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Louisiana Derby The Deepest Of Derby Preps -- So Far

posted by John Asher on March 06, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
Pyro (photo by: Reed Palmer/CDI)Pyro (photo by: Reed Palmer/CDI)

Momentarily putting aside the presence of the possible favorite for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I), any prep for the "Run for the Roses" that includes five members of any pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager deserves considerable attention.

Not only does the nine-horse field that will compete in the 1 1/16-mile premier race of the Fair Grounds meet
include those five Pool 2 wagering interests of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, it is headed by the horse that many believe could be THE horse. That is Winchell Thoroughbreds' Pyro, a Steve Asmussen-trained son of Pulpit whose jaw-dropping rally through the long Fair Grounds home stretch in the Risen Star still has racing fans buzzing.

Shaun Bridgmohan rode Pyro in the Risen Star like he was on the best horse, and the belief here is that Pyro will again prove to be the just that in Saturday's Louisiana Derby. But, given his late-running style, he does not have to win this race. Major traffic problems for the favorite open the door to any number of scenarios.
With that in mind, we'll offer some thoughts on the Louisiana Derby field (in post position order):

1. Stevil (Eddie Castro, 15-1)-- trainer Nick Zito seems to be unveiling a new major contender per week. It's a stretch to think this guy will win the race, but he's been facing tough foes and adds blinkers for this race. He could get a piece at a price. Calvin Borel was named to ride, but Castro picked up the mount because last year's Derby-winning jockey decided to ride at Oaklawn Park.

2. My Pal Charlie (Julien Leparoux, 20-1) -- Beat first-level allowance foes last out.

3. Pyro (Bridgmohan, 7-5) -- If he gets a clean trip, the price might seem generous.

4. J Be K (Kent Desormeaux, 12-1)-- He'll get his name called -- a lot. Loved Asmussen's quote in the Daily Racing Form: "They won't catch him -- if he stays."

5. Unbridled Vicar (Corey Lanerie, 20-1) -- Solid effort at a huge price in the Risen Star -- and he could boost the exotics with a big price third or fourth place run on Saturday.

6. Tale of Ekati (Edgar Prado, 7-2) -- Last ran fourth in the slop in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He likely did not care for the track that day and should run well on Saturday, but probably needs a race.

7. Blackberry Road (Robby Albarado, 10-1) -- Hard luck colt will be running late.

8. Yankee Bravo (Alex Solis,4-1) -- California Derby win was visually impressive, but slow.

9. Majestic Warrior (Garrett Gomez, 9-2) -- Hopeful (GI) winner runs for the first time since the fall, but no one is better at bringing horses back off an extended layoff than Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

There should be ample pace to set up Pyro's late charge and, should he enjoy a good journey, will be tough to handle -- even if all members of this talented group are at their best. The horse that I believe will be a threat at a price is Blackberry Road. The half-brother to champion Vindication has run well in solid stakes company, but has been most notable for his bad luck. His penchant for poor fortune has cost him victories in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile (GIII) and the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII), and he probably should have been the runner-up in Pyro's Risen Star.

He gets a new rider in Robby Albarado and it's probably a good move. Calvin Borel taught trainer David Carroll's colt much during morning works and in his afternoon efforts, but they just didn't have much luck on race day. That's no fault of Calvin's -- sometimes it just doesn't work out.

Should Blackberry Road enjoy some racing luck, he should be rolling through the long Fair Grounds stretch. Or, he could end up proving that he's another Dollar Bill, a talented colt who always seemed to find his way into a mishap of some sort. But the competition will be keen and the price will be right on Blackberry Road in the Louisiana Derby. The guess here is that he'll turn in a big one and complete a solid exacta with Pyro. Should the favorite be the one to experience the bad luck, Blackberry Road could secure a solid spot on the road to Churchill Downs and Kentucky Derby 134.

