What Big Brown Can't Do is Make You Rich

Hoping to catch bombs in the early parts of the Pick 4 to get some kind of return on him winning. GO BIG BROWN!!!!!!!!!!

Tomorrow's 10th at Calder features Sporting Art, Dream Maestro, and Flying Dismount. FD would have beaten SA last time out, but he got stuck on the rail. I remember that race vivdly. He should pay around $10-$12 to win tomorrow and I will be all over him.

Flying Dismount!

No question the horse is talented John. But this is the Derby and it does not reward horse play kindly. Here is where the birth of serious horse racing begins.

Statistically, from a field of twenty horses, only 4-5 go on to be productive thoroughbred. Fifteen seems to drop off the radar "forever"

The Kentucky Derby seems to break many of the horses spirit and eventually they find themselves becoming a stable pony in the morning.

I believe that will be the down fall of Big Brown. His immaturity. He may rebound in the Preakness Stakes. But he is not the Derby winner. The race does not setup up well for him.

Some of these horse are mean and nasty with personality problems. They will bite you for looking at them the wrong way. Many will lean on you during the running due to the calvary charge to the first turn, just out of nervous. I could be wrong, but Big Brown personality is not yet of a serious thoroughbred in running a serious race.

This is the very reason why Steve A said last year after the Kentucky Derby, Curlin will mature from the race and move forward.

Handicapping racing fans never get to know this side of the business? you have to live in the stables to find the mental state of the horses.

The only other method, I know in determining the horses character is battle tested, looking nose to nose with your competitor. Mean and nasty horses simply do not like to lose!

Colonel John seems to fit the mole. He fires at the leaders in every single race and remains the only battle tested horse to the wire.

Yeah Dutrow sounds confident. He was confident leading up to both of Kip Deville's latest victories too. He has credibility.

I'm going to try to get rich by playing some bombs to finish behind him in the super. I'd be satisfied with a cool $5000.00 super. The only way I see him getting beat is if the surface is so hard the glue on shoes don't do their job. If he ran the way he did in that allowance off 2 works for the year how well can he run his third race off a layoff? Go Big Brown!!

This reminds me of about 5 years ago with another trainer who was overflowing with confidence about his horse. In fact he went so far to say he thought the horse would be capable of winning the Triple Crown. His name was Bob Frankel and his horse's name was Empire Maker. Bet down as the chalk on Derby Day, and soundly beaten by Funny Cide. And I crumpled my big win ticket that day on him. Big Brown backers will be doing the same this year.

ryan, I like that idea a lot man. I like a lot of horses in the race, but I'm still trying to visualize a situation where they turn for home and he's not way out there having made his move on the turn. Any horse that begins his run after they straighten out will have to make up a whole lot of ground. I think Big Brown is a boom or bust pick. I think he'll win the race being as good as he is supposed to be, or he'll be maybe 2nd or out of the money altogether if he doesn't win. I won't be playing Big Brown on the bottom of too many tickets.

Thanks Pat. In my opinion the only 2 closers who may be good enough to catch Big Brown are #1 Pyro and # 2 Denis of Cork (off his last work and IF he gets in). I'll look to cover my bases accordingly.

I don't know of any horse to come into the derby, favorite or not, with an unproven 3 races and do well. I think Curlin is the only one in a hundred years to even finish in the money. All my tickets will disinclude big brown.

jharvat-reminds me of 2001 w/ 1.80-1 Point Given. he finished out of the money and fifth. Troubled hoof was the excuse and BB comes in with two quartercracks and glue ? Ain't gonna happen. He's a bounce.

ryanmoseley,

I like Gayego and Z Fortune for the Kentucky Derby but Big Brown may be the horse to beat. He’s blazing fast but unlike War Pass I believe he has the stamina go the Kentucky Derby distance.

My concern is his lack of foundation.

If he can overcome that then I don’t think it matters if Big Brown rates or goes to the lead. In fact it may be best if he went to the lead if he is indeed a “freak” as some people have speculated.

