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Post draw the equalizer in Florida Derby

posted by Joel Cunningham on March 27, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Fierce Wind Hangs On in Sam F. Davis: (Photo by: Tom Cooley Photography)Fierce Wind Hangs On in Sam F. Davis: (Photo by: Tom Cooley Photography)

Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park has long been regarded as one of the top Kentucky Derby prep races in all the land and has a rich history of winners that have gone on to Derby glory. The last to do so was the beloved Barbaro in 2006, when the unbeaten colt parlayed a Florida Derby score into a breath-taking romp in the Run for the Roses five weeks later under the twin spires.

This year's cast features a competitive field of 12 in the 1 1/8-mile event, with perhaps the most intriguing horse having to replicate a feat only the late, great Barbaro was able to do in winning a couple of years ago. Big Brown, installed as the 3-1 favorite on the morning line off an impressive 12 ¾-length romp against allowance company earlier this month, drew dreaded post No. 12 in the contest, and if he were to win Saturday he would join Barbaro as the only horses to win a race at the nine-furlong distance from the 10-post out since the track was redone back in 2005.

Barbaro captured his Florida Derby from post No. 10, which obviously means there have been no horses to reach the winner's circle beyond that post. The reason for this is due largely in part to the fact there is such a short run into the first turn because of the way the gate is positioned in nine-furlong races at the newly configured Hallandale track, and as was evident from this year's running of the Fountain of Youth Stakes a month ago, getting good position out of the gate in such short amount of time before hanging a left-hand turn into the backstretch is a serious challenge. Many contenders in the Fountain of Youth lost all chance after incurring traffic trouble into the first turn, compromising the outcome of the race.

That said, Big Brown, who has been ultra-impressive in winning both lifetime starts by a combined 24 lengths, has history against him Saturday, and the son of Boundary will likely need to be used more than his connections would like early on just to get him out into the clear heading into that short run to the first turn.

Interesting enough, perhaps the top five challengers in the Florida Derby have all drawn the last five stalls in the gate, so what does that mean? Elysium Fields, fast-closing runner-up in the Fountain of Youth, breaks from post No. 8, followed by impressive allowance winner Hey Byrn, Grade 1 winner Majestic Warrior, the Todd Pletcher-trained Face the Cat and Big Brown. There isn't much that separates the five in terms of where each will break from, but a colt like Elysium Fields certainly won't be effected as much, as he expects to tuck in and save plenty of ground early.

But does the 10-hole-out jinx mean we can disregard anything from those posts? Maybe, but I wouldn't be so fast to automatically eliminate Majestic Warrior, Face the Cat and Big Brown. Majestic Warrior is the lone North American Grade 1 winner in the field and will be making his second start of the season after a much needed 3-year-old debut in the Louisiana Derby earlier this month, where the regally bred A.P. Indy colt made a big move on the far turn while racing wide before getting tired and flattening out late.

Majestic Warrior figures to get a sensible pace to run at Saturday, and if he can funnel in early after the break and manage a good trip down the backstretch, he has the class and late kick to be right there at the wire.

Face the Cat has been perfect at the meet in two starts and was recently privately purchased by Padua Stables and turned over to top trainer Pletcher. The Tale of the Cat colt was flattered when Nistle's Crunch, a colt he faces again in the Florida Derby after beating him in a January allowance race by four lengths, returned to easily win an allowance race earlier this month.

Face the Cat figures to send early and be part of the pace scenario in the Florida Derby. Big Brown could go right with him early, as both will be desperately looking for early position. Big Brown is the deserving favorite after showing flashes of brilliance way above what the rest of this field has shown to date, but his trip is a major concern. It is very easy to see him get used hard early and receive enough pace pressure to compromise his chances late.

Speaking of impressive runaway winners, Hey Byrn was won his last two local starts by a combined 20 ½ lengths and will take plenty of notice by the betting public. The son of Put It Back deservingly fits the bill as a top contender in the Florida Derby and can make his presence felt late if he can salvage a good trip early.

But not only the outside five must overcome less-than-ideal posts, as Fierce Wind, winner of last month's Sam F. Davis Stakes over eventual Tampa Bay Derby victor Big Truck, drew the rail in Saturday's key Derby prep, which is also far from ideal. Actually, the best drawn horses from posts 2-7 appear to be the outsiders in the race. That group of six - Smooth Air, Da' Tara, Peruvian champ Tomcito, Cool Gator, Nistle's Crunch and B B Frank - will inherit a bit of an equalizer Saturday – which only adds more intrigue.

