Can Big Brown Deliver The Goods?

John,

If you like Pyro you have to love Big Brown's presence in the race. I do think it helps Pyro and all but eliminates War Pass. Even with War Pass Big Brown should be able to get a great position in the race with his gate speed, so he could run a similar style to Barbaro if he is up to it, up close pressing, then lighting it up down the lane without much traffic to slow him down at any point. Pyro, on the other hand, will have to find room to navigate through a tiring field, and if he is twenty lengths out of it I think he'll need a near perfect ride to get to Big Brown if the new favorite is running his race.

To Me, Big Brown is the best 3 yr old in the country. Im waithing on the final results of Denis of Cork to put a stamp on my decision. War pass was over rated and Pyro is too slow. How can you say his style fits better? He will run into so much traffic around both bends. We know Big Bown Can stalk the pace and explode like a rocket but also take charge and keep an amazing pace. That extra 1/4 mile in the florida derby would have only helped him.

I totally agree with patbateman regarding Big Brown's tactical speed advantage. Everyone seems to be comparing Big Brown to Curlin. Sure, they both would have 3 impressive wins in 3 starts entering the derby, but their running styles are quite different.

I would compare Big Brown more to Barbaro. Both had impressive runaway grass victories. Both won the Florida Derby from wide posts. Both have great tactical speed. And both have the same up and down stride that looks to be best on turf, but works well on both surfaces. Hopefully Big Brown's up and down strides doesn't cause another fracture in the Preakness.

Some of the Big Brown doubters claim that if the superhorse Curlin couldn't get the job done in the derby, what are the odds Big Brown can? I personally think the talent level of the 3 year olds this year is average to slightly above average. Last year's talented crop of 3 year olds was the highest I've seen in years. Plus, Curlin just wasn't as fast out of the gate as what people thought, which caused him to steady badly entering the first turn, pretty much eliminating him from the race.

If you watch Big Brown's races, he seems like a horse who will be able to get good position near the lead. That will help him avoid the chaos that usually occurs in the derby to mid-pack horses, forcing some of them 12 wide into the stretch. I see Pyro weaving his way between horses, most likely going a little wide since Borel isn't on board, only to get a minor prize. I love Pyro and think he will be a good horse in the future, but what Big Brown's accomplished so far is amazing.

Even Barbaro was able to cut across entering the first turn from the 10 post last year in the Florida Derby, but could only barely beat a mediocre Sharp Humor. For some reason, even when horses are able to save some ground entering the first turn from a wide post going 1-1/8 at Gulfstream, they usually don't have anything left in the stretch. That's what makes Big Brown's performance so impressive. Plus, take Smooth Air out of the race and Big Brown wins by 12 lengths. Then everyone would be handing him the derby trophy.

I hope people continue to question his ability and I can get him at 5-2 in the derby. Those odds may be far too low for some people to bet, but I will be all over it. Big Brown looks like he can run all day and should only get stronger and more mature between now and the derby.

what can BROWN DO FOR ME? NOTHING!!!!! JUST SOME MORE HYPE.ANOTHER SUCKER FOR SUCKERS.DOES ANY ONE HONESLY THINK THAT BROWN WILL BE LEFT ALONE ON THE FRONT END LIKE THAT IN K.D. GIVE ME A BREAK. HE STINKS OF HARD SPUN.HE WON'T HIT THE BOARD IN THE K.D. HE WILL NOT! I REPEAT HE WILL NOT! GET THE TRIP HE GOT IN THE FLORIDA DERBY IN THE K.D.

Hard Spun almost won the Kentucky Derby, and finished 2nd well ahead of Curlin, lil brother. It took a miracle run by SS on the rail to catch HS. He was pulling away from that field. There is no closer in this race like Street Sense. So much for that analogy.

GULSFSTREAM IS NOTHING BUT A SPEED FAVORING TRACK, WHEN YOU GO TO THE FRONT YOUR SUPPOSE TO WIN LIKE THAT..HE DID LOOK GREAT BUT 20 HORSES AROUND HIM AT CHURCHILL WILL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY AND A 1 1/4 ALSO...IS HE GONNA CLEAR FROM POST 19 LIKE THAT? IF HE HAPPENS TO DRAW BAD...IF YOU THINK HES THAT GRAT YOU SHOULD HAMMER HIM IN POOL 3 BECAUSE I WOULD LIKE SOME ODDS ON A FEW HORSES I LIKE THANKS

With his speed out of the gate, he shouldn't have much of a problem since there will be little competition for the front. An outside post in his case could be advantageous... less likely to get pinched. He found his way inside at Gulfstream, he would have the entire stretch at CD to do it.

