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With the major preps in the books, lets look at the contenders

posted by Joel Cunningham on April 15, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Colonel John takes down Santa Anita Derby: (Photo by: Benoit)Colonel John takes down Santa Anita Derby: (Photo by: Benoit)

Well, here we are. The major prep races are over and done, and the only thing left for the large majority of this year's contenders between now and the Derby is practice. We've seen everything there is to see in real race action, which is most of the information needed to figure out the real contenders. So who are they? ...Here is one man's take on the 10 best chances to wear the roses:

10) Z Humor - He's a grinder and always shows up. The distance won't be a concern and his speed figures are very competitive with this year's group. His lack of punch in the stretch has cost him in the win column, but he has kept good company and can very well crash the superfecta - or even trifecta - at 40-1+ with some racing luck.

9) Court Vision - He has as nice a progression as any 3-year-old, having closed nicely when at a disadvantage in the Fountain of Youth and also closed well enough in the Wood Memorial over a Aqueduct track he didn't run particularly well over last year in a winning effort in the Remsen. We know he likes Churchill Downs, and his connections are as good as they come with Gomez, Mott and WinStar & IEAH Stables. The distance will be ideal for him and his closing style should also suit. His biggest problem is simply that he has yet to run fast and he needs to prove he can be more than a horse that clunks up for minor shares against the crop's best.

8) War Pass - While the jury is still out on whether he'll run in the Derby or not, the champ gets this ranking alone on his quality. He clearly didn't handle the Tampa track and trip, and his Wood was brave while reinforcing the thought that he is out of his comfort zone racing beyond a mile. He does not fit the Derby profile very well, but his raw talent makes you wonder how far he could go on the lead if he was ignored early in the race. He is certainly back flying under the radar now.

7) Z Fortune - Yet another that has run fast, shown class and can handle the distance. His three-race losing streak has made him a forgotten horse, but his Arkansas Derby was a good race considering he bobbled at the start and raced wide from a wide post on a track where inside speed was holding. Albarado is riding confidently and this gray colt can absolutely hit the board at 30-1+ odds.

6) Adriano - Big, good-looking chestnut has a lovely pedigree and a wonderful classic profile overall. His dirt starts have all come with reasonable excuses and he seems like the late-developing sort that is due to improve leaps and bounds. The Churchill Downs configuration and dirt track should be a good fit, and he has already gotten a big headstart over the competition, as he's already been training over the local surface in Louisville. The biggest wish is that he had one more dirt start under his belt.

5) Denis of Cork - Needs to get in, but is absolutely a contender if he does - and it appears as though he will. He has the talent to be mentioned with the top colts in this class and his closing kick would make him a handful in the stretch of the Derby. He got his start at Churchill Downs and it is his "home track". Carroll is a very capable horseman and Leparoux has enjoyed as much success as any rider in big races at Churchill Downs the last couple of years. He's a big player.

4) Pyro - His Blue Grass flop on Polytrack was understandable and predictable to a degree. Would have liked to see some sort of a move but I was not surprised that he failed to act on it. We know he loves regular dirt and excelled at Fair Grounds, which is very similar to Churchill. My concerns are: He is a Pulpit and is a little hot-blooded like many of that stallion's progeny, so how he'll handle the Derby experience is a question. Another thing to consider is whether he truly wants 10 furlongs or not, and it would not be a huge stretch to figure that a son of Pulpit could be at his best up to nine furlongs and under. Judging by his stride, I could see him as the type whose late kick gets flatter the further he goes.

3) Tale of Ekati - This one is a better colt than he is being given credit for, and he figures to be one of the biggest overlays in the field. I think it's clear that a line needs to be drawn through his Louisiana Derby debacle, and his Wood Memorial was a better performance than critics rated it in my opinion. He raced rather wide and was never far away from War Pass, who fired a big race on the lead over an Aqueduct main track that was favoring speed all day. While they did come home slowly, I was impressed with Tale of Ekati's determination to run down a loose champion. His 2-year-old foundation is rock solid, and his pedigree is stellar, with a nice mix of brilliance on the top side with Tale of the Cat and a classic female family with stamina influences Sunday Silence and Nijinsky II. Tagg goes out of his way to speak of his quality, and Prado is an asset in the saddle for the world's biggest race.

2) Big Brown - He is without a doubt the horse to beat from the standpoint that he is simply the fastest colt in the race. He has been brilliant to date and you'll get no argument from me that he is a clear-cut first in the division right now over this entire crop. But his connections will be keeping him in Florida reportedly as long as possible and shipping him into Louisville late, and I'm not sure that's comforting for a horse that is so inexperienced and has never raced out of hot weather, among other things. There will be a lot thrown at this horse in his Derby experience, and he'll have to be extra good to overcome the history going against him. His three wins have been so easy that he is also not battle-tested, and he'll very likely have to fend off several serious challenges in this race. You also have the foot problems to worry about. His connections are red-hot right now, but there are just too many concerns to love his chances at what will be short odds.

1) Colonel John - The bottomline is that he has the best overall Derby profile of them all this year. He is a classy, push-button closer who loves to win and has a pedigree that screams 1 1/4 miles, being by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow out of a Turkoman mare. He has the benefit of a strong 2-year-old foundation and has progressively improved. His races have been fast enough and competitive enough to harden him, but they haven't been too tough to knock him out. The only question is obviously how he'll handle the dirt for the first time after six career starts on synthetic surfaces, but with all of the top-class dirt breeding it should be a non-issue. Nakatani is a good aggressive fit to ride and Harty has been here before with top 3-year-olds as an assistant trainer.