Personally, I'm leaning towards bucking history – but not with Big Brown. While I think Big Brown just might be the best horse in the race, Majestic Warrior is a Grade 1 winner when he is right and gets a favorable setup, and I think he'll get a good setup in his second start off the shelf. I give him the slight edge at a fair price with the hope he can manage a good trip early.

But there is no doubt this year's renewal of the Florida Derby is plenty intriguing, especially after the post draw, and I could realistically see half of the field winning the race depending on the first few hundred yards of this grand and historical Derby prep.

Strap in for the beginning because it is likely to have a strong impact on the final outcome.

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Geronimo2123

03/28/2008 4:04 am

A couple of observations.

First, Barbaro is not the only horse to win at 9 furlongs from post 10 out since 2005 at GP. For You Reppo, last year on Feb. 4, 2007 from post 10 won an allowance race at 9 furlongs. So, it can be done. For You Reppo and Barbaro both have tactical speed, something BB seems to have in abundance.

Second, there have only been 11 races run at 9 furlongs from the 12 post. Compare that to the 184 that have been run there since the reconfiguration (according to DRF stats). In fact, only 27 have been run from post 10, 18 from post 11, and 11 from post 12. That is statistically insignificant of a total body of races (compared to 184) to draw any conclusions from. In fact, from the 8 post outward the number of races run at 9 furlongs goes from 98 all the way down to 11. That is a factor any handicapper would want to know, isn't it?

Third, there has never been a horse to win the Dubai World Cup from the outside in the 12 post, the same post Curlin has drawn, but the media pooh-poohs this and says that Curlin may well change all of this come this weekend. Indeed. As may Big Brown.

As someone interested in numbers, I find it telling that both horses drew a 12 in their grade 1 stakes race, although Curlin is certainly a proven commodity (while the jury is still out on BB). However, last year after only winning a maiden by 12 lengths and the Rebel (grIII) by 6, at this time Curlin was being hailed as the next superhorse and Derby winner.

The reality is that both horses are capable from winning outside, even in the 12 hole.
It is a "lucky draw" and a "challenge he will meet" for Curlin, while BB is "up against it" and has "drawn the coffin". If BB can run anywhere near the 22 and change, 45 and change and 1:09 and change before he drew off to win by 12 in this race, he will be long gone before they hit the 1/8 mile pole. But, the truth is that the first calls are always slower because of the short runup and the turn, but 23 or 24 is not out of the question. Interesting race from many angles for many runners.

The 12 post is winless in Dubai at the World Cup and here at GP going 9 panels. Its all in the way it is spun that makes that stat seem insignificant or the death blow.

chewy

03/28/2008 9:02 am

I don't now about the numbers, haven't even looked at the PPs for this race, but I do know that many of Majestic Warriors detractors say he's a one-turn horse. So, if that's the case, this track configuration (at this distance) could suit him.

I would be surprised if Big Brown didn't have someone up close to him pushing quick fractions, maybe that will be Hey Byrne.

Gimme Elysium Fields and Majestic Warrior; with some combination of Big Brown, Smooth Air, and Face the Cat underneath.

There's some pot-shot handicapping for you!! Ha Ha! Who needs stats?

joel

03/28/2008 9:10 am

Thanks for pointing out those statistics, Geronimo. I knew the data would likely not provide an appropriate sample due to the infancy of the new track configuration, so I didn't offer a quantitative analysis but rather a qualitative one.

I looked up For You Reppo's PPs and saw that he indeed won a maiden race from the 10-hole last year, obviously making him another horse to have conquered the dreaded outside draw along with Barbaro. But the Florida Derby is far from the non-winners he faced that day on a competition scale, and I do believe that drawing the 10-post outward against a quality field is a major disadvantage. It is a disadvantage at most racetracks, but it is really magnified at Gulfstream in my opinion due to the turn being right on top of the horses after the break out of the gate. It produces such race-altering issues as traffic trouble, wide trips, a false pace and the horses being unsettled longer at the beginning of a race than they normally would.

