War Pass's main challengers: distance & surface

Saturday's $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in Hillsborough, Florida appears to be the second “free pass” in as many starts for champion War Pass on his way to the Kentucky Derby, as he'll take on six seemingly harmless 3-year-olds in the 1 1/16-mile event.

It marks the second start of his 3-year-old campaign, and the field is not much better than the overmatched crowd he faced last month in his seasonal debut in a Gulfstream Park allowance race – one War Pass won in a gallop by 7 ½ lengths. That track's racing office had to hustle hard to find challengers for War Pass, and Tampa Bay Downs had to do the same with just three confirmed runners earlier this week.

A few local horses joined the mix late, but there doesn't appear to be anything in the way of War Pass – except for maybe himself.

If you go by the betting public Saturday, the chances of War Pass winning are obviously very high. But if he were to lose, the chances might be even higher that the defeat was due to his own shortcomings – and not because another horse outperformed War Pass and was simply better than him.

The two biggest challengers - both pointed for the Tampa Bay Derby with War Pass all along - are Sam F. Davis runner-up Big Track and the Todd Pletcher-trained Atoned, but neither is in the same class as the champ or has run close to as fast. As a matter of fact, War Pass's Beyer Speed Figure of 84 - his lowest - earned while breaking his maiden in his debut is higher than Atoned's lifetime high Beyer of 82 from seven starts at two. Big Truck has paired 87s, including his near win last out in the Sam Davis at Tampa, but even that figure is well shy of the numbers War Pass is routinely cranking out these days.

It's a complete mismatch again, and for War Pass to lose one of two things will have to happen: He 'll fail to handle the distance, or he'll fail to handle a local surface that can be tough for newcomers. Technically, I suppose there could be a third obstacle, but that involves the health of the horse – so we won't go there.

If he successfully gets over the Tampa surface and can handle this short, two-turn trip then he'll make short work of this field and successfully move on to his final prep for the Kentucky Derby – end of story.

Should War Pass cave, Big Truck could become the horse to beat with his solid performance over the track. Atoned will be making his 3-year-old debut, and he progressively improved as a juvenile, finishing a narrow second to Court Vision in the Remsen (G2) in his last. The son of Repent has been training well at Palm Beach Downs and figures to improve as a 3-year-old, but he would need to get really good in a hurry to be close to War Pass if that one fires.

The reality is we'll likely not know much more than we already know about War Pass if he wins the Tampa Bay Derby, with another field lite on legitimate challengers. But if he loses the race, we'll likely know a whole lot more – and the sharks (other top Derby contenders) will smell the blood in the water.

Hey, we just saw the other division's undefeated champ with a sprinter profile go down last week on the stretch-out...