Mike,

The run from post 20 is barely further than the run on the rail at 10f at Churchill, ask Pythagrius. A squared.... Outside is better probably better than inside. Curlin may have won the Derby with an outside run. I'd be more worried about Big Brown drawing inside and stumbling like he did in his big allowance score, then dropping to the rear (like Curlin) and finding traffic. Big Brown (like Curlin) seems to prefer an outside run where he can utilize his giant Curlin-like strides, rather than using quickness or agility like Street Sense or Afleet Alex liked to do.

BTW, between Big Browns power piston stride and Tomcito's egg beatering, that was one odd looking stretch run.

Geronimo...I think you are right about Hard Spun and almost winning with the luck of Street Sense and Bo"rail". But I disagree about there being no closers in the KD. I think there are 2 very big ones. Pyro, since the pace will be fast, and my longshot, Blackberry Road. Not to mention, Blackberry Road will have the right jockey on him for the race in Calvin Borel. He's already ran 3 solid races at Churchill, especially the Jockey Club. Only lost by a half length and after closing from 15 lengths back. Now I know BBR isn't the same quality horse as Street Sense, but I think a lot of people are throwing the towel in on him. If he wins the Arkansas Derby, he's getting my money on him on a decent size "win" ticket on Derby day. I think Big Brown and War Pass will run a fast pace, wear each other down, and the closers will make their move and one of them will get a clean trip, and I'll take Borel over Bridgmohan any day of the week.

derbyme,

Yes, it does seem that Big Brown prefers to take turns wide like Curlin does, but he has much better gate speed than Curlin had at this time last year and should be able to get good position in a 20 horse field, barring a stumble at the gate of course. He broke very well in the Florida Derby and muscled his way to the front as Nistle's Crunch was very tight in between. Big Brown probably wont convince everyone of his greatness quite yet, do to many people believing Gulfstream has a speed bias. I'd say Gulfstream favors speed more than other tracks, but I have seen quite a few closers win races there too. I'm just saying, winning from the 12 post at 1-1/8 miles at Gulfstream is almost impossible to do, and he won by 5. Sure, many will question what kind of horses he beat, but that's what they said about Barbaro's performance too. With only 3 races under his belt, he should improve. Anything can happen in a 20 horse field, but if everything goes as planned, he should win by a comfortable margin.

Let's talk about a horse who made a return to the track last Saturday.

In his first race since the Juvenile, Salute the Sarge won the San Miguel at Santa Anita in runaway fashion, defeating 2 stakes winners at 3y in Leonides and Sea of Pleasure.

He already has the graded earnings to make the field on May 3rd. Trainer Eric Gulliot and company will point him towards the Lexington Stakes as his final derby prep.

The hope is that he can stretch out as many feel he is simply a sprinter. His pedigree says sprinter, but if you look deeper Storm Cat/Secretariat are found on his sire's side while the great Mr. Prospector is on the dam's side. This is proof that he may be able to go longer and if he can he may be a derby contender.

The last derby winner to come out of the Lexington Stakes was Charasmatic in 1999 who nearly won the Triple Crown. He also shipped from Santa Anita to Keeneland that year for his final prep. Another interesting comparison- Charasmatic's Grand Sire is Storm Bird- Great-grand Sire of Salute the Sarge.

I must say I was impressed with Big Brown all the way! To me he looked as if he'd developed 6 months of muscle and running style since his last start. He looks like a star and is set to change the face of the Derby. No doubt with War pass and Big Brown in the Louisville field - there will be a torrid pace up front. This, of course, is contingent upon War Pass blazing to the front on Saturday and winning soundly. All us Pyro fans should root for him to bounce back. Pyro deserves a rematch!!
Fortunately for Big Brown's connections he is no one-trick pony (sorry War Pass) but the temptation to avoid trouble will have him sitting just back of War Pass, pressing the pace and setting things up perfectly for Shaun to guide Pyro along the fence and hit the top of the stretch with just a few tiring speedsters between him and the treasured roses!!
Just call me a pyromaniac!
www.pyroderby.com

Well Big Brown is the new star of the day. War Pass and Pyro are still a bright star. They all have performed extremely well in their races.