Here’s a video of another thoroughbred that could carry his speed for 1 ¼ miles:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=0-MRD9QutB8

Spend a Buck had excellent foundation with 8 starts as a 2yo. His fractions for the Kentucky Derby were :23; 1:09 3/5; 1:34 4/5; 2:00 1/5. Big Brown’s fractions for the Florida Derby were :22.76; 45.83; 1:10.98; 1:35.18; 1:48.16.

Like Big Brown's sire, Boundary, I believe that Spend A Buck’s sire, Buckaroo, was also questionable to get a classic distance thoroughbred – Spend A Buck was from his second crop.

Here’s an interesting footnote: It will be interesting to see the post that Big Brown draws because a quick check of the stats shows that a lot of horses wire the field from the 9, 10, 11 and 12 post.

I’m still evaluating the situation. A lot will depend on post position. At the present, I’m looking at Gayego, Z Fortune and Big Brown (maybe Colonel John) over Colonel John, Smooth Air and Monba (maybe Bob Black Jack, Court Vision and Z Humor).

Here's an interesting spreadsheet using the Quirin Style Pace and Speed Ratings from a drf.com poster on the FormBlog hosted by Dan Illman.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pPXNUUZK9W8VImHaNCH5sdA

Calvin,

Thanks. It was nice to see Spend a Buck again after such a long time. Z Fortune and Gayego for now round out my top 5. I think Z fortune has improved a lot and Gayego has the build, speed, a win over dirt, a 100+ Beyer and he's definately going to give 100%.

Thanks also for the breeding similarities and the fractions comparison. In my view Big Brown could maybe accomplish 2:01 which would be more than good enough against this bunch.

I think the term foundation is thrown around too much. To me it is applicable when talking about horses who are likely to encounter adversity. I see Big Brown being on or so near the lead that he will have no trouble doing what he has to do. Adversity could be that extra furlong, or other fast horses breathing down his neck. I don't think the extra furlong will be a problem and the way he goes about his races it seems to me that he does his thing regardless of what the other horses are doing. His handlers before he reached the track barely the thenoticed him since he just did everything he was asked to do. He does whatever the jock asks him to do too. I'm not too worried about "foundation". For me there are two questions. 1. Is he the fastest horse? and 2. Are his quarter cracks going to hinder him? The answer to number one is a yes. I don't know the answer to number 2 but I hope it's a no and I'm willing to bet it's a no.

As always your contribution was great. Look forward to hearing more form you in the next week.

jaydonbishop-
That is even a better example - Point Given...I remember it well. All that hype. This Dutrow cracks me up. Said he had no idea what kinda of horse he really had until after the Florida Derby. Now he says he has the best horse and is going to win the Derby. He says: "The Derby is not a difficult race to win"...This coming from a guy who has never had a horse in the Derby. I cant wait to this guy eat crow and shut up

Jharvat,

Think you'll get your wish come Derby Day with Dutrow a bit embarassed. I don't know how many horses with 3 lifetime races have started in the Derby... or how good they were... but the record and history is clear that it is extremely difficult to win off that foundation. But also, when was the last time a horse with 4 lifetime starts won the Derby? It's tough to win with a 5-race foundation although I know its been done by some good horses. The Derby is a grueling race for young 3 year olds. History has shown that a solid foundation... 6 races or more... is the best preparation path and produces a more likely winner. There's so many out there that just casually dismiss this... hey my horse is fastest, is a monster, it doesn't matter... etc. etc. ... but how many of those type horses have overcome the lack of foundation and actually won? And it seems to me that relying on Big Brown's 1 2-yr. old race as some sort of foundation builder is extremely shaky. It was 7 months from his Sept. 2 yr. old race until his next start at 3. How much bottom/foundation did he retain from that run? I'd say very little as he wasn't training for long stretches in between because of his feet. So yes, somebody's going to be eating crow come late this Sat. afternoon. Either me and the Jharvat's of the world... or Dutrow and all the BB bettors. We'll see.