I wouldn't compare Curlin's situation in the Dubai World Cup to Big Brown's... Curlin is far more seasoned and the 12-hole is far less daunting over that course where there is a long run into a mock turn. Although I'm not willing to give Curlin the winner's share of $3.6 million on Saturday either just yet... he will earn it in that spot, as it's tougher than many think.

eaoa89

03/28/2008 9:48 am

Joel-
When I looked at the race, I too came up with Majestic Warrior but one thing bothers me (and no, I'm not getting involved in the post discussion) What worrys me is that he doesn't need to win the race to go to the Derby. Bill Mott is not training any of his top horses to win prep races-he understands what prep means, which means that we may not see their best until Derby Day. I did leave him on top, however, because I'm a regular at Arlington Park, and Rene Douglas only knows one way to ride- TO WIN! so if Warrior has a chance, Rene's desire to win will kick in-he can't help it!
I used Elysium Fields second, and Smooth Air 3rd (got a future on him at 159/1 and I think he'll at least need a third to get into the race)

joel

03/28/2008 11:18 am

eaoa,

I believe you are right about Mott not having his top 3yos fully cranked at this point in the season, but I also believe that for Majestic Warrior there is really an emphasis on him having close to a top effort Saturday... I really do... I know he likely doesn't need the graded earnings, but after he emptied out the last eight of a mile in New Orleans when running seventh, you sure would like to see him prove that after the layoff and transition into his 3yo season that he can still run with the best of his generation and compete at that level.

Like chewy said above, many do believe he is a late-running sprinter because that is what his dam was as a racehorse. I think he looks enough like an A.P. Indy should that he appears to have a two-turn frame and can handle a route of ground, but he has yet to prove that to anyone - including Mott most likely.

I think he clearly was in over his head last time out and came up dead short late while racing wide against an inside bias and dawdling pace scenario... I think that race did wonders in getting him close to his top conditioning for the Florida Derby, and if he can manage a clean trip and get that fast pace up front like I feel he'll get - then I believe the connections of Majestic Warrior feel he's cranked enough to win this late... I really do... at this point he must proves he belongs in the Derby picture from a quality standpoint, regardless of if he qualifies by graded earnings... this is likely his last chance to show his connections he belongs so it's very important... if he runs a well-beaten fifth his Derby dreams could be over - and frankly, they should be over in that scenario.

Big Brown will be tough if he gets a good trip... no question about it... if he gets smooth sailing then it could be lights out for the rest of the field coming off the far turn... but realistically, I feel like that is the only horse that can beat Majestic Warrior if he fires his best race.

barbeach

03/28/2008 11:45 am

Enough about the post draw. I agree with Geronimo on the statistical info, and I think it just doesn't matter. If a horse is good enough he should be able to overcome ANYTHING that places him at some kind of minor disadvantage. If BB or the Cat are good enough they should win from post 15.
Also, enough about Majestic Warrior. This horse is not that good. Sorry he is a grade 1 winner but come on, he beat two dueling speedballs in a 4 or 5 horse field. The thing is that race he won at Saratoga is for closers. It's the same race circular Quay won as a 2 year old and is set up for closers. Reason being 2 year olds who know nothing but speed stretch out to 7 furlongs for the first time, go 21 and 44 then have nothing left and a closer scoops them up late. If I had a closer who won a MSW at 2 at ELLIS PARK of all places I would put him in that race because I know I am going to get something out of it because I will pass the tiring one late. Bad race to judge a horse off of. He then runs into a 2 year old who knows nothing but speed but doesnt back up in War Pass (not a fan), and has no response, yeah he may have had foot issues but there are always excuses. I just think he is way behind the curve of these other 3 year olds and would have benefitted from a race a GP. I also believe what eaoa says about not needing earnings, HE WONT WIN. same thing as Court Vision, if you bet on him to win in FOY you were wasting your money. I predict a 5th place finish, Good Luck to all.

Cdpotato4

03/28/2008 12:00 pm

Play the Tampa 2 with Matz and Byrn

beebs4201

03/28/2008 12:14 pm

I would have loved to play Face the Cat in this field but I am throwing him and Big Brown both out for their post positions. I like either Tomcito or Fierce Wind to win this one. I like Elysium Fields, Smooth Air, Big Brown, or Face the Cat to pick up the pieces. I am playing a trifecta wheel 1,4 with 1,2,4,8,11,12 with 1,2,4,8,11,12

joel

03/28/2008 3:11 pm

barbeach:

A comment to this statement: "If a horse is good enough he should be able to overcome ANYTHING"

...I have NEVER been a big believer in this statement for many reasons... I, like you, am not a big fan of War Pass, but he was an unbeaten and untested champion prior to a couple of weeks ago ...for him to get beat like a drum and finish behind the entire field in the Tampa Bay Derby shows you that good horses can't overcome anything, as you suggest... they are living, breathing animals and there will always be obstacles... just look at how many cannot act over the Polytrack and other synthetic surfaces... there are valid excuses and reasoning much of the time.