But the Kentucky Derby is the universe and which horse is set to go "Super Nova"

100 plus beyers cannot be ignored, only the top three has achieve this mark on dirt tracks, in a distance race.

Everyone else are slightly behind the numbers. The west coast horse are consider a mystery. I personally believe, they are 100 caliber and was validated by the injured Sierra Sunset performance recently. SS is not in the top five out west for sure.

So I expect the Santa Anita Derby winner to run hugh and put up 100 beyers numbers this weekend if the pace is hot up front. Your only question, is to trust the surface!

Once again, till you beat the champ he remains the champ. Recent works by War Pass say's he sitting on a great performance under wraps in the Wood prep.

Pyro, should consider skipping his final prep and train directly to the Derby, Fresher the better! Steve is hot with Curlin, and remember, these two trained together all winter.

Which star is shining the brightest, edge to PYRO! and or Colonel John if wins the Santa Anita Derby impressively.

Everyone may think Big Brown can rate off War Pass, But not from what I witness this weekend, Big Brown race down the back stretch was not a control run to the turn.

This horse must have the lead and so must War Pass down the back stretch. It's a shame two talented horse must fight over the first path at Churchill Downs. At least we all can see a 1 mile match race of Kentucky Derby Day. That may be the real race of the day. But for the final two furlong, look elsewhere and pass the morning star glory! and into the PYRO Nebula!

Barry,

I disagree. I think it remains to be seen whether Big Brown can rate. I also believe it remains to be seen whether he has too.

On another note, my top pick Georgie Boy is off the derby trail. Once again, I am left looking for another.

why do people all of a sudden think Big Brown is a pace setter? Because he had one race on the lead (which he had to in order to overcome post 12)? Yall are forgetting he sat well back in his maiden and allowance race and then hit the strech like a rocket! If War Pass does make it to the derby and goes to the lead, im sure Kent D. wont be afraid to sit 2 or 3 lenghts off and let War Pass run himself in the ground!!

Just throwing this one out there, but what about Court Vision on May 3rd? I know he is racing in the Wood and should be better than his last, but don't think he can beat War Pass at 9 furlongs. However, 10 furlongs + 3 start off a layoff could be a different story. Not to mention, his odds will be HUGE on Derby day? Thoughts?

I do think BB's performance was awesome, but side with Mike about Derby day. It will be a different story on May 3rd when he gets bumped from every direction and shuffled back. I have a feeling he will come on late like Curlin did last year to pick up the pieces. Don't get me wrong, he looks to be immensely talented, but looks rather shy on the experience end. Of course, he could make all of us look bad and win by 10, but I am leaning elsewhere.

Time to be real,

Big Brown's performance was all of that and a bag of chips. He was 0.37 seconds outside of the track record in his third lifetime start after breaking from post 12! I don't see him getting bumped at all in Louisville. He breaks well and has too much speed to get into trouble. I will agree somewhat with Barry that it is a concern that he will duel War Pass for the lead. In the allowance race he only stalked for a little while and that was off a blistering early pace. He's going to be 1-2 early on in the Derby for sure. It's going to be a bit of cat and mouse with Cornelio and Kent early on and that does set up well for horses like Pyro, Denis of Cork and Colonel John(if he likes the dirt and i think he will being by Tiznow). War Pass IS GOING TO go for the lead. We all know that after Tampa. Big Brown is likely going to drag Kent there too. But I think Big Brown is going to drop War Pass turning for home and hold off the closers. I think he's good enough that though he'll be up front he won't be "fighting" for the lead like I think War Pass will be. He'll just be there cause he's that fast and he'll be doing it easily. I only see him getting better. I just hope he doesn't get injured because he's really some kind of freak.

I was a big Street Sense fan last year but I'll be the first to admit that if Curlin had more speed out of the gate that he probably would have won. Big Brown doesn't have that problem. I think the 5 weeks between races is perfect for him because of being lightly raced. He's a horse that doesn't need much work and I'm sure he got enough "foundation" from the Florida Derby. If he's a little tired from the race he'll have the time to recover and come again. He's certainly answered all of my questions. I doubted once but I won't ever again. Sorry in advance to all those who won't bet him to win in Kentucky cause that money will be as good as buried under some Big Brown dirt!

