked liked a wide open race. I doubt the 10c super paid much anyhow.

I hope not.