A dozen chances to put up or, well, you know the rest.

Jill,

Cool Coal Man took the FOY with a rail skimming trip from the 1 post, look for Fierce Wind to get the same trip. Also, posts 8 out are 0 for the meet at 9f as well, the three favorites all have their work cut out. Posts 1-3 have won about 75% of 9f races at Gulfstream, with horses getting a rail trip winning 37% of the time. Gulfstream routes tend to be more tiring than people realize, and saving ground seems to be the key to winning. It'll be a race of strategy. Elysium Fields seems to be in the drivers seat if he breaks well and is ridden for position, if the others cross over in front of him, he'll be in trouble. Me thinks Big Brown has enough speed to push to the front and get the trip. Tomcito remains a threatening long shot.

Too bad about Big Brown and Face the Cat getting stick out wide. I was really looking forward to seeing Face the Cat run again but I think the post position will be too much to overcome. I am on the Tomcito bandwagon in this one. If I get a good price on him I am definitely going to fire just because of the possible potenetial that he posesses.

Elysium Fields almost pulled off a big win last time out from the wide post, so he should be alright Saturday, and I expect him to be in the trifecta or he is not a derby contender in my mind. Big Brown is supposed to be Barbaro-esque talent wise so if he is that good he will show it. The rest of them...who knows? I think Elysium Fields and Big Brown will be duking it out down the stretch and the winner will be the 2nd favorite for the Big Derby.

2nd favorite on Derby Day to the winner of the FLA Derby? If this race goes down as a classic, absolutely we may have a horse step up to that position. But look again at the Wood possibles- http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-...

I think if Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Gayego or Denis of Cork step up and knock it out of the park against this field (especially with a strong War Pass showing), there's your #2.

romccann, I agree about the Wood. I think the winner of the SA Derby and the Fla. Derby will duke it out for 3rd and 4th favorite. The wood will be full of proven horses while Santa Anita leaves alot to wonder about as far as the surface. And the Fla. Derby is full of horses who have yet to prove themselves whether it be class, or a strong 3yo foundation. Don't get me wrong I love the field and am really...really looking forward to it, but there is alot of unknowns.

I only mean second favorite would go to the winner if it Elysium Fields or Big Brown. Big Brown would definitely get there if he wins with that "impossible" post and again maintains a high Beyer figure. Undefeated with Curlinesque hype he would easily be more attractive to some 2 year old stars that are average at 3...not breaking a 100 beyer in the Wood. Elysium Fields I must concede, may not be hyped enough to be a second favorite, but he will be bet heavily if he wins Saturday.

I concede with Big Brown, maybe not E.Fields though. Don't forget if WPass wins the Wood he will automatically be the 2nd favorite and everyone will forget about Tampa.

I don't know what happen to me language skills...yeah if Big Brown and War Pass both win I think second favorite in the Derby goes to whichever one runs the bigger speed figure.

I dont think the theory about the outside posts' "impossible" winning percent means anything. Who knows what kind of horses were out in the 11 and 12 holes when they went 0-29 or whatever it is. Odds are they were longshots who couldnt of won if they were in the 1 thru 8. Derbyme suggests post 8 on out are 0 for at the meet too. Thing is Gulfstream doesn't run a lot of 1 1/8 races on the dirt during the meet and in the races they do run at that distance fields aren't very big. They are either off-the-turf races which half the field scratches out of or stakes races that only get about 8 entries. I dont think you can count Big Brown or Face the CAt out just because of their posts. Will it make it more difficult on them? Sure, but if they are as good as hyped then they should overcome it. I also think it will benefit them in the race if they run it the right way. If they are smart with Big Brown, they will ease him off a little to be about 4th or 5th. I dont think you have to be on the lead to have the best chance, I think you have to be in the second pack from 4th to 7th. Spring at Last, Cool Coal Man, and the Stronach mare (can't think of her name but she has run big at GP) all ran the same kind of race to win. Let the pace setters do their thing and pounce at the right time. If these horses can get in that position, I think their posts will be irrelavant.
Tomcito 12-1???????

post position is a huge part of the game....that is a issue for 50% of the field on the first saturday in may. the quality horses will usually overcome that stuff (point given and empire maker fans may disagree)

Does anyone really know the caliber of horse starting from post 11 or 12 in prior races. What are we talking about, horse which should not have won, or prohibited favorite's. Why is their so much comment on statistical post positions.

Sooner or later the post position will score, and the very fact it hasn't only means it closer to doing so?

Whether BB is post 12 or not, I think E-Fields is the best in the race. He sporting the class and beat the rest of the FOY field by 4 or 5 lengths. The FOY field was much tougher than this bunch. Most of these are Allowance horses which you will never surface again in Grade 1 class races. One shot and out type.

E-Fields validates the CCM win. Big Brown has not faced the kind of pressure during the running of the race he will see this Saturday. It one thing to race up front and never here another horses foot steps down the stretch, but another when you have someone breathing on your neck down the lane for all the money.