I see your point on all comments about Majestic Warrior and I cannot argue with you on any of them... you could very well be correct. We'll see and learn more about him Saturday. For me, any son of A.P. Indy that has that classic look and develops enough early at two to win first time out at Saratoga from the one-hole and then come back and win a Grade 1 race is very impressive to me...

rimott

03/28/2008 4:02 pm

barbeach,

I'd say getting a foot injury is a pretty good excuse to run poorly in a race. if you look at his previous two starts, its obvious hes a good horse and the way he ran in the Champaign shows he was obviously not right that day. Anddd he was coming off of a six month layoff in the LA Derby. That's a very tough spot to come back in if you ask me. Did you even see Court Vision's race last time out? He was about 20 lengths back and closed very, very well to finish 3rd on a speed favoring track, off a layoff as well. Both horses got loads out of their last races.

barbeach

03/28/2008 4:58 pm

rimott,
yes I did see Court visions last race, and I can lay claim to being smart and not betting him to win. I knew that he was going to run the exact race he did. He wasnt going to win on a speed favoring track first up. He was meerly out to stretch his legs, or at least get a 3 furlong work in. Just not buying Majestic Warrior after being claimed Grade 1 winner when beating a four horse field. Stick to the sprints.
Joel,
I guess I kind of stand by my statement. When I wrote that earlier I had the vision of Afleet Alex almost falling down and running away with the Preakness in which he did overcome ANYTHING. But then again he wasnt good enough Derby day. I guess I shouldnt say anything because half the race they run is run by the man on their back. If Rose moves a little later he wins the Derby. I call this Human Error not Horse error. I think a bad post is not a legit excuse for a horse losing a race. I have lived in Australia where 14-18 horse races are not uncommon every week, where I have seen a horse have the 17 hole, be stuck 5 wide the entire race and still win because he was good enough. Some dont meet the bill. Horses in recent history have left from 18 in the Derby and ran respectable. Closing Arguement (2nd) and Brother Derek (4th) its all about how the race unfolds. I guess I shouldnt have said "Anything" maybe "Almost Anything" would have worked.

derbyme

03/28/2008 6:11 pm

Joel,

Sorry, I think Majestic Warrior is more likely to finish last than first.

barbeach,
Your over coming adversity statement has some Yogi Berra to it. If a horse is good enough, he will overcome challenges. "Good enough" is qualified only by its ability to win despite trouble. Thus if he's good enough to win it means he's good enough to win. Sounds good, doesn't say anything that couldn't be deduced by looking at the results. If Big Brown is "good enough" to win from the 12, then he was obviously "good enough". If not, then not, but it doesn't really matter unless you compare him to another who was "good enough". If he gets a wide trip and wins, he's miles the best.

BTW, if Cool Coal Man doesn't run in the FOY, Elysium Fields takes it by 5+ while going wide, and he's the favorite for the Derby over Pyro now.

On the plus side for Curlin and Big Brown is that they both tend to take wide turns anyway. Curlin, as such a huge animal (like Rags) likes to go wide. He's not really agile enough to cut through on the rail like Street Sense or Afleet Alex. Big Brown took the turn about 5-6 wide in his last to avoid any possible trouble. So he may be better being 5 wide than taking a golden rail.

rimott

03/28/2008 6:14 pm

barbeach,

I understand what you mean about both colts. But, in Southern California, there are regularly grade 1's with four to six horse fields. If you consider them "true grade 1 winners" then what is the difference if the grade 1 was at Saratoga?

patbateman

03/28/2008 7:18 pm

Joel, what if Majestic Warrior shows nothing tomorrow, should he even run in the Kentucky Derby? I think he should compete, but I'll have to watch before believing in his chances. I will mostly pass on the race and save my cash for the big Derby. I like Big Brown but not at the odds/post. How about Hey Byrn, that pedigree says Keyed Entry, Smokey Stover, etc., not really 1+1/4 or even 1+1/8 to me. Elysium Fields is hard to knock, if he improves at all he will be hard to beat. Big Brown could really make things interesting if he is legit

ihatepolytrack

03/28/2008 7:41 pm

8 over 1/2/4

derbyme

03/28/2008 9:08 pm

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP032808USA9.pdf need adobe acrobat. outsiders were somewhat outsiders, but...

