Z Fortune tough to knock

As much as I respect trainer Steve Asmussen – and I happen to be a long-time member of his fan club – I couldn’t quite see his unbeaten 3-year-old colt Z Fortune storming into Fair Grounds with New York-bred allowance form and easily winning the Lecomte on Saturday.

But maybe I should have.

After all, I’m not surprised. Asmussen winning big races at his winter base of Fair Grounds in New Orleans is like LSU winning major bowl games in the Superdome in their own backyard. Nobody does it better. (As an avid Tiger fan, I had to use that analogy).

And yes, I did mention that Z Fortune won easily. The final margin was 2 ¾ lengths but there was much more in the tank. He galloped out very well with his ears up in the air as if there was more to give in just his third start and first against stakes company. The acceleration Z Fortune displayed the final sixteenth of a mile to separate himself from the field was impressive, as he was really moving and reaching out nicely under Shaun Bridgmohan.

He obviously didn’t need to prove to his trainer that he was up for Saturday’s challenge, but he had to prove to the racing world that he was more than just a superior New York-bred beating up on state-bred rivals. Saturday’s victory likely accomplished that, as he now owns three easy wins by a combined 14 lengths and added an important stakes win to his resume. Not bad.

If you wanted to make a comparison (no, not to fellow NY-bred Funny Cide) to a year ago, Hard Spun won his first two starts by 13 ¾ lengths, while Z Fortune won his first couple of races by a combined 11 ¼ lengths – both colts racing against lesser competition. Hard Spun’s breakout effort in the Lecomte earned him a 95 Beyer Speed Figure – the same figure Z Fortune earned for his dominant win in the one-mile race.

Now, I know I said that there was no Hard Spun in this year’s renewal of the Lecomte and I still stick to that opinion, but I was impressed by Z Fortune and his performance and think he will certainly be a strong force in Fair Grounds’ next two major Derby preps – the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.

My gut still tells me that he will need to get a lot better to challenge on the first Saturday in May, as my overall opinion of the Lecomte field going in was not that strong. But looking at Z Fortune’s current body of work along with some other important qualities, it is very hard to knock him at this point.

Aside from his unbeaten and unchallenged three-race record, it is also worth noting his level of professionalism. Whether he has sprinted, routed, been on the lead or rated behind horses early on, the result has been the same – total domination. Additionally, he has handled climate changes and track-surface changes. As recently as last month, Z Fortune was training at Belmont and racing at Aqueduct before shipping south to New Orleans.

He has had a lot thrown at him in just three lifetime starts – much more than the average young horse with similar experience – and the fact that he has handled it all as well as he has to this point while winning with relative ease impresses me most about the gray colt.

Not only is he in the right hands to succeed - hailing from the Asmussen barn, but Z Fortune also has plenty of family to suggest that he’ll hang around and continue to get better as the distances increase. He is by Siphon, who was at his best at Classic distances, and out of the mare Fortunate Faith, who was a graded stakes winner at 1 1/8-miles – which is basically the farthest race contested on dirt for fillies and mares in North America.

In terms of ability, his 95 Beyer Speed Figure in January of his 3-year-old season suggests he is plenty fast enough in just his third start to be a legitimate Derby contender, and his upside for further improvement is tremendous considering those limited number of starts and the fact that he has yet to be asked for his best.

Move over Pyro and Kodiak Kowboy, there’s a new young gun in the barn.