What can Brown do for you?

Agree 100%. Very, very impressive performance by Big Brown. He shattered all my doubts and I will rejoin the bandwagon after jumping off prior to the Florida Derby. He is a definite contender.

I loved the Tampa 2 in this race and Fierce Wind was a giant disappointment. However, I am extremely excited about Smooth Air's finish. I played him in pool 2 at nearly 200-1 and it looks like he may make the trip to Churchill. Not that I believe he will win, but it would be nice to have at least one of my futures in the field.

Churchill will be alot different track and not so speed favoring. Not to take anything away from him he looked good and ran them off there feet, im gonna guess a 105 figure??? I pitched Curlin last year for the same reason with just as many as 3 starts and i will do same with BB.. I think its just to hard on them going 1 1/4 ....Im excited about the pool 3 wager because with him taking all the hype i can get alot better odds on 2 horses i like...Im hoping War Pass wins the same way because i need all the speed i can get on Derby Day...I would be surprised even if BB is even standing in his stall today after that race...

I'm starting to love Cool Coal Man. Everyone's forgetting about him and he should sit a perfect stalking trip behind Big Brown and War Pass. I'm hoping he runs decent but not TOO well in the Bluegrass so he gets the needed fitness but maintains his "under the radar" status.

Jill, I agree Pyro and Big Brown are looking like they tower over the rest of the field right now. I still believe that Z Fortune will return to form in the Arkansas Derby, and if he does then he might be right in the mix with his solid foundation and an upward progression into the 100 plus beyer scale. I like Z Fortune better at a mile and a quarter than I do War Pass. And I think all three big California horses, and maybe even Gayego as well, are possibilities. I guess Garrett Gomez will ride either Court Vision or Z Fortune in the Derby, and I think he is one jockey who is due for a derby win.

Jill,
A question about what you saw from Elysium Fields before the race. When I was watching on ESPN the announcers were loving the way he looked on the track, saying he looked very professional and that he was going to run a big one. I didnt notice the wash out on TV but I repspect your opinion highly and was wondering what all you noticed. I personally don't think anyone has a chance now with Big Brown in the Derby, if the feet arent an issue. If he wins the Derby, the PReakness will suit his style perfectly, so we could have a Triple Crown possibility. I'm not saying this is the best horse I have ever seen but WOW pretty close. I dont know why almost everyone I have seen is doubting this horse. They think he is nothing special. He just ran 1 1/8 at Gulfstream almost 2 or 3 seconds faster than any other 3 year old there. That has to say something. I hope everyone keeps up the negativity so I can catch a big price.

Unless I am not aware of a injury , lets not forget the lurking Denis Of Cork. He will be ready in May in Kentucky not finished after a race in April. I predict that was the last time you will see Big Brown ever run. Just a hunch.

camchloe,

What? That is some wack thinking. Big Brown has ducked no one and will duck no one...and IEAH doesn't retire all their horses at the end of their three year old season. Big Brown is great for the sport, this year's Smarty Jones or Curlin or Afleet Alex...even the novice can see he is a special talent. You can like Denis of Cork all you want, he looks for the softest spots he can find. How is Big Brown finished? He didn't have to work too hard yesterday, he didn't have a speed duel, he is naturally fast, so it doesn't take as much out of him to run fast.

Jill, here are some BIG IF's: IF War Pass & Big Brown make it into the gate on May 3rd (barring, God-forbide, any physical infirmities) and IF they get into a speed duel from the get-go, then they could set the table for a Closer or Presser to come barrelling down the lane. Pyro, of course, is the first horse that will challenge given his versatility to run from mid-pack or from way-back and run a fast late pace. I agree with CAMCHLOE that DENIS OF CORK could be another one who will come running down the lane with ever increasing speed and could challenge Pyro for the win at the wire. His trainer, Carroll, is a good horseman who apparently is using the Thoroughgraph sheets to train DENIS OF CORK to peak on Derby Day. He knows his horse and made his decisions based upon form cycle patterns and the horse's physical constitution. Those reasons sound plausible to me so keep DENIS OF CORK on the dance card for winning the derby.... but there is one more big-hearted horse who may also be charging late and that horse with a big competitive heart...GEORGIE BOY! We will shortly see how big his heart is this coming Saturday at Santa Anita Park in the Santa Anita Derby!

barbeach,

I don't know if you saw this but I was watching the replay of the Florida Derby on HRTV this afternon and host Joanne Jones reported that the lackluster performance of Elysium Fields was due to him becoming overheated.

