Looking For Depth Along The Road to Kentucky Derby 134

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Move up Visionaire on your list, you know your going to after he wins his next race :) http://www.drf.com/news/article/93058.html

Very well said, and I "asked" Jill Byrne to have you update your list several weeks ago when Crown of Thorns and into Mischief were both out. At the time, I didn't realize how hard it was going to be to make a legit list or update a list. I'm just trying to get a twelve horse list together to play the trifecta and superfecta the way I want to and I'm having trouble finding my D... horses. Sure I've thrown a little money at the early pools, but only feel "good" about my Pyro and Denis of Cork tickets from Pool 1. I was in love with Tale of Ekati at 33-1 in pool 1, but now wonder if that was a wasted ticket. I need pedigree to work this year for me and it seems like a weird enough year anything could happen.....Tomcito???????? Out of curiousity, when is the last time there was a back to back winning sire? Thanks for the great blog. Please write often. You are the "voice of the derby." The documentaries you've been a part of have all been great.

Lane

John, I agree with you too. It seems to me that this is a slow developing group of three year olds. War Pass jumped ahead in the division, but for the first time, I believe he was challenged in a way that he had not seen in any of his previous outings. If he rebounds substantially in the Wood and there is a sloppy track at Churchill then he needs to be seriously considered and may be overlooked. Pyro is a little suspect, he has advanced from his 2 year old form but has yet to face broad and deep competition. I look forward to the Florida Derby and I believe a contentious group will emerge from that race.

The King of the Derby

FASTLANE,

Don't know if it has ever happened, but at least not in recent memory.

Close 1978 Affirmed by Exclusive Quality. Exclusive Quality was also the sire of 1980 winner Genuine Risk.

Last year featured successful two-year olds who won in their three year-old campaigns and a couple of late trail monsters (Curlin & Tiago). There is far more parity this year. That being said, there is still time to separate the cream from the crop. Anyone who wins the Florida, Arkansas, Wood, Blue Grass or Santa Anita should be given a long look in Derby calculus. Big Brown may still emerge as a monster or, as his disciples continue to claim, Tomcito might make the rest of us true-believers. On Visionaire, couldn't agree more. I root for Matz but this horse isn't a real Derby threat is he?

I agree we won't have as clear a picture as last year. Let's just hope that those in the top-20 who have no chance step aside for some of those on the outside looking in. Derby fever should be treated with regular doses of common sense.

Well Said John.....This years Derby contenders are not what I expected to see. Very WEAK....War Pass set the bar so high and then he lost one race. Big deal!!! I still havent seen any real contenders stepping up to take him on that have anything other than a wing and a prayer at beating him. Big Truck got lucky.

The KD will be betweeb War Pass and Pyro. I would really like to see Pyro take it, but can he catch War Pass??????? Does he have the gas to catch that run away train? Maybe, maybe not. But I do have a question. WHO WILL BE THE THIRD PLACE FINISHER? Now thats the race to be looking at.

With Georgie Boy's performance on Saturday I am surprised he has not been talked about more. He obviously showed he could handle two turns and looked impressive galloping out after the wire. He even steadied coming down the stretch and almost ran over Gayego at the 1/16 pole. Yes, he has not beat much but has done everything asked. Him not changing leads could be good or bad in the future, but right now this is the only horse I am excited about so far. War Pass will probably never recover after his last. Yes, he had a bad break and got smacked around a little, but he looked very vulnerable against much weaker competition at Tampa and in a 20 horse field come May he will never be able to last over a 1 1/8 if he can't get a easy lead.

My Top 3 right now have to be:
Pyro
Georgie Boy
Col. John

BOBBY,

yup. yup. Georgie Boy!

Whoever wins the races on the previous weekend is always the best thing since sliced bread! Come on..the next Seattle Slew on next weeks Blog will be the winner of the pending Lanes End? Save yourself all the grief play the following and you will be smiling on the first Saturday in May about 6:15pm.

Denis of Cork / Pyro / All

It is clear as mud

I've been reading a lot of these blogs and the comments left by the fans and I find a lot of the points raised very interesting. But I also find one point not being talked about this year: Up Front Speed! Last year, we had Teuflesburg, Stormello, Hard Spun, and Cowtown Cat. This year we have......(fill in the blank). War Pass is the only speed in the race. Bob Black Jack set the North American record for 6 furlongs 2 races back at 1:06 2/5. Now I know he needed to pace himself more for the San Felipe, but come on! 24, 48, 1:13 and change on a "fast" Santa Anita track. There is no speed this year. War Pass had a throwout race last week just like every other horse has. Pyro in my mind won the 2 Louisiana races thanks to a lack of speed. Yes, he traffic problems in the Risen Star, but he also got the leader to go 6 furlongs in a blistering fast 1:14. He was bound to win if he had any horse left, which he had tons of horse left. 3 horses stand out in my mind. War Pass, because he can smoke and no one else out there can claim they've won 2 grade 1 wons. Denis of Cork, after his impressive Southwest closing from 18 lengths back at the half. And Pyro, despite the slow times in his races, he's improving while most others are showing they don't even want to be in the run for the roses

1) War Pass
2) Denis of Cork
3) Pyro
4) Whoever else can still be trotting across the finish line after 10 furlongs without easing

Also, other than Giacamo (spelling*), when was the last time a California trained horse won the Derby? They all seem to be like Lava Man and don't have much luck outside of California and off synthetic. I'm throwing Georgie Boy and Colonel John out of my picks. They ran too for too fast a track out there.

too slow* for too fast a track

Trainer says Denis Of Cork hates the mud, hope it doesnt rain on derby day..