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BOBBY

03/07/2008 9:01 am

My thoughts exactly, Robby will wait and go to the outside, instead of trying one of Calvin's inside moves. With a 9 horse field and a clear lane we'll see what Blackberry's made of. I love him to pick up the peices, all he needs is a good second to secure his spot in the first Sat in May and then it's a crap shoot. After watching the reply several times I have never seen a horse get blocked so many times. Calvin really screwed this horse up last out.

mike barker

03/07/2008 9:18 am

Pyro and Blackberry Rd in the exacta, looks like with JBK in there they both should have plenty to run at..

Cdpotato4

03/07/2008 10:07 am

As I recall 4 of FG's 10 races last Saturday were wired. 2 of the wiring winners broke from Post 4.

I like J Be K to hold off all late-comers for the win. Asmussen needs this horse in the derby to keep War Pass in check up front. He needs the graded earnings.

Pyro will complete the second Asmussen Derby Prep Exacta.

Unbridled Vicar to add some value to the TRI.

That's:

4 / 3 / 5 TAKE IT TO THE BANK!

Jamie21

03/07/2008 10:03 pm

Pyro to win. The rest dont matter. As far as the Derby that will be between WarPass and Pyro.
J BE K and Cool Coal Man will be in the mix too.

patbateman

03/07/2008 10:23 pm

John, what a great development for the Fairgrounds. I think owners and trainers like what the dirt surface offers when preparing for the Derby. This could be the last real dirt surface that many of these horses race on before they hit Churchill, so it will be interesting to see how the trainers approach it. I imagine Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior will offer something, but Pyro should once again run away in that long stretch.

phil_cayla

03/08/2008 1:25 am

I agree with potato. Except I will leave the door open for BBRoad, and Maj.Warrior for third.
J Be K/Pyro with Vicar, BBRoad or Maj. Warrior for third and fourth

CAMCHLOE

03/08/2008 9:03 pm

Gotta love the expert opinions......then I watch the race and realize I might as well roll the dice and play that number

sripa1212

03/09/2008 3:15 pm

Camchole..

I so much agree with you...you feel sometimes you are in front of tarot card readers...especailly CD Potato...he trashes others for their comments and he has yet to say something enlightening or with added value than what we all hear already...let alone hit a race....

I hope he has a day job...

Cdpotato4

03/09/2008 5:35 pm

Sripa,

Why the grudge? I do not think I have offended anyone with my posts and if I have than I apologize. If am just trying to add insightful opinions to the conversations. Obviously as you pointed out I whiffed on this one.

And for the record, I certainly am not close to being a professional handicapper. I just absolutley love this Sport of Kings.

No offense taken. In the future I will try to limit my bashing of foreign horses running with donkeys in Peru.

wintersborder31

03/09/2008 8:57 pm

Does anyone know what happened to Kodiak Kowboy? Is he going to try and run in the Derby?

barbeach

03/09/2008 9:19 pm

Question is, If Borel rides Blackberry Road does he finish better? I thought he was way to close to the lead and if he would have stayed to the inside and farther off the pace he basically gets the trip Yankee bravo had and could have easily gotten up for second. Bad call in my opinion, Calvin Borail will screw you from time to time but when given the chance he does ride well.

mike barker

03/10/2008 11:14 am

ROBBY ALBARADO IS AWFUL

Jamie21

03/10/2008 7:25 pm

Mike,
Do you really think blackberry road will place in the derby? Dont get me wrong i picked him in my line up but after his last 2 races I have come to like Cool Cool Man. At least he's improving not getting worse. As for Pyro who I would really love to see win, do you think he can catch WarPass? I have watched all 3 races over and over again with those two and I have to say, unless Pyro gets some more gas, WARPASS will win it.

Calvin Carter

03/10/2008 9:06 pm

sripa1212,

What is the latest news on Tomcito? Is he going to race in the Florida Derby and then Kentucky Derby.

Also, what does Tomcito mean?

sripa1212

03/10/2008 9:40 pm

Calvin...

Thanks for asking...Tomcito worked today sunday one mile in 1.39'4/5...went better than two weeks ago and e is rounding into racing shape...we have not yet made any decisions but it is leaning towards the FL derby or the Bluegrass depending on how much more he progresses...