EF was in distress and there was concern in the Barclay Tagg barn for his health for quite some time until they were able to restore his temperature to normal.

I don't know much about horse health, but I did spend some time around livestock in my younger days and I know that they can get overheated and even die if they can not get their temperature restored to normal.

OK, People NEED to understand that Pyro is SLOW!! Now he can probably keep his steady pace for 5 miles. But a horse who runs a mile and a sixteenth knocking 1:45?....On a FAST Track?....On TWO occassions? C'mon, Unless the pace is absolutely blistering in the derby, in which Big Brown has proven to carry his speed for a period of time, I dont see Pyro finishing in the money.

I think Pyro can and will finish in the money, but unfortunately for his connections, I think the #1 spot is already taken...Come rain, or sunshine Big Brown will deliver.

Pyro and Denis of Cork will be set up for the derby. The tricky part for me will be do I key Big Brown and War Pass in the third spot on my trifecta or will they be "cooked" too early to hit the board. Wish we kneww more about how these Cal horses will run on dirt. Colonel John should be a threat if he can hold form on the dirt.El Gato Malo has been "unofficially training" on dirt some, but just don't see him getting the distance. Still think Tomcito could/should get into the top 10.

Oh yeah, and maybe a spot for one of Larry Jones' fillies...

Patbateman

BB is very talented but he hasn't beaten any top 10 horses either. Don't get me wrong I am puzzled by the strategy of my selections connections (DOC)but sticking to my guns and hunches

There are some horses like Texas Wildcatter who I want to see more of.
That being said, by the looks and by the numbers...dang...BB is great!
On the other hand, someone remarked \"Pyro is slow". No, he's a closer.
He is good in traffic. He doesn't get rattled if another horse passes
him. That may be his undoing. It looks to me, from watching the tapes,
that Pyro is excellent at following directions--he goes when his jockey
tells him to go and executes exactly what he is asked to do. His jockey Shaun
has been great riding him. What if Pyro unluckily gets a bad ride? Since
he won't be close to the front, he won't win. On the other hand, I think
BB is going to be there at the end whomever rides him. Remember, that 22 second opening split was even faster considering BB had to cut across the field
and also his finishing time was even faster considering he ran further than
the field. Both horses are strong contenders:
BB looks ready to win on his talent alone.
Pyro looks ready to win because he and Shaun make a great team.
It's going to be an exciting Derby.

No doubt the Florida Derby was a very impressive performance by Big Brown..all the talk was how he had no chance from post 12...but lets look at what was inside of him....Face the cat had speed but really never competed at this level and the same for Hey Byrn...The Tampa bunch,Smooth Air, Fierce Wind etc proved to be a cut below....and most of post 2 thru 7 was unproven against anybody.....and Tomcito hadnt even run in the US............my point.............remember Bellamy Road?...he came to the Derby as a cant miss and was never heard from again...and he was very impressive in the Wood,on dirt,etc..........I like horses with tough races in their resume...let's keep an eye on the two weekends full of preps starting with the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood and ending with the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass...all Grade Ones with plenty of good horses to do battle with and prepare for the first saturday in May....Big Brown could be a monster...but I would rather see one with late run rather a lot early speed at Churchhill.........If things work out just right,there could be a ton of early speed in the race with the likes of Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Big Brown,My Pal Charlie, Sinature Move and War Pass....Ithink I would rather sit back and make a big run like Monarchos,or Giacomo or even Grindstone....I guess we will find out soon.

15 horses which have entered the Kentucky Derby with three or fewer lifetime starts since 1900, only Regret, the winner in 1915, and Curlin, who finished third last year, have finished in the money. All but two of the remaining horses finished 10th or worse.

Mike, I love it. I'm a numbers guy too, I like speed figures and the ability of horses to run fast. The horse could challenge Secretariat's Derby record time this year, in my mind.

Ok, I get what your saying, but do u think the K.D.'s fractions are goin to be any faster than 22 3/5, 45 4/5, 1:10 and a 1:35 mile? If they are then Pyro would have to have a magic trip to win but those fractions didnt seem to affect Big Brown at all on Sat.

I am leaning on taking Colonel John on Derby Day. I absolutely love this colt's pedigree. By Tiznow, out of a Turkoman mare...can't ask for much better breeding for classic distances than that. I am actually hoping for a close 2nd place finish in the Santa Anita derby to drive the price up to about 15-1 or so for the derby. Tiznow was a late bloomer so I am hoping Colonel John has his best races ahead of him...hopefully May 3rd, 2008.