I think Colonel John is the horse ...for now anyway ...we still have three weeks to go...

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reigs52

04/15/2008 3:23 am

Sounds good. I'm with you on Colonel John, although Corey Nakatani remains an enigma. Why no Breeders Cup rides last year?
Having seen both Tiznow and Colonel John run at Santa Anita, I'm a fan of both, particularly Tiznow.
Chris McCarren's account of his second Classic win was classic.
"Tiznow didn't seem to have it that day," said McCarren, "just kind of galloping along. At the top of the stretch, Sakhee, the Prix de Arc winner, blew by us.
"I thought we were beat, no way we could catch Sakhee. But that son of a gun. He thought about if for a second, then picked it up and took off after Sakhee, catching him just before the wire. What a horse."
If Colonel John has enough of his daddy's rectitude, I'm looking for him to run big at Churchill.
I was hoping also that Pyro could carry his race a distance of ground, but Pulpits are limited.
I'll take Tale of Ekati, Big Brown and War Pass on the bottom side.

chewy

04/15/2008 7:21 am

Joel,

I agree with your top 2... What do you think of Monba?

I would sub in Monba for Denis of Cork. Both won on the CD surface but I like who Monba's faced compared to Denis of Cork - Pletcher had him all over the US - KY, FL, CA - and he faced the numero uno Colonel John. It is hard to overlook that FOY clunker.

I also like Visionaire closing on all of these front runners to pick up a piece late.

What do you think of the filly's chances if they decide to throw her into the mix?

joel

04/15/2008 8:39 am

chewy,

I am not a fan of Eight Belles running against the boys... I like the filly and think she makes for a powerful 1-2 punch with stablemate Proud Spell in the Oaks, but she is not Derby material in my humble opinion. I can certainly understand why they are entertaining the idea, but I don't believe it is the prudent move.

Great points on Monba and Visionaire, both would have likely been in my Top 12. It's hard not to like a legitimate Pletcher colt and Monba has won at CD and can certainly get the distance. I liked the tactical speed he showed in the Blue Grass to lay close and the way he outgamed his classy stablemate. It certainly would not surprise me at all to see Monba on the board in the Derby.

Visionaire is a horse I feel will really be at his physical limits going 10 furlongs. His pedigree is more of a middle distance one and the horses he has beaten in his winning efforts were not exactly stellar fields. I love his trainer and think he'll be given the best shot if he's good enough, but at this distance I'll make him beat me.

beebs4201

04/15/2008 9:58 am

Right now Colonel John is my top horse as well but that is till subject to change. To tell you the truth, there are not many other horses that I am even considering. I don't like the fact that Big Brown will not have a workout at Churchill. There is way too much speed in the race for me to take War Pass. If Pyro gets to Churchill and works like a monster then I may give him a shot. I just hope Asmussen doesn't keep him at Keeneland.

patbateman

04/15/2008 11:14 am

Joel, it seems like a Colonel John might vie for favoritism at this point. Good to see the list it should be a great race once again.

Hey what do you expect to see as far as the works go for Tail of Ekati leading up to the Derby? Tale of Ekati is such an enigma and that track did look to be tiring at Aqueduct, but the time was so bad I just can't seem to reconcile it all in my mind. The horse looks great, but I don't know if he's fast.

Denis of Cork is really the only major disagreement I have with your list. He has only shown that he can run at a mile, and I just think he'll be better later in the year.

Colonel John looks good but like your suspicions on Pyro, but not based on his stride necessarily, I am not sure Colonel John will have the late surge fully intact with the added distance. And the much added distance to the leaders when he kicks it into gear after the turn will be something new for him, and he will have to sustain his run a whole lot longer than he has so far to win.

justin9976

04/15/2008 1:57 pm

I would say Tomcito's run was respectable given the long layoff he had. He finished 12 and a half lengths back from BB whom everyone has been talking about as if he's the next Man of War.

I'm interested to hear other's thoughts on Court Vision. I feel in love with the horse after his two wins in 2007. He looked fairly average in the Fountain of Youth, very green but closed well. Is he just too slow? I still think he has a better shot at winning the Derby then War Pass, as he's got the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter. This field is definitely wide open. Big Brown as a 2 or 3 to one favorite off 3 races?!?! Give me a break. He may win, but he's going to have all kinds of company on May 5th. I would say given Gayego's performance over the weekend on dirt, Colonel John is the one to beat.

joel

04/15/2008 3:47 pm

beebs,

Don't worry about Pyro staying at Keeneland... they probably already have him over at Churchill... no doubt Steve will train him in Louisville if you look at the past few years of how he's managed his 3yo Derby colts.

eaoa89

04/15/2008 8:10 pm

Joel-
Of course this changes on a daily basis but... Here's today's top 10

1.) Bob's Blackjack- Cushion to dirt, doesn't need the lead but may not get in?

2.) Monba- Unlike others had LEGITIMATE excuses for dud in foy (Cut leg, breathing problems which have been corrected) Has CD win and should get the distance

3.) War Pass-got what he needed out of Wood

4.) Colonel John- caught track which favored his style last, I thought BBJ was the best horse in SA derby

5.) Z Humour- my "gut feeling horse" for the gimmix

6.) Big Brown-may end up best of bunch career wise, but 3 starts concerns me.

7.) Tale of Ekati- Did win the Wood so can't leave out

8.) Pyro- can't accept 10th place finish no matter the track.

9.) Tomicito- Closes for a piece?

