Things get hotter for Pyro - much hotter

Ill take Pyro to win it all, he has already beat Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior once and now there gonmna come back from layoffs and beat him i think its doubtfull..

For my money, I am taking Tale of Ekati in the Louisiana Derby. I like Pyro, Blackberry Road, and Unbridled Vicar to pick up the pieces late and finish out the superfecta. I have never been a big fan of Majestic Warrior or Yankee Bravo so I am throwing them both out. I see the pace analysis going exactly the way that you described it. J Be K out to a quick lead with Tale of Ekati a length behind him and all of the closers well back. Tale of Ekati will pass J Be K up on the turn and hold off the late charges from the closers.

Can I just make one comment about not only this race, but the prep races and 3 year olds in general this year. Where is the up front speed? In my mind, this year will be exactly like last year. War Pass running away up front and Pyro closing on him just like Hard Spun and Street Sense last year. Look at the fractions in every race War Pass has run, and then look at the fractions in every other prep race out there. If Pyro hadn't got stuck behind traffic in the Risen Star, he'd of won by at least 10 lengths. The Fountain of Youth, the Sham, and all the Louisiana races so far haven't had any up front speed. I'm not big on lead horses in the triple crown, since 3 races in 5 weeks is tough, but War Pass has come along at the right time for a year with no speed. Grant it every race he's ran against Pyro, Pyro came closing, but War Pass still won. He knows how to pace himself without being challenged.

1. Pyro, 2. Tale of Ekati, 3. My Pal Charlie

I can see Pyro holding a little too much in reserve here against what (cross your fingers) hopefully is a very strong field of Derby horses. However, I am not betting on it. He is the other most impressive horse on the trail and I think his late steam is too much.

Tale of Ekati is probably eager and will run well here. I wonder how "fresh" he is though, with the recent hard works. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the middle of the pack or the winner's circle.

My Pal Charlie is this race's Elysium Fields. He has run progressively better and I feel his coming out party here. Plus, unlike the annointed J Be K, he has experience running close to the distance. If he comes out in a nice stalking position, I think he'll have enough to show. I know he hasn't raced anyone yet, but then if I don't take this shot here, I don't get to look like some smug genius after the race.

One last prediction - Blackberry Road makes his move in the stretch when a piano drops from the sky causing him to pull up and all his diehard backers rip up their tickets in disgust and promise that he's winning the Blue Grass or whatever.

With all the closers.....who is going to run with War Pass on the first Saturday in May?

Joel - Nice take on the race and I couldn't agree more. I think Pyro's Risen Star was impressive, but so were the wins of Notional, Lawyer Ron, Scipion, and Dollar Bill. Aside from Lawyer Ron, none of these horses went on to gain much notoriety. That said, I am not writing off Pyro, just stating a well known fact that the Risen Star doesn't say or mean much when speaking of Derby contenders. Grant it there were a few decent horses in the Risen Star, but no world beaters. Heck, if you listen to most people, they act like he beat Secretariat. For now, I will agree he was impressive, but so was War Pass and he didn't much either. No one mentions, War Pass was being geared down each time he beat Pyro last year or mentions that no horse can go with War Pass and be there in the end. I will throw out one more thing for the Pyro bandwagon - here is THE reason he stands ZERO chance on the 1st Saturday in May - Shaun Bridgmohan. Yes, the guy wins at Arlington, Churchill (mostly minor/listed stakes wins at best), and Fair Grounds, but he is nowhere to be found when big name riders like Desormeaux, Gomez, Prado, and Velazquez are around. Now, will I throw him in my exotics on Derby - possibly, but mark it down today - he stands absolutely zero chance winning the Derby! Yes, his pedigree is impressive, but that could be said for almost every Derby contender. So, until he replicates his last effort against better horses, I say he can't replicate it against the best of his generation. That said, I completely agree Prado can steal this race on Tale of Ekati with Majestic Warrior for the place and Blackberry Road/Pyro for the show.

Camchloe - No one. They are all running for second!

Geared down? Maybe you should go back and watch his replays, he was all out at Belmont and won by a half a lenght.. That race was only a mile and he stole the breeders cup because it was a a slop fest...I just hope he stays fit and makes the gate so i can see them go 45 and watch him fold like a lawn chair..

