Is Denis of Cork for real?

Many people believe the best 3-year-old based at Fair Grounds could be a colt that has not even raced in stakes company yet. That colt goes by the name of Denis of Cork, and he hails from the barn of trainer David Carroll, who also happens to train another colt that is stakes accomplished and regarded as one of the best on the grounds, that colt is Blackberry Road.

While Blackberry Road is a nice, well-bred colt, he is 1 for 7 life time and gives the impression he might be a cut below the best of his generation. His last two starts in graded stakes were solid performances, which included back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and most recently the Lecomte (G3). But both runnings of those respective races were not vintage renewals.

Carroll's most intriguing sophomore is Denis of Cork, a $250,000 purchase by freshman sire sensation Harlan's Holiday. And it only took one race to get people buzzing about his potential. That race was a debut victory on the final day of the Fall Meet at Churchill Downs in late November. Denis of Cork settled towards the the rear of the 12-horse maiden special weight event before looping the field and impressively winning at first asking, passing 10 horses and making up some eight lengths in the process.

But really, how good of a race was it?

The answer to that question is not completely clear, but here's my take on it: While it was a visually impressive performance, it is fair to say that closers had a lot of success that day on the 12-race program at Churchill. Additionally, the speed figures were not earth shattering, although they were close to a solid entry-level allowance race and the aforementioned Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, both races featuring more seasoned runners.

I liked the professionalism Denis of Cork showed, breaking nicely only to take back and settle before commencing a wide rally and running down a decent horse in Stungbythestorm. It was a relatively trouble free trip but any debut winner at a major track that passes the majority of the field and makes up that much ground the final quarter of a mile merits some credit. Aside from being a good-looking colt, Denis of Cork also has a nice way of going, and he gobbled up ground nicely when asked for his best in that maiden win.

What about Stungbythestorm, who Denis of Cork ran down late? That colt had the experience of a prior race coming in, but it was just an okay third-place finish over the Keeneland Polytrack. The horse that easily defeated Stungbythestorm that day was the Todd Pletcher-trained Monba, who was also making his debut. Monba returned in an entry-level allowance race on Nov. 24 at Churchill four races after Denis of Cork ran down Stungbythestorm, and the Maria's Mon colt won the race and recorded a faster Beyer Speed Figure than Denis of Cork and Stungbythestorm earlier on the card.

Stungbythestorm returned to win his next start in a maiden special weight at Fair Grounds, but it wasn't the type of performance that will place Stungbythestorm on the Derby trail anytime soon.

So to sum it up: I liked what my eyes saw in Denis of Cork's debut, but after reviewing that race on paper and how that day's form has since held up, I was very skeptical about how good of a debut it truly was and very intrigued to see his follow-up race.

That came in the form of an entry-level allowance at Fair Grounds on Saturday, where Denis of Cork was made the odds-on favorite in his first start around two turns. The race turned up with a couple of colts that had proven they could run, and it appeared to be a good test for Denis of Cork in his first start against winners.

It is also worth mentioning that Denis of Cork did not have the best of months in December. His tough debut along with the ship to New Orleans shortly after likely took its toll on the young colt, and Carroll had to take it slow with Denis of Cork last month, citing "growing and changing" as reasons for the eight-week layoff between his maiden race and his allowance try. Carroll also told the Daily Racing Form in mid-December: "He's not back to where he was before (his maiden race), and you don't want to stress him out right now."

It may have taken Carroll another month to get him ready, but Denis of Cork looked well in his two-turn debut, racing very wide all the way around a taxing Fair Grounds main track before showing his gameness to win by a neck over Unbridled Vicar.
So, how good was win No. 2?

Again, it was visually impressive from the standpoint that Denis of Cork raced so wide all the way around the oval in his first start going just over a mile, undoubtedly losing a lot of ground in the process. At first glance, I was a bit disappointed that he failed to draw away from his competition in mid-stretch like you expect a good horse to do, but it is very hard to fault a developing 3-year-old that has had documented setbacks, was making just his second start and first going long, and had to race pretty wide over a tiring track. All considered, it's easy to see why he was a bit gassed against a tough runner-up in Unbridled Vicar, who already had a second-place showing in a two-turn allowance race over the track coming into Saturday.

Denis of Cork earned an 82 Beyer Speed Figure for the performance, which is basically the same as his 83 when breaking his maiden. While he failed to improve in the numbers, this race was probably much better than his Beyer figure indicates when taking all factors into account.

So, is Denis of Cork for real?

I think the jury is still out. There is no doubt that he is good, but to be a legitimate Derby horse you have to be better than good. His talent is undeniable, but he needs to show that he can stand up to big effort after big effort. Horses that excel in the Derby and Triple Crown are the ones that can handle the grind from the spring through the summer, and Denis of Cork must prove he can bounce out of his allowance win and make the successful jump to stakes company within 4-6 weeks.

He's already overcome quite a bit in his young career, and his style and distance-loving pedigree (out of an Unbridled mare) should certainly help him if he makes it into the gates the first Saturday in May. It also doesn't hurt that he has experience at Churchill and has taken to that surface.

The Risen Star Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9 at Fair Grounds appears to be arriving too soon for Denis of Cork, as he would have to come back in three weeks. Plus, Carroll has committed stablemate Blackberry Road to that race.

It is more likely Carroll will wait and look to ship north for the one-mile Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 18 for Denis of Cork, or possibly something even further down the road.

Wherever Denis of Cork shows up, he'll need to take that next step forward that is required of top Derby contenders in the late winter and spring. It is then when we'll learn a lot more about whether Denis of Cork is truly for real or not.