10.) Recapture the Glory (if other speed doesn't get out well)

ryanmoseley

04/15/2008 8:37 pm

I think any list which includes Bob Black Jack or Z Fortune MUST include Gayego. He clearly can rate and he's a big strong guy, just the type to do well in the Derby and at Churchill in general. Not to mention that he beat both of them last time he faced them.

I think Court Vision and Z humor are tosses. Big fat hairy tosses! Court Vision isn't even in the top 5 closers! He's WAY too slow. Z humor was a decent 2 year old and what now? Notihng. He runs his race and finishes between 10th and 15th. Guaranteed.

I think it'll be a mixture of the Cali horses and toss in Big Brown and Pyro. Sentimental pick for Tomcito if he makes it.

ryanmoseley

04/15/2008 8:40 pm

Oh yeah...Monba's 2 year old win at Churhill = moderate and workmanlike only. His BG performance showed me he loves polytrack. Not saying he can't grind out for a minor on May 3 but I think he has a lot to prove. I'll let him beat me.

joel

04/15/2008 8:42 pm

eaoa89,

I love your style! If Bob Black Jack can pull it off for you then you will be handsomely rewarded for backing him... I do think he'll get into the race and I hope he does for your sake!

The Derby is unlike any other race and the level of uncertainty and uncontrollable variables to the handicapper is immense... you at least have a horse with the tactical speed to dodge most of the trouble, and taking a horse that will be 35-1+ is not at all bad practice in the Derby (especially this one) because your getting great value for a race that is very, very hard to pick with so much luck being involved.

Good luck!

joel

04/15/2008 8:48 pm

ryan,

I can see why people would have an interest in Gayego, but I really have a problem with Gilded Times handling classic distances...

As for Tomcito, I'm not a big fan... we'll learn a little more about him in the Lexington Stakes - where he'll have a big chance with his deep-closing style and his pedigree (Street Crys have excelled over the Poly)

derbyme

04/15/2008 10:30 pm

eaoa,

I hear you on Bob Black Jack if he gets in. He's brilliant, he's game, he can relax and rate, and he'll move forward on dirt. He's one of the few horses fast enough to win. After watching races for weeks and weeks now on the new SA surface, I keep thinking that if Smarty Jones were prepping out there, he'd have run the same way BBJ did. A good dirt horse doesn't have much of a shot against a good snynth horse out there. Then Keeneland is a whole other Cracker Jack box. But let's stop talking him up before someone labels him a "wiseguy horse".

Pyro = Circular Quay. Joel hit the nail on the head, he doesn't have particularly long legs, but has a long body, running low to the ground like a greyhound. His stride reminds me of speedster Lost in the Fog, still, I think Pulpit breeding doesn't eliminate him, and his best race makes an impact. Put it this way, I could see him ruining Big Browns Triple Crown attempt ala Birdstone (HUGE clunker in the Lane's End as potential Derby fave).

Can't stress enough how important it is to be fast enough. 14 of the last 16 derby winners had a 100+ Beyer as a 3yo before the derby, 13 in their last prep, 12 had more than once, 8 did it in their previous 2. Repeat, half of the last 16 Derby winners came into the race off back to back 100+ efforts. There is only one horse that satisfies this criteria: Big Brown! Gayego has 2 such efforts, and 1 in his last prep. Z Fortune and Recapture are the only others to post 100+ in their last efforts. BBJ has the highest number of the year, a 109.

derbyme

04/15/2008 10:43 pm

If Pyro is a tad short legged, then Tomcito has Giselle Bundtchen legs. He is one leggy colt which adds to his awkward proportioning. His hind area is disproportionately small which might explain his poor gate speed, but his chest is massive. I have photos from the FL Derby and thought maybe he's skinny and out of shape, but the photo on this site shows the same thing. I will say, despite his awkward build and goofy action, he has enormous strides and covers ground with ease. His stride is like Ichiro Suzuki's swing, odd looking but truly effective. Big Brown might be more of a Big Papi, demonstrating huge power, but not necessarily effortless. Pyro might be a Derek Jeter type, quick inside, hard to put away.

ryanmoseley

04/15/2008 10:58 pm

To: Joel,

Derbyme, thanks for mentioning Smarty Jones who is by Elusive Quality, a sprinter/miler horse and sire. Smarty is the only one of his progeny to be a high class mile and 1/4 horse. It happens all the time. Horses are individuals. Sakhee the Arc winner in France sired a Champion European sprinter, Peintre Celebre has also done the same. They said Secretariat couldn't stay and look what he did to the Belmont field. I don't think Gayego will win but I don't think he'll be one of the ones who is "gasping for air" at the quarter pole due to his breeding. He looks like a 2 turn horse and he was finishing at Oaklawn. He would surely have been right there at the end of the SA Derby too based on past form. BBJ has just as many distance limitations based on pedigree but hey, I like him too!

Some pedigree notes:

Gayego

Gayego is inbred to Bold Ruler. His maternal great grand sire is Arts and Letters, a Belmont winner, whose sire Ribot ( who he is also inbred to on his dam side) is a major distance influence. Follow this link to see all the distance influences in his pedigree! http://www.pedigreequery.com/gayego I also saw Gilded Time win the BC Juvenile ( 2 turns) live at Gulfstream. Beautiful horse. If not for injuries I think he could have won good races up to a mile and 1/8.