CD POTATo...what is your f...g problem...I have read 200 posts and Pyro is in 199 of them, war pas in 198 of them and justifyably so,,,Tomcito s in less than 10...so get over it dude...let people write what they want and if you dont like it dont read it, let alone takin the time to make asinine comments..

sripa1212

03/10/2008 9:42 pm

OH..potato...FYI Tomcito is not a foreign horse moron...he was foaled in KY, he campaigned in Peru...

wintersborder31

03/10/2008 9:51 pm

Does anyone know what happened to Kodiak Kowboy? Is he going to try and run in the Derby?

barbeach

03/10/2008 10:14 pm

No idea about Kodiak Kowboy. My idea is they will probably do the same thing they do with J Be K, stick to the sprints.

About Cool Coal Man, I dont think he is much of a Derby horse at all and to tell you the truth I dont think Zito does either. He had to go to DELAWARE to break his maiden. Yes, he did win by 10 or so but come on, if you are any good you dont go to delaware. I wont ever bet a horse to win or even show in the Derby if they break their maiden at delaware when they are trained by a New York trainer. I dont think Zito thinks he's a solid Derby threat because he is leaving Florida. Why would you take a horse away from the track where he has won two races in a row and seems to be relishing the track and its surroundings. So he is going to take him to the Blue Grass to take on Pyro? He isnt going to win that one. Why not leave him in Florida for the FL Derby to take on questionable derby horses who havent yet proved themselves? It just doesnt make any sense to me. I bet he'll end up going in the Illinois Derby to win something easy.

sharonroller

03/11/2008 11:31 am

sripa1212

Tomcito was brought to my attention by another blogger earlier this year.(Thanks Calvin!) So I have been curious, and watching for him.
I see that he is working, and the Florida Derby or Bluegrass may be up for him.
A question, if I may...Do you see him going onto the Kentucky Derby, or because of his propensity for distances ..maybe to The Belmont, instead.?
I know that in a previous post you mentioned (Dubai) and then to The Belmont..
Thank you for any input and if you can't comment on something like this, that's ok too.
Good Luck to your Cousin!

also, I'd also be curious as to what Tomcito means....my guess: Little Tom, or Little Tommy.

Cdpotato4

03/11/2008 11:51 am

Zito on Cool Coal Man, following the FOY:

"I thought my other horse would run bigger but he really had no chance with such a slow pace," said Zito."

Zito made no commitments for Cool Coal Man's next start.

"If you can guarantee me he'll have 30 good days, get the one post again, and half the field will disappear, than we'll go in the Florida Derby," said Zito.

sripa1212

03/11/2008 12:11 pm

Sharon...

Tomcito means little Tom, named for the GM of my cousin's casino in Peru. Right now, Dubai appears to be out as the horse needs more time to round into best form, depending on that and on the fields is either the FL derby or the Bluegrass, if he finishes in the top 4 in either race which would be after a 4 months layoff, then it is on to KY...

the Belmont has always been our top prize however...
Hope that helps,

Jamie21

03/11/2008 12:30 pm

Barbeach: Thanks for answering me on the Cool Coal Man topic. Like I said he is one of my long shot picks for now. At least he is doing better then Blackberry Road.

Tomicito is another horse I like as well and would like to see more of him soon.

Sripa1212 The donkeys in Peru comment was uncalled for and like my father always said. Opinions are like A$$holes everyone has one.

sharonroller

03/11/2008 1:44 pm

sripa1212
Thank you for the Tomcito plans. Good luck to you and all his connections.
...and the note on his namesake.
He must be a happy guy, to be a namesake to a horse who has accomplished so much,
so soon.

Cdpotato4

03/11/2008 2:14 pm

What has he accomplished so soon? Oh yeah, that's right he beat Eeyore and Eddie Murphy.

Hahaha.

