No Hard Spun, but a competitive group in Lecomte

A year ago, Hard Spun rolled into New Orleans for his first official stop on the road to his runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) with a stellar pedigree, solid connections and a perfect record that included three dominant wins by a combined 21 ½ lengths. Despite those impressive credentials, the Danzig colt did not get widespread respect as a top Derby contender until he conquered the one-mile race by 6 ½ emphatic-lengths to run his record to an unchallenged 4-for-4 and pick up his first signature win.

Saturday's Lecomte lacks a heavy favorite of Hard Spun's profile but includes a much more competitive group than last year's renewal, as nine well-matched colts will go to post - each searching for their initial signature win and first step toward the Run for the Roses in Fair Grounds' first of three key Derby preps.

To say there isn't another Hard Spun among the group might not be totally fair. A few of these colts have plenty of qualities you like to see in Derby hopefuls this time of year, just not the dominant race records coming in.

There will be no runaway winner in this year's renewal of the Lecomte, but that also doesn't mean that it cannot be a key race going forward. The three obvious challengers Saturday are the likely favorite Blackberry Road, Grade 3 winner Texas Fever, and Macho Again, who I believe will win this race.

Macho Again is not exactly Hard Spun right now. As a matter of fact, he is still eligible for an entry-level allowance race at this point. However, the son of top freshman sire Macho Uno has run three quality races on the dirt (throwing out his Polytrack effort at Keeneland) against good competition and his pedigree suggests the best is yet to come.

His last race, an allowance at Churchill Downs on a day that featured only two-year-old races, was one of the better heats on the program, as it featured one of Todd Pletcher's top Derby hopefuls, Monba, and the highly-regarded Jedi Code. Macho Again fell a neck short to Monba in that affair after putting in a strong stretch rally, but he looked good doing it, racing a bit green in the stretch after incurring some trouble. As soon as he hit the wire, I got on my computer and put him in my stablemail as a horse to watch for the future. That future appears to have come just one race later in Saturday's Lecomte, where I expect the gray colt to run big.

Aside from the qualities mentioned above, Macho Again lures top rider Julien Leparoux to New Orleans and figures to get a favorable pace scenario to set up his late kick down that long Fair Grounds stretch. I expect a few of these to carve out an honest pace and for Leparoux to have Macho Again in a good spot around mid-pack tracking on the outside. I like his closing kick more than the rest of this cast and I expect him to prove best inside the sixteenth pole.

Blackberry Road will be the favorite off his fast-closing runner-up effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November. He is a slightly-built colt but there is no question that he is all racehorse. His pedigree is second to none, being by Gone West and a half-brother to champion Vindication and Scipion, winner of the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds at three.

But Macho Again's race on that same card was the better performance of the two, and Blackberry Road will likely be the underlay here.

Texas Fever has amazingly never raced on dirt from five lifetime starts, but he certainly is training well over it and boasts a pedigree to excel on it. He is the lone graded winner of the bunch (defeated Blackberry Road in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile) and there are no questions about his abilities to handle the trip. While he would be my second choice in the race, I still question whether or not he can run fast enough to compete at this level, as this year's Kentucky Cup Juvenile did not appear to be a strong renewal.

Look for Macho Again to give trainer Dallas Stewart his first real Derby hopeful since Storm Surge, who put himself on the map with a victory in the 2005 renewal of the Lecomte. Does a win mean Macho Again is the goods? It will likely be too early to really tell, but it will certainly stamp him as one of the top sophomores on the local grounds and in the South. We'll likely have to wait a little longer to discover a Hard Spun-type.