Bob Black Jack

Dosage index of 4.33!! A traditional no no for Derby purists who don't give a second look to any horse with a 4.0 or higher. Still there is Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer blood around on his dam side. Don't get me wrong. I like this horse. I just think you shouldn't toss Gayego on pedigree.

ernietoby

04/16/2008 8:46 am

Joel,

Regarding Tagg's plans for Tale of Ekati, I believe they are already in Kentucky. Quite a turn from the usual Tagg tactic of showing up last minute to avoid the fray. I think its a sign of a few things - 1. Taggs got a better string of horses that can take some purse money in Keeneland in the weeks leading up to the Derby. 2. Tale of Ekati needs to train from the gate a few times to nail the break. 3. After a few more goes at it, Tagg has come to terms with the Derby hoopla.

I really like Tale of Ekati's progression. Belmont maiden, summer stock of baby classics at Saratoga, then some fall majors - no ducking, each one tougher than the one before. The Louisanna Derby was his first race back after a lay off - I love the horse and did not expect him to win. Tagg figured out how to set him up to win and proved it in the Wood. Now they're in Kentucky, getting settled in early. How do the guys in the form say it, "all systems go"

jharvat

04/16/2008 9:23 am

Start looking for your Giacomo, Charismatic or Sea Hero out of this bunch. None of those three Derby winners posted a 100+ Beyer prior to the Derby and none of them won in their final prep before the Derby. Thats what kind of year it is. Very average 3 year old crop and wide open. All the hyped horses all have knocks or have been knocked. First it was War Pass who was the second coming, and we have now seen his true colors - no way he gets a 1 1/4 mi. Then it was Pyro - talent alone should get place you higher than 10th in your final Derby prep. Now it is Big Brown that is the second coming off three preps where he was not tested in the least bit. I'll pass there too. What about the horse who ran second to Big Brown - Smooth Air? Horse is as consistant as they come. And dont toss Z Fortune. I've seen it before. Trainer has two horses in the Derby and everyone is hyping one, and forgetting the other. Anyone remember Baffert w/ Indian Charlie and Real Quiet?

jharvat

04/16/2008 9:28 am

Correction: Charismatic did win his final Derby prep. Point is, I can see this years Derby winner being a horse that is going to pay large and make people scratch their heads a bit after the race is over. Actually I am already scratching my head

barbeach

04/16/2008 10:29 am

Joel,
Who added Eight Belles to the contenders at the top of this page? Or should I say, What is Larry Jones thinking? This filly is good, I'll give her that but she is not even the top filly. I am hoping and begging that she goes in the Oaks so I can win by betting against her. She has beat suspect fillies and hasn't really shown anything. If any filly should go in it should be her stablemate Proud Spell or Bsharpsonata both consistent and impressive. If she does go in the Derby I predict no better than a 12th place finish because she is obviously going to beat one colt because that's the way the race will unfold. I think the biggest knock against her is her jockey, Ramon dominguez. Can anyone name a classic race he has won other than on Better Talk Now? (Sorry I think he won on Invasor in his first race in the US) I had the Afleet Alex-Scrappy T exacta years ago and I wanted to jump into the TV and knock him off his horse for almost ruining it. He has such an eratic stretch-riding style, with his big winding whip. I think the only reason he wins in NY is because he rides for the best trainers. Go back to Maryland.

As for the Derby, the fastest horse will win, GO Big Brown!!!!!!!!!!

jharvat

04/16/2008 11:00 am

I really think Smooth Air has a nice chance of taking this Derby. He ran a great second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, and has never finished out of the money in 7 starts. I like the fact they are shipping him straight to Churchill now, so he will be on the grounds for over 2 weeks. If Big Brown is as great as everyone says, and runs into problems in the Derby, and Smooth Air runs the same way he did in the Florida Derby, then why not? I believe the Florida Derby was the fastest of all the preps at 1.48. Here's a nod for Smooth Air at a nice price....

Cdpotato4

04/16/2008 12:03 pm

Well...it is simply up for grabs, so you have to do something to narrow down your contenders. Here is my take on it:

Toss the ones who have only 2 preps this year (yes, yes, yes I know SS won last year with 2 preps, but I don't think any of these are of that calibar)
BIG BROWN
COLONEL JOHN
COURT VISION
SALUTE THE SARGE
TALE OF EKATI
TOMCITO
MONBA
RECAPTURETHEGLORY

Toss the ones who didn't prep last in April (yes, yes, yes I know Barbaro, again these horses are not of the same calibar)
BIG BROWN
SMOOTH AIR
ADRIANO

Toss those who ran in the Wood
WAR PASS

You are left with BIG TRUCK, BLACKBERRY ROAD, BOB BLACK JACK, COOL COAL MAN, DENIS OF CORK, EL GATO MALO, PYRO, VISIONAIRE, YANKEE BRAVO, Z FORTUNE, and COWBOY CAL to name the most likely.

A lot of these won't get in and I don't think they can win anyways so I'll toss them now
BLACKBERRY ROAD
DENIS OF CORK
EL GATO MALO
YANKEE BRAVO

Now I'll toss others based on head-to-head competition
VISIONAIRE
Z FORTUNE
BOB BLACK JACK

That leaves me with PYRO, COWBOY CAL, AND GAYEGO

Toss Cowboy Cal because he has no chance whatsoever

AND THERE YOU HAVE IT, GAYEGO AND PYRO

ryanmoseley

04/16/2008 12:56 pm

Where did you toss Cool Coal Man?

hossgnat

04/16/2008 12:57 pm

Joel,

Solid Top 10, nothing to quibble about.