You guys need to lighten up.

patbateman

03/11/2008 4:53 pm

Tomcito, Big Brown, Sierra Sunset, Texas Wildcatter...there is some value in the field at 6-1 I think from future wager #2. What a crapshoot this year, things may become clearer after this weekend.

I don't believe in Denis of Cork, although I had feared him somewhat at a mile and 16th, as I am a backer of Z Fortune. Anak Nakal does not scare me and maybe Sierra Sunset will pull the shocker, but for now I feel better than ever that Z Fortune will get the race he needs and the graded earnings he needs to be right on schedule the old fashioned way....with a 2 year old foundation, 3 dirt derby preps and a world class trainer and jockey.

sharonroller

03/12/2008 1:11 am

Cdpotato4
I'll take your Ha-Ha-Ha as a lightened approach to my comment.
But hey, whether here in the good 'ol US of A ,in Europe, Ireland, in Peru or anywhere else there is the sport of horseracing, winning is exciting! In his country Tomcito won his 1st two races, and in three group 1 races he had two 1st, and a 2nd., and he was Peru's 2007 Horse of the Year.
(sripa1212....correct me if I'm wrong, here)

How he will match up here is still to be seen, BUT, the fact is the horse is a winner.
Don't take that away from the owners and their connections.
It's just as fun and exciting as say, seeing Peppers Pride, older mare, win 14 in New Mexico.(Zia Park)
The competition there is what it is, and some say she would never win out of her element...but it still doesn't take away from her acomplishment.
Am I comparing Apples to Oranges?, maybe....but the fact is these horses are winners and should get some respect.
I would be thrilled to be involved in racing, and have a horse win...anywhere.
As it is, I live vicariously through friends.

ok, I'll get off my soap box. Thanks for the minute to let me comment.
..and thank you to John Asher for this blog.

Calvin Carter

03/12/2008 2:12 am

sripa1212,

I an earlier blog when you first started posting here, I believe that you said that Tomcito ran the fastest final fractions of Clasico Derby Nacional (G1)and the G1 Clasico Ricardo Ortiz de Zevallos.

What was the original fastest final fraction time and what was Tomcito's time. Also to you have the fractional splits for both of those races.

Thanks.

sripa1212

03/12/2008 1:20 pm

Calvin...

He was timed under 12' for the last furlong on both races...no 2 yo or 3 yo had ever closed a 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 mile race under 12' in Monterrico's very deep track...

that is the information I have...

Sharon,

thank you for writing some good sense in here...where are you located?

sripa1212

03/12/2008 7:36 pm

Just to inform to those interested, and to those not you can stop reading now, Tomcito will be nominated to the FL Derby !! the decision has been made...baring any set backs in the next 2 weeks in his training he should reach the race at close to 80-90%....

We need that race to be able to go to KY...

best to all...

sharonroller

03/12/2008 7:44 pm

sripa1212
Thanks for the update on Tomcito.
Good Luck!
I'm in the good 'ol US of A. In a popular tourist destination in Nevada.
...ca-ching, ca-ching!

sripa1212

03/12/2008 8:21 pm

sharon...

what odds do u get on Tomcito in Vegas....can u get the info? probably at the Wynn ...please let me know...
Thx

sharonroller

03/12/2008 8:27 pm

sripa1212
Just a thought, in addition to this blog, do you read any on the Daily Racing Form's web site?
If I may suggest:

http://www.drf.com/

FormBlog with Dan Illman.(click on the community link)
I think you may enjoy the insight and community over there.

Regards

sharonroller

03/12/2008 8:39 pm

sripa1212

Honestly, I don't know...I don't get down to the strip very often.
I live out in the suburbs.
I'll try to find out, but betting isn't my thing, so I'm not familiar with the normal resources.

sharonroller

03/12/2008 9:06 pm

sripa1212

...did a Google search, and found Cindy Pierson Dulay's horse-race.net

http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-future.htm

click on: Future Book odds-for the Derby from the Wynn Las Vegas.

She has listed the sheets. Tomcito is (as os 3/10/08) 100/1 odds.

Hope this helps.