history,history,history

thats all you hear nowadays, but in the last few years its been proven that history is changing, in 2006 barbaro won off a 5 week layoff, in 2007 street sense was the first horse to win the BC juv. and the Derby.

and theres never been another big brown, everyhorse is different so i dont think its fair to compare him ot curlin at all, curlin had a different running style and he got bumpedand shuffled around and had too much to make up.

big brown's speed will carry him to the wire in the derby. experienced or not this horse is special

I personally belive Big Brown will not win the derby. People always refer to prior race history when comparing derby hopefulls. The reason for this is quite simple, you cannot argue with historic numbers. Only 2% of horses, who used the florida derby as their final prep race have won the derby. Adding to these numbers, only 3 of the last 74 winners of derby have had less than 3 starts as a 3 year old, and have had less than 6 career starts. These numbers are not in Big Browns favour. Place your wager on whoever you must. Although this horse carries nice front end early speed, I expect him to be caught and collared in the stretch. Look for Colonel John, he fits the profile of a derby winner. My wiseguy horse is Court Vision, he likes the course at Churchill, and picks up a top notch jockey to steer him home with Garret Gomez. His last effort in the Wood was a solid race, he made nice progress during the last 1/16 of a mile. Have a look at his Iroquois (GIII) win at Churchill Downs, CV looks to have really taken a shine to this track, he will be the one to fear down the stretch.

slot33,

The last time a horse won the Derby off 3 career starts was 1915, it was a filly named Regret. So, yes, it has happened before. Let's make something straight up front, I think Big Brown is talented and could win the Derby. Yes, history is against him, but who knows what will happen when the gates open next weekend. Something tells me Dutrow could be telling the truth...I will reserve final judgement when I witness his blowout in person on Thursday. Here's a rhetorical question for anyone to answer....is Big Brown this good or are the rest of 3YO horses just a cut below this year? Aside from him and Colonel John, consistentcy has been an issue....

Big Brown has had 3 jaw dropping wins and posted back-to-back 100+ Beyers, including the most visually impressive performance of any prep race.

But I think this horse is over-hyped and will fall short of expectations. The buzz surrounding Big Brown sounds familiar. I'm always skeptical when a lot of “experts” get on the band wagon and tout a particular horse as the next racing superstar.

We can learn from past history.

In 2005, Bellamy Road powered into Churchill as the most dominant Derby prospect in history. He won his last two prep races by more than 15 lengths, set a track record in the Wood Memorial, and achieved a 120 Beyer. He finished 6th in a memorable meltdown.

In 2006, Sinister Minister earned an irrelevant 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the Blue Grass Stakes prior to Barbaro's effortless Kentucky Derby victory.

Last year, Curlin was undefeated without a race at Age 2. Many thought his extraordinary talent rendered his inexperience meaningless. He was the fastest horse in the field showing multi-dimensional styles (sound familiar?) winning his prep races easily.

Big Brown will not finish in the Top 5 in the 2008 KY Derby. He will not be able to outrun his distance challenged pedigree nor will he find comfort on a hard Churchill track surface. If he's still in contention at nine furlongs after running sub :45.5 first half mile, he will run greenly down the long stretch and be overtaken by the deep closers and one or two foes that participated in the suicide pace.

How can you disregard Big Brown's hoof problems that could prevent him from running his best in the world's most difficult race? Look at the seemingly minor hoof problems that hampered Unbridled Song in 1996 and Empire Maker in 2003.

Good grief, one of this three “impressive” wins was a maiden turf race!

"Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race," Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. "I'm training this horse for a horse race; I don't care what the name of it is. I feel he's the best horse in the race - I feel he's going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me.

"I know there's no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."

"The only way I can get confidence is through my horses," Dutrow said. "Anything else I do I'm going to fail at. In the racing game I feel like I'm good, and it's because I was born to be good. I'm like a racehorse - I was born to do this, it comes naturally to me."