I'm even with you on Denis of Cork. But how do you consider his chances to qualify based on earnings to be likely? The various scenarios look rather grim in my estimation. The cutoff last year was around $120k but this year it seems just about anyone with enough earnings is at least toying with the notion of a Derby start.

As for Tale of Ekati, I read somewhere that Prado has ruled him out and will choose between Adriano and Monba. I know it's fashionable to dismiss the handicapping abilities of jockeys and their agents but that decision must give Tale of Ekati backers pause.

hossgnat

04/16/2008 1:13 pm

Quick follow-up: It was just announced that Prado will ride Adriano. I liked Adriano a lot and now he moves up into my top 3.

jharvat

04/16/2008 1:30 pm

I'm tossing Pyro. I dont care. No way he got anything out of that 10th place finish. Which really sets him back for the Derby in my mind. The worst a Derby winner has ran (out of the last 20 Derby winners) in his final prep race prior to the Derby is 4th. Asmussen can say all he wants but I dont think that horse has what it takes....I am looking for value at a price in this Derby. And I think Smooth Air and Z Fortune offer it.

kdiggi

04/16/2008 2:40 pm

Anyone tossing Pyro may completely wrong. It's not about where a horse finishes before entering the derby. I believe that War Pass didn't win his last two because there is no need to push him and run out his gas tank before hitting the derby gates.
Bottom line, this year is going to be one of the most star studded Kentucky Derby's that we may ever see. That's why I played most of the horses I liked throughout the trail leading to the Derby, because even when it looks like a horse should win the derby, someone like Giacuomo, who I had bet that year.

jharvat

04/16/2008 3:19 pm

War Pass didnt win his last two because he was not good enough, period.....As far as Pyro is concerned, its one thing to not beat your horse up in his last race before the Derby, but its another to finish an uninspired 10th. You must get something out of every race leading up to the Derby. Pyro got nothing out of that race in my opionion. How far does that set him back leading to the Derby? That means the last race he got anything from was the Louisiana Derby - how long ago? Toss.

mike barker

04/16/2008 5:10 pm

Pyro won for Fun off a 4 month layoff one race isnt gonna matter as far as him being fit..Street Sense only had what 2 preps i think..

derbyme

04/16/2008 5:14 pm

jharv,

Agree on War Pass. He did have a reason to win his last 2, he was undefeated. Zito said he was as nervous before the Wood as any of his Derbies. Disagree on the fact that this year's edition is destined to fall apart for a slow horse. If Big Brown had one more race this year after the Derby, he'd satisfy all the rules, but would squeezing an extra race make his chances in the Derby better or worse? I think worse. Big Brown is really the only horse in the field that stacks up with past winners on numbers, and I won't hold the fact that he couldn't squeeze another race in against him.

joel

04/16/2008 5:21 pm

ryammoseley,

I am well aware of Smarty Jones and I know that these horses are individuals and can outrun their pedigrees and I see it regularly. But when you are forecasting the outcome of a race like the Derby where distance is a big aspect of it, you do not have access to the answers before hand - so you have to go with your convictions as a handicapper and use the best formula you have.

I like Gayego and his trainer and I think the horse is potentially fast enough to compete. But I have trouble getting around the fact that he is a son of a sprint-oriented sire in Gilded Time and out of a sprint-oriented broodmare sire in Lost Code... I just don't see him excelling at 10 furlongs and you have to make stands somewhere because you can't like all 20 horses that load into the gate.

Your point is well taken though, and I can see a lot of positives in Gayego to respect that pick.

joel

04/16/2008 5:46 pm

Welcome KrimsonKat!

Great post, by the way... I think most of what you state in your post is very good practice, especially the way you handicap races... there is no doubt that people don't use physical presence of horses on race day enough in their handicapping. It is a very important element for me and more people need to learn how to watch a horse in the post parade, paddock, etc. to be able to identify the ones that look good, average or bad.

Studying the Derby - or any race - on paper in advance is obviously the most important and most popular thing, but watching how weather effects the race (rain, etc.), watching how the track is playing (biases, etc.) and understanding how the horses should physically look and act on race day are a few crucial handicapping tools that often aren't used.

Nice post!

tracmonster

04/16/2008 8:31 pm

People compare horses and Beyers...which I dont understand(for example Big Brown has a 106 and Colonel john has a 95 and they ran the same time and both in Grade 1's)...I once heard that time only counts if youre in prison...meaning Tale of Ekati's 1:52 may be just as good as BB's 1:48 and change...however....War Pass smashed Tale of Ekati in the Breeders Cup but Ekati got him back in the Wood.....maybe Ekati's getting better and war pass isnt.....my point is...until horses actually meet each other its difficult to say who's best....but I like Col. Johns style for The derby.....hope this all makes sense....push the all button

FASTLANE

04/16/2008 8:39 pm

First blog I think I've eve seen wheresomeone admits to loving a Cali horse. I do too. I've loved Col. John since Nov.19th to be exact. :) Still didn't think he was better than filling out my trifecta until the SA Derby. Love the Smooth Air angle and Gayego. This year does look like a price.