Thus far Big Brown has not faced any challenges in the lane. This will all change this Saturday with E - Fields.

bar,

0-29 posts 8 out this meet, don't know how many starters that is. I do know Adriano and Elysium Fields are included in that number. The "type" of race you are referring to with Spring at Last, CCM, and Ginger Punch is rail skimming. All took the inside route. Flaming Lips was second to Ginger Punch from the 1 post on the rail at like 55-1 or something. You just don't win from outside at GP at 9f. Scat Daddy did I guess... Anyway, I believe Brisnet PP's factor in number of runners in their statistical anaysis and posts 1-3 are + 1.75. It's been awhile since I've done Confidence Intervals and Standard Deviations, but I'm pretty sure 1.75 is statistically sinificant to some fair degree of confidence

The bias means something. Watch some replays. I don't know why, but the outside posts are a killer.

As far as racing knowledge, I guess I'm still running from the #12 hole when it comes to reading such enlighting comments. Although, Elysium Fields looks to be pretty good and seems to be coming around at just the right time. You always hear the pre-race hype about a potential favorite, i.e. Big Brown, who is really untested and on a quest to prove they rate. I think it's just that, "time to put-up or shut-up." Along with that, it seems Pletcher is just throwing that Cat against the wall to see if it sticks. I'm going with Elysium Fields, Fierce Wind and Tomcito.

Jill..

we are veryhappy with his performance. I had siad that he awas coming into the race 80-90% and that an ITM finish would get us to KY...we had hope we wpud be goo enough on march 29th, but at least we did get the ITM finish, and is commendable that at less than 90% he came from last to finish third in a speed track that had been sealed the day before...we are very happy...

Tomcito coughed this morning a couple of times, even Chavez said he coughed 3 times while warmimg up......we scoped him after the race and he had bled a little and had some flem...I guess he was just coming down with something...

We are happy...we screamed loudly and we love him...5 weeks from now, at 100% and the extra furlong...we should be very excited....and yes the belmont we think has been in our minds since last year.

thanks for your support and kudos to big brown

Excuses. Excuses. At least now I thought we wouldn't have to hear about Tomcito.

Coughed. Bled. 80%. 90%. I don't care. He lost by 12 1/2 lengths. He has absolutely no chance of winning the derby. That is very wishful thinking scripa. Good luck in the West Virginia Derby and the Ohio Derby later in the year.

Big Brown could be a superstar, he is not pace dependent, posts won't mean as much to his chances, the rest of the field was outclassed significantly. There is no spanish chestnut to stop him. Tomcito, sorry to hear it wasn't a perfect day, but it was a good showing. Maybe Tomcito will improve 2nd off the layoff...but he will need to improve a lot to catch the division leaders. I need Z Fortune to grab a 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby or better to squeak into the field.

Cdpotato4 - If I remember correctly you were the one that said Tomcito didn't belong. Definitely looked like he belonged to me. While he wasn't catching the winner, he did look good closing from the clouds. I don't think he should have been as far back, but am tickled with the way he finished. A better ride would have gotten him second - easily. So, I will anxiously await his second start off a layoff and hope Prado picks up the mount for the big dance.

I loved Big Brown's perfomance and think he could be something special. However, I must also say the same thoughts were in my head a few years back about Bellamy Road. BR's performances dwarfs any other perfomance in recent history for me - including Big Brown's. Again, I loved his performance and think it was the best performance of the year by far. Just don't know how he will react with 19 other horses on May 3rd. All indications thus far are good, but I still don't know if he can win against so many years of history that says he cannot. Although, he will definitely be on all of my tickets!

Cdpotato - One more thought. If you read Sripa's note early last week - he did say the horse was short beforehand. So, that isn't the excuse. Come on - the horse came in off a 4 month layoff. Besides, how would you know what the horse did before and after the race? Since his family owns the horse, I tend to side with him over a spectator. Again, I don't think he would have caught the winner, but love the fact he finished ahead of several horses that were "supposedly" better because they were US based horses. Hilarious. I guarantee he improves second start off the layoff and on a different (unbiased) surface - so watch out!

What is so hilarious?, he beat a E.fields whom didn't fire at all, fierce wind who was fading halfway down the backstretch, maj.warrior who's best days are behind him, c'mon, Tomcito has no chance on May 3rd. If you want to claim bias about front favoring GS park, then how about the inside post bias, don't hear you talking about that DerbyFan... now that's hilarious.

Yup Yup

My point Phil is exactly that several people said he couldn't even hit the board because he raced primarily in Peru. My point is that horses can come from any place and be competitive - not that hard to decipher from my previous and past posts. Although - I thought most would be smart enough to figure that out. That is what was hilarious or sad - however you choose to perceive it.

Additionally, I did not say Tomcito would win on May 3rd, only that I was glad he finished ITM. Sure, I wish he would have been second, but that's the nature of the game. Again, I take nothing from the winner as he was much the best, but will not concede the roses to him just yet. At this point in time, I still think Pyro is the horse to beat and I am not the biggest fan (just stating the obvious). However, Big Brown definitely made a case for himself and is my top 2 at the moment.