Mark...the track at SA is a lot slower now than it was earlier in the year. Throw them out because of synthetics and not times. It's too hard to guage the times there unless you compare them to other races on the same day. It's a total mystery whether these horses will translate the form to dirt. That being said Colonel John and El Gato Malo are both bred to be good dirt runners and Georgie boy has run well on all the different synthetic surfaces out west. They have as good a chance to run well on the dirt as you could hope for for horses who have only raced on synthetics. I'm hoping they will translate the form to the dirt to make the big dance all the more enjoyable.

Cdpotato...You are right but it's Exclusive NATIVE. You mixed him up with Elusive Quality who is the sire of Smarty Jones(one of my favourites of all time).

I do agree that you have to compare other times that day, but they were still running 1:08 and 1:09 for six furlongs in allowances that day and the past few weeks. I know the extra added distance means slower pace, but I still think they are going too slow. Other than War Pass, who will want to challenge him for the lead in the Derby? Because you know he'll be running 23, 47, and 1:11 at worst. Hard Spun did it last year and almost took them start to finish. I still don't like the idea though also of no preps on conventional dirt. I think the Blue Grass and Santa Anita are bad ideas for the last prep. Florida and Arkansas are the way to go. It proved for Curlin last year in the Triple Crown and beyond, and Barbaro the year before.

agree about the synthetics and I live and play in Cali almost 90% of the time. However, Colonel John may not be a complete throw out in my opinion. I don't have him in my top 5 right now, but I'm keeping an eye on him. He's bred very well for the derby. didn't Denis of Cork win two back going about 5 wide on/in the mud? I believe it was mid-feb., but could be wrong. Love that horse. Not sure I'm as confident with Leparoux aboard...

Mike, the trainer should make Dennis of Cork stand in mud inside his stall till he like it. Lol

Man my training style would be to take the water hose and wet the horse feet while he stand in mud. Interrogation style! Screaming in the horse ear, "Do you like DOC, I can't hear you! I said do you like it DOC. We are not leaving till you say, I love it, I love it, I live for it"

No time to be timid DOC. DOC would look like Rambo when I would finish with him. Eating wet hay from a mud plate and lovin it.

FASTLANE,

In a gritty performance Denis won a nice allowance race two back on an off track. By all accounts he didn't care for the off going, but won anyway.

That's why Carroll is looking at both the Wood and Ill Derby on 4/5. The weather forecast may dictate which race he chooses.

Not only was it in the slop ut he was 4 wide on both turns....that was the last time Calvin will see his saddle. On the positive side it proves that weather and jockey are obstacles that DOC can overcome. Please tell me that I am mistaken and that Julian isn't his new pilot?

Mark,

There's a buzz horse out East that could give War Pass all he wants on the front end named Big Brown, if he gets in...

CAMCHLOE,

Albarado had a prior commitment to Frankel and Country Star on 4/5. Carroll changed plans with DOC and needed a new jock since Albarado would want to honor his prior commitment, perhaps reluctantly. Leparoux's patient riding style is a good fit with DOC, he can handle the task. However, I would think and hope that Albarado gets the mount back for the Derby.

I'm not a big fan of DOC. Everyone is so high on him, but who has he beaten.

Sierra Sunset is the only rival worth mentioning. But he couldn't handle those Cali 3-year olds in January.

Then you look at Unbridled Vicar. May have finished dead last at Fair Grounds.

So Denis of Cork, not for me.

"Boys, hold your horses!" Don't be so quick to write the epitaph on this crop of 2008 Kentucky Derby Prospects! I think there is still time for a few more horses to step foward. If this was April 20th, then I would agree. I think, however, that a few more will step forward in a big way in the next 4-6 weeks! In some ways, from a bettor's perspective, it might be more renumerative to have the odds spread across 7-10 horses instead a having only 2-3 legitimate favorites. Whoa, boys, there's still a lot more big derby preps to go before we pass judgment on this crop of three-year old colts! Let's have this discussion on April 20th, 2008!

I agree, but will making some "call" April 6th after prep racing has concluded. I have a calendar of workouts that could list some who never do much come race time. The different workout styles the different trainers are taking is interesting to note so far.

Lane

DOC adds up pretty nicely on pedigree and is in there with this year's group on Beyers no matter who he has beaten or not beaten. So far no one is proven enough to know who HAS beaten who. I'll certainly take the 46-1 Pool 1 ticket to the track on May 3rd just in case. :)

Well Lane, I would love to have a 46-1 ticket on him too!

But, I don't consider him #3 on my list as of now as many others do.

Mr. Derby, are you for Sripa horse "What's his name" Tomcito or Big Brown

I confused derbyme
03/20/2008

1:21 pmReport Violation
Mark,

There's a buzz horse out East that could give War Pass all he wants on the front end named Big Brown, if he gets in...

There sure are tons of fans of horses that haven't won a stakes race and it is the end of March? Call me crazy but thats darn crazy.

Yea, it great to have fans believe in something other than a favorite in March Madness.

That how we make our money these days, wagering on the underdog.

That brilliant if you ask me, especially when your winning ching! ching!

Barry,

Not sure what you're asking, but I think that Big Brown probably wires the Florida Derby and probably gives War Pass a heckuva race for 9f before the calvary charge. They may try to take him back, but it's pretty late in the game to be changing tactics. The horse looks like sustainable lightning.

I saw that race at Tampa Bay.The show prices were great,one being $60.00 +.Ever since the superfecta paid 1.7 mil in 2005,it is not who's going to win,but what will the lucky number be for the super.I had a $5.00 ticket in 2005 ,that just missed being correct.I hope the raqce is as 1947,"Jet Pilot",when it appeared the whole field was charging at the finish.So,that's my favorite Derby.