I haven't even narrowed down my A, B, picks below 5 right now. Still one of the things bugging me is Prado chooses Adraiano? What is everyone's thoughts. Motion is a
"hot"trainer for sure and I'm not taking anything away from the horse...just trying to decide how big a decision that is and what do I get out of it. I respect Prado a lot. Would love to see Gomez or Bejarano jump on Tale of Ekati or Monba though. Let me know....

jhall13

04/16/2008 9:23 pm

Big Brown has talent but his last race was overshadowed by a later race that day. A horse beat Big Brown's time and posted a track record. This horse was a good horse but not the class of a Derby Horse. My opinion is that the lack of experience he may hit the board like Curlin did last year but will not win. I do not like his pedigree in that the lack of durability is an issue. I hope the public bets him to win because I will play another.

joel

04/16/2008 9:57 pm

Speaking of jockeys, let the Derby version of Musical Chairs begin:

Prado chooses Adriano, which leaves Monba and Tale of Ekati open...
I'm hearing Dominguez is leaning to picking up Monba...
So what about Eight Belles if Dominguez chooses Monba?...
Will Tagg go back to Eibar Coa for Tale of Ekati?...
Also, a thick rumor is going around that Gomez could jump on Pyro...
So who would take Court Vision then?

Get ready for some good-ole-fashion Derby musical chairs the next week or so

patbateman

04/16/2008 10:04 pm

Wow, yeah I didn't think Gomez would want to be stuck on Court Vision considering he'll be about 50-1 on derby day. OR should be.

barryrmitchell

04/16/2008 10:55 pm

Tiznow won the 2000 Breeders Cup as a three year old, and now his sibling Colonel John will duplicate the victory.

The sport telecast will show his daddy victory and Colonel John victory as the replay,

Me, I will be taking back the moment as usual.

Can I have another Mint Julip please! Yummy Yum.

Oh I just spilled my drink on somebody, I so sorry, how can I pay you back for the careless act on my part. Let me buy you another mint julip, Thank you he replied, what your name?

Scripe he replied,

I bump the guy again and spilled the drink.

slot33

04/16/2008 11:34 pm

Guess I'll weigh in. Like Colonel John best. Nice foundation and progression of races. He raced on Dec. 22 so that's a little over one week shy of Jan.1. So the 3 prep at 3 requirement - he meets it for me. Then his next 2 races were at 1 1/8... also good. As far as the synthetic to dirt issue... with Tiznow/Turkoman dam sire... don't believe its an issue. Feel he'll like the dirt and relish the 1 1/4. Will it hinder his closing ability?... not sure but don't think so. Like the way he can track 5-7 lengths off if need be, then kick it in. I hope Nakatani retains the mount, like the way he rides CJ and feel he'll be patient. Yes, know he's 0-13 but this is his guy to get off the schneid (sorry, don't know how to spell that one). Like the way Harty is prepping him into the race. 3 works... 1 of them at CD... and move to CD about 2 weeks out. I won't get too much into the Beyers... as I think there's a synthetic-West Coast bias. CJ's SA Derby gets a 95? Honestly, should have been given a 100 at minimum.

So my son who likes CJ also and is a very good handicapper is telling me he has a nagging feeling that the SA Derby took something out of the horse. That he was used too hard to get the win. Its true Nakatani really got after him with the whip... but the horse galloped out strong for at least another half mile. Also, I watched the replay of the race several times and around the far turn (its hard to see) CJ got shuffled back and slowed noticeably (it cost him momentum) and then he was dropped inside and moved back outside and exploded. I don't feel it took too much out of the horse but we'll see.

Okay, gone on enough about my top pick. The only other horse I like for the win is Z Fortune so I'll leave it there.

paul3249

04/17/2008 12:50 am

I'm sticking with Pyro because he never
looked tired in any of his races. So,
he should be ready to cleanup at KD.
Colonel John beat El Gato Malo, enough
said. I'll be betting El Gato Malo for
years to come, he is a great horse...so
CJ must be supreme. My bets will have
Pyro and CJ for sure.

khemospirit

04/17/2008 8:57 am

As pyro was entering the paddick last April 12 prior to the race, I said firmly to my husband Pyro is not going to do well today because his back left leg has a hitch in it which I saw as he was walking towards the gate. To me it was subtle just a hair of a catch. Came true didn't it. We run 28 horses on our farm. I am generally the one who calls the health of the animals -mainly horses- ie. breathing differences, snake bites. The next morning as the dog came out of his crate, I said he was sick. He was. I also run and sometimes you have something wrong but it dosen't show but you know it and under stress it intensifies.
I hope he is checked out well which I am sure he is. I needed to mention this somewhere.
Khemospirit

ernietoby

04/17/2008 9:47 am

Concur - Great Blog! Everyone needs to throw the theories up on the wall and take the shots. Helps seperate derby contenders from heart strings.

Comments on past posts:

Barbeach: Amen. Speaking for all Afleet Alex fans, Ramon is lucky the horse didnt go down. When do we get to talk about the sons of Afleet Alex in this forum anyway...'09 or '10?? (ever?)

Cdpotato4: Big Truck also missing, not eliminated...maybe the quetion will be who does Coa take.

KrimsonKat: Great entry. I belive all of this years wagers must be held until the paddock and post parade. I have prebooked in the past on paper-capping but have had to sprint to OTB at the last minute when I saw BlueGrassCat (tossed early due to Ramon) and Curlin (non believer converted) step on the tracks - earned me some big exacta's and trifecta's. I do not doubt there will be an eye popper dark horse in the paddock this year - we expect it of Big Brown, but hold the wagers to see who is bursting at the seams on race day....could be any one of the muscle horses. Ekati and Pyro are the sleeper type, not likely to appear overwhelming despite thier talent.

