Justin's Derby Top 10 List of Insanity

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We are getting close to that time of year. Derby Top 10 lists will begin appearing in every racing publication, every racing website, and every blog. This blog will follow suit, sort of.

What makes my Top 10 list different? Well, my list will not consist of a single actual horse. Instead, this list will be made up of qualities usually found in Derby hopefuls this time of year.

Here. I’ll show you.

#10 is a Florida-bred who has a sprinter’s pedigree, but he has an impressive win at two turns as a juvenile. Thus, his connections, as well as racing fans, think he might be a factor on the Derby Trail.

#9 broke his maiden at Keeneland, and then ran well in defeat at Churchill in his next start. Maybe that was a stakes race, but maybe not. He has yet to run since. Expectations for his three-year-old debut are high, and he hails from a well-regarded barn.

#8 looked like he would be a factor in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he skipped that race, perhaps due to injury, perhaps to avoid a grueling juvenile campaign. He showed up late in the year, and ran well enough to merit inclusion on this list.

#7 is the sneaky horse on the list. He has yet to break his maiden, but he has kept good company and run well every time. Savvy bettors have already played him at juicy odds to win the Derby in Vegas.

#6 danced every dance last year. He won some and lost some. His class alone makes him part of this list, but he is probably not going to be on this list come spring.

#5 was once higher on this list, but he lost his last start. Still, excuses can be made for that effort, and he is one to watch. His connections make him a bigger factor than he otherwise would be, and he looks like he might be a miler.

#4 has the right connections, the right race resume, and he likes to come from off the pace. Distance will not be a problem on Derby Day, and his speed figures look legit.

#3 won a fall stakes at Churchill Downs. Need I say more?

#2 is undefeated and has the look of one who will only get better with distance. He has not faced the toughest of the tough, but he will probably be favored when he does.

#1 is whoever the list maker picked to win the Derby last fall.

Now, what I want to know is can any of you match the above qualities to actual horses on the Derby Trail?

Ready. Set. Go!

Join the Discussion

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allatime

01/13/2008 10:53 am

Justin:

You have learned the Derby Prep game well...
#10 - Wise Answer or Smooth Air
#9 - Macho Again
#8- Dixie Chatter
#7 -Sangaree
#6 - Pyro or Kodiak Cowboy
#5 - Tale of Ekati
#4 - Majestic Warrior
#3 - Court Vision
#2 - El Gato Malo
#1 - Etched

mike27ohio

01/15/2008 3:18 pm

Justin so glad you are back, glad to see the blogs are back up. Your one from last year we got up to about 672 thats awesome...Dude we are on the same page i love Etched as my #1 pick i was worried about his 4.14 dosage but i do know Forestry will tear up the track anywhere...my #2 is Liutenant Ron hes a maiden winner with a huge figure but it was in the slop so will just have to see......Happy New Year and once again WELCOME BACK!!

mike barker

01/15/2008 3:40 pm

sorry that was my blog up above not sure where that name came from

jill

01/15/2008 5:28 pm

Etched has little to no shot if he does the Dubai route , which I gather he is already over there. I liked him up until then.

battfist

01/16/2008 9:43 pm

Can someone share with me why Tale of Ekati might be a miler? I think he can go the 1 1/4...but Im no pro.

Creative Top 10 there...

justindew

01/17/2008 12:31 pm

battfist,

I think "allatime" was suggesting that Tale of Ekati was a potential match for the characteristics that I listed for the #5 horse on my imaginary list. Tale of Ekati might be able to go 10 furlings, but both of his wins to this point have been sprinting. Also, he had a wide trip in his only effort around two turns, so he had an excuse, whioh matches another characteristic.

battfist

01/17/2008 7:53 pm

I do see what you are saying(My ignorance in my young handicapping experience is that I look for sprinters in those horses who quit in distance races).

I believe Barclay Tagg would of scratched Tale of Ekati Breeders Cup day if he had already raced around two-turns. Besides the weather... Tagg didnt like the post position. Like you said Justin he had an excuse. Also, reading about how Mr. Tagg cared for Tale of Ekati's shins remind me of Funny Cide....does it for anybody else?