Swale likely to unveil nice 3-year-old, but no Derby horse

Saturday's 23rd renewal of the 6 ½-furlong Swale (G2) on the Donn undercard matches seven up-and-coming sophomores with all runners seeking their first respective stakes victory.

The field features a lightly-raced and promising group for the most part, and typical of most runnings of the Swale, the winner will likely stamp himself as a 3-year-old to be reckoned with for the rest of the year.

However, it is not likely to produce a contender for the Kentucky Derby.

The Swale is a very important sprint for 3-year-olds early in the season and it's list of 22 winners includes some of the game's past stars, including the brilliant Lost in the Fog who captured the 2005 running. But with only about three months until the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May, most of the legitimate Derby contenders have exited sprint races and moved on to distance-oriented challenges preparing for the 1 ¼-mile race in front of them underneath the famed Twin Spires.

That certainly does not undermine the quality of Saturday's Swale, nor does it say for fact that it will not produce a Derby contender.

I see two colts in particular that appear to be serious racehorses in-the-making, and perhaps they represent the best opportunity for the Swale to produce a Derby contender. Those two are Eaton's Gift and Wincat, and I was lucky enough to catch both colts' maiden wins – which happened to be two of the more impressive maiden wins I saw late in 2007.

Do I think both are pure sprinters? It sure would appear that way, although both have pedigrees to handle more ground.

Eaton's Gift is a colt that has generated buzz around the track since he arrived at trainer Dale Romans' Kentucky barn last spring. The Johannesburg colt debuted as the favorite at Churchill Downs in late May and was a disappointing fifth after incurring some minor setbacks. He would resurface nearly five months later at Keeneland's Fall meet with a strong series of works coming into the race.

Sent off as the favorite again, Eaton's Gift would not disappoint this time. The speedy colt broke on the lead and set quick fractions in the 11-horse maiden heat over the local Polytrack – which is not a recipe for success over that surface. Eaton's Gift defied the closer's bias and kicked on after setting the half-mile in a crisp :45.60 to finish up strongly and stop the timer in 1:09.60 for six furlongs, instantly validating the buzz he had created training in the mornings all summer.

He returned a month later and went favored in an entry-level allowance race at Churchill Downs, and he once again ran the opposition off their feet, dictating every part of the running in the seven-furlong race to win clear at the wire. Referee and Unbridled Vicar, the second- and third-place finishers, respectively, behind Eaton's Gift, are both very solid colts that have turned in big races already in their young careers, and although the race only earned Eaton's Gift a Beyer Speed Figure of 81 I believe it was a quality 2-year-old allowance race.

Eaton's Gift was then shipped to California for a shot at the big money in the $753,000 Cash Call Futurity (G1) at Hollywood Park. He would also be making his two-turn debut in the lucrative race - an experiment that didn't go favorably.

Eaton's Gift had no problems making the lead in his two prior races at sprint distances, so naturally he found himself on the lead again in the 12-horse Futurity. But he had to fight hard for that lead all the way around, and by the time they hit the top of the stretch he had nothing left. He would check in a tiring seventh beaten 6 ¼ lengths.

Maybe it was the pressured pace, or maybe he didn't care for the local Cushion Track. Maybe the travel and acclimation was a factor in his poor performance. All certainly could have contributed to Eaton's Gift first loss in three starts, but until he proves to me otherwise I am going to assume that he is a one-turn horse that couldn't handle the distance.

His sire Johannesburg was a middle distance sort and a brilliant racehorse, and the majority of his runners are middle distance horses. He has shown the ability to get a horse that can excel at longer trips when paired with the right mix of stamina on the dam side, but Eaton's Gift is out of a Carson City mare and his female family and all-around pedigree screams speed and precociousness.

He is definitely fast and precocious, and cutting back in the Swale should be just what the doctor ordered. As long as he remains healthy he has a bright future sprinting in stakes company, and that bright future starts Saturday.

Unlike Eaton's Gift, Wincat only has one start on his resume but it was a very good one. The West Point Stables runner debuted in late December at Philadelphia Park and waltzed to a 6 ¾-length romp over a full field. The impressive part was the fashion in which he did it, setting the early pace and effortlessly opening up on the far turn and drawing well clear in the stretch under his own courage. Wincat stopped the clock in racehorse time of 1:09.20 for six furlongs – that without ever seriously being encouraged by the rider in his first lifetime race.

I don't care what racetrack he did it at. Anyone who saw the race knows that it was a powerhouse performance by one serious young horse.

Wincat has since relocated from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's barn in New York to his winter base at Palm Meadows training track in South Florida, and his latest bullet work on Jan. 21 indicates just why McLaughlin feels that Wincat is ready for the jump from a Philly Park maiden race to a Grade 2 at Gulfstream. You can bet that he is sitting on another big one and the Swale could prove to be his breakout race.

But if it proves to be a breakout race for him, does that make him an over-night Derby contender? The answer to that question will depend a lot on whether he visually looks like a horse that can handle more ground.

Wincat is a son of 2002 European Champion Juvenile Hold That Tiger, who certainly had no distance limitations. Hold That Tiger was G1-placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind champion Vindication at two and the Woodward behind horse of the year Mineshaft at three, and he is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes winner Editor's Note. Wincat's dam is by Dayjur, the brilliant sprinter by Danzig, but most of his female family consists of solid stamina influences including a lot of European breeding.

At first glance on paper, one would have to give Wincat a shot at stretching out. But the natural quickness and speed he displayed in his maiden win certainly allows for legitimate concerns about his ability top stretch it around two turns. But to say he can't do it based on viewing one race in which he was never asked for his best is far from an exact science.

I expect both Wincat and Eaton's Gift to prove themselves to be the best 3-year-olds among the Swale cast, and it should be a great race when these two hook up in the stretch under the Miami sun. By Saturday evening, we should know if this year's Swale produced that rare viable Derby contender.

Whether it does or doesn't, you can bet it will unveil a nice 3-year-old – and maybe two.