Mike - Perhaps, he had to work a little harder at Belmont, but by no means was he all out or the jockey going crazy with the stick. So, yes, I still say geared down. You can't honestly say he was asked for anything on BC day last year with CV sitting chilly the entire trip. All out = Pyro's effort to catch him every time, especially in the BC while getting his doors blown off under a hand ride. While I normally wouldn't be excited about a speed horse, War Pass is definitely the real deal. Much like Street Sense last year, there is an undeniable presence about him. I do agree there are doubts he can go 10 furlongs on the front end. However, his sire ran second in Preakness and his pedigree on the dam's side is bred to go long, again and again. Hard Spun would have won the Derby on the front end last year if Street Sense didn't get through on the rail and he didn't go 45 and change. Not to mention, War Pass has never run the half in 45 and won't do it on Derby day. Unlike most people that "demand" value on Derby day, I like to handicap from the perspective of cashing the ticket, not saying horse A, B, or C is a better value. So, proceed with caution that speed can't beat you on the Derby day, but remember it has before and will again. Much like most Derby races, this year's race will be won by a horse either on the lead or just off of it. Of course, post position will also play a major role in the race, but I think War Pass has enough speed to clear the field from any post. This next statement is somewhat relevant, but several doubters never thought Ruffian could go long early in her career and she was able to carry her speed any distance. So, is it possible War Pass can carry his speed beyond 8 furlongs? I honestly think he could be a freak and talented enough to do it, but only time will tell.

Just to clarify and so "stones" aren't thrown at me - I am not comparing Ruffian and War Pass, just simply stating they have similar running styles.

War Pass has raced 5 times and out of the 5 he has went 45 at the half in 4 of them except the last race was 46....Trust me im glad hes in ...On another note BIG BROWN is staying for the Florida Derby that will be nice...

You are correct. What the heck was I thinking? Anyhow, call me crazy, but I have a feeling the Tampa Bay Derby and or the Wood will be attempts to see if he can attempt to "rate" on the front end or at least harness his speed a little better. It just seems like the Derby is shaping up to be a race with little speed on the front end and I also like the fact Zito has a ton of experience and success in the Derby. If they can manage to slow his half down to 48, perhaps he could have plenty rounding for home? On another note Big Brown also looks good to me, but so does Hey Burn. However, I also like Tomcito if he decides to stay in the US.

Tomcito...Tomcito...Tomcito

Enough!

I HOPE HE DOES POINT TO THE FLORIDA DERBY SO WE CAN SEE HIM FOLD LIKE SAMMY FARHA IN THE 2003 WSOP.

DerbyFan,
War Pass has never been geared down until his last race. If you would like to see a perfect example of a horse being geared down visit this site.

http://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/videos/index.html

Go to February 15th Race 8. This is J Be K's last race in which he was geared down in the last 1/16, could have won by more and a faster time but gotta save something for the stretch out.
Go J Be K!!!!

Pyro all the way.

Asmussen 1-2 YES!!!

Joel, I agree with your analysis but I think Tale of Ekati needs a race. The same field and distance and posts in one month and maybe so, but this time I think Pyro is just too sharp. I also somewhat disagree with the statement that Majestic Warrior and Pyro have the same talent level. I think Pryo has proven talent as a route runner, and that Majestic Warrior still has a whole lot to prove.

Correction to your article Joel, Tale of Ekati finished 4th in the BC. He was bottled up and probably could have moved to 3rd with some grip.

On Majestic Warrior, be careful with your money here. I scored well on him in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga (personally my favorite 2yo race) but that race was a four horse affair and he ran down two tiring horses who ground each other to dust in what amounted to a match race - it was a set up. Majestic Warrior got a wind fall that day, he didnt prove anything.

Tagg picks his spots, and always does right by the horses. Ekati is ready for this.

Pyro/Ekati, put a box around 'em and hold tight. We are going to see one heck of a stretch run.

Joel, it was a surprising race, it was good to see Pyro once again handle traffic with patience and tactical speed...It looked like he might not ever get room for a minute there...If Z Fortune's only loss was to Pyro, why is Blackberry Road still getting bet so much more heavily? What has Denis of Cork done to warrant third favorite status? Blackberry Road doesn't like to win, obviously.

Called Elysium Fields and called My Pal Charlie. Feeling good.

Does anyone know what happened to Kodiak Kowboy? Is he going to try and run in the Derby?

whooa, Denis of Cork had better be an absolute freak now to have a chance in Kentucky. Unless he is of Barbaro quality the lack of seasoning and the long layoff scares me, especially at those super low odds 2 months out.