Big Brown will NOT be up on the lead with War Pass in the Derby, Dutrow has confirmed this. He has said that he wants to be sitting in the head of the second pack (4th or 5th) probably on the outside to keep the dirt out of his face. Even if they draw second last, they will take post 20 over 1. I think he will run the same style of race Barbaro ran, sitting off pacesetters and pouncing at the top of the stretch. Kent D is smart, he has won this race before so he knows what he is doing. I just hope he stays healthy. Fingers crossed.

Everyone should watch his maiden win. He ran his last 5/16 of a mile in 28 and change, 28 and change in his first start, with his last 1/16 in less than 6. That is unreal. 30 is good but you have to be impressed with that. I think Pyro has this kind of speed and love him but I dont think he has the speed to be close enough to stay out of traffic and then come with his run. definately in the money.

MarkHoeft,

What I meant by there are no closers like Street Sense in the year's Derby, I meant no
push-button types that can weave in and out of traffic and thread opponents coming off of the rail...I agree that there are closers like Pyro, Court Vision, and do not forget El Gato Malo and Colonel John. Their closing times for the last furlong in the Sham were good. And yes, if BBR can somehow get in I agree "Little Street" may be best at 10f. That horse has had some bad racing luck.

Curlin was the best 3 year old and best horse last year, but tactical speed and the ability to control the pace are very underrated. Everyone acts like the only time Curlin finished behind Hard Spun was in the Derby, when he was "green", but Curlin also could not run down Hard Spun at 9f in the Haskell (when they were both suffering from Triple Crown fatigue). Street Sense could not catch HS in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway, and he could not catch HS in the BC Classic (SS was way behind HS at the wire). My point is only that tactical speed is, if nothing else, a consistent threat.

Save your money go to the store and buy a ball, and when you get home bounce it as high as you can in your driveway because thats what BB is gonna do..Brisnet gave him a 110 do you honestly think hes gonna run back to that i doubt it...He is an awesome horse but i just think a 1 1/4 isnt up his alley..

Turf is not Dirt.

No disagreement cdP, did you see the 12 race of the day, They actually set the track record at the same distance. 1:47 and change, and the winner will probably earn 115 beyers. No way is the winner a 115 horse. The track was playing terribly fast and the lack of competition made a false image of Big Brown ability to the general public. Justin has been sold! I ask him to wake up and stop watching the same video.

Waiting to see if someone is willing to talk about the track record being broken just 30 min later. by a 75,000 optional claimer type race.

Hope I didn't hurt anyone feeling, just don't sell the farm quiet yet! Draw a line thru 2-the field in the Florida Derby. Million dollar race are not won by 1st to 3rd (13 lengths) unless the field has some below caliber horses.

Barry,

When I read Justin's latest, he didn't seem sold on BB to me. I understand your argument with the 12th race at GP that day. I'll consider it but it won't be the main factor in why I won't back him. I just can't back a horse, no matter how good, who ran once in Sept. as a 2 year old, and twice as a 3 year old. To me he doesn't have the proper seasoning/foundation to win the Derby. Others disagree with me... that's fine... we'll see come Derby day. But BB is a beautiful specimen and his FLA Derby win from the 12 hole was very impressive. Come on Barry, you have to concede that.

Barry,

I addressed Electrify's electrifying win in the other blog. Horse has won 5 of his last seven all by open lengths with one polytrack flop. 10 wins 22 starts. Yes track was souped up, yes you can question competition that actually ran their races, but you can't really say anything negative about Big Brown. Also, tiring courses like Gulfstream routes tend to spread runners out. Lots of open length winners all year at GP. She's All Eltish won by a bunch, Electrify won by 7 I believe...

Track was faster than usual, but fairer than usual that day also. That said, you just don't win from outside posts 9f at GP. It doesn't happen.

when that hore set the record in the 12th race he is an older horse so y compare?

How many horses at Gulfstream this year ran awesome and came back and flopped there next race???? A ton

Big Brown's final time was a full second faster than Barbaro, Empire Maker, and Scat Daddy. Breaking from post 12 he won under a hand ride. If Barbaro won Derby by 7 lengths then Big Brown wins by 10 under a hand ride.