Agree with geezy. I don't care what track you are on, going 22^3 and 45^4 on the front end and winning at 1 1/8m is pretty impressive. He also went the final 1/8 in :12 flat after those fast fractions. You must give credit where credit is do.

He may be a monster. Or he may be a Bellamy Road who wired the Wood in '05 in scarily (is that a word) similar fashion. I don't know and I am not ready to come to a conclusion at this time, but the Florida Derby performance was impressive non the less.

*:13 flat and drew off

I misremembered

Jill, you are the best at what you do. How about an off track, War Pass is two for two, Visionaire has won. Cool Coal Man has,Big brown has not run on a off track. The California crew El Gato Malo, Georgie Boy and Colonel John with all the rain out west have not. Give me your take on a rainy first Saturaday in May.

Jill, you are the best at what you do. How about an off track, War Pass is two for two, Visionaire has won. Cool Coal Man has,Big brown has not run on a off track. The California crew El Gato Malo, Georgie Boy and Colonel John with all the rain out west have not. Give me your take on a rainy first Saturaday in May.

WAY TO GO JILL DOING HER HOME WORK SHE HIT IT ON THE HEAD Elysium Fields likely cost himself a shot at the Derby by sweating profusely going to the gate and then coming apart at the seams after tracking the pace down the backstretch. This was more than lathering up on the neck. He was soaking wet all over his body, and that no doubt did him in, especially considering he came back after the race with an elevated temperature from overheating so badly. It’s a shame to lose that way, because this is a good horse who will bounce back from this for sure.

FROM STEVE HASKIN

Great job Jill. I've enjoyed your analysis the past few weeks and as always you have a depth that impresses. Big Brown sure impressed on Saturday but no need for fear in Camp Pyro!
Pyromaniac
www.pyroderby.com

News flash..........Georgie Boy is out

For the official record, Big Brown ran the final furlong in 12.98 seconds, not 13 flat.

1:48.16 - 1:35.18 = 12.98 , which of course is closer to 13 than 12. But given those early fractions, BB ran all the others near him off their feet and did well to come home in that time. In fact, only a freak could come home in 12.98 after running 22-3/5 and 45-4/5 and 1:10 flat. The only horse from last year's Derby trail that could set fractions like that and finish strongly was Hard Spun. Any other year he could have been at least the Derby winner, or the BC Classic winner. Of course, Bellamy Road set fast fractions and finished stronly in the Wood. Bellamy Road or Hard Spun?

Neither, I think Big Brown is like a combo of HS and Curlin. But we will see...

One other thought. Too bad BB isn't as sound as Hard Spun was when he was running. His Vet bill, according to Larry Jones, was under $100 a month! He never had any issue with anything like cracked hooves or pulled muscles, or anything. He also got a massage once a month! Dutrow needs to call the massuese.

Is anyone looking at the 12 race of the day. Big Brown race needs to be measured against the 12 race. There was a track record set by who? at the same distance in 1:47 and change.

I have not read any press clipping concerning th track record. Why? Why? Why?

Oh, that right, you suppose to believe Big Brown ran this devastating race of the day.

Well, I raining on his parade! It was the second best race of the day, behind a 75,000 optional claimer from out west! Get it from "Out West" which did not place in his previous race.

So don't tell me about 110 beyers, because some guy who sits on his chair say's so!
The track record should earned 115 beyers and that put him in with a shot against CURLIN!

Come on my friends, please evaluate the race against additional races for the day!

It was not as great if you really think on it! Everything which cross the finish line 2nd thru last place, does not deserve the argument of being in the top 10 three year olds. The distance between 1st and 3rd, 13 lengths speak volumes about the competitions. The Florida Derby at best was the high price allowance race. The 12 race of the day validates this statement, because high price allowance horse running for 75K was the final race.

When does allowance horses set track records or even flirt with them?

Easy Barry....deep breaths now, count to ten in spanish. Give us your top 10 and you'll feel much better.

Why haven't you read any press clippings about the track record?

BECAUSE IT WASN'T A TRACK RECORD.

Your points would be a lot more valid if you actually got your facts straight beforehand.

What do you all think the cutoff will be this year for graded earning to get into the Derby? Is say 132k enough for a horse like Tomcito? Also, do you think Adriano's owners will get derby fever and put him in the derby? or do they stay with their decision to bypass it?