barbeach

03/28/2008 11:04 pm

rimott,
In So Cal the small field stakes are usually for older more seasoned horses, not those only having one race under their belt. I think the only reason that race came up so short was because nobody wanted any part of a speed duel with the two favorites in that race. I just dont think you can gauge a Derby horse off a 2 year old "grade 1" race with only 4 horses in it, two of which only ran about 6 furlongs not 7.

joel

03/28/2008 11:31 pm

barbeach-

I don't think you are really comparing apples with apples when comparing wide posts in European or Australian racing (at least most anyway) with American racing because our style is so much different.. A) we won't load 24 horses in a gate like they will in those countries... and B) the pace scenario and course configurations are so different that the dynamic of the race is defined differently...

I think it makes sense that drawing wide in most of those foreign races is not nearly as big of an issue... but that's just my logical thinking on the subject.

joel

03/28/2008 11:39 pm

patbateman,

If Majestic Warrior lays another proverbial egg tomorrow then I can't see how the connections would feel motivated to run him in the Derby... one bad race like his last off a layoff is excusable, but two in back-to-back starts right before the Derby is not... I say they pass on the Derby if he runs poorly. But I really think we'll see a much improved effort... he may not win, but I think he makes a big enough late run to legitimately earn a shot at the Derby.

As for Big Brown, I do think he is the real deal, but its so hard to say of such a lightly raced horse that has never been challenged in the stretch... he'll face a big test from post No. 12 tomorrow and if he passes he could very well be one of your strong favorites for the Kentucky Derby...

Hey Byrn has a shot because he is in such stellar form and obviously loves Gulfstream... He gets his brilliance from his sire Put It Back but clearly gets the ability to stay from his damside... I think he has some quality in a down 3yo year like this one, and he could certainly make his prescense felt in here late...

As for Elysium Fields, he is a very popular pick in here off his last performance, but it still bothers be that he lost a pair of Laurel Park maiden races and a Calder maiden race in three starts to begin his career... I'm still not sold that he is genuinely top class.

Geronimo2123

03/29/2008 6:00 am

Joel,

Actually, I was also throwing in the 10 post stat on For You Reppo to give you a little extra hope about MW from the 10 post. Believe me, I am well aware that For You Reppo did not beat stakes level comp. that race. In fact, next race out he got his clock cleaned by Hard Spun in the Lane's End Stakes in March of 2007, as he was no match at all for that one. I do think FYR liked the outside, however.

And you raise a good point about Elysium Fields. He was actually beat by Visonaire once there(LRL)and ridden by Mario Pino twice. I am sure he gave the horse every chance to win. Nothing against Laurel, I used to live near Laurel in AA County, Maryland, but usually top turf horses develop there, not usually the dirt ones.

I think BB may be up against it with the post, but I think IF KD can use his speed to get a good position going into the 1st turn he could be a factor. I also think MW may be a good closing miler, but we shall see. I cannot toss BB, and also like Fierce Wind, Tomcito and I would play underneath with Hey Byrn, Elysium Fields and Smooth Air. If Pletcher FTC in 11 can get clear he may do damage, but perhaps he will tuck in behind BB if that one breaks well.

barbeach

03/29/2008 11:01 pm

Did we all get our answer??????? Thanks to all who didn't like Big Brown and the "hype", you helped contribute to nice tri and super payouts for me. Get used to the hype because it is hear to stay. If this horse stays healthy look for fireworks at Churchill. Lets hear what all the doubters have to say now.

patbateman

03/30/2008 8:27 pm

Yeah someone on this board helped me commit to betting on Big Brown yesterday after I initially was scared off by the post. I appreciate that. Hopefully the next 2 weeks produce some more big efforts to make this derby more wide open.

Joel,

I guess Elysium Fields won't have the cash to get into the race, that's a shame I liked that horse too. Big Brown could be the freak of 2008. Majestic Warrior, I don't know but he will have great odds on Derby day if he runs, maybe he could sneak into the superfecta and sweeten the pot considerably, but I have strong doubts about his win potential at a mile and a quarter. Maybe Denis of Cork's odds improve due to the shifting hype that will no doubt occur.

patbateman

04/06/2008 2:48 pm

Joel, looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the Arkansas Derby, it should be right in your wheelhouse.