Regarding Ekati and Prado, I am not surprised Prado's choices were narrowed down early. Prado obviously felt some obligations to the connections of Adriano and Tagg would not want someone who is not 110% - no hard feelings, just Tagg style. Afterall Prado only rode him twice, the Louisana Derby (hmmm) and the Wood. After the Wood Tagg said he did not like how Edgar put him up so fast so early, but deferred to his experience (some what shorter than Taggs own tale...Barclay is smart as a whip and this could be a tounge in cheek comment). Watch the replay of the LDerby and focus on Tale of Ekati, could he not have finished significantly further up the charts if Prado had been patient and stayed inside? Maybe Prado's choice was easier than we think. Team Ekati has a top 10 derby horse, they have options. They have a record of finding diamonds where no one believed before (heart stings kicking in) and I like Charles Fipke. He and Tagg seem like a natural fit, neither believe in taking short cuts, both do right by the horse.

OK KrimsonKat, you have no worries about being the worst ramble on blogger.

eaoa89

04/17/2008 10:08 am

jharvat- hope you're right about Smooth Air- I got some of that 159/1 action in pool one so if he can pull it off I'll tear up my other tickets WITH A SMILE!

Regarding Prado, I'm just wondering.... Why did Pletcher put Dominguez on Monba (the better chance to win the Derby by far than "Cal" in my opinion, and leave his "go to guy" Johnny V. on Cal? I'm sure he's forgotten more about racing than I know, but still seems kinda wierd doesn't it?

Regarding Jocks and agents handicapping.... It's pretty 'hit or miss' (I'm involved in a small partnership and I can tell you that their ability to choose horses is better than most but not as good as a "top handicapper". The real thing to remember is that the horse they choose to ride "today" may be in exchange for some business "down the road" so it could well be that Prado doesn't think any of the 3 horses really have a shot in the Derby so he's taking the mount that will benefit him most in future business? (Although I do think Monba is a BIG TIME CONTENDER!)

tracmonster

04/17/2008 10:15 am

Fastlane...it's easy to love a horse when all he does is run his guts out...Col. John has run well every time...it would be a shame if his first clunker came on derby day...honestly..I really wish Gomez was on him...thought he rode a very crafty race to beat Gato malo in his comebacker and he's definitely the most consistent rider in big races...Nakatani hasnt really had great horses to ride in the derby but he cant say that now...If he loses...well...I dont think it will be John's fault...the other Cali horses are looking alright as well..Gayego has moved forward every race and Bob Black Jack is racing well also...I really dont like front speed at Churchill however but some have overcome the tendency to go fast and hang on and win...Spend A Buck, War Emblem come to mind..but BBJ is improving and Flores is a good and under rated rider...the other horse is Salute The sarge...he was very highly regarded last summer but doesnt have much foundation for May 3...but he's a nice horse...Im trying to think of the last Cali horse I was high on and I think honestly..it was Sunday Silence......

barbeach

04/17/2008 10:59 am

eaoa,
Regarding Ramon on Monba, dont take it as Pletcher wanting to put Jonny V on Cal, take it as Jonny V wanting to ride Cal himself. Cowboy Cal has done nothing wrong in his racing career, other than his first start. The only thing he has not done is win on dirt which I can name some top contenders that havent done that yet, Colonel John and Adriano. Watch out for him at BIG odds.

I keep talking about the fillies but did anyone see Dan Shapiro's TOP TEN, EIGHT BELLES. ARE YOU KIDDING ME????????????????? She isnt even the best filly, cant wait until
he writes a blog so I can rip on him. Rediculous.

Joel,
highly unlikely Gomez is on Pyro, I dont think Steve would do that to his main man Shaun B.

jharvat

04/17/2008 11:46 am

eaoa89 -
159-1 is so nice! I will be pulling for you on Smooth Air, because I will be on him too. I will play him across the board. I love how the horse is progressing. He has $ 320,000 in earnings this year in 3 starts (1-1-1). I like the way he ran in the Florida Derby. He broke nice, and Cruz was able to settle him back and rate. He made a nice forward move on the final turn, but Big Brown was already in high gear and was not going to be caught on that day. But if you watch Smooth Air, he was not losing ground in the stretch and he was striding out nice. That was only his second crack at two turns. The horse seems to be learning the game to me and will move forward again off his Florida Derby. I love the fact they are shipping him to CD 2 weeks before the Derby. He had a great work at Calder earlier this week. He will be rested and ready. I really think he has a great shot in this Derby. You certainly cannot knock his record: 3-2-2 from 7 starts. He doesnt have a 100+ (98) Beyer yet, but that may just come on May 3rd. Smooth Air in front!

joel

04/17/2008 12:30 pm

eaoa89,

Edgar Prado is the preferred rider for Starlight Stables now... not John Velazquez.

There are reasons behind this - and without going into detail, they derive from Octave in last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff

joel

04/17/2008 12:37 pm

barbeach,

Steve is not the only decision maker for Pyro, keep that in mind... Mr. Winchell owns the horse and they are a team when making decisions... It is wrong to take a rider off when you are winning races, but when you lose you have a reason to go another direction...

The facts are that Bridgmohan gave the horse questionable rides in both races at Fair Grounds, but since the horse won the races he was not overly criticized for those rides... Now that Pyro ran 10th in the Blue Grass - although there was nothing Shaun or any rider could have done about that - it gives the connections a chance to step back and regroup with their strategy.

Garrett Gomez rides some for Steve and might be the hottest rider and best "big-race" rider in the country right now, so when a race as crucial and big as the Derby comes around and he and his agent Ron Anderson are interested in riding a top contender in Pyro after that bad of a race in the Blue Grass -- it is natural to think hard about it... I think that's exactly what they are doing right now...

slot33

04/17/2008 1:45 pm

Jharvat,

Think your onto something with Smooth Air. You make sound points on him. I know his pedigree is a little light for distance but it seems like Stutts might be able to overcome that with his training. Love the mile works he puts into this guy.