HE IS SO FULL OF IT!

In elementary school I was doing well enough to consider skipping a grade. Although I was spart enough and doing better than everyone I could not do it because socially I was unable to handle it. I just didn't have enough time in to handle that part of it. Big Brown is likely the fastest horse and may go on to better things, but he will not be up to it against horses with six, seven, eight or more races under their belts. One bump to War Pass was enough to end his winning streak. There is a whole world of things going on socially with these horses that handicappers know little about.

smallpaul2002,

Court Vision will also be one of my plays. However, top-notch jockey Garrett Gomez has never hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Flying Dismount had another awful trip at Calder today. He was bumped out of the gate and he had to be steadied around the last turn. The slow pace didn't help his chances either.

http://www.calderracecourse.com/videos/index.html?videosrc=/videos/curre...

Keep this one in mind next time out. Especially if he drops in class.

Calvin Carter,
Although he has never won the derby, I belive he is the top jockey around. His solid numbers over the past few seasons lead me to belive he will pick up a derby win in the very near future.

In 2007, Gomez was ranked first in North America for earnings with over $20 million through the first of November. He won two races at the 2007 Breeders' Cup, the Juvenile Fillies aboard Indian Blessing and the Sprint aboard Midnight Lute, and was third in the Distaff aboard Octave. This won him his second Bill Shoemaker Award as best jockey at the Breeders' Cup, his first was for 2005 where he also had two wins.

Moving East: Although Gomez was based in Southern California for most of his career, he moved his tack to the East coast to become the first-call rider for trainer Todd Pletcher in April 2005 when John Velazquez was out with an injury. He continues to ride for Pletcher, and although he went to California for the winter, he returned to New York in the spring.

No Eclipse Yet: Gomez led the nation in earnings in 2006 with over $21 million, but he still finished second in the Eclipse Award voting for Champion Jockey. If he can keep on track, it is just a matter of time before he adds that to his accomplishments.

That's a great picture of Big Brown for this blog, did the "horsey paparrazi" take it? Just kidding, but seriously I like the high quality photography surrounding the sport and it makes it more enjoyable to follow from afar than if it was all in black and white.

Gomez has been teaming up with Pletcher lately, so maybe that's why he doesn't have a Derby win yet...Just mixing it up, Derby Fever. Does anyone think Big Brown is going to get a trip similar to what Smarty Jones had? At least the running style of Z Fortune is similar to Curlin, so maybe after all Albarado is the better jockey to ride him at this point. I wouldn't say Z Fortune is on par with Curlin at all, but at this point he has a better chance to win the Kentucky Derby...

Calvin, whose pedigree is better for the Derby, Denis of Cork or Big Truck?

patbateman
Sorry to jump in but it's derby time.
The Dossage index for this years derby rates Big Truck at 1.40 and Dennis of Cork at 1.80.
Both horses qualify for derby conditions under the DI. Since 1940 only 4 horses have won the derby with a Dossage Index above 4.00. The average since 1940 is 2.22

Horses that qualify this year under the 68 year average of 2.22 are as follows.
Big Truck 1.40
Big Brown 1.67
Z Fortune 1.67
Dennis Of Cork 1.80
Momba 2.00
Tale of Ekati 2.00
Colonel John 2.11

Another thing to consider when narrowing the field down, only 1 horse has won the derby since 1946 with a layoff of more than 28 days.
Hope this helps.

To all Big Brown fans and detractor's alike,

Have a read. It's interesting whether you buy it or not. I buy it. I want to know what you all think.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?colum...

Guiltfree and other Big Brown detractors,

"overhyped"? Not one pro on this site has Big Brown number 1. I can't fault anyone for seeking value or making him prove it to beat you, but I don't think it's necessarily smart to toss him based on history. Every race, every horse is different. Bellamy Road was top class. He chased a wicked pace with everyone out to beat him to the lead and ran respectably given the scenario and injury incurred. Sinister Minister also ran a big race in the Derby. I believe he made a big move and took the lead turning for home before his pedigree (or bounce) got him. Curlin could have won with a better post, trip, or break. Boundary's aren't necessarily limited by distance. He's had stakes runners place up to 12f.

Again, play against him for value or because you're not convinced yet, but do not knock what he's accomplished. You can even bet against him because of his 1/4 crack issues. But statements like "he can't win" or "he won't finish in the top 5", well that's an awfully bold statement for a horse that hasn't come close to losing and crushed in the Florida Derby. We don't know how good he is, but he's ran big enough to win already. Will he do it again against 19 instead of 11 and at 10f rather than 9f? No one can say he will, but one certainly cannot say he is incapable.

BTW, Big Brown had a quarter crack in January. Empire Maker had his like 5 days before the race and missed training because of it. He could have just as easily won as lost. But again, "can't" and "won't" are entirely different things, same with "couldn't" and "didn't". Be careful not to jump to conclusions based on outdated statistics. This coming from a numbers guy...

Derbyme,
Excellent points. I love the give and take exchanges of these blogs. Lets talk on May 4th. Good luck at the track.

smallpaul, thats good information, ryanmosley, I agree somewhat about Big Brown, although I think its less the times and numbers on Big Brown but just the fact that when you watch the video it looks like he has a lot left in reserve that he hasn't had to call upon yet. And if he runs his best race yet, it would be hard to beat him. Derbyme, yeah I might worry about Big Brown's feel for the Preakness, after running on the Churchill track may be rough, but I don't worry about it for the Derby. If the horse had one more start under his belt, he would be even money, so he could be a nice value after all.

feet, not feel

Pat and all,

Agree on value. As a numbers guy... Brisnet Prime Power has Big Brown ranked first in the field by 5.8 points over Pyro. Prime Power counts, as even with all other variables unaccounted for, a horse with a 4 pt. advantage wins 39% of the time. A horse with a 6pt advantage wins 46% of the time!! Big Brown should win about 45/100 races by this stat. There are more variables in this race, namely more runners, than the average race for the statistic, so you should probably lower it a bit. But even if he was only to win 33% of the time, he would be value at anything better than 2-1. That is a conservative estimate. If you use the whole 45%, then he is value at 6/5 or better!

It's a solid angle. In the last 2 days It put me on a Frankel maiden at 9/5 and Sky Cape at 2-1. Not bad prices when they should be winning better than 55% of the time (10pt+ advantage).

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=primepower

patebateman,

I like Denis of Cork's pedigree better than Big Truck's and if I have time later I'll give you an analysis. In the meantime take a look at Denis of Cork's performance figure (-67) recorded by Dr. Steven Romans in the links below.

ryanmoseley,

I was very impressed with Colonel John’s work on Sunday and it appears that he is ready for a big effort on May 3rd.

Here's some statistics you may appreciate. If you take a look at Dr. Steven A. Romans Dosage: pedigree and performance figures:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_top_25.htm

I found it interesting that while Big Brown has the best performance figure (-89), if you look at the Dr. Romans Top Five Contenders in the Key Pace Parameter Categories, of the 8 different categories listed, Gayego is in the top five in 7 of those categories while Colonel John is in the top five in 6 of those categories.

Another interesting statistic is that Behindatthebar is listed in 5 of those 8 categories and tops the list in 3 of those 5 categories he’s listed in. Visionaire is listed in 4 of those 8 eight categories while Big Brown, Bob Black Jack and Pryo are each listed in 3 of those categories.

Very interesting statistics, indeed.

I’m going to have to take another look at Behindatthebar as he may be a good play in the exotics and even a good long shot play.

Here’s Dr. Romans Kentucky Derby pace parameters history since 1998:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/pace_parameter_history.htm

Since 1998, there was only 1 year (2006: Barbaro) where the Kentucky Derby winner was not listed in any of the pace parameter categories.