Yes I'm on record that I like CJ and Z Fortune best for the win. But I've also posted that I'll be boxing CJ, Z Fortune, Smooth Air and either Pyro or Z Humor.

Smooth Air should go off at tasty odds and present good value. Good luck with him.

Cdpotato4

04/17/2008 3:47 pm

I would love to see Smooth Air take it, I got him at 192-1 in Pool 2. It is highly unlikely though.

barryrmitchell

04/17/2008 4:42 pm

COLONEL JOHN VS. PYRO, That's all you need to know at the wire.

There all in the gate! there off for the 2008 Kentucky Derby

War Pass takes the lead, recap and cowbot gives chase.

4f War Pass vs. Recap and Cowboy

6f War Pass vs. Cowboy and Big Brown

1 mile War Pass vs Big Brown and Gayego

1 1/8 War Pass vs Colonel John and Pyro

1 1/4 Colonel John, Pyro, Monba

slot33

04/17/2008 5:39 pm

Barry... could you be a little more specific!? Just kidding. I like your scenario... it would make me some $$$.

ryanmoseley

04/17/2008 6:52 pm

So I said if Court Vision wins I'll eat my hat. Now it looks like I'll have to be preparing my digestive system for a rough period. He was impresive in the Iroquois and the Remsen and I really liked him then. Since then he has been lackluster and just slow. Add blinkers and put him back at Churchill and he takes off like a bat out of hell. I'm a "horses for courses" type handicapper and I give a lot of credence to what goes on in the mornings. I'm a bit of a railbird. That move really impressed me so much that I won't leave him out of any of my exotics. I can't wait to see how the Colonel moves over the surface. I hope they put a horse or 2 in front of him so he can get used to the kickback.

mike barker

04/17/2008 6:55 pm

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/DerbyEarnings.jsp

FASTLANE

04/18/2008 12:44 am

Beyer figures actually take in acocount all races run that day at that track, what level of horses, wind speed and direction, etc. They are extremely useful, but I still have trouble believing there can be a 10+or- in a race at the same distance in the same time(Big Brown;Col. John). I honestly think the Beyers in Cali are off a bit, at least 5 points.

ryanmoseley

04/18/2008 1:08 am

Surely much to the delight of Barry and Potato is the ommiton of Tomcito from DRF's Graded earnings list!

barryrmitchell

04/19/2008 4:44 am

Thats right Ryan, Delete, Delete, Delete, Delete, Delete, Delete, Delete, (7) the number of completion. Since there are seven characters is the name TOMCITO.

rimott

04/19/2008 8:32 am

ryanmoseley,

You were bashing CV in every which way and now he has one work that impresses everyone and your sucking up to him now? I'm holding you to your guarentee of a 10th through 15th finish. You can't hop aboard so quickly after having saying how CV "is a big throwout". Still wanna eat your hat?

Guiltfree

04/20/2008 7:12 pm

I think Big Brown is is over-hyped and will fall short of expectations. The buzz reminds me of the Internet Stock bubble burst and the NBA's recent infatuation with high school players. The horse's potential could be huge and no one wants to miss out on the next Curlin or Secretariat (or Google, or Labron James, etc.).

He ran very greenly down the stretch in the Florida Derby. No horse that runs suicide pace of :45 in the first mile wins the Derby. His pedigree suggests that he will struggle to go 1 ΒΌ, not to mention his foot problems.

Guiltfree

04/20/2008 7:44 pm

Correction - first 1/2 mile in :45.

If BB can rate, he may have a chance.

Also, he IS NOT the fastest horse in the race. Bob Black jack set the world record at 6 furlongs. If there is a freak in this race, its him.

Michelle123

04/20/2008 9:00 pm

i say if Colonel John likes the dirt(which hes pedigree says he can) he has a huge shot in the derby, also i don't know what to make of big brown right now, will he fall flat on derby day or will be rise to the occasion, i also don't know what to make of the decision to not work him at CD, is it because they dont want to hurt his feet on the hard surface? and if thats the case hes not going to have fun on derby day. and with War Pass out i think it will help Big Brown's chances because there is no pace duel.

as for Pyro, i partially blame it on the surface but 10th place? he might not have liked it but it diddnt seem like he got anything out of that race

patbateman

04/26/2008 8:54 pm

Joel, I'm sort of slowly changing my mind about Colonel John, and I now think he has a great chance to be in the money. I still like Big Brown to win, but I think Big Brown and Colonel John will both show up. I think Z Fortune will show up big, and I'm just hoping Pyro does, I have no idea about him. I think Gayego will get a trip similar to what Afleet Alex got in the 2005 Derby but he is not as good and I don't think he will hold on for any part of the money. I am always looking for price multipliers, and I will still play plenty of tickets with some big potential payoffs, but my mind is telling me that this year is going to be really chalky like last year, and not to waste too much money chasing longshots that seem a notch or two or three below the top few horses.

jorgemonge

04/30/2008 11:31 pm

Pat, I hear you but if you really sit down and study the race without thinking of who is your favorite. Hands down you have to pick COL JOHN he will be 10 or 11 lenghts of the field and with 4 furlongs to go is Rafael can get trough he will have to move outside to pass the trailing horses and at the final stretch position his horse at least 5 lengths from the leader hands down no doubt COL John will pull away for a VICTORY. Pyro 2nd Big Brown 3rd Gayego 4th and monba 5th.