As you can see from the history the most any winner appeared in the different pace parameter categories was 5 times and this year, Gayego appears in 7 categories and Colonel John appears in 6 categories.

Those statistics are very telling to me and adds another handicapping angle that I’ll have to explore further.

I narrowed things down - Colonel John, Gayego, Court Vision, Z Fortune.

Calvin,

The charts were very interesting and helpful though a tad confusing. I agree with you on Behindatthebar although my first thought was that he is going to be a poly monster at anything up to a mile and 1/8. I'm not a big fan of Forest Wildcats at a mile and 1/4 but we'll probably see how that works out on May 3. For me I'd prefer if he didn't run at all as I love Denis of Cork. I do not, however, feel sorry for his connections.

Colonel John's work today has moved him to co- #1 with Big Brown for me. I thought it was an awesome move and he's going to take the world of beating. The slight edge to Big Brown sill as he's more likely to get a clear run throughout. Eight Belles work impressed me too and I may have to reconsider my position on her.

Denis of Cork looked pretty good today, and I'm sure he'll be bet heavily. I guess he deserves to be in the race but it sure does make it a lot more difficult to handicap than had Behindatthebar run instead. Denis of Cork, Z Fortune, Big Brown and Big Truck that would be a superfecta that pays. I will play some tickets that take a stand against all the California horses, despite their dirt credentials. There are almost too many viable combinations to get too involved with trying to hit the superfecta. I might just try to hit some exactas and tris, and limit the superfecta to maybe 10 percent of my wagers. 5 days out and I'm still scratching my head, I hope the post draws brings it into focus.

Pat,

You're right. Any "smart" superfecta play will have to include too many horses. I'm going to take a stand against the horses who haven't worked impressively. Here is my analysis of the probable startes' chances.

I'm taking a stand against Z Fortune who I liked a lot. I get the sense from Asmussen's comments that he thinks Z Fortune may be a tired horse after running what he calls, "the race of his life" in the Arkansas Derby. His work was just what was asked of him so it's hard to hold that against him but with so many others impressing I've got to toss him. He could come back to haunt me. As such if he looks full of energy in the mornings from now on he could regain a place at the bottom of my supers.

I'm tossing Monba since his work this week at Keeneland. He worked horribly and he pulled himself up sharply afterward. I know he's not the best work horse but he did work fourth best of 56 before the Blue Grass. He's a toss since I feel he may be bouncing off that effort.

Bob Black Jack is a toss. With the addition of blinkers he'll go for the lead. Barry you were right! He's showed he can run 1 1/8 when he rates. I'll take my chances against him holding on at 1 1/4 after cutting out what will likely be fast fractions.

Adriano is a toss. He worked terribly and he needs too many things to go his way. He needs to remain calm despite the crowd and he needs to not get bounced around. He's my pick to finish last.

Cool Coal Man is a toss. I know he's won at the track but he was also beaten out of sight on it by Anak Nakal when the stakes were higher. He seems the type to want to dominate and if he can't he packs it in. I'll let him beat me. He didn't show Pyro like form before his poor Blue Grass effort.

Big Truck is a toss despite the bullet work. He started his work fast and finished up slowly. Not the type of effort one looks for from a closer. His pedigree suggests miler and I think he'll find his niche at that reduced distance. He's a nice Grade 2 and 3 performer in the making.

Z Humor is a toss. He's just not classy enough or fast enough and he's not working well enough. He'll try his hardest and finish about 14th.

Recapturetheglory has been training "ok" according to the professional clockers. The son of Cherokee Run figures to be a victim of the pace scenario and I'm willing to bet that he'll begin to fade after 3/4.

I'm tossing Visionaire because I don't think he's good enough. In my estimation he's a step below Z Fortune and his pedigree suggests miler. He has a good trainer though and this could be one who comes back to haunt me. Still I'm willing to take that chance as there are others who I feel have better credentials. He also hasn't worked inspiringly.

Cowboy Cal is a toss too. I'm not too convinced he'll be there at the end of 1 1/4 miles on dirt after his second place effort off slow fractions in the Poly Grass. He is a high class performer without a doubt but again there are others with srtonger claims.

I'm not fond of playing horses whose health is questionable so Smooth Air is in doubt. Apparently the black cat crossed his path AGAIN today! He looked full of energy this morning so I may still play him.

I'm left with 9 or 10 horses for the super. I don't think Anak Nakal has the class but I feel he'll be the longest shot on the board and they have a way of hitting that fourth spot on D Day. He's been working well enough for me to take a gamble.

Tale of Ekati is going to be a bit of a forgotten horse and I feel he'll move up off his Wood performance. He's working quite well and he showed in the Breeder's Cup that he'll give an effort even if the conditions aren't ideal. I like his placing chances at longish odds for a Wood winner in his third run off a layoff.

Court Vision is another who could pick up minor pieces but won't inspire huge payouts as I think every "smart" horseplayer will to play him in the exotics. He's a changed fellow with the addition of blinkers and the move to Churchill.

Initially I didn't like Eight Belles but I loved her work and I think she matches up physically with the boys which is a big plus. She's classy but for some reason I doubt her ability to finish strong at the end of 10 panels. I think she'll be right there at the top of the stretch and it will be a matter of heart whether she can hold onto a place.

Gayego is working well on the Churhill strip. He also looks a picture! Everyone loves his looks and he could be bet down into single digits. I can see him being first 3 until the 1/16th pole and fading to fourth. That being said I think he'll prove just as good as Colonel John at 1 1/16 to 1 1/8. He handled Bob Black Jack quite well himself in a second place effort to Georgie Boy.

Denis Denis Denis of Cork has finally got in! I'm elated as he is working like a champ. His owner could be vindicated in the biggest way if he bounces back with a win here. In my estimation this one has a chance to win it at decent odds. I figure he'll go off at about 15-1. My only pari bet will be an across the board bet on this guy. If he hits he'll pay me back for all my money spent on the exotics.

Pyro finished up his work well today under no urging at all. His work was far more inspiring than that of his stablemate Z Fortune. He showed in the Risen Star that he is a class above that one and I believe that still holds true. He is high class and barring serious traffic problems he'll be flying at the end. He could be this year's forgotten horse like Monarchos. He can surely win but if he does I can only hit the tri and definately not the super.

Colonel John is coming into this race like a beast. He overcame adversity to win the SA Derby after being unexpectedly shuffled back coming into the home turn. If you watch his previous races you'll see this SA Derby was the first time he was given right hand urging by the jockey. With this added information and a clear run he's a definate late running threat to Big Brown. The work this guy put in yesterday was the best I've seen on video. The California form has held up and he's been the best out there ( I would have loved to have seen Georgie Boy make the race). Ten Furlongs suits Colonel John to the bone. He's bred for it and he runs like he's yearning for it. He's all class and I'll make sure that I can win the super if he gets up.

Big Brown is still the fastest horse. If he'd broken from the 2 hole (where Elctrify broke from in the race in which he set the track record) in the Florida Derby he'd have won by 10 and own the track record. The 5 weeks between races is perfect for him to be able to bounce back off that huge effort. At the end of the Florida Derby he was playing with his ears and he wasn't even blowing when he came back to the winner's circle which leads me to believe that the race didn't take too much out of him. He figures to avoid trouble in the Derby with his high cruising speed and I can almost guarantee this one will be in front at the 1/8 pole. Desormeaux says the horse is so intelligent he thinks he can win if he's 14th early on. His camp is confident and so am I. He's a monster and I think we could be looking at the next Seattle Slew. God knows racing could use it. If he wins I'll have my best chance at cashing the exotics, but then again so will half the betting public.

Good luck to all.

Wow, some people saying he wont finish in the Top 5? I dunno bout all that... it is going to be interested to see.

I'm going with whatever www.WinningPonies.com puts for their picks... they